Found Deceased UK - Nicola Bulley Last Seen Walking Dog Near River - St Michaels on Wyre (Lancashire) #8

[supersleuth123]

This isn’t a bad theory, actually.

It would also explain the uncharacteristically rapid police response...Interesting! Having said that, her age does make it much less likely (though obviously not impossible)

 

[Beckxsy]

Gosh can't help but think the good nature of some to help may have hindered the investigation somewhat.

 

[ginnyw]

can you link us to where police said this eyespye, and welcome

It would also explain the uncharacteristically rapid police response...Interesting! Having said that, her age does make it much less likely (though obviously not impossible)

It IS an interesting theory, I think. Unlikely, but doesn't mean it isn't possible. Would explain a possible collapse, would also explain why NB looks (IMO) a bit peaky and unwell in the CCTV photos. But how terribly tragic if this was the case.

 

[kittythehare]

After just logging in, the incredible thing for me to see was that PF has now said that NB may have made it out to sea, after yesterday saying this was "impossible".

Nicola Bulley – latest: Dog walker ‘could be out to sea by now’ as friends hit out at grief tourists

Chaos.

 

[steelo]

When was the last time that NB was positively identified without doubt? I'm guessing it was by her children when dropped off at school.
The police are saying she didn't leave the field on foot, they were certain the river was her route out.
The search team are now saying she isn't in the river.
What if she never reached the field in the first place and the sightings were of someone else walking her dog and in her clothing?
What if she was abducted between leaving the car at the school and getting to the bench?
What if her coat was removed, the dog and phone were taken and she was taken elsewhere?
A decoy was then leading the dog to the field, used the phone to send a message and email, the calendar on the phone coincidentally flags up the teams call which the decoy joins as a bonus alibi, albeit muted without video and eventually leaves the lead and harness on the bench, eventually drops the phone mid call for someone else to find and then leaves the field by some other means, possibly across the fence in the upper field to Rowanwater where the reported last sighting of NB was which itself could have been a lie or reported by the decoy themselves! It seems that the clothing originally reported was incorrect anyway - ankle length gillet which in fact was a knee length coat.

So many questions!

 

[Mr X]

Possible theory. IMO the dog harness is critical.

There was some suggestion earlier that there were issues with dogs off leads and someone (not the land owner) had put up notices to the effect that people must not have dogs off leads.

What could have happened is you might get an irate passer by who gets into a confrontation with the MP and out of anger throws the dog harness, which may have simply been sitting on the bench beside the MP, in the river.

IMO it is feasible that someone who was wound up could express their frustration by interacting with the harness. "Why do you have this if you don't use it ?" type of comment. Then in frustration the irate passer by just carries on with their journey.

MP goes to retrieve dog harness, slips in water and throws harness back out of river and then succumbs to cold water shock etc while trying to get back out.


MOO but there has been no confirmation of whether the dog harness was wet or dry. I feel this is a key detail here but not sure why it would not be mentioned unless the assumption is that it was dry.

JMO and probably too speculative.


IMO the MP is in that river close to where the stone steps are. More thorough search needed.
(edited to add a few words)

 

[Wishingwell]

Called off the search!

Expert diver dramatically ends river search for Nicola Bulley

Superintendent Sally Riley, of Lancashire Police, said it remained a 'possibility' that Nicola Bulley, 45, left the area by one path not covered by CCTV cameras

www.dailymail.co.uk

 

[suzyjackson]

When was the last time that NB was positively identified without doubt? I'm guessing it was by her children when dropped off at school.
The police are saying she didn't leave the field on foot, they were certain the river was her route out.
The search team are now saying she isn't in the river.
What if she never reached the field in the first place and the sightings were of someone else walking her dog and in her clothing?
What if she was abducted between leaving the car at the school and getting to the bench?
What if her coat was removed, the dog and phone were taken and she was taken elsewhere?
A decoy was then leading the dog to the field, used the phone to send a message and email, the calendar on the phone coincidentally flags up the teams call which the decoy joins as a bonus alibi, albeit muted without video and eventually leaves the lead and harness on the bench, eventually drops the phone mid call for someone else to find and then leaves the field by some other means, possibly across the fence in the upper field to Rowanwater where the reported last sighting of NB was which itself could have been a lie or reported by the decoy themselves! It seems that the clothing originally reported was incorrect anyway - ankle length gillet which in fact was a knee length coat.

So many questions!

No need to guess when she was last sighted it's in all the timelines

 

[Woodburnbay]

Everything being said about this case.
If the worst had happened and NB had been attacked and the culprit wanted to expose of a body, the easiest way would be to throw them in the river and if they were found, it would look like an accident.

This is why this feels more like an abduction or something else.

Abducting someone of NB age would be difficult and I can only see this occurring near the caravan park.

Is there someone at caravan park with a car that could then have moved her away.

No body found in river so has to point to An abduction / flight.

 

[ginnyw]

When was the last time that NB was positively identified without doubt? I'm guessing it was by her children when dropped off at school.
The police are saying she didn't leave the field on foot, they were certain the river was her route out.
The search team are now saying she isn't in the river.
What if she never reached the field in the first place and the sightings were of someone else walking her dog and in her clothing?
What if she was abducted between leaving the car at the school and getting to the bench?
What if her coat was removed, the dog and phone were taken and she was taken elsewhere?
A decoy was then leading the dog to the field, used the phone to send a message and email, the calendar on the phone coincidentally flags up the teams call which the decoy joins as a bonus alibi, albeit muted without video and eventually leaves the lead and harness on the bench, eventually drops the phone mid call for someone else to find and then leaves the field by some other means, possibly across the fence in the upper field to Rowanwater where the reported last sighting of NB was which itself could have been a lie or reported by the decoy themselves! It seems that the clothing originally reported was incorrect anyway - ankle length gillet which in fact was a knee length coat.

So many questions!

More and more questions as time goes on. I'm starting to see the whole bench-set-up thing as very handy - I mean, her things placed on a bench right by a 'deep water' sign. Like a series of over-obvious clues. Then again I've been reading non-stop about this for 12 days and might be losing the plot.

 

[curiousbeaver]

Sad. The article seems to state he was found half a mile away, is that right? So he traveled half a mile within the 2 hours. Could have been less of course, but no longer than two hours.

Just to add as an ex local - this boy fell into a wide tidal part of the river near Shard Bridge. There is much more tidal flow and depth variation at this point compared with St Michael’s.

 

[cottonweaver]

Called off the search!

Expert diver dramatically ends river search for Nicola Bulley

Superintendent Sally Riley, of Lancashire Police, said it remained a 'possibility' that Nicola Bulley, 45, left the area by one path not covered by CCTV cameras

www.dailymail.co.uk

Mail is so naughty.
That title!
he literally said - the day that he got the go-ahead - that he'd only spend 3-4 days helping with this search

edited to add
also....
IIRC many days ago, LE said they wanted more cam footage to cover the Garstang road exit possibility so what is with the ' finally admitted' angle?
Mail title says :

Expert diver dramatically ends river search for Nicola Bulley and says she is NOT in the water hours after police finally admitted she could have left on path not covered by CCTV cameras - as her partner visits scene​

 

[Cuko]

1) Qualified, extensively trained, airscent search dogs are typically expected to find people at around 30-50m away, although you do frequently see them finding a scent from around 100m (but not miles)
2) If the wind is going in the wrong direction, or there is any geographical or natural barriers that disturb the scent - dogs can literally miss someone they are within a couple of metres of.

In short, yes, some pet dogs may display natural scenting and finding instincts - but there’s a reason it takes on average 2 years for a search dog and handler to qualify to become operational. Scent and search is an absolute science - and whilst dogs are INCREDIBLE - it takes a lot of work to make it a useful skill to handlers!

Edit to add: Obviously I feel strongly about people better understanding search dogs, no desire to offend anyone!

No offence taken! I certainly can’t speak from your level of experience - just anecdotally from 15 years with my own dog.

 

[Cuko]

New poster here. This is JMO, MOO but…
I think (?) the police have said they haven’t released all details yet. But they were certain she went in the river. Her father had stated she had no health problems so we believe her to be physically strong and fit. What if she was ( early stages) pregnant? In initial stages it’s quite common to feel faint and woozy. It could explain why she may have suddenly had a bad turn and fallen in. And if feeling weak dizzy etc she couldn’t get out easily. This would be sensitive enough not to release maybe especially if it was very early days and family weren’t aware?
Just a thought…?
JMO, MOO
Thanks

I believe NB is 45? That would be an unusually late pregnancy, wouldn’t it?

 

[TTF14]

Camera was off and she was also on mute.

Missing mum muted phone and turned off camera before vanishing on dog walk

Thank you!

 

[hedgetog]

Pretty huge information here, but I guess we aren't allowed to post it until it's shared by a media outlet (I'm sure it will be soon)

Yeah would have thought so. The time gap between the phone being first found and the police contacted doesn't seem to be new information so can hopefully discuss, but it is so odd that (as far as we know) no one else saw Willow and/or NB isn't it for that prolonged period of time- what happened?

 

[zellner]

This isn’t a bad theory, actually.

Possibly feeling sick, went to waters edge without phone to splash water/be sick and fainted.

 

[steelo]

No need to guess when she was last sighted it's in all the timelines

A sighting across a field, or did they actually have eyes on her face?
Someone said they recognised the dog, not her.
If the last sighting oh her was in the upper field then who's to say she ever made it back to the bench anyway?
She could have been abducted into Rowanwater. Has anyone searched the lake in Rowanwater?
If the police would only release some more detailed information.

 

[steelo]

Possibly feeling sick, went to waters edge without phone to splash water/be sick and fainted.

I don't buy it. If you're feeling sick you're not going to risk going down a steep bank to splash 'river water' on your face. Not in the UK anyway! I think the only thing to make NB go to the edge of the bank would be to help someone/something that was in trouble. If she was sat on the bench, phone on the bench with leads while she was listening to a work conference call then stepping away for a few moments is plausible but then I think being attacked is the most likely event.

 

[kittythehare]

A sighting across a field, or did they actually have eyes on her face?
Someone said they recognised the dog, not her.
If the last sighting oh her was in the upper field then who's to say she ever made it back to the bench anyway?
She could have been abducted into Rowanwater. Has anyone searched the lake in Rowanwater?
If the police would only release some more detailed information.

The police have interviewed the witnesses and are protecting them.
If the police believe them we really do not have to thrash it out any further.
It's their investigation.
They have provided the facts.
We have them.
They're all here.

To view this content we will need your consent to set third party cookies.
For more detailed information, see our cookies page.

Accept third party cookies