Found Deceased UK - Nicola Bulley Last Seen Walking Dog Near River - St Michaels on Wyre (Lancashire) #4

[Tanzanite]

The gilet might 'officially' be knee length, but NB isn't a tall woman - it could be mid-shin on her. I'm now imagining her kneeling down close to the water to attend to the dog/harness/lead. She then tried to stand up, the hem of the gilet trapped under her foot, and it's enough to send her off balance, unable to regain her footing. It would be nothing away from a river bank, but an awkward stumble next to a river is another thing.

There should be signs of slipping/similar, however, but that goes for most attempts at an explanation. Poor, poor Nicola.

 

[Themac101]

Lots of conflicting stuff about water levels.

So NB would not have been swept past the weir last Friday/Saturday?

It’s 0.4M at Garstang right now, don’t quote me for last Friday but it was around the same.

So it would have had to have been a medical emergency i.e. a heart attack, stroke etc. or rendered unconscious via a hit to the head accidentally or otherwise. Basically had she been fully conscious and aware she would have been able to shout out for help for 15 mins straight or not? I need someone to tell me if she was fully conscious and fell in how long would it take due to the water being cold for her to lose consciousness? OR, was it just so cold she would fall in and be unable to scream/thrash I mean doesn’t fight or flight mode set in.

Weather below last Friday - pleasant (use that lightly) enough day but cold, highs of 6 lows of 2. What temp would the water be?

I couldn’t say for certain. Everything I’m saying is speculation based on having been in the river when it was higher than this and flowing faster. That being said, it was considerably warmer than it is now. The water temp would have been around 5 degrees based on what I know from fishing, somewhere around whatever the average air temperature had been for the last few days. But not as cold as any still water pond or lake. To the touch it would have been very cold, theoretically cold enough to cause a person problems and there might have been a spot deep enough to drown. I don’t think it would have been deep or fast enough to take a body out to sea or beyond the weir though IMO.

 

[pineapple23]

So it would have had to have been a medical emergency i.e. a heart attack, stroke etc. or rendered unconscious via a hit to the head accidentally or otherwise. Basically had she been fully conscious and aware she would have been able to shout out for help for 15 mins straight or not? I need someone to tell me if she was fully conscious and fell in how long would it take due to the water being cold for her to lose consciousness? OR, is so cold you would fall in and be unable to scream/thrash I mean doesn’t fight or flight mode set in.

Weather below last Friday - pleasant day highs of 6degrees lows of 2 degrees. What temp would the water be?

The water would have been cold and a shock to the system. Plus she might have had an initial intake of water. Add to that the clothing weighing her down, I think she would have been struggling to get air, let alone shouting for help for 15 minutes.

 

[Edinlass]

https://rnli.org/safety/know-the-risks/cold-water-shock#:~:text=The%20sudden%20cooling%20of%20the,water%20directly%20into%20the%20lungs.

You can't shout with water in your lungs and would drown quickly.

Well according to this poster who waded in it if she was conscious she could stand -

This isn’t anything like the Tweed, it’s worth noting the water levels last week and the actual geography of this river. I waded it chest deep while fishing last summer and the water was higher and flowing faster than it was last Friday.

IMO If she has fallen in, a sequence of freak events have occurred. The only factor for me that would point towards an accident is water temperature. IMO The river isn’t consistently deep or fast enough for a body to flow down, passed the weir, all of the runs which are only a foot and a half deep and the bends which all have a shallow inner section. In flood somebody could easily be swept away and out to sea but the level last Friday at Garstang was close to 0.4 meters.

 

[CoverMeCagney]

I’m wondering what her coat was made from. Some padded coats are really lightweight even when wet, some get ridiculously heavy. She had on a padded gilet, too. They might have dragged her down.

 

[Firstsnow4]

The water would have been cold and a shock to the system. Plus she might have had an initial intake of water. Add to that the clothing weighing her down, I think she would have been struggling to get air, let alone shouting for help for 15 minutes.

That is horrible to think about. Drowning would be my worst fear. I just hope if it did happen this way she was unconscious beforehand and didn’t know anything about it.

 

[Taskforce88]

The dog also may have knocked the phone onto the ground if it was going crazy.

 

[Edinlass]

The water would have been cold and a shock to the system. Plus she might have had an initial intake of water. Add to that the clothing weighing her down, I think she would have been struggling to get air, let alone shouting for help for 15 minutes.

I see.

 

[sitaford1]

Just 15cm of fast-flowing water can knock you off your feet and be enough for you not to be able to regain your footing.
Source:

How Floods Work

Flooding has claimed more lives than any other natural disaster. Find out how a gentle stream becomes a raging 🤬🤬🤬🤬🤬🤬🤬.

science.howstuffworks.com

If the river level was around half a metre, bearing in mind it's flowing water and very cold, plus there is a drop from the bank so presumably a fall has occurred and thus some disorientation or injury, it would be very difficult to get out of the river once you were in :-(

 

[WestLondoner]

I think the probability of an accident, particularly with a lively dog like a spaniel is much higher than the likelihood of someone banging her on the head and pushing her in the river.

Agree. Assuming the police are correct here and this was an accident, she probably fell over the dog.

 

[Cicane]

If NB was by the water for whatever reason and Willow was in the field she would likely be out of her line of vision due to the bank. If it all happened quickly Willow may have been playing up in the field and seen nothing. She may have assumed NB had left without her through the gate which is why she was between the gate and the bench rather than water and bench.

 

[abcd123]

Have the police searched the river upstream of the bench? There’s the possibility that she could have got to the bench to put the phone and harness down and then head back upstream if the dog got into trouble up there? Would explain the lack of any slipping marks etc near the bench?

 

[Blamhappy]

Have the police searched the river upstream of the bench? There’s the possibility that she could have got to the bench to put the phone and harness down and then head back upstream if the dog got into trouble up there? Would explain the lack of any slipping marks etc near the bench?

Yes, as stated in the press conference.

 

[Questions unanswered]

River Wyre - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

On wiki it states that the river only becomes tidal after the weir as i have shown on the map. The area she was near at the bench wasnt tidal as some have suggested.

 

[Taskforce88]

Have the police searched the river upstream of the bench? There’s the possibility that she could have got to the bench to put the phone and harness down and then head back upstream if the dog got into trouble up there? Would explain the lack of any slipping marks etc near the bench?

I would like to think they have searched up river from beyond the area NB was last seen to the bench and then on down river.

 

[sitaford1]

There’s the possibility that she could have got to the bench to put the phone and harness down and then head back upstream if the dog got into trouble up there? Would explain the lack of any slipping marks etc near the bench?

Wouldn't she be likely to take her phone with her though rather than leave it on a bench, especially as she was on a Teams call.

 

[kittythehare]

I feel quite deflated after todays press conference - I still had hope that she may have been abducted so at least a chance she may be alive somewhere but now a tragic river accident sounds like the only feasible option. No chance of surviving that. Awful. God know how her family are feeling.

We all are, I'm sure.
But the information was delivered in such a manner that our wounds have been minimised- somebody else is taking care of things and doing it better and more proficiently than we ever could.
But she didn't take all the hope away.
There's still a tiny spark of light, just 10 minutes, but I'll take it.

 

[abcd123]

Wouldn't she be likely to take her phone with her though rather than leave it on a bench, especially as she was on a Teams call.

Just thinking if the dog got into some trouble and she dropped everything to run to it.

Either way apparently the police have searched upstream so likely doesn’t matter

 

[infinit]

Well according to this poster who waded in it if she was conscious she could stand -

This isn’t anything like the Tweed, it’s worth noting the water levels last week and the actual geography of this river. I waded it chest deep while fishing last summer and the water was higher and flowing faster than it was last Friday.

IMO If she has fallen in, a sequence of freak events have occurred. The only factor for me that would point towards an accident is water temperature. IMO The river isn’t consistently deep or fast enough for a body to flow down, passed the weir, all of the runs which are only a foot and a half deep and the bends which all have a shallow inner section. In flood somebody could easily be swept away and out to sea but the level last Friday at Garstang was close to 0.4 meters.

Going in a river during the summer is vastly different. As I said to a previous poster, if you're feeling adventurous with no medical conditions and someone to supervise you - Run a bath purely with the cold tap and then get in quickly without pausing and dunk your whole body including your head in. You'll have the benefit of the sides of the bath to pull up with, knowledge you're safe and it will be something you were expecting, but imagine you didn't and think about if you're in a state to be making logical, well informed decisions.

 

[Firstsnow4]

We all are, I'm sure.
But the information was delivered in such a manner that our wounds have been minimised- somebody else is taking care of things and doing it better and more proficiently than we ever could.
But she didn't take all the hope away.
There's still a tiny spark of light, just 10 minutes, but I'll take it.

Im holding on to that 10 mins. Could something have happened in that 10 mins possibly that took her away from the scene via an area not with CCTV or hidden in a car maybe?? IMO.