UK UK - Corrie McKeague, 23, Bury St Edmunds, 24 September 2016 #7

[SOMETHINGWILLDO]

Hello folks!
Only feeling more human now & catching up on all the posts as best as my fragile head will let me [emoji40] (all fun and games until the next day!)
Anyway,
I've noticed there was a "missing hour" if Corrie was picked up at 3.35am before his phone pinged in a different area. I have 2 thoughts on this -
If he left at 3.35am what was he doing in that area (due to phone mast pings) for an hour before leaving? Hook up with someone in the car OR is it a possibility that him & the driver picked up more people in the area to go to a party elsewhere?


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[MidsummersDay]

I've touched on the puppy before. I don't think it's unusual to intentionally leave it overnight in a safe place.

I think it is strange to leave it a whole weekend however if we were working with Corrie intentionally leaving and not coming back (awol) you could argue he isn't thinking logically, or that he felt the puppy would be better off, that it would be found by colleagues and well cared for, maybe even that he intends to go back for the dog.

I just don't think the puppy gives any indication to be honest either way.

Leaving it overnight isn't necessarily a problem. Over the weekend maybe....UNLESS there was sufficient food left to cover the whole weekend. In which case that suggested either a long weekend is planned OR intentional AWOL.
I'm still going for the unintentional AWOL angle at the moment.

 

[MidsummersDay]

Ok cheers. I've had dog walking and animal feeding to do also had to go in to town so double checked my journey. Very little traffic, sunday tea time, quite frosty, journey both ways was 8 miles and 20 mins so is 24mph, same as Girl. So what happened about the possible hour between the two mast pings? I can't read the new map. Was 0400 incorrect for the last BSE mast ping?

The 0400 that I stated is wrong an was based on family reports. The latest time is again based on family reports of leaving the BSE mast area at 0430 approx.

 

[Amonet]

As a Police Officer, Nicola must be well aware of providing factual information. I therefore don't buy the fact that his walking home was an assumption based on comments from lads at the base.
If this was the case then surely the reply would be 'I am told by his friends at the base that he did walk back'.

I remember seeing another statement which I can't comment on as not certain where I read it.

While you would think so, Nicola may have been coached to talk in certainties instead of talking in hearsay. There was some mention (I don't remember if it was here or somewhere that was linked to and I followed the link) of Nicola scratching her nose and biting her lip around this time in press conference, and that could be easily explained if she was repeating hearsay and wasn't completely comfortable making it sound like she knew this personally for a fact. Of course, Nicola may have had an itchy nose and bit her lip to try and stop herself crying, but there was also a pause when she spoke about this subject and if she wasn't 100% comfortable repeating hearsay as if she personally knew it for fact, then that could also lead to a pause in speech...maybe?


I don't know how important any of this is. It's another example of information that seems to go both way and we can't be certain because of changing facts. If Corrie was picked up from the loading bay by a vehicle, then does it matter? If we add it to the timings of the phone pings, then could we be looking at Corrie getting a lift back to the Honington area and something goes wrong, then the driver turns around and drives an incapacitated Corrie to the Barton Mills mast area? Or could Corrie have evaded the CCTV to get onto Cannon St and then got a lift on the outer road but missed by CCTV, because Corrie was actually intending to walk home and had started to walk home?

I am getting a sense, in writing these last two posts, that Corrie wasn't heading to Barton Mills/Mildenhall and that he was either heading back home, or got a lift from someone who lives in the BSE area back to their place.

 

[Shiressleuth]

Of course the drugs is a theory although there is absolutely no evidence to support this theory in that nothing has been said by anyone that he was a drug user. However, its an odd time to be scoring drugs isn't it 3.30am after you have been out. Also, its apparent he's quite drunk so surely the thinking that he could get busted would surely happen in the cold light of day when he is sober not whilst still intoxicated, I doubt repercussions of behaviour would cross his mind in that state and we know that he didn't return to the barracks so for me this isn't it.

not late by young peoples standards as we have heard and he had drank the booze that may have been intended for the party, so perhaps he didn't want to turn up empty handed as has been speculated before I think. The night was still young with the whole weekend ahead at this stage. JMO. The phone ping of 0430 seems late for him to be leaving the outskirts of BSE doesn't it? Assuming thats at the 3 mile point from the mast, that could only be walking pace couldn't it as he was in town centre at 0330. That's a slow vehicle. This ping at 0430 could indicate he did walk out.

 

[Shiressleuth]

The 0400 that I stated is wrong an was based on family reports. The latest time is again based on family reports of leaving the BSE mast area at 0430 approx.

Is there another source, police for example, this seems a crucial point now, which could indicate how he left BSE?

 

[TheTruthWillOut]

0430am - Corrie's phone leaves the BSE mast area (approx 5km radius).
0458am - Corri's phone enters the BM mast area (approx 5km radius).
0800am (approx) - Last signal from Corrie's phone in BM mast area.

Its important to not that the speed of a HGV/LGV (bin lorry) would be recorded on the tachograph uplink. Also, on A roads by law it would be limited to a maximum speed of 40mph so an over speed (speeding) would be registered as an illegality and flagged up).
Additionally, bare in mind the radius of the mast 'signal acceptance' area. Just because BSE is 12 miles from BM doesn't mean to say that the signal has to travel that far. The total distance of 12 miles, minus signal acceptance areas of 3 miles each (6 miles) means the signal ONLY has to travel 6 miles to register from one to the other.

Is it a fact the BSE mast was a micro mast the same as BM? Reason I ask is BSE has a much bigger population to serve than BM and would think it would have a higher power/capacity mast(s)?

Like I say I'm trying to determine if the phone gets switched to another mast as soon as it crosses the 5km threshold no matter what or e.g. it sticks to the (more powerful, longer range?) BSE mast until much closer to the micro mast at BM?

The speed limit for HGV's was raised to 50mph in April 2015. I don't think this would have made much, if any, difference though?

 

[MelmothTheLost]

The 0400 that I stated is wrong an was based on family reports. The latest time is again based on family reports of leaving the BSE mast area at 0430 approx.

So having cleared that point up, we are now left with a little over an hour between Corrie entering the Horseshoe at 3.25am and his phone leaving the BSE mast area at around 4.30am.

We then have the half hour unaccounted for between 4.30am when his phone left the BSE mast and 4.58am when it made contact with the BM mast.

THEN we have three hours between that point and the cessation of phone activity at 8am.

There are altogether too many time periods still unaccounted for.

 

[Shiressleuth]

So going with the current pings we have corrie walking out of BSE and at 3 mph he is heading for mildenhall (party) probably by the shortest route hoping to get a lift. At the 3 mile point his phone detaches from the mast and is next detected 3 miles approx from mildenhall 28 minutes later. He must have got his lift in the phone dead zone.

 

[MelmothTheLost]

So going with the current pings we have corrie walking out of BSE and at 3 mph he is heading for mildenhall (party) probably by the shortest route hoping to get a lift. At the 3 mile point his phone detaches from the mast and is next detected 3 miles approx from mildenhall 28 minutes later. He must have got his lift in the phone dead zone.

So if I understand you, your suggestion is that Corrie waited for a lift to the party, went to the Horseshoe to pick up his lift, no lift turned up so he started walking?

Because if so, that's about 12 miles from BSE to BM and another mile or so further to Mildenhall - more than 4 hours at 3mph. 3 hours if he walks at 4mph

Setting off at, say, 3.45am (allowing a bit of time hanging around for the non-appearing lift) he probably wouldn't arrive until around 6.45am at the earliest or 7.45am at the latest if he has to walk all the way.

I admit I know nothing about parties but is that likely?

 

[Polo]

So if I understand you, your suggestion is that Corrie waited for a lift to the party, went to the Horseshoe to pick up his lift, no lift turned up so he started walking?

Because if so, that's about 12 miles from BSE to BM and another mile or so further to Mildenhall - more than 4 hours at 3mph. 3 hours if he walks at 4mph

Setting off at, say, 3.45am (allowing a bit of time hanging around for the non-appearing lift) he probably wouldn't arrive until around 6.45am at the earliest or 7.45am at the latest if he has to walk all the way.

I admit I know nothing about parties but is that likely?

I personally don't think that a party is relevant. Who turns up to a party after 4am? Normally you would go to a pub first and the latest anyone would normally turn up is after the pubs close.

 

[Shiressleuth]

So going with the current pings we have corrie walking out of BSE and at 3 mph he is heading for mildenhall (party) probably by the shortest route hoping to get a lift. At the 3 mile point his phone detaches from the mast and is next detected 3 miles approx from mildenhall 28 minutes later. He must have got his lift in the phone dead zone.

Total distance between BSE and BM is 11 miles up the A1101. So for the phone to then travel 8 miles in 28 minutes part walking part in a vehicle would put the pick up by vehicle at around Flempton. Perhaps he missed his lift as has been suggested? He got to the horse shoe an then started walking to mildenhall not honington, up the A1101. Perhaps his lift came back to get him along that road and he said I'll start walking, which is what you would do after laying around unintentionally for 2 hours and missing out. It fits the phone pings but still doesn't explain what happened after that. There must be other vehicles that activated the motion cctv so it would be about 10 mins after the phone ping that the vehicle would arrive at that cctv location so about 05.08 would be my estimate. Does this make sense? It's not exact but I also notice the river Lark crosses the A1101 at Lackford but I don't think his walking would have got him that far.

 

[MidsummersDay]

So if I understand you, your suggestion is that Corrie waited for a lift to the party, went to the Horseshoe to pick up his lift, no lift turned up so he started walking?

Because if so, that's about 12 miles from BSE to BM and another mile or so further to Mildenhall - more than 4 hours at 3mph. 3 hours if he walks at 4mph

Setting off at, say, 3.45am (allowing a bit of time hanging around for the non-appearing lift) he probably wouldn't arrive until around 6.45am at the earliest or 7.45am at the latest if he has to walk all the way.

I admit I know nothing about parties but is that likely?

Exceptionally unlikely in my mind. If it's a toss up between walking 10 miles to bed or 12 miles plus 2 miles to a 'possible' party that's 'could' still be in mid flow....I'd go for the first option.
besides, it's been catagorically stated by the family (pass the salt shaker please) that it was impossible to walk out without being seen AND CCTV has been looked at upto 1600 on that Saturday.

Again, he would need to accomplish a fast egress from the Horseshoe area to avoid CCTV cameras and sightings. Observational limitation if you will. Remember, he only needs to get away from the centre. The vehicle could quite feasibly sit on the outskirts (within the 3 mile BSE mast area) of BSE and transgress the limits of that mast radius at 0430. It's then a 12mph ride to the border of the next mast area at BM at 0458.
These mast area footprints aren't an exact science as all sorts of considerations like trees, hills, dips, valleys, ridges etc make the signal strength variable.
Incidently, as one or two of you have quite rightly picked up on, I have posted images stating timings according to the promulgations of the family. Interestingly the press, police, third parties and the family ALL have different timings. Make of that what you will, but I always take the last statement as the definitive.

 

[MelmothTheLost]

I personally don't think that a party is relevant. Who turns up to a party after 4am? Normally you would go to a pub first and the latest anyone would normally turn up is after the pubs close.

I was thinking through shiressleuth's idea of him setting off to walk on the route taken by his phone. I can't imagine setting off to walk 12+ miles at gone 3.30am unless it was to walk home in extremis, but it's an idea to explore, no matter how briefly.

Obviously it doesn't make sense to me, but then we're expected to accept that Corrie does strange things like drinking in his car in a town centre, getting thrown out of clubs, eating large amounts of junk food in the early hours and then sleeping it off in a doorway. In that context, deciding to walk 12 miles to a party to arrive in time for the fry-up does almost sound like Corrie as depicted by the family.

However that would require him to evade the apparently unevadeable CCTV around the Horseshoe and all other CCTV until he clears the main built-tp area of BSE.

 

[Amonet]

Or maybe he nodded off (or passed out, as most people would describe it!), as has been said all along, then called a taxi when he woke up?

My only issue with a phone/app booked taxi is that if there was anything taxi-like in the CCTV, surely the police would have checked the local firms to get details of bookings in that time and in that area?

You'd have to check for the source, I think it might be in the early police updates on the Suffolk constabulary site...it did say they had made inquiries with the taxi companies as one of the first things they did.

 

[Amonet]

Also if it was planned better to go missing on the fri/sat as he didn't have to be on duty till the mon just don't think he would have left the puppy.

Even if he left the puppy behind to be looked after by his mates, I don't think he'd have gone without his car and a bag of clothes stuck in the boot. Instead of going out for a drink, just drive straight off base and don't come back.

I realise that people are thinking maybe he got depressed as the night wore on, but I still think he could have gone back for a nap and then gone AWOL on Saturday afternoon with the car and some clothes.

And if you were already thinking of not coming back, then why lock the puppy in the bathroom? If you're not coming back, then it doesn't matter if the puppy messes in the bedroom, and then there's more chance of someone hearing the puppy barking and getting access to it sooner. I will admit that someone who's had quite a bit to drink might not be thinking of their puppy. But someone who's got existing sadness/depression will be more likely to attach to the animal and would think about its wellbeing.

 

[eeejay268]

Lots of guests this evening <waves>

 

[Shiressleuth]

I'm saying he walked/jogged part of the way perhaps 3-4 miles knowing someone was coming back for him after kipping thru his first lift and missing it. That evening has been about corrie catching up all night on the action seemingly. He would be miffed at missing out I would think. With all the misinformation I would rather base things on verified police info but this phone pinging is an hour after corrie entered the bin area seemingly. No other mode of transport would get him three miles in an hour other than walking. He may then have even hitched a lift if no one was coming back for him but he travelled the next 8 miles in 28 minutes after the initial 3 miles in an hour or his phone did. Corrie/the phone stayed attached to the BM mast for the following 3 hours. It may not have been a party but that is what the phone records show. This seems more feasible than he rode a bin lorry or he fell in a bin lorry. What bin lorry moves at 3 mph? I know this isn't exact but it's just a theory.

 

[Mel F]

Even if he left the puppy behind to be looked after by his mates, I don't think he'd have gone without his car and a bag of clothes stuck in the boot. Instead of going out for a drink, just drive straight off base and don't come back.

I realise that people are thinking maybe he got depressed as the night wore on, but I still think he could have gone back for a nap and then gone AWOL on Saturday afternoon with the car and some clothes.

And if you were already thinking of not coming back, then why lock the puppy in the bathroom? If you're not coming back, then it doesn't matter if the puppy messes in the bedroom, and then there's more chance of someone hearing the puppy barking and getting access to it sooner. I will admit that someone who's had quite a bit to drink might not be thinking of their puppy. But someone who's got existing sadness/depression will be more likely to attach to the animal and would think about its wellbeing.

If you are going AWOL you would never take your car unless you want to be found before you barely have time to leave the county.

 

[MelmothTheLost]

If you are going AWOL you would never take your car unless you want to be found before you barely have time to leave the county.

True. Apparently every police car in the country is equipped with ANPR.