Found Deceased UK - Nicola Bulley Last Seen Walking Dog Near River - St Michaels on Wyre (Lancashire) #8

[todders]

Forgive my ignorance, but why was NB treated as a "high risk missing person" from the get-go? There would have had to have been a reason for this.

The National College of Policing guidelines on missing persons "classification" is as follows:

- No apparent risk (absent): Actions to locate the subject and/or gather further information should be agreed with the informant and a latest review time set to reassess the risk.

- Low risk: Proportionate enquiries should be carried out to ensure that the individual has not come to harm.

- Medium risk: This category requires an active and measured response by the police and other agencies in order to trace the missing person and support the person reporting.

- High risk: This category almost always requires the immediate deployment of police resources – action may be delayed in exceptional circumstances, such as searching water or forested areas during hours of darkness. A member of the senior management team must be involved in the examination of initial lines of enquiry and approval of appropriate staffing levels. Such cases should lead to the appointment of an investigating officer (IO) and possibly an SIO, and a police search adviser (PolSA). There should be a press/media strategy and/or close contact with outside agencies. Family support should be put in place where appropriate. The MPB should be notified of the case without undue delay. Children’s services must also be notified immediately if the person is under 18.

The response on Jan 27 was quite clearly a "High risk" response, and there must have been a reason for this.

Missing persons | College of Policing

This page is from APP, the official source of professional practice for policing.

www.college.police.uk

Yes I agree and this was their response, so was it the circumstances of a phone, harness, dog,near water was the red flag or something family member said to the police that gave them reason to respond in this way. Iam guessing it was what was told to them in addition to the main details. IMO

 

[DickieDumDum]

Yep, many appologies, I actually misread the names. Sorry.

Very interesting they both appeared at the same location if you compare both cases on final outcome.

I guess there's a good reason police drones are at Shard Bridge every night.

 

[suzyjackson]

That answers my earlier question on if the police were supplied with the cctv footage or if the police sourced the cctv footage. Thats very interesting. Well spotted.
It appears from that article that the images were released by Emma White.
<modsnip>

What am I missing, we've known from when the images were released last week that the friend did it. Why is this being rehashed now?

 

[ginnyw]

It’s important, because this is what everyone is using as a reference for NB’s clothing on the day of disappearance. This image contradicts what the police had originally stated she was wearing, which included, most notably, an “ankle-length gilet”. So if this image is NOT of NB from 27 Jan, then it’s a serious piece of false evidence.

Not that this probably means anything, but in today's photo by the river with PA, Emma White is wearing an ankle-length coat/gilet. I realise it's a common piece of clothing! Just an observation.

 

[SOMETHINGWILLDO]

What am I missing, we've known from when the images were released last week that the friend did it. Why is this being rehashed now?

I didn't know that, I had asked the question further up the thread

 

[Gavlar1985]

PF and team stopping search after today (apologies if it’s already been posted).

 

[cottonweaver]

Forgive my ignorance, but why was NB treated as a "high risk missing person" from the get-go? There would have had to have been a reason for this.

The National College of Policing guidelines on missing persons "classification" is as follows:

- No apparent risk (absent): Actions to locate the subject and/or gather further information should be agreed with the informant and a latest review time set to reassess the risk.

- Low risk: Proportionate enquiries should be carried out to ensure that the individual has not come to harm.

- Medium risk: This category requires an active and measured response by the police and other agencies in order to trace the missing person and support the person reporting.

- High risk: This category almost always requires the immediate deployment of police resources – action may be delayed in exceptional circumstances, such as searching water or forested areas during hours of darkness. A member of the senior management team must be involved in the examination of initial lines of enquiry and approval of appropriate staffing levels. Such cases should lead to the appointment of an investigating officer (IO) and possibly an SIO, and a police search adviser (PolSA). There should be a press/media strategy and/or close contact with outside agencies. Family support should be put in place where appropriate. The MPB should be notified of the case without undue delay. Children’s services must also be notified immediately if the person is under 18.

The response on Jan 27 was quite clearly a "High risk" response, and there must have been a reason for this.

Missing persons | College of Policing

This page is from APP, the official source of professional practice for policing.

www.college.police.uk

cause the proximity to that river bank with a big sign saying 'Danger!' is probably a high risk scenario ( A high risk of coming to harm)

Presser states that this was signed off by the National Police Search Advisor and the National Crime Agency

 

[pineapple23]

The response on Jan 27 was quite clearly a "High risk" response, and there must have been a reason for this.

I see a difference in Nicola's case and that of someone who, for example, hasn't been seen for a while. In this case it was quite specific - lone female disappears by river, dog and phone found. There was a distinct possibility she was in the river and time would have been of the essence JMO.

 

[DazN]

A young man disappeared nearby years ago. Went into river just upstream.
No divers etc then but similar environmental conditions & time of year

It was over 5 miles away to the south and the poor lad fell into a 'fast-flowing stream in flood.'

Under those circumstances a body would travel much faster and further than the current conditions IMO

More recent, but here is the river during the floods of November 2021

Fresh flooding chaos hits Lancs village after heavy rain

 

[suzyjackson]

It’s important, because this is what everyone is using as a reference for NB’s clothing on the day of disappearance. This image contradicts what the police had originally stated she was wearing, which included, most notably, an “ankle-length gilet”. So if this image is NOT of NB from 27 Jan, then it’s a serious piece of false evidence.

Are you saying that confusion over the length of the gilet has contributed to NB not being found?

I really don't think anyone has seen her but not called it in because the gilet was skimming her knees (if it was) rather than nearer the ground. Do you think that a realistic scenario?

 

[JeremyBentham]

so if the person who fell 45 years ago was only recovered 2 months later down the same stretch of river 7/8 miles later then how can the search expert say definitively that NB not in river already ?

is it because search technology might have improved sig in the past 50 years ?

Conditions will certainly be very different, but expertise and technology will have moved on significantly. And I'd imagine response times too.

He was found 2 months later and 7 miles away. Now he could have got caught up preventing him from going further, but that's still a long time to have travelled 7 miles, which makes it hard to believe NB might be out to see needing to travel roughly 13 miles in 10 days.

 

[Mrb]

Having watched it unfold I do think the police are not telling the whole story, if the national crime agency are involved they could be looking at things that are cyber related not just the dash cam footage.

The police could be using the river as a decoy, but actually have information on the where-about of Nikki therefore don't want to risk thwarting the investigation if there is possibly of third party involvement.

But it's all very bizarre that they didn't seal off the chair as that is essentially a crime scene, which makes me think they already have information. My suspicion is that she's not in the water and this was pre-planned that's why it's sometimes important not to always publish your whereabouts on Facebook, all it takes is to someone to watch Nikki's movements over time and what area's don't have CCTV.

 

[karakuchi]

I also think it's unlikely, but I wonder whether the witnesses know NB personally, or if they mainly recognise her by the dog she's usually with. There's a man who walks three spaniels together where I live, I noticed when one of the dogs wasn't with him one day, but I'm not sure I'd recognise him without any of his dogs.

This is an interesting thought!
Did the witnesses recognise the dog, not the person.

There was a quote in media early when the case broke of the 'anonymous' shop owner, she said something along the lines of "I recognised the dog, but didn't know who it belonged to"

Link:

'Worried' passer-by raised alarm after finding Nicola Bulley's dog

The search for the missing mum-of-two is entering it's seventh day as friends and family appeal for information.

www.express.co.uk

 

[jackal67]

Why?

No real reason. Shame there does not appear to be a family member supporting him I guess.

 

[kittythehare]

Yep, many appologies, I actually misread the names. Sorry.

Very interesting they both appeared at the same location if you compare both cases on final outcome.

It is interesting.

 

[cottonweaver]

I'm done with this guy.

Why on earth is he doing media about the family? Law enforcement have trained people for these tasks.

Sally Riley said yesterday that LE are updating the family every single day. *

Now if I was a casual observer I might have mistakenly got the impression from that interview '..... and it's upsetting for me dealing with the family....' that LE are not in regular contact with the family.


* Link 'Her family continues to be supported by specially trained officers who update the family daily and support them in other ways.' UK - UK - Nicola Bulley Last Seen Walking Dog Near River - St Michaels on Wyre (Lancashire) #7

 

[Beckxsy]

If she’d got out of the water and hidden herself somewhere, exhausted, her dog would have scented her even if a mile or two away. JMO

Dependant where down or up river she managed to get out. She could have managed to get out on the complete opposite bank of the dog out of sight. Theory again but highly plausible.

 

[GeorgeFormby]

I have no knowledge about this (other than GCSE Geography), so maybe other members could give some insight? The river is full of sediment, so how quickly before something could be mostly covered in sediment, as to not be picked up by sonar? Could it be that after heavy rainfall, the sediment is disturbed as the river flow changes, and anything its hiding is potentially revealed, hence why sadly so many lost in rivers, only turn up months later, despite sonar scans? We know that the largest stones, rocks etc. are only going to move in strong flows, and deposited first, as the water slows. The finer materials will deposit when the water becomes almost static (hence why the edges of the river are typically muddy), and will be the first materials to move again as it speeds up. Is it the case that a large object would slow down the flow, and sediment would settle on the opposite side of the object, and eventually (depending on various factors) be fully covered?

 

[cottonweaver]

PF and team stopping search after today (apologies if it’s already been posted).

TBF once he got the go-ahead, he did say he'd spend 3 or 4 days down there. Isn't it day 3 today?

 

[todders]

This is an interesting thought!
Did the witnesses recognise the dog, not the person.

There was a quote in media early when the case broke of the 'anonymous' shop owner, she said something along the lines of "I recognised the dog, but didn't know who it belonged to"

Link:

'Worried' passer-by raised alarm after finding Nicola Bulley's dog

The search for the missing mum-of-two is entering it's seventh day as friends and family appeal for information.

www.express.co.uk

View attachment 401198

You would have thought that the police would have been all over this already, and asking that exact question again and again.IMO