Found Deceased UK - Nicola Bulley Last Seen Walking Dog Near River - St Michaels on Wyre (Lancashire) #8

[Sleepyface]

I'm done with this guy.

Why on earth is he doing media about the family? Law enforcement have trained people for these tasks.

The cynical among us would note he released a book 2nd Feb!

 

[suzyjackson]

Re: the decoy cctv theory (and not naming names so I don’t get deleted). I think the idea would be:

- NB took children to school as usual, but left dog behind that morning (perhaps under impression someone else would walk dog, or perhaps plans to drive on somewhere to meet someone so can’t take dog, who knows)
- Phone could be left at home. If I’m late for the school run and you can’t find your phone, you just have to go anyway. Kids can’t be late. Mornings are a stressful time in most houses.
- Decoy walks dog out of house past CCTV. If it’s a Ring doorbell, there’s no timestamp in full screen mode. It’s just when you screenshot the image on your phone. Although you’d thing LE would ask to see the original recording. But an individual released the stills to the media, that’s how we’ve seen the images.
- A decoy individual does NBs dog walk in similar dress, hence the sightings. And places phone and harness.
- A different individual intercepts NB after school run

IMO likely? No. Possible? Maybe.

How would you ensure that the children lied about the dog going to school with them?

What about the work and playdate messages sent from the phone, the phones data that knows where it is?

What about the people who saw the dog in the field?

It's wildly implausible

 

[FlyHigh209]

Re: the decoy cctv theory (and not naming names so I don’t get deleted). I think the idea would be:

- NB took children to school as usual, but left dog behind that morning (perhaps under impression someone else would walk dog, or perhaps plans to drive on somewhere to meet someone so can’t take dog, who knows)
- Phone could be left at home. If I’m late for the school run and you can’t find your phone, you just have to go anyway. Kids can’t be late. Mornings are a stressful time in most houses.
- Decoy walks dog out of house past CCTV. If it’s a Ring doorbell, there’s no timestamp in full screen mode. It’s just when you screenshot the image on your phone. Although you’d thing LE would ask to see the original recording. But an individual released the stills to the media, that’s how we’ve seen the images.
- A decoy individual does NBs dog walk in similar dress, hence the sightings. And places phone and harness.
- A different individual intercepts NB after school run

IMO likely? No. Possible? Maybe.

The BBC had the CCTV images listed as released by the friend rather than the police.

If its the wrong person feels like a good chance of human error (wrong day) by someone under alot of stress or figuring out how to work the CCTV.

 

[Just-a-random-girl]

Given that it was reported that NB had just sorted her own mortgage and had just got a new client, does anyone think the 26 Jan announcement on a likely interest rates rise the following week could be significant?

Bank of England to make interest rates announcement - what we know so far

The Bank's interest rates have a major influence on other rates all across the UK and could directly affect people's finances

www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk

Bank of England to raise interest rates 50 points next week

The Bank of England is set to hike interest rates 50 basis points to four per cent next week, markets are betting.

www.cityam.com

 

[Firstsnow4]

very sad to hear that Mr X, so sorry you had to go through this

and yes agree, NB would not have willingly created so much un-clarity and searching for her daughters. IMO..

something doesnt add up ....very very strange case ......

Yes I do agree that my theory doesn’t account for her daughters - I couldn’t ever conceive leaving my son willingly. IMO.

 

[wackyw]

Yes and they found him within hours on the sandbank not far from where he fell in.

?? 1400 hours and maybe almost 15 miles or so ?

 

[DaFroome]

Yes and they found him within hours on the sandbank not far from where he fell in.

Actually found on a sand bank several miles down river I think, not nearby. Having passed over the weir.

This does seem to be a fairly useful reference point for understanding the river flow and how this case might play out to a conclusion.

Important information, in my view.

 

[NextSprint]

Forgive my ignorance, but why was NB treated as a "high risk missing person" from the get-go? There would have had to have been a reason for this.

The National College of Policing guidelines on missing persons "classification" is as follows:

- No apparent risk (absent): Actions to locate the subject and/or gather further information should be agreed with the informant and a latest review time set to reassess the risk.

- Low risk: Proportionate enquiries should be carried out to ensure that the individual has not come to harm.

- Medium risk: This category requires an active and measured response by the police and other agencies in order to trace the missing person and support the person reporting.

- High risk: This category almost always requires the immediate deployment of police resources – action may be delayed in exceptional circumstances, such as searching water or forested areas during hours of darkness. A member of the senior management team must be involved in the examination of initial lines of enquiry and approval of appropriate staffing levels. Such cases should lead to the appointment of an investigating officer (IO) and possibly an SIO, and a police search adviser (PolSA). There should be a press/media strategy and/or close contact with outside agencies. Family support should be put in place where appropriate. The MPB should be notified of the case without undue delay. Children’s services must also be notified immediately if the person is under 18.

The response on Jan 27 was quite clearly a "High risk" response, and there must have been a reason for this.

Missing persons | College of Policing

This page is from APP, the official source of professional practice for policing.

www.college.police.uk

 

[WestLondoner]

Yes, to me they just both look like what I'd think 'a mum' is even now, and I'm way closer to her age than the age of her kids -- I still see the same general mental picture! Sensible but fashionable hair in a conservative colour and style; dark, understated clothing in layers that makes sense to the occasion and weather... That's a school-gate mum to me.

100%. When my sprogs were of primary school age and I did the school run, almost every single mum I observed wore dark jeans tucked into Uggs, a sweater, and a duvet coat with the handbag under the coat. The mothers looked more uniform than the kids did.

NB and her mate are almost certainly simply sporting the current mothers' uniform.

 

[JeremyBentham]

Actually found on a sand bank several miles down river I think, not nearby. Having passed over the weir.

This does seem to be a fairly useful reference point for understanding the river flow and how this case might play out to a conclusion.

Important information, in my view.

After how long was he found?

 

[karakuchi]

The BBC had the CCTV images listed as released by the friend rather than the police.

If its the wrong person feels like a good chance of human error (wrong day) by someone under alot of stress or figuring out how to work the CCTV.

Yes, it could be an honest/simple mistake that has had a ripple effect, as the missing person description is now wrong.

 

[cottonweaver]

He is being helped out by another diver.

It is not going to be at all easy to get out of there. What do you hold onto? The only part of your body which can help you here is your hands and with nothing like a railing to hold onto you are not going to be getting out. You can't grip wet steps with your hands.

IMO the steps may make it more likely someone would go down to the water thinking it was an ok access but getting back out, if you accidentally find yourself in the water, wet clothes, shock and nothing to hold onto ?

I don't think I'd be abe to do that. No way.

I think those steps may be related to anglers. They often build access arrangements down to the water level and either stand in the water with chest waders or make a platform out of a pallet or something.

That diver in the picture is not getting out of there by himself. Look where his hands are !

absolutely

Although my post was just a reply to the claim that the water was shallow at the waters edge where NB is claimed/likely to have fallen in

 

[scottishgal]

how could an imposter have gotten past eye witnesses at 8.50 and 9.10 (or near times) .....doesnt make sense ? imposter knowing when to log into conference call etc

very very farfetched ....my best friend doesnt have access to my office work diary con call numbers ....there are two identical twins on my street and everyone else (I cant ) is easily able to tell them apart

Not impossible, very unlikely

 

[DickieDumDum]

Actually found on a sand bank several miles down river I think, not nearby. Having passed over the weir.

This does seem to be a fairly useful reference point for understanding the river flow and how this case might play out to a conclusion.

Important information, in my view.

It's an excellent reference point and important information, imo. I would expect fairly similar results in this case, of course there may be changes in river topography. Was there a weir in those days, for example? But regardless, I think she will be found in the tidal section at some point in the coming weeks.

 

[Lincolnshirelad]

The article says found 2 months later on sandbanks near the shard bridge

As we have said before, the daily mail and such are notorious for misreporting. I remembered this one hence I knew the 2 hours as we brought it up privately at the start of this conversation.

"Police helicopters were launched and the coastguard called out as members of the public joined in the search along the banks during high tide.

But two hours later when the tide receded the body of Reece Maybury from Rochdale was found on a mudbank at the side of the river, near the foot of the Shard Bridge."

This is the original news article in 5th May 2000

Boy, 2, drowns in river tragedy

DESPITE a frantic search by police and Coastguard services, a two-year-old boy was found drowned on Monday (May1) after he disappeared from the…

www.lancashiretelegraph.co.uk

 

[SOMETHINGWILLDO]

This BBC article credits the CCTV images to Emma White:

Nicola Bulley: Friend shares images of missing mum on day she vanished

Doorbell footage of Nicola Bulley outside her home on the day she disappeared is shared with the BBC.

www.bbc.co.uk

That answers my earlier question on if the police were supplied with the cctv footage or if the police sourced the cctv footage. Thats very interesting. Well spotted.
It appears from that article that the images were released by Emma White.
<modsnip - off limits>

 

[karakuchi]

how could an imposter have gotten past eye witnesses at 8.50 and 9.10 (or near times) .....doesnt make sense ? imposter knowing when to log into conference call etc

very very farfetched ....my best friend doesnt have access to my office work diary con call numbers ....there are two identical twins on my street and everyone else (I cant ) is easily able to tell them apart

Not impossible, very unlikely

Not suggesting that there was an imposter at all.
Suggesting the CCTV footage is incorrect.

 

[Tanzanite]

It’s NB. Would be pretty easy with facial recognition software to say that it’s not NB I think - would be v easily tripped up.
If you look at forehead/nose/chin looks like NB, not the friend

Re: the similarity in the CCTV footage between EW and NB, even if there is a fleeting resemblance (in life, they look very different) with a slightly out-of-focus, hazy image, I don't see how it features in the search for NB.

As an aside, I've taken part in 'Super Recogniser' research/tasks for years, for what it's worth (not a great deal possibly), and compare CCTV images frequently. These don't look particularly the same to me, at a glance, but I do see the aforementioned fleeting similarity. MOO.

 

[kittythehare]

I get that a lead detective or super who would normally be the 'face of the case' can't be on the river bank all day doing media so this is opportunistic, but it seems odd there is no official spokesperson on deck for message control?

He's basically just doing impromptu doorsteps all the time.

Unless police are just all in on drowning so doing see the need for aggressive media handling?

-police are providing daily updates on Facebook and on Twitter and have held two pressers in 5 days.
That is beyond generous.
They have gone above and beyond any call of duty.

Media will hang around until the next story breaks, they are not necessary.

If you join a team, you take direction from team leaders, in this case, the police.
You blend in, not do your own thing or contradict everything they say and do.
You're not the most important person here, the missing person is.

All publicity is not good publicity.

All cops are not bad cops.
Their budgets have been slashed to disgracefully ridiculous paltry sums.. and I'll stop there..

This is not his private search, he was there through the courtesy of Lancashire police. I didn't think it was a good idea.
It may be that he has overstayed his welcome.
MOO

 

[Casseus]

100%. Giving interviews, left, right and centre. Flying into the scene in a helicopter, like a pound shop Batman. He's said more than anybody else. This is a police matter, not the Peter Faulding Show. I think his behaviour is atrocious, personally.

MOO- No wonder the police said No initially, they must know about him. And after a week of hearing how crude he has been regarding Nicola’s body being found and criticising the police efforts, they wanted to protect the family from the dramatics and storms that followed him. Only when the family wanted him have they allowed him to help. But I feel assured they are maintaining the case confidentiality and integrity by not including him in all information. He is only a contractor after all and not with the police force so he shouldn’t be privy to any more information than he needs. JMO MOO