Found Deceased UK - Nicola Bulley Last Seen Walking Dog Near River - St Michaels on Wyre (Lancashire) #8

[J-rock]

Are you saying that confusion over the length of the gilet has contributed to NB not being found?

I really don't think anyone has seen her but not called it in because the gilet was skimming her knees (if it was) rather than nearer the ground. Do you think that a realistic scenario?

No, but I do think it’s significant because an ankle-length gilet sounds like a major trip hazard….knee-length isn’t. In other words, an ankle-length garment would, IMO, make the likelihood of an accident scenario more likely.

 

[NextSprint]

NCA were involved in order to review that LancsPoice were on the right lines, so to speak

she explained that yesterday ( basically ' check my work' peer review thing that an open-minded, professional team might be interested in)

Found Deceased - UK - Nicola Bulley Last Seen Walking Dog Near River - St Michaels on Wyre (Lancashire) #7

No. I should apologise here. I am new to this forum and I failed to add IMO after the statement. I have no knowledge about this whatsoever and my suggestion the dog harness may have been in the River was speculation. Sorry if it appeared to be factual. I did not intend this and will be more...

www.websleuths.com

Interesting though, to see what the NCA actually does:

What we investigate - National Crime Agency

The National Crime Agency leads the UK's fight to cut serious and organised crime.

www.nationalcrimeagency.gov.uk

 

[I wonder]

Respectfully it is not that simple.

Look at how another police force explains how it assesses "risk level" in missing persons. It is about the person, not the circumstances:

How we assess the level of risk:​

We will assess the level of risk by building up as accurate a picture of the person and their personal circumstances as possible. To do this we will take in to account such things as:

• the person’s age
• whether they need essential medication or treatment
• whether they are on the Child Protection Register.

We will also consider the circumstances of the disappearance, such as whether:

• the disappearance is out of character
• there is a suspicion of murder
• the missing person has financial, employment or relationship problems.

Missing People

To report a missing person, fill in our online form or call 101. If it is an emergency and you feel that the missing person may be at risk of immediate harm, dial 999. There is no time limit on when you can report a missing person – you don’t have to wait 24 hours.

www.norfolk.police.uk

I was trying to be succinct and to the point. Not every single box has to be ticked, if a couple of factors are present, that’s sufficient.

 

[Beginnersleuth]

We don't know if the weir was there 45 years ago?

The article says it was:

I've seen the TV pictures of the river near where Nicola went missing and it doesn't look that deep or fast-flowing. But I've also looked on a website which charts river levels and there had been a spike on January 26, the day before she vanished.
"I think the river conditions were pretty similar when Roger went missing and he was obviously swept over the weir and into the tidal part of the river. He has found near Shard Bridge which is a fair distance away from St Michael's.

 

[DaFroome]

We don't know if the weir was there 45 years ago?

The report says clearly it was

 

[in2thegate]

I fear the plot in this tragic tragic story is about to thicken.

 

[karakuchi]

I wonder why Police haven't released a clear, sharp CCTV/doorbell image of Nicola en-route, with Willow, close to where she was last seen.

You think this would be a better memory-jog for anyone who had seen her.

The image we have is "NB" at her house in Inskip, 4 miles / 10 min drive away from the school.

 

[Wishbone]

Agree totally. As you say if she was heading on her usual route towards the beach then Willow would swim and be damp when found.
I do feel something occurred which made Nicola deviate from that route .. and likely in the upper field area. It is here where, according to timeline she is busy on her phone.. writing email then text then dialling into Teams. To do those three things means she is focussed on thinking with her head bowed over her phone. I do it myself sometimes whilst on dog walks. You stand still for a while and concentrate. Either something occurs in upper field or she
continues back down to the bench and it happens around there.

I also had a thought about Poo bags for Willow. Normally dog walkers carry a few in pockets or a little bag. Is there a poo bin in the vicinity? Do people tend to pick up after their dogs? It could provide clues if we knew.
Had the lead been mentioned or just the harness.

It matters whether the phone was found on the bench or on the ground. I wonder if we’re clear on this .

Agree the phone is very disturbing that it was left anywhere. All the passwords saved in it, bills that get paid online, credit and debit information, contacts, apps, on and on. My son recently had his cell stolen and fortunately it was locked but he still had to change all his information and practically rebuild his life. It seems to me something truly abrupt had to have happened to leave that phone so vulnerable.

 

[cottonweaver]

Interesting though, to see what the NCA actually does:

What we investigate - National Crime Agency

The National Crime Agency leads the UK's fight to cut serious and organised crime.

www.nationalcrimeagency.gov.uk

Thanks, will take look later.
In the meantime why do you think the NCA have 'signed-off' on LancsPolice approach, if, it contradicts their own advice?

link for that

Found Deceased - UK - Nicola Bulley Last Seen Walking Dog Near River - St Michaels on Wyre (Lancashire) #7

No. I should apologise here. I am new to this forum and I failed to add IMO after the statement. I have no knowledge about this whatsoever and my suggestion the dog harness may have been in the River was speculation. Sorry if it appeared to be factual. I did not intend this and will be more...

www.websleuths.com

 

[Firstsnow4]

Oooh nice catch, and the answer given was a redirection instead of a straight yes or no. Hmmm.

I think this would fit with why police made it high risk missing person and why PA called the police immediately. IMO.

 

[Forget-me-Not]

Apologise if this has already been asked, but does anyone know if the weir would have been there 45 years ago when the boy that drowned there was found 2 months later?

https://www.lep.co.uk/news/nicola-bulley-we-know-her-familys-pain-say-preston-family-who-lost-a-son-in-the-same-stretch-of-river-on-the-same-day-45-years-ago-4019028

I don’t know about the weir at St Michael’s but this poor lad was a passenger on a motorbike crossing a narrow bridge at Woodplumpton near Preston, it was involved in a crash and he was thrown off into a fast running brook which fed into the River Wyre. Very sad.

 

[DaFroome]

Which location?

Mudflats at/near Shard Bridge

 

[Just-a-random-girl]

A man went missing walking home along the banks of the River Hull in December. He did not fall in the water but succumbed to cold weather and was found in a nearby farmer's field (hypothermia). He was a regular dog walker along those banks and knew the area well. If NB did fall in the water, yes, she could have got out elsewhere (e.g. hypothermia).

Tragedy of Jamie Scott who died walking home in sub-zero temperatures

Tributes describe Jamie as a fantastic grandad and a kind-hearted dog lover

www.hulldailymail.co.uk

On this, can I just add that it is not beyond the realms of possibility that she got out further up - or at the other side - and was then abducted by someone who initially helped her. It may seem fanciful but there are other cases where individuals go to someone for help (e.g. vulnerable) and then are taken advantage of by an opportunist.

 

[martinwatts5]

What distance have Peter Fowlding and his team searched?

 

[Normal Norm]

I fear the plot in this tragic tragic story is about to thicken.

Please tell us your thoughts.

 

[NextSprint]

I was trying to be succinct and to the point. Not every single box has to be ticked, if a couple of factors are present, that’s sufficient.

Yeah I get you, but ultimately this was deemed high risk from the beginning. There must have been a reason for that IMO, that is more personal to NB than to the location of her phone.

I was playing devil's advocate with my partner last night and we couldn't find a scenario where either of us would call 999 because a school phoned one of us and said they'd found our phone and dog by a river. We'd both first try other avenues, unless we knew the one who was missing had an extra risk element.

 

[kittythehare]

Mudflats at/near Shard Bridge

Thanks..not sure.

 

[Firstsnow4]

Willingly, of course not. Sometimes we loose the will & that cannot make sense to others or even that same person outside that condition.

100% that. I have been there.

 

[DancingMuse]

I said it before but I think the body was located yesterday by a police diver. IMO this was why they used the language they did. You would not want to tell everyone as there will be an awful lot of tourists turning up to watch which is actually rather unpleasant.
JMO the body will be salvaged today.

Or, just like the case in California of the young man, Blaze: The body was salvaged at night. Quietly, with no press and onlookers around.

 

[TTF14]

I'm so sorry this is probably something that has been talked about multiple times, but the conference call she was on.....was she only listening and not talking? Did anyone hear anything?

Be gentle. I've been immersed in the Murdaugh trial .