UK - Nurse Lucy Letby, Faces 22 Charges - 7 Murder/15 Attempted Murder of Babies #18

[katydid23]

I sometimes wonder if it makes sense to make a two predictive models, starting from 2011, and ending with 2020, of the NICU mortality. One, assuming LL was a murderer, and another, that she was not, all other factors being equal. To see if there is a rise in NICU mortality in 2015-2016 assuming no murderer on the unit. And if there still is predicted rise in NICU mortality, do something- isn’t it called regression analysis? - to determine what other factors could contribute. In other words, could we prove/disprove by statistics alone? For any event, there are so many various explanations.

I don't see how it could be realistically contributed to other factors anymore, like suboptimal care or coincidence, in my mind. Looking at the alleged circumstances surrounding the last 4 babies specifically, are so damning for the defense, imo.

 

[Tortoise]

9:02am

The trial of Lucy Letby, who denies murdering seven babies at the Countess of Chester Hospital neonatal unit and attempting to murder 10 more, is expected to continue today (Thursday, April 27).
We will be bringing you updates throughout the day.

9:10am

The trial is now in its 25th week before a jury.
Today, the prosecution is expected to finish reading out police interviews which were carried out with Lucy Letby following her arrests.

Recap: Lucy Letby trial, Thursday, April 27

The trial of Lucy Letby, who denies murdering seven babies at the Countess of Chester Hospital neonatal unit and attempting to murder 10 more, is…

www.chesterstandard.co.uk

 

[katydid23]

yayyyyy---Chester is back reporting.

 

[JosieJo]

Dbm

 

[Tortoise]

Dan O'Donoghue

@MrDanDonoghue
·
36s

I'll be live tweeting Lucy Letby's murder trial from Manchester Crown Court again this morning. The nurse is accused of murdering seven babies and attacking 10 others at the Countess of Chester Hospital between June 2015 and June 2016 - she denies all charges

 

[marynnu]

I sometimes wonder if it makes sense to make a two predictive models, starting from 2011, and ending with 2020, of the NICU mortality. One, assuming LL was a murderer, and another, that she was not, all other factors being equal. To see if there is a rise in NICU mortality in 2015-2016 assuming no murderer on the unit. And if there still is predicted rise in NICU mortality, do something- isn’t it called regression analysis? - to determine what other factors could contribute. In other words, could we prove/disprove by statistics alone? For any event, there are so many various explanations.

The thing we need to remember is that most of the incidents were not fatal, so looking at number of deaths only gives part of the story.. In addition, while we've all got tied up in the numbers (me included) it's as much about the nature of these events as the outcome. Happening unexpectedly to babies who were not a concern, no medical explanations, unusual difficulties in resuscitation. There were several clinical reviews of the events before the police were called in looking for possible causes. No amount of revisiting will change any of that.
All JMO.

 

[ColourPurple]

The thing we need to remember is that most of the incidents were not fatal, so looking at number of deaths only gives part of the story.. In addition, while we've all got tied up in the numbers (me included) it's as much about the nature of these events as the outcome. Happening unexpectedly to babies who were not a concern, no medical explanations, unusual difficulties in resuscitation. There were several clinical reviews of the events before the police were called in looking for possible causes. No amount of revisiting will change any of that.
All JMO.

Also one of the doctors said up until June 2015 it was rare for them to have to resort to using adrenaline and that then the use of adrenaline suddenly became commonplace

 

[katydid23]

OKAy, HERE IS AN INTERESTING TIMING COINCIDENCE:

https://twitter.com/MrDanDonoghue

We're now onto summaries for Child N - a baby boy it is claimed Ms Letby attempted to murder three times - once on 3 June 2016, and twice on 15 June 2016.

AND THEN:
We're now onto the summaries for Child O, a baby triplet who Ms Letby is alleged to have murdered on 23 June 2016.

https://twitter.com/MrDanDonoghue
@MrDanDonoghue
·
Manchester Crown Court has previously heard how Child O was in good condition and stable up until the afternoon of 23 June when he suffered a "remarkable deterioration" and died

·
OKAY, so on June 15th, 2016,^^^ LL was allegedly caring for baby N, before his 3rd collapse.

EIGHT DAYS LATER SHE RETURNED FROM IBIZA, and was caring for Baby O, the first of the two triplets to die.

So a baby collapsed unexpectedly right before she left on vacation. And 8 days later, the very day she returned, the first of three collapses began?


DURING THAT 8 DAYS SHE WAS GONE, [ June 16th to 24th?] WERE THERE ANY UNEXPLAINED COLLAPSES, NEEDING MULTIPLE DOSES OF ADRENALINE?

 

[Eloise]

Yep. One of the podcast episodes laid it out like that, and it became so... obvious how clear it must have been to other staff by then.

(how everything was fine on the ward when she was gone and as soon as she was back, the collapses resumed. On the same episode they also pointed out how when that other baby went to the other hospital she did great - great enough to come back... where she collapsed again)

 

[JosieJo]

10:36am

Members of the jury have now come into court.
There are, the judge tells the jury, "an unfortunate set of circumstances" which mean the next two weeks of the trial will only see the trial sitting for two days each.

Recap: Lucy Letby trial, Thursday, April 27

The trial of Lucy Letby, who denies murdering seven babies at the Countess of Chester Hospital neonatal unit and attempting to murder 10 more, is…

www.chesterstandard.co.uk

 

[Parker Knoll]

What on EARTH is going on ?
2 days a week ?

 

[JosieJo]

10:36am

Members of the jury have now come into court.
There are, the judge tells the jury, "an unfortunate set of circumstances" which mean the next two weeks of the trial will only see the trial sitting for two days each.

Recap: Lucy Letby trial, Thursday, April 27

The trial of Lucy Letby, who denies murdering seven babies at the Countess of Chester Hospital neonatal unit and attempting to murder 10 more, is…

www.chesterstandard.co.uk

I wonder if these "circumstances" were the discussion in court without the jury this week?

 

[Eloise]

The trial was due to finish around now. I feel sorry for the jurors, honestly. Their lives are in limbo.

 

[Parker Knoll]

Sorry josie … we crossed comments at the same time !
Must be relating to yesterdays hearing clearly.
IMHO

 

[Phoenix Lazarus]

This won't be finished by the end of May.

 

[JosieJo]

10:40am

The read through the interviews continues with Child Q.
Letby recalls the medical observations/procedures carried out at the neonatal unit.
She recalls that Mary Griffith was the other nurse in room 2, and there was a concern Child Q had a low temperature, but was 'well enough to be left'.
She recalls she had been in room 1, returned to room 2, and saw Child Q had had 'an intervention' and she recorded Child Q having a 'mottled' skin appearance.

10:44am

Letby said she believed she told Mary Griffith when she was leaving room 2. She recalls the other nurse was at the incubator.

She said she came back from room 1 and saw there was at least one nurse treating Child Q when she returned, and there was administration of Neopuff by the other staff.

She said she did not see Child Q vomit, but it would have been described to her.

Letby said she was unsure why Child Q would have vomited. She says sometimes babies do vomit and that can lead to a desaturation.

Recap: Lucy Letby trial, Thursday, April 27

The trial of Lucy Letby, who denies murdering seven babies at the Countess of Chester Hospital neonatal unit and attempting to murder 10 more, is…

www.chesterstandard.co.uk

Letby tells police she does not recall if she aspirated Child Q.

When asked about the excess air aspirated from his stomach, she suggested babies sometimes gulp air when they vomit.

 

[JosieJo]

10:47am

Letby says she believes she continued to look after Child Q as her designated baby following the desaturation.
In a follow-up interview, Letby said she did not cause Child Q's collapse. She said she had taken observations and raised Child Q's incubator temperature.
She said Child Q was "stable" before she left room 2.
She denies being responsible for Child Q's collapse, or injecting air into Child Q.

10:52am

In a third police interview, Letby says she did not give Child Q anything prior to the collapse.

She denies leaving the room so the blame for the collapse could be put on another member of nursing staff.

Asked about a text message she sent to a doctor colleague about whether she should feel 'worried' about what Dr John Gibbs had been saying, Letby said: "I became aware of Dr Gibbs asking where I was - it was discussed then, obviously...I was concerned that I was going to be a problem"

Asked if she was seeing reassurance from the doctor she had messaged, Letby agrees.

She adds: "I wouldn't have just left a baby unattended," having said Mary Griffith was also in room 2.

Recap: Lucy Letby trial, Thursday, April 27

The trial of Lucy Letby, who denies murdering seven babies at the Countess of Chester Hospital neonatal unit and attempting to murder 10 more, is…

www.chesterstandard.co.uk

 

[marynnu]

Also one of the doctors said up until June 2015 it was rare for them to have to resort to using adrenaline and that then the use of adrenaline suddenly became commonplace

True, and just going by my own experience, needing to use adrenaline is out of the ordinary on any neonatal unit. That alone would ring alarm bells IMO.

 

[JosieJo]

11:02am

The interviews now move on to more general, 'overarching' questions including questions on exhibits found at Letby's address.
Letby was asked about a post-it note: "I just wrote it as everything had gone on top of me."
"I felt people were blaming my practice...and made me feel guilty...they made me stop talking to people.
"I was blaming myself, not for what I've done, but [for the way people were blaming me]."
Asked about the underlined 'not good enough' note, Letby replies that was what people felt she was in terms of her competence.
She says she did not know how to feel or what to do.
"It just felt like it was all happening out of my control."
Letby says she received some anti-depressants from her GP.
She said she had been told she may have to redo her clinical care 'competencies' as part of the process, and she would not be the only member of nursing staff to do so.
Letby said she had concerns over the raised mortality rate in the neonatal unit, saying there were more babies with more complex needs, and this was "unusual".
After being removed from the unit in July 2016, she believed other staff felt she was not competent, and "they were going to think I had done something wrong", "that the police woyuld get involved and I would lose my job".
She added that she "loved her job".
Asked about why she thought the police would get involved, Letby replies: "I don't know, I just panicked."
She said she thought she would be referred to the NMC - [the Nursing and Midwifery Council] - and they would refer it to the police.
She said she felt 'so isolated and alone', as she could only speak to two friends, and had written a 'kill myself' note.
She said she believed she had not done anything wrong, but was worried they would believe she was not good enough.

Recap: Lucy Letby trial, Thursday, April 27

The trial of Lucy Letby, who denies murdering seven babies at the Countess of Chester Hospital neonatal unit and attempting to murder 10 more, is…

www.chesterstandard.co.uk

 

[marynnu]

Interesting that she was worried about the police getting involved? Or not?

'After being removed from the unit in July 2016, she believed other staff felt she was not competent, and "they were going to think I had done something wrong", "that the police would get involved and I would lose my job".

She added that she "loved her job".

Asked about why she thought the police would get involved, Letby replies: "I don't know, I just panicked." '