Found Deceased UK - Nicola Bulley, 45, last seen walking her dog on footpath by the river, Inskip, Lancashire, 27 Jan 2023

[MsMiniSleuth]

The phone on the bench is concerning. Stopped to listen, sit and then she has put it down to attend to whatever has grabbed her attention.

... or someone who has grabbed her?

 

[tedtink]

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Thanks shadwell. Could you estimate distance from the road Bridge to the bench please?

"Supt Sally Riley appealed to anyone who was driving through St Michael’s at around 9.15am on January 27 to examine their dashcam footage to see if they had captured Nicola as she began her walk on the road bridge over the river."

I assume it's this road bridge the Police are referring to?

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[Sweeper2000]

Just walking on rivers myself I would say a corner on the bend as noted in the picture in post 178. tends to have quite steep banks. Just guessing as well, that doesn’t look like a particularly deep stretch.

 

[Lucy6226]

The thing is we have a veritable short time period in which she went missing - 45 minutes from when she was last sighted, there, to the dog being found there too.

I was wondering if you meant left by a random stranger or by someone she knew or was at least acquainted with.

It is a very short time period. But not impossible if well planned.

 

[MsMiniSleuth]

How deep is the river?

In the picture in post #168 there's a sign saying 'Danger Deep Water'.

Will vary, deeper patches tend to correlate with a narrowing. Judging by the pics and as is generally the case in small land rivers, anything from 1 to 3 feet depending on rainfall Which it could then go to about five.

Absolutely. What was the weather like last Friday there? Presumably fine if she was sitting on a bench.

I can vouch for the river. I live literally next to a stream, and while in fine weather the water may be no more than a foot high, come bad storms and days of rain it can rise another 7 or 8 feet, sometimes more very quickly, flooding our lower garden and last year drowning the batch of chicks our resident moorhens had had.

But I digress...

 

[Lucy6226]

Thanks shadwell. Could you estimate distance from the road Bridge to the bench please?

"Supt Sally Riley appealed to anyone who was driving through St Michael’s at around 9.15am on January 27 to examine their dashcam footage to see if they had captured Nicola as she began her walk on the road bridge over the river."

I assume it's this road bridge the Police are referring to?

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Dash cam footage...to prove she definitely started the walk, to see if she was with anyone else or being followed, I wonder? I hope someone can provide footage, loads of cars have dash cams now

 

[Nikynoo]

I am wondering who saw Nicola and where. The reports are confusing. It appears that she was last seen BEFORE starting her walk?

ETA police have reported that she was seen by a member of the public on the towpath about 9.15am.

 

[Officer Dibble]

Thanks shadwell. Could you estimate distance from the road Bridge to the bench please?

"Supt Sally Riley appealed to anyone who was driving through St Michael’s at around 9.15am on January 27 to examine their dashcam footage to see if they had captured Nicola as she began her walk on the road bridge over the river."

I assume it's this road bridge the Police are referring to?

Google Maps

Find local businesses, view maps and get driving directions in Google Maps.

www.google.com

Or to see if anyone else was going that way. JMO

 

[shadwell]

Thanks shadwell. Could you estimate distance from the road Bridge to the bench please?

"Supt Sally Riley appealed to anyone who was driving through St Michael’s at around 9.15am on January 27 to examine their dashcam footage to see if they had captured Nicola as she began her walk on the road bridge over the river."

I assume it's this road bridge the Police are referring to?

Google Maps

Find local businesses, view maps and get driving directions in Google Maps.

www.google.com

400 metres by the most direct route along footpaths (see below) - but with a couple of caveats re timing: if she was on the way out on the walk, the distance might be slightly less - fitness tracker info suggests she is inclined to cut out the ‘dog leg’ in the middle and go direct. Also, she may have been on the way back from walking a loop to the East when she arrived at the bench (see tracker info reconstructions upthread).

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[tedtink]

Dash cam footage...to prove she definitely started the walk, to see if she was with anyone else or being followed, I wonder? I hope someone can provide footage, loads of cars have dash cams now

Or to see if anyone else was going that way. JMO

Yes, that's why the Police is asking for it obvs, but my question was for @shadwell to estimate the distance between the river bridge and the bench, just out of interest, to estimate how long it might have taken for NB to walk to that point.

 

[tedtink]

400 metres by the most direct route along footpaths (see below) - but with a couple of caveats re timing: if she was on the way out on the walk, the distance might be slightly less - fitness tracker info suggests she is inclined to cut out the ‘dog leg’ in the middle and go direct. Also, she may have been on the way back from walking a loop to the East when she arrived at the bench (see tracker info reconstructions upthread).
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Thanks so much

 

[Sweeper2000]

In the picture in post #168 there's a sign saying 'Danger Deep Water'.


Absolutely. What was the weather like last Friday there? Presumably fine if she was sitting on a bench.

I can vouch for the river. I live literally next to a stream, and while in fine weather the water may be no more than a foot high, come bad storms and days of rain it can rise another 7 or 8 feet, sometimes more very quickly, flooding our lower garden and last year drowning the batch of chicks our resident moorhens had had.

But I digress...

yeh that’s a legal requirement for any enterprise using something that can be hazardous to human health Ie the fishing club hiring the waters. You could have a mile of water that’s one foot deep and then a ten feet of a dip that goes to ten feet depth and you would need signs warning everyone who uses that water in the club of that dip. Really can’t say though, could be deep . All in all this is very concerNing. Would take a bet and say it looks safe enough to be able to fall in and get out again assuming a fall hadnt knocked her unconscious.

im not Sure about the weather, haven’t had any serious rain in London for a while now. It takes about a week for a river to drain the rainfall off significantly and about two of no rain at all to clear to no rain levels. Moo.

 

[shadwell]

Thanks so much

De nada. A basic loop to the East of the bench (not sticking to paths) would add around another 950m (give or take):
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[Sweeper2000]

Rainfall and river flow: weekly reports for England

Weekly reports on rainfall and river flow in England for the last 3 months.

www.gov.uk

 

[shadwell]

Just walking on rivers myself I would say a corner on the bend as noted in the picture in post 178. tends to have quite steep banks. Just guessing as well, that doesn’t look like a particularly deep stretch.

Yup - there’s a photo somewhere back upthread of the corner showing a very steep and quite high bank there.

 

[shadwell]

In the picture in post #168 there's a sign saying 'Danger Deep Water'.


Absolutely. What was the weather like last Friday there? Presumably fine if she was sitting on a bench.

I can vouch for the river. I live literally next to a stream, and while in fine weather the water may be no more than a foot high, come bad storms and days of rain it can rise another 7 or 8 feet, sometimes more very quickly, flooding our lower garden and last year drowning the batch of chicks our resident moorhens had had.

But I digress...

Weather info I looked at earlier suggested low-high range of 2-6 degrees, sunny/cloudy BUT this was recorded at the nearest measuring station in Blackpool - so potentially a bigger temperature range inland. The river levels site linked to previously suggested only about half a metre depth and no unusual spikes in level, BUT it appears that is measured below the weir, so it could be considerably deeper further up.

 

[Firstsnow4]

I am wondering who saw Nicola and where. The reports are confusing. It appears that she was last seen BEFORE starting her walk?

ETA police have reported that she was seen by a member of the public on the towpath about 9.15am.

Yes I want to know exactly who reported the sighting because the police officer is also asking for dashcam to see if she was captured - “Supt Sally Riley appealed to anyone who was driving through St Michael’s at around 9.15am on January 27 to examine their dashcam footage to see if they had captured Nicola as she began her walk on the road bridge over the river."

Do you think the police are disputing the sighting by the member of the public? Or they want to see whether she was with anyone or being followed?

 

[Sweeper2000]

'Jan 30, 2023
'We do believe the likelihood is Nicola has gone missing, this is not a crime inquiry.' Metropolitan police officer gives an update on the missing dog walker in Lancashire.'

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Interesting, “the dog was found between the river and bench”. According to the officer, In other words the dog seemed to stay put.

 

[Ellmau]

Whatever happened, I wonder why the dog did not raise the alarm.

 

[shadwell]

While it’s still hard to shake the feeling this is an accident, in terms of abduction potential, looking at Google maps it *might* be possible to get a vehicle up to the gate next the bench, though it’s not possible to see whether the track there is gated at the Wyreside Farm entrance, or if this is a private farm driveway/track. Access would be from Garstang Road via Allotment Road (private road), but I get the feeling you would need to know the area well.
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