GUILTY UK - Nurse Lucy Letby, murder of babies, 7 Guilty of murder verdicts; 8 Guilty of attempted murder; 2 Not Guilty of attempted; 5 hung re attempted #38

[Parker Knoll]

The Sun and Shoo Lee …. What bedfellows.

 

[WaneLyrical]

The Sun and Shoo Lee …. What bedfellows.

Any thoughts on the actual content?

 

[Parker Knoll]

I will watch it late WL and give my thoughts if anyone was remotely interested.

 

[Charlot123]

Sort of.

1) There are a number of qualified, authoritative statisticians who have reviewed the case and stated that the chart is evidentially worthless: Gill is far from alone.

2) The "statistics debate" is absolutely relevant to the discussion on this message board. The reason being that in the event posters do not understand the bare essentials of statistics, then of course you will have posters concluding: "the chart itself was nothing more than a visual presentation of the fact that she was present", and other posters agreeing with it. This is an erroneous statement, masquerading as a reasonable argument, being peddled around the board; when really it should be taken to task as complete and utter nonsense (which of course has no place in a reasonable discussion). There's that as well as the fact that Prosecutor Nick Johnson put forth an argument built upon statistics (in his own words).

We all poorly know statistics to start with. I just re-read Roy Meadow (Sally Clark’s) case. Had I already not read about his fallacy, I’d probably use the same equation, 1/8500 x 1/8500. But the fact that two “cot deaths” in one family may be connected (genetically, as it was found out) and hence, you don’t treat variables as independent, would not have occurred to me. I hope that I would have had more common sense than Meadows and say, “the odds look impossible” and consult a statistician. Why don’t doctors do it more often? -statistics is a complex science.

In case when statisticians are invited, and listened to, the result is very different. I’d advise people to read about the cluster of brain tumors, mostly benign, affecting about 7 current or former nurses on its 5th-floor maternity unit of Newton-Wellesley Hospital in Massachusetts, as reported in early 2025.

Investigating uses a measurable, scientific approach. The committee ruled out environmental factors; they invited statisticians and found out that statistically, this cluster is not significant. (This is difficult, to look at the cluster and hear that it can be random!) They keep the door open. The investigators dispersed the panic and are looking at other factors the only nurses on maternity wards could be subjected to. With good scientific approach, should there be any, yet unknown, correlation between some factor and the OB nurses’ work, it will be found out.

This is the approach of the XXI century, IMO. But to get answers, one has to be ready to invite scientists to his unit, and work with them.

 

[alb1on]

I find it bizarre that anyone should dispute that a conviction is unsafe when so many of the witnesses and evidence has been refuted or undermined. I appreciate that some have a belief in the infallibility of court proceedings which is on a par with religious belief but that is not how the English court system works (although it may be the case elsewhere). When expert evidence is brought into question the Court of Appeal is there to review the conviction. In this case multiple strands have been questioned by experts considerably more qualified than the witnesses. That makes it an open and shut case for review regardless of the thoughts of those lacking the necessary expertise. I spent my entire working life focused on statistics as an underwriting director and if any of my staff had suggested the statistical evidence in this case was a suitable basis for a decision I would have moved them on.

 

[alb1on]

We all poorly know statistics to start with. I just re-read Roy Meadow (Sally Clark’s) case. Had I already not read about his fallacy, I’d probably use the same equation, 1/8500 x 1/8500. But the fact that two “cot deaths” in one family may be connected (genetically, as it was found out) and hence, you don’t treat variables as independent, would not have occurred to me. I hope that I would have had more common sense than Meadows and say, “the odds look impossible” and consult a statistician. Why don’t doctors do it more often? -statistics is a complex science.

In the Roy Meadow's case statistics was not a complex science. I would have expected a school pupil doing maths to understand the difference between independent and dependent events.

 

[rvlvr]

Any thoughts on the actual content?

It’s wild to me that Professor Lee and a frankly overwhelming number of eminent, internationally recognised experts in various fields relevant to this case, can be written off on this forum as a ‘mob’!

Reluctant as I am to engage with the Sun’s content, I watched the video and found it very informative. Professor Lee is everything you’d hope for from an expert. What a contrast with the narcissistic Dr Evans!

 

[Charlot123]

In the Roy Meadow's case statistics was not a complex science. I would have expected a school pupil doing maths to understand the difference between independent and dependent events.

The whole fact that cot deaths in the same family were not independent was neither known nor discussed. In fact, I thought on reading about the case “what if both kids had narcolepsy?”, but no one in the articles of that time was asking these questions!

But mostly, in such trials, one has to turn to specialists, and if medical statisticians exist, it is strange not to use their expertise.