Found Deceased UK - Nicola Bulley Last Seen Walking Dog Near River - St Michaels on Wyre (Lancashire) #4

[kittythehare]

FACTS:Lancaster 27th January. 87.7% humidity. 0.8mm precipitation.
Wind 26.3 Km/h

3C(37.4F)
...average 1C (with that speed of wind = freezing)

So... wet enough to rain? Yes (so cold it would have been almost snow)
Humid enough to create dew on grass. Yes

Ever seen a dog walk across grass and not get wet underneath? No.

And people keep sayingthe dog was dry.
Lancaster historical past weather | Weather25.com

Springers have a double layered coat.
Rain wet and submerged wet are two very different things.

 

[tree1]

This whole case is utterly heartbreaking and a painful reminder of how our lives and those close to us can be shattered in a moment. I can’t bear it for her family, especially her children. I also feel immense sadness for the dog who will be bewildered and aware she is no longer there. Yes, as an animal lover I find that painful too.

 

[Edinlass]

Wouldn’t the fit bit she was wearing sent alerts to her phone, upon entering the water her heart rate would have increased and when the cold temperature of the water hit, the heart rate would of dropped, wouldn’t this of been recorded by the fit bit?

All depends if the Fitbit was synced to her phone, and if the phone was on her person. We can’t rule out if the phone found was a work phone or personal.

 

[Edinlass]

Just going back over the crime statistics for violent/sexual offences since January 2022 in St Michaels Wrye for such a small community there does seem to be quite a number of offences that don't have any conclusion them and either unable to prosecute, under investigation or no suspect identified. I don't know whether this would be normal for an area this size or not but worryingly they all are relatively close to the area under current investigation. IMO

Local Crime Information for Wyre Bank, St. Michaels, Preston, PR3 0UP - February 2022

Local Crime Information for Wyre Bank, St. Michaels, Preston, PR3 0UP - May 2022

Local Crime Information for Wyre Bank, St. Michaels, Preston, PR3 0UP - June 2022

Local Crime Information for Wyre Bank, St. Michaels, Preston, PR3 0UP - August 2022

Local Crime Information for Wyre Bank, St. Michaels, Preston, PR3 0UP - September 2022

Local Crime Information for Wyre Bank, St. Michaels, Preston, PR3 0UP - October 2022

Local Crime Information for Wyre Bank, St. Michaels, Preston, PR3 0UP - November 2022

February 2022	On or near Allotment Lane	July 2022: Awaiting court outcome
February 2022	On or near Allotment Lane	July 2022: Awaiting court outcome
February 2022	On or near Blackpool Lane	July 2022: Unable to prosecute suspect

May 2022	On or near Allotment Lane	May 2022: Unable to prosecute suspect
May 2022	On or near Allotment Lane	May 2022: Unable to prosecute suspect

June 2022

On or near Blackpool Lane

June 2022: Unable to prosecute suspect

August 2022

On or near Hall Lane

September 2022: Unable to prosecute suspect

September 2022

On or near Garstang Road

October 2022: Local resolution

October 2022	On or near Apple Tree Close	October 2022: Under investigation
October 2022	On or near Apple Tree Close	October 2022: Under investigation
October 2022	On or near Blackpool Lane	November 2022: Unable to prosecute suspect

November 2022

On or near The Oaks

December 2022: Investigation complete; no suspect identified

Allotment lane is mentioned 4 times, is this the CCTV blind spot?

It’s so disturbing but on the flip side if we were all to put in our area we would probably be horrified to see the amount of crime gone unsolved on our doorsteps.

 

[todders]

Allotment lane is mentioned more than the others also, is this the CCTV blind spot?

I believe it is yes.IMO

 

[JimmyBets]

Wouldn’t the fit bit she was wearing sent alerts to her phone, upon entering the water her heart rate would have increased and when the cold temperature of the water hit, the heart rate would of dropped, wouldn’t this of been recorded by the fit bit?

JMO - If this Fitbit data had indeed been synced To the phone, then I believe the police would have this by now and would have shared it with the family as further evidence to show NB entered the water therefore supporting their main hypothesis.
Given what NB’s sister said last night I do not believe this to be the case

 

[todders]

JMO - If this Fitbit data had indeed been synced To the phone, then I believe the police would have this by now and would have shared it with the family as further evidence to show NB entered the water therefore supporting their main hypothesis.
Given what NB’s said last night I do not believe this to be the case

That would make sense and I agree they would have shared that information all ready if that was the case.IMO

 

[Edinlass]

JMO - If this Fitbit data had indeed been synced To the phone, then I believe the police would have this by now and would have shared it with the family as further evidence to show NB entered the water therefore supporting their main hypothesis.
Given what NB’s said last night I do not believe this to be the case

Agreed. That wouldn’t take long atall to check IF it were synced to the found phone. I feel most people use fitbits to track their steps etc and maybe don’t sync to their phones, it’s not quite like an Apple Watch which runs off data. More times than not I don’t even have my phone with me if I’m nipping out for a bit, I can pay for shopping, take calls, send messages with my Apple watch.

 

[everybodhi]

In my opinion: This is just my own story and applying LOGIC.

Dog lead on bench = no one else was around that she felt safe enough to let the dog roam.
Dog then spots a waterbird on the river, gets excited and in puruit jumps in.
Dog barks, struggles to get out of riverbank.
She knows she has to enter the river to save what she loves most.
Wants to places phone on the bank (her first thought) but places it safely on the bench (taking more time)
Guiltily (after making the dog wait - be it mere seconds) she steps in...and as many have mentioned above (water temperature causes shock) ...and like her pet she is placed in the same situation.
But manages to push the dog out. (Panic at the bank) Relief from saving her dog creates an elation that drains her own strength...the strength needed to escape her own fate. She needed adrenaline.

A tragedy.​

(There shoud be at least ONE place on the bank with torn grass... scrapes (maybe a still snapped branch) from where she helped lift her dog out... but she herself succumbed.)

This SPOT will be real close to the BENCH.
Although her body placed elsewhere by the current.
Literally sliped away.

FACTS:Lancaster 27th January. 87.7% humidity. 0.8mm precipitation.
Wind 26.3 Km/h

3C(37.4F)
...average 1C (with that speed of wind = freezing)

So... wet enough to rain? Yes (so cold it would have been almost snow)
Humid enough to create dew on grass. Yes

Ever seen a dog walk across grass and not get wet underneath? No.

And people keep sayingthe dog was dry.
Lancaster historical past weather | Weather25.com

I’m confused. Is your theory the dog spotted a water bird and jumped in the river or was the dog only wet underneath from dew?

 

[Lolabear]

Whilst I can see the most logical explanation is NB going in the river it all seems very strange and I can fully understand why the family aren't buying that! No slide marks or slip marks could mean she had gone down to the edge and maybe the dog was jumping up at her and knocked her in. Had she been spooked by something or someone and ran to grab the dog leaving everything on the bench and floor in a kind of fight or flight response and in her panic fell in. I'm at a loss as to how she could simply fall in and go totally unnoticed by anyone on what seems to be a popular dog walking area in a river that isn't gushing along at fast speed.

 

[Mumrahh]

Keep open mind over missing Nicola Bulley - sister - BBC News

Police believe Nicola Bulley fell into the river but her sister says there is "no evidence" of that.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[Deleted member 240694]

Has Lancashire police had many high profile missing persons cases in the past? Just asking out of curiosity.

Does anyone know if LE have been asked specifically about criminality rates in the area, especially on unsolved crimes of violence ?

 

[todders]

Does anyone know if LE have been asked specifically about criminality rates in the area, especially on unsolved crimes of violence ?

Just go back a page I listed them from January 2022

 

[jackal67]

This post has been lost in the volume of other comments but I think this is the most likely explanation.

I definitely think this is the gilet in question - even if you search "ankle length gilet" on google, most are slightly below the knee.

I think it's possible that NB was putting Willow's harness back on (note the "dogs must be on leads" sign at the tree, as prev. discussed) facing the bench with her back to the river. She puts the phone on the bench to make it easier. She steps on the tail of the coat and falls back, hitting her head. She tries to get up, disoriented, and steps backwards, losing her balance and staggering/going backwards into the river. JMO.

As someone who frequently wears knee length cardigans, the amount of times I've stepped on the back of them by accident is ridiculous. On one occasion, I was zipping up my niece's coat, tried to stand back up and smacked my head on the kitchen tiles (earning myself a concussion). It is easily done.

L

Sometimes when you fall over you can lose your balance and stumble quite a distance before you either right yourself or fall flat. Doubly so if you are on a slope or uneven ground.

So I think it’s quite possible Nicola could have stumbled from a point not even that close to the edge of the bank and practically ‘run’ into the water while carried forward on the momentum of an initial stumble.

So I don’t think she necessarily needs a reason to have been going particularly close to the edge of the steep bank or retrieving a ball from the water or anything - simply walking about anywhere on the slope could potentially have been enough, and you can stumble along while remaining on your feet so not leaving obvious skid or slip marks.

I once witnessed someone trip over a step at a train station and they stumbled about 3m-4m forward and ended up over the edge of the platform onto the track (fortunately they seemed to be fine, they were helped up back onto the platform) - it looked almost as if they just launched themselves onto the train track. I could imagine a similar stumble in this case but leading over the edge of the riverbank.

I agree. I once witnessed a lady walking along the pavement ,she tripped stumbled and ended up doing a complete somersault ,it was shocking to watch but thankfully she suffered only a broken shoulder. What if that happened close to water!

 

[wens67]

Missing mum Nicola Bulley latest as police urge public to hunt for clothes

Lancashire Constabulary believes that mum-of-two Nicola fell into the River Wyre after encountering "issues" with her dog Willow on January 27

www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk

Sorry if this has already been posted, I'm playing catch up. Police asking for people to look for clothes. Why would these, be on the side if she fell in?

 

[shadwell]

Agreed. That wouldn’t take long atall to check IF it were synced to the found phone. I feel most people use fitbits to track their steps etc and maybe don’t sync to their phones, it’s not quite like an Apple Watch which runs off data. More times than not I don’t even have my phone with me if I’m nipping out for a bit, I can pay for shopping, take calls, send messages with my Apple watch.

Don’t use a Fitbit myself, so looked it up (see below) - if the device was on the surface or out of the water and within range (battery life permitting), it appears that it should be possible to manually sync it to a phone - albeit it would be a slow process going down the river repeatedly attempting a manual sync.

As best I can tell however, if the device was underwater its potential detection range would be limited to a few inches.

Image source: How do Fitbit devices sync their data?

 

[ginnyw]

It's really all so odd and so sad. Her sister's comments about Willow not having a ball have made it all seem even more strange, along with Willow being bone dry. I so hope that the police can find out more, if they haven't already, and put this family out of their terrible limbo at least.

Family and friends insist 'no evidence' behind police theory Nicola Bulley fell in river

 

[MrsWatson]

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/02/04/uk/nicola-bulley-missing-intl-gbr/index.html

 

[emucalfskin]

Just going back over the crime statistics for violent/sexual offences since January 2022 in St Michaels Wrye for such a small community there does seem to be quite a number of offences that don't have any conclusion them and either unable to prosecute, under investigation or no suspect identified. I don't know whether this would be normal for an area this size or not but worryingly they all are relatively close to the area under current investigation. IMO

Local Crime Information for Wyre Bank, St. Michaels, Preston, PR3 0UP - February 2022

Local Crime Information for Wyre Bank, St. Michaels, Preston, PR3 0UP - May 2022

Local Crime Information for Wyre Bank, St. Michaels, Preston, PR3 0UP - June 2022

Local Crime Information for Wyre Bank, St. Michaels, Preston, PR3 0UP - August 2022

Local Crime Information for Wyre Bank, St. Michaels, Preston, PR3 0UP - September 2022

Local Crime Information for Wyre Bank, St. Michaels, Preston, PR3 0UP - October 2022

Local Crime Information for Wyre Bank, St. Michaels, Preston, PR3 0UP - November 2022

February 2022	On or near Allotment Lane	July 2022: Awaiting court outcome
February 2022	On or near Allotment Lane	July 2022: Awaiting court outcome
February 2022	On or near Blackpool Lane	July 2022: Unable to prosecute suspect

May 2022	On or near Allotment Lane	May 2022: Unable to prosecute suspect
May 2022	On or near Allotment Lane	May 2022: Unable to prosecute suspect

June 2022

On or near Blackpool Lane

June 2022: Unable to prosecute suspect

August 2022

On or near Hall Lane

September 2022: Unable to prosecute suspect

September 2022

On or near Garstang Road

October 2022: Local resolution

October 2022	On or near Apple Tree Close	October 2022: Under investigation
October 2022	On or near Apple Tree Close	October 2022: Under investigation
October 2022	On or near Blackpool Lane	November 2022: Unable to prosecute suspect

November 2022

On or near The Oaks

December 2022: Investigation complete; no suspect identified

Thanks for this it’s shocked me, I wouldn’t have thought there would have been that many! But all really close to the area that Nicola was last seen

 

[Gavlar1985]

Placing the phone on the bench for me is fine. Leaving it there is another thing. It was an open area though. If it was me and it was more crowded I might still place my phone down next to me, but would pick it up if moving off, even if just for a look at something nearby. In an open area like that I might feel more comfortable leaving it on the bench if just stepping away a few meters to look at something. Which suggests she wasn't going far away. But something made her leave the bench area and take a look at something.

Indicates to me that she had EarPod style headphones in, rather than wired, which would have allowed her to walk around and still listen into the call. I still haven’t seen this confirmed anywhere online though. It’s a big piece of detail that they should have released by now IMO. I know what headphones my partner uses, I’m sure it’s no different for hers.