Found Deceased UK - Nicola Bulley Last Seen Walking Dog Near River - St Michaels on Wyre (Lancashire) #7

[citygirl]

If you find yourself in a cold body of water unexpectedly all you have is your hands to get out. Unless there are some pretty well rooted plants around you are basically grabbing at either mud or small reeds. It's not a very good situation and there would not be all that much evidence of someone having been trying to get out. Fingers are actually very thin body parts.

IMO the MP accidentally fell in while retrieving something and quickly judged that they could not get out. Perhaps due to familiarity with the area and knowledge of somewhere with a "beach" they decided to attempt to get there and walk out, unaware of the cold water shock situation. Problems can rapidly develop in cold water and take over basic control of body functions. Panic reaction is natural although some people can avoid this.

Apparently the anglers say this is a "deep hole" area. IMO they know what they are doing as they are going for the fish and take catching fish very seriously. You can't underestimate the determination of a keen angler.
If there is a beach area maybe on a bend just upstream of where the bench is then it seems to be likely that the drowning occurred between the bench and the beach. IMO the MP was attempting, due to local knowledge of the area, to reach an area where it would be theoretically much easier to get back out of the River. If the deep bit occurred between the point of accidentally entering the river and the beach then the outcome seems pretty inevitable given the cold temperature of the water at this time of year. Not sure on exact temperature but it is going to be very cold.

MOO but spending a lot of time searching in the immediate area is needed.

I've just been searching for the water temp in the River Wyre, to no avail. Has this been mentioned on this thread?

 

[ginnyw]

My theory is that Nicola is in the water.. The key is her long coat.. She sets her phone down on the bench whilst its on call, to put the harness back on her dog. As she bends down to put the harness back on the dog, her feet / knees get trapped on/inside the ankle length coat, causing her to loose footing, take a tumble down the steep bank.. and thus leaving the harness midway between the bench and water.

The coat has been clearly shown in CCTV images as not being ankle length though.

 

[rosieposie121]

coat appears more knee length but maybe could get tangled up in it or the weight of it

MSN

why do the reports keep saying ankle length? Still, kneeling down on a steep embankment you can still get your knees trapped inside a coat causing a tumble.hmm maybe back to the drawing board for.me

 

[DaFroome]

If you find yourself in a cold body of water unexpectedly all you have is your hands to get out. Unless there are some pretty well rooted plants around you are basically grabbing at either mud or small reeds. It's not a very good situation and there would not be all that much evidence of someone having been trying to get out. Fingers are actually very thin body parts.

IMO the MP accidentally fell in while retrieving something and quickly judged that they could not get out. Perhaps due to familiarity with the area and knowledge of somewhere with a "beach" they decided to attempt to get there and walk out, unaware of the cold water shock situation. Problems can rapidly develop in cold water and take over basic control of body functions. Panic reaction is natural although some people can avoid this.

Apparently the anglers say this is a "deep hole" area. IMO they know what they are doing as they are going for the fish and take catching fish very seriously. You can't underestimate the determination of a keen angler.
If there is a beach area maybe on a bend just upstream of where the bench is then it seems to be likely that the drowning occurred between the bench and the beach. IMO the MP was attempting, due to local knowledge of the area, to reach an area where it would be theoretically much easier to get back out of the River. If the deep bit occurred between the point of accidentally entering the river and the beach then the outcome seems pretty inevitable given the cold temperature of the water at this time of year. Not sure on exact temperature but it is going to be very cold.

MOO but spending a lot of time searching in the immediate area is needed.

A very high probability. I think this might pretty much cover it.

 

[GTB72]

That's a good bit upstream from the bench and a couple of bends to navigate too. Suspect hypothermia would set in b4 she would make it there. But you never know. Imo.

Edited by me. Apologies. I thought you meant after falling in she would try to make it there and get out.

 

[Beginnersleuth]

I really hope the SGI team get a chance to search the body of water at Rowanwater (picture attached)
The last time a real person saw Nicola, she was in the top field by this body of water.


View attachment 401003

Couple of beach bits up there on google earth but seem to have been photographed in summer when river might be shallower

 

[Dobby’s sock]

I wonder if its possible her long gilet made her buoyant and she floated away much faster than is being estimated.

If she was floating down the river someone would have seen her. It was only a short time frame.

 

[Just-a-random-girl]

I just have to chime in on this case because it is driving me bonkers. I lived overlooking the Tennessee River for 8 years. That is a very large, wide river with strong currents, logs, debris, giant catfish - you name it. I knew someone who disappeared near the river in winter, February in fact, and his body surfaced about two weeks later - not downstream or far away, but near the dock where he obviously fell in.

But in this case the divers haven't found a body or any clothing near the riverside or anywhere else.

If it were raining now and a flood happening, I can see a body washing over the weir and maybe out to sea. But it's not raining or flooding. Someone earlier mentioned fly fishing in that river near the bench and the water was chest deep - but that was in summer and the river was higher.

It just seems absurd to say she drowned with no footprints or skid marks showing she fell in. The dog wasn't wet. The phone was there with her meeting still going on. There is a 10 minute window. I'm just as baffled as everyone else.

I'm surprised not a single item of clothing or apparel has been found in the water. No welly, no fitbit, no necklace, no coat, nothing from her pockets. This suggests to me IMO that if she is in the water she probably succumbed to cold water shock. I can't imagine trying to get out, or swim or wade to an exit point, and not lose or discard anything.

 

[russeverton]

It is surprising to me that a dog that had just seen its mistress vanish into a river would have stayed completely dry.

Or not been at the river bed going crazy like most dogs would

 

[Wishbone]

I've just been searching for the water temp in the River Wyre, to no avail. Has this been mentioned on this thread?

here is data for 2021 and 2022

Open WIMS data

environment.data.gov.uk

 

[infinit]

It is surprising to me that a dog that had just seen its mistress vanish into a river would have stayed completely dry.

No theory really works well with the dog being where it was because if she hypothetically was forced off somewhere then the dog would have probably followed.

JMO.

 

[dotr]

Cannot recall offhand if NB was wearing a ring on her finger or not, but - if she did not wear gloves to throw a ball for example, a ring can go flying off and that would be something many might blindly chase after (and fall?) speculation, imo.

 

[SpursGyal]

You trust which theory? Not sure which one hes supporting as of this minute.

I didn’t mention a theory? - He still remains confident she’d have been found by now. If we get to the end of the their search and he says she’s not there, I’ll believe him.

 

[msmarple99]

I'm surprised not a single item of clothing or apparel has been found in the water. No welly, no fitbit, no necklace, no coat, nothing from her pockets. This suggests to me IMO that if she is in the water she probably succumbed to cold water shock. I can't imagine trying to get out, or swim or wade to an exit point, and not lose or discard anything.

I don't find it surprising at all JMO

 

[thirdrateamywinehouse]

Honestly I'm just glad that I'm not the only one thinking this is an odd case. Everything just seems off with it, and on top of that its so tragic.

 

[Firstsnow4]

I'm surprised not a single item of clothing or apparel has been found in the water. No welly, no fitbit, no necklace, no coat, nothing from her pockets. This suggests to me IMO that if she is in the water she probably succumbed to cold water shock. I can't imagine trying to get out, or swim or wade to an exit point, and not lose or discard anything.

I was also looking at the SGI divers trying to get out of the river earlier and they were being more or less pulled out by a rope (I know they have lots of heavy gear on) - but that signifies how steep the bank is. So although she may have been a good swimmer, perhaps the attempts of getting out tired her out and contributed to the cold water shock / and or drowning. The only thing i don’t understand is why she wasn’t found in the initial hours of her being reported missing. Search and rescue were on site pretty quickly. IMO.

 

[Coach]

If you find yourself in a cold body of water unexpectedly all you have is your hands to get out. Unless there are some pretty well rooted plants around you are basically grabbing at either mud or small reeds. It's not a very good situation and there would not be all that much evidence of someone having been trying to get out. Fingers are actually very thin body parts.

IMO the MP accidentally fell in while retrieving something and quickly judged that they could not get out. Perhaps due to familiarity with the area and knowledge of somewhere with a "beach" they decided to attempt to get there and walk out, unaware of the cold water shock situation. Problems can rapidly develop in cold water and take over basic control of body functions. Panic reaction is natural although some people can avoid this.

Apparently the anglers say this is a "deep hole" area. IMO they know what they are doing as they are going for the fish and take catching fish very seriously. You can't underestimate the determination of a keen angler.
If there is a beach area maybe on a bend just upstream of where the bench is then it seems to be likely that the drowning occurred between the bench and the beach. IMO the MP was attempting, due to local knowledge of the area, to reach an area where it would be theoretically much easier to get back out of the River. If the deep bit occurred between the point of accidentally entering the river and the beach then the outcome seems pretty inevitable given the cold temperature of the water at this time of year. Not sure on exact temperature but it is going to be very cold.

MOO but spending a lot of time searching in the immediate area is needed.

That’s right re fishing/anglers, the water right beside the bench is called ‘The Deep Hole’.

 

[kev4pe]

Or not been at the river bed going crazy like most dogs would

I think the dog is the key to this. the dog would have been wet or barking at the river. I think the dog has seen too late that she has exited by the gate (either by her own or by force)

 

[PS8800]

After seeing the steep drop precisely where she is suspected to have gone in it further adds to my suspicion shes fallen in, cold and panicked and sadly succumbed.
The sad thing is that a little ways up by the bridge there is the beach part that if you fell in here you may be able to drag yourself out but zero chance by that bench.

 

[Just-a-random-girl]

I wonder if its possible her long gilet made her buoyant and she floated away much faster than is being estimated.

Police could test this out by dressing an officer or volunteer in a similar outfit and seeing the effect of the clothing in falling in, and then trying to exit, a pool or something.

As the jacket was quite thick and long, albeit knee-length not ankle-length, I am wondering if - on entering the water - the bottom half could have ended up over her head. In that case, she might not be able to see/move.