• #2,981
You know, there may be a certain bias introduced by the framework of the court. Everything that comes from Lucy Letby has been vetted in the concept of the trial.

When in 2016 (•a woman of my country was running for an important position*), I had zero problems with her, but for some reason, here she was considered “unlikable”. Later, I realized why. She was naturally camera-shy and looked awkward on TV and podium. So, boring, not a natural actress, sounded dull… what she said made sense but she did not take the time to train herself on an unfavorite medias. Introverts never look well on media.

(There is a reason why psychiatrists are strongly advised not to make a diagnosis without seeing someone in person.)

Just a good example how we should not rely on a media or excerpts or letters, even.

You were watching Lucy when the press already named her “a killer nurse”. There is a chance that if you read the same but in a different context (a nurse saved a drowning child), you’d come to a different conclusion.
I was watching her and listening to her answers to direct questions concerning the charges against her. I was forming an opinion based upon those answers. It was not made because of a bias because I clearly had no idea if she was guilty of these extreme charges.

In fact, I was leaning towards innocence. The charges were too brutal and horrible to believe.

After a week on the stand, I saw her ability to manipulate, deflect and deny, even when the facts and evidence were right in front of her.
You asked me about him, I said what I thought.
You say those things with no evidence, imo.

He clearly explained during the trial, why he began to be suspicious. It was not out of fear or delusion. It was logical and rational and he turned out to be correct. IMO
Well, this is a very simple situation. The money is missing from the till is a direct connection with “someone is stealing it”.

Probably 90%. There are other choices, such as “the cashier or myself is bad at math, doesn’t count the money, gives too much charge back” , or “I was pitch drunk yesterday and forgot that I took it myself”. But all other explanations could probably amount to 10%. 90% chance, as you said, the explanation is, “someone was stealing”.

But what if instead of controlling for the most obvious factor, stealing by the employee, one says, “OK, there is 0,001% chance that mice ate the money, let us start with inviting pest control”?

Because this is how it would look in NICU.

The explanation “the babies collapsed because we have a killer on the unit” doesn’t stand up to criticism. How often do “killers on the unit” happen? 0.0001% if that? Why start with them if other causes take precedence?
Again, you are making up facts. No one began with the serial killer notion.

Even after his suspicions in the first 4 incidents because Letby was the nurse involved , his first thought were that maybe she was lacking experience, making bad decisions or mistakes, and needed more training. It was NOT suspicion that she was being malicious in any way.
The Royal College of Pediatric and Child Health Review mentioned “ inadequate staffing and senior cover”. Start with it! Hire more nurses, come to the unit more often, Dr, Breary, hire one more senior doctor; then look at statistics.

That^^ was always something the doctors were wanting and asking for.

But these collapses were not caused by understaffing or lack of care. We saw the detailed medical notes that were filled out every 15 to 20 minutes for each child. Every one of them had constant supervision and attention. The documentation was shown in court. The treatments were shown with receipts for prescriptions and observation logs showing who administered them and when.

There were notes showing feedings, diaper changes, cuddling times with family, sleep schedules, initialed by the designated nurses.

These babies died horrific deaths, sudden collapses, many with massive blood loss, dire injuries, brain damage, internal organ shut downs. Those kinds of injuries are the result of assault, not 'lack of senior cover.'
Infection. Fix that darn water system, take swabs from everywhere, including ventilators tubing (Stenotrophomonas maltophilia), clean the unit, move it to a newer building, after all. When fecal material flooded the water system, Dr. Breary had full right to call Tony Chambers, Ian Harvey or whoever and say, “fix it all today or we all leave”.
Guess what, IT WAS FIXED THAT VERY DAY. And there were no infections that came from that broken pipe incident. NONE of the babies that Letby was charged with, had infections from plumbing etc.
Talk to the GYN department. In 2015, the practice of using 2-3 embryos for IVF is becoming obsolete. Demand adjustment, use of better genetic screening and better IVF practices.

(Send Dr. Jayaram to take ventilators classes. We all know that bad vent settings might be deleterious.)

There are too many things that need to be changed first to improve statistics before anyone starts chasing killers in NICU.
Again, you are conflating things. THESE victims in this trial had nothing to do with IVF or ventilator settings or the water system.
But the truth it, doctor Breary is not an insightful leader. He says, “we were doing everything as usual”. Well, maybe the answer is, then do it better!
Dr Breary was a hero in this case. He spearheaded the efforts to get Letby off of the floor and in a desk job. The collapses stopped immediately.
This being said - I am not stating that she is “absolutely innocent”.
Oh? Just slightly innocent?
Data presented doesn’t point at her being guilt.
The data presented in court did point to her guilt according to the judge and the jurors.
I am saying “the trial is a travesty and the conviction is unsafe.”
I disagree, obviously.
Also, “there were many other reasons for increased mortality, way, way above the possibility of a killer on the unit”.
Yes, both things can be true. The hospital can need reform and better staffing and better conditions and the hospital can be hosting a serial killer unbeknownst to them.
 
  • #2,982
This reads like satire, like every post you make. Really can't take any of it seriously whatsoever. It doesn't make any sense.

JMO

JMO

And they say the nastiness only emanates from one side of this debate! (Putting JMO after everything doesn’t give you free rein to be rude! JMO!)
 
  • #2,983
I disagree. He qualified his uncertainty as being 'tiny tiny tiny ' because no one actually 'saw her' kill any babies. That makes sense.

The problem is, we cannot use that excuse---no one saw her do it' ---because the method of attack was one which never would be seen by anyone.

If one expected to see someone before giving them a guilty verdict, the killer could carry on for years and never be convicted.


I think that was an honest concern but that is how these kinds of cases play out. There is always a tiny tiny tiny bit of doubt. Beyond a reasonable doubt does not mean there is absolutely not a tiny tiny tiny bit of concern. IMO
Indeed!

And this applies to all murders. Are we now to say that no one can be convicted of murder - or any crime - unless they were seen by someone while committing it? The notion is complete lunacy but people are protesting her innocence on those very grounds!
 
  • #2,984
How can people not be troubled by the fact that one of the prosecution's key witnesses was himself under investigation for harming patients? Yet, the jury was never informed that it was advised nor were they informed that the tribunal had concluded that Hindmarsh's ability to serve as an expert witness was compromised by the allegations against him. That's a problem.

Letby had horrible legal representation, and I don't know what to think of the poor work they did.
I find it baffling. Almost as baffling as a hospital that allowing numerous babies to be murdered at their facility by an individual they employ but believe to be a killer.
I take it that you are qualified to comment, then?

She in no way had "horrible" representation. She had one of the best KC's currently practising.
 
  • #2,985
Letby had a very good defence team working for her. Nobody has yet shown that Letby did not get a fair trial, certainly not the online conspiracy theorists.
Moreover, her submission to the CCRC makes NO claim that the trial was unfair nor that she had insufficient counsel, as far as I'm aware.

If both of those are true, as her supporters claim, then why isn't she saying it?
 
  • #2,986
Indeed!

And this applies to all murders. Are we now to say that no one can be convicted of murder - or any crime - unless they were seen by someone while committing it? The notion is complete lunacy but people are protesting her innocence on those very grounds!
In those cases there’s normally strong evidence to suggest there’s been a murder in the first place. No such evidence exists in this case. On the contrary, the medical evidence supports natural causes of death, despite that the prosecution experts asserted.
 
  • #2,987
In those cases there’s normally strong evidence to suggest there’s been a murder in the first place. No such evidence exists in this case. On the contrary, the medical evidence supports natural causes of death, despite that the prosecution experts asserted.

It’s fascinating how certain you are.
 
  • #2,988
In those cases there’s normally strong evidence to suggest there’s been a murder in the first place. No such evidence exists in this case. On the contrary, the medical evidence supports natural causes of death, despite that the prosecution experts asserted.

Indeed.

If I strangle someone to death in a dark park, chances are no one will notice. Do it in daylight, and I still might not be seen, but it’s more likely that I will be. Do it by an entrance on a main road, and I’d do well to get away with it once, never mind repeatedly. To put it bluntly, hospital units aren’t like dark parks.

It’s just not true, either, for people to say that we shouldn’t expect to see any direct evidence in at least some of these cases - the insulin ones, surely, being the most obvious. There were no eyewitnesses, and no evidence of tampering on any of the bags, by anyone, never mind Letby. There was no evidence of insulin going missing either, never mind that Letby ever took any.

Guilters might say, well, the amount needed to poison these babies was tiny and the bags were later discarded. And that’s true! That’s a good explanation as to why no evidence exists. But that’s the point - the idea that Letby tampered with the bags is just that, an idea, and one that’s entirely unsupported by evidence.
 
  • #2,989
Do you believe in witches?

Because I don't.

I don't believe in ghosts either. Nor in energy vampires or seers.

But here is an interesting psychological trivia. If a person grew up in a culture or even household that believes in ghosts or witches and then starts seeing them or feeling their presence, usually he is not psychotic, they say. His brain is simply culturally primed to accept such an interpretation of sensory stimuli as "possible".

And this is why people can not agree. If someone was born and raised in an agnostic environment and someone else, in a system that accepts existence of evil spirits, witches, "energy vampires", it is impossible to construct a meaningful dialog between them. This is why, indeed, one needs statisticians and scientists to step in. Because if there is no need to add Lucy to explain the rise of deaths on the unit, if statistically they do not make an anomaly by themselves, and furthermore, no one ever caught her doing any direct harm, then why is she serving a life term? For Breary's observation bias?

His brain connected frequent presence of a night nurse on the unit with a bad cycle of NICU critical events and his opinion was set. Moreover, I wonder if he started expecting things not to happen when Lucy was away. If there is an element of self-hypnosis here. And then we add another personality, a dramatic cinemaphile, and the picture gets more dimension. It becomes a shared illusory fear.

When all is said and done, it will be interesting to examine the situation from the purely psychological standpoint. That the trial experts and the media started using the situation for financial gain is obvious. But initially, was it Breary's own suspiciousness and susceptibility to odd beliefs, or was there someone else close to him and quietly paranoid who persuaded Breary and he rushed to check the shift rotas? I don't know. That unit was full of conspicuous personalities and poorly run.

It was not the rise in deaths by themselves which caused the doctors to suspect Letby. It was the fact they were unexpected and unexplained. When the triplets died that was when the consultants couldn't not act. Two almost 34 week babies over 2 kg, well enough to breathe by themselves, digest milk deteriorate suddenly die for no natural reason. Baby O has a non accidental injury. If the unit had a lot of very premature babies or end of life babies a surge in deaths wouldn't be suspicious.
 
  • #2,990
So Breary is a lead doctor of an inflated-level NICU who, as it seems, instead of finding a suitable therapist to deal with own stressors, created a huge, expensive country-wide trial mess, based on own fears, suspiciousness and limited general knowledge.
What on earth are you talking about? Questioning the mental health of one of the whistle-blowers, and then moaning about the cost of a trial that involved the murder of babies...
 
  • #2,991
I am saying “the trial is a travesty and the conviction is unsafe.” Also, “there were many other reasons for increased mortality, way, way above the possibility of a killer on the unit”.
We have repeatedly asked for evidence of those other reasons. We're still waiting.

Also, it doesn't matter how many times conspiracy theorists say the conviction is "unsafe", it isn't until evidence challenging the convictions is presented.
 
  • #2,992
  • #2,993
It’s just not true, either, for people to say that we shouldn’t expect to see any direct evidence in at least some of these cases - the insulin ones, surely, being the most obvious. There were no eyewitnesses, and no evidence of tampering on any of the bags, by anyone, never mind Letby. There was no evidence of insulin going missing either, never mind that Letby ever took any.

Guilters might say, well, the amount needed to poison these babies was tiny and the bags were later discarded. And that’s true! That’s a good explanation as to why no evidence exists. But that’s the point - the idea that Letby tampered with the bags is just that, an idea, and one that’s entirely unsupported by evidence.
RSBM

It's not true that insulin being in the bags is entirely unsupported by the evidence.

When baby F's double quantity of glucose was disconnected for two hours his blood sugars actually increased. They then dropped again when the TPN was reconnected.

The blood glucose had 'started to rise spontaneously' between 10.30am-noon, Prof Hindmarsh said, during the time the fluids were not being administered.


Baby F vomited when his feed bag was first connected, by Letby, and his heart rate rocketed.

He says the first contaminated bag was put up for Child F at 12.25am, and Child F vomited less than an hour later. A medical expert said this was a symptom of low blood sugar, as a self-defence mechanism for the body. There was also a 'sudden rise in heart rate' as the body produced adrenaline to combat it. The blood sugar level of 0.8 was a "life-threatening situation for [Child F]."

12:55pm

No other child on the unit was receiving TPN bags that day, in the case of Child F.


There is other good evidence that Letby knew that insulin was in the feed bag, despite it never being their practice to administer insulin (when prescribed) via the feed bag. She asked police if his feed bags had been kept, before they told her what evidence they were working with.

Police had asked why Letby had asked about the nutrition bags.
Letby had said to police there may "have been an issue with something else."
Letby tells the court the issue may have been insulin coming from outside the unit. She says at that point it was not known where the insulin had come from, and it was not known if it was in the bags.


That's before considering other evidence such as the C-Peptides, the blood sugar readings, the fact that Letby and only one other member of nursing staff was on shift for both poisonings, and the fact that Letby was taking the blood sugar readings, and then texted about it all day when she went off shift, and he wasn't even her designated patient. She left her fingerprint in the form of these behaviours.

As regards the insulin stock, the orders doubled in 2015.

https://twitter.com/MrDanDonoghue
Court has just been read a statement from a pharmacy technician who has worked at the Countess of Chester since 1991. A review of her records show that in 2014, three vials of insulin were ordered to the neonatal unit, six in 2015 and two in 2016.


There was a bucket load of evidence.
 
  • #2,994
It was not the rise in deaths by themselves which caused the doctors to suspect Letby. It was the fact they were unexpected and unexplained. When the triplets died that was when the consultants couldn't not act. Two almost 34 week babies over 2 kg, well enough to breathe by themselves, digest milk deteriorate suddenly die for no natural reason. Baby O has a non accidental injury. If the unit had a lot of very premature babies or end of life babies a surge in deaths wouldn't be suspicious.
Yes it was even more nuanced than most people realise; it wasn't just a rise in deaths, it was the fact that the consultants noticed that LL was always in the vicinity or was somehow involved in them or the non-fatal incidents and the resus or the aftermath, etc. In certain events it was clear that she was shoving her presence into them when people didn't want her to. She was also the gabby one who always seemed to want to talk about it all.

Humans have evolved to spot patterns and when one person is constantly involved with horrific incidents, the mind starts notice.

People other than doctors were even commenting that she was always around when these things happen. There's a link out there somewhere to that info but I don't have it to hand.
 
  • #2,995
I have tried to avoid getting sucked into commenting too often on this thread as I appreciate that some have decided to ignore the facts and the way in which English law and the courts operate but it is time to pose some questions. A failure to deal with them will expose motive.
  • it is usual for the Court of Appeal to hear an appeal if one substantive piece of the evidence which secured a conviction is called into serious doubt or refuted. This does not mean a not guilty verdict. The court can confirm the verdict, return a finding of innocence or order a retrial. Do those opposing an appeal believe that no substantive elements of the prosecution evidence have been brought into doubt? A simple yes/no will suffice at this stage.
  • If the answer to the above is no are those so answering suggesting that they know better than the authors of the definitive work on medical statistics and parts of the medical evidence?
  • Is it acceptable for an expert witness to testify on matters for which they are not expert? If not, why was it acceptable to admit expert testimony on statistics from doctors with no training in statistics beyond the general maths courses required for a medical degree?
  • Is it acceptable to allow a case where significant doubt has been raised by experts and which has divided public opinion to damage the reputation of the English judicial system? What is more important? To protect those in authority or to protect the credibility of the system?
It would be possible to raise other matters but I have no wish to prejudge the result of any further court proceedings, unlike some. But I am genuinely interested to hear any credible defence for doing nothing at this point given the facts which have emerged and the damage being suffered by the system.
 
  • #2,996
In those cases there’s normally strong evidence to suggest there’s been a murder in the first place. No such evidence exists in this case. On the contrary, the medical evidence supports natural causes of death, despite that the prosecution experts asserted.
No it doesn't, that's why Letby didn't have any experts to stand up in court and say so. The medical evidence and the people willing to stand up and testify say different. The medical evidence shows murder.
 
  • #2,997
That was Lambie describing Baby B. Baby B’s rash could still be seen the following day, the mum photographed it.

Whether the word branching was used or not, I don’t remember, no description comes close to what’s Lee is describing.

A few witnesses said moving and fleeting..a parent also said it was like something moving through the blood vessels...his "tree" ...all experienced staff said it wasn't normal mottling of cyanosis which they see regularly...Lee was very condescending imo tk suggest they don't know the difference
 
  • #2,998
Baby A.

"There was very unusual patchiness on his skin which I had not seen before. There were patches of blue/purple colour, patches of red and of white that didn’t fit.

“This was bright red patches… that means you have blood going round your body.”

Dr harkness testimony. Dr ravi also said the same.


Both docs on baby a.

Both doctor and consultant noted an

Dr lee describes the lee sign as being bright pink veins on blue skin. That blueness is otherwise described as cyanosed. That was the description given for baby b who survived jm very non medical opinion but a baby who survived it might not appear the same way as one that did not. Im also of the opinion that some aspects of a skin presentation might be missed if it is unusual or dramatic or sudden. I also think the variations in colour in descriptions given might be because actually there is a range of colours present. Example the baby in dr clarkes file, that baby had very pale finger tips almost white that further along the fingers turned to red then to brown or browny blue and very blue mottling on the arms with brown and red edges otherwise being "mottled" with variations in colour.

Just a reminder that the effects of air embolism are not necessarily uniform. That was covered at trial as well as it is a rare event.

Exactly....when I heard Lee I felt more sure some of these skin discolouration was AE
 
  • #2,999
RSBM

It's not true that insulin being in the bags is entirely unsupported by the evidence.

When baby F's double quantity of glucose was disconnected for two hours his blood sugars actually increased. They then dropped again when the TPN was reconnected.




Baby F vomited when his feed bag was first connected, by Letby, and his heart rate rocketed.




There is other good evidence that Letby knew that insulin was in the feed bag, despite it never being their practice to administer insulin (when prescribed) via the feed bag. She asked police if his feed bags had been kept, before they told her what evidence they were working with.




That's before considering other evidence such as the C-Peptides, the blood sugar readings, the fact that Letby and only one other member of nursing staff was on shift for both poisonings, and the fact that Letby was taking the blood sugar readings, and then texted about it all day when she went off shift, and he wasn't even her designated patient. She left her fingerprint in the form of these behaviours.

As regards the insulin stock, the orders doubled in 2015.




There was a bucket load of evidence.

Oh yes, there’s circumstantial evidence, as there usually is in most murder cases, and no one disputes this? And I’m sure for someone like yourself, who is convinced of Letby’s guilt, this stuff must seem very compelling. But none of this is direct evidence that Letby spiked the feed bags. Or that she ever harmed a baby. Because no such evidence exists.
 
  • #3,000
The fact is, this case was meticulously investigated for YEARS before she was even charged, let alone came to trial.

You say that it's statistically unlikely to be a serial killer, but unlikely doesn't mean impossible, because there ARE medical serial killers and they tend to be very good at what they do and very difficult to catch.

You don't think that they explored every plausible avenue over those YEARS of investigation that was more likely? They absolutely did, and they came up with the cases they did because they were the most likely to succeed at trial. They had enough evidence to pass the hurdles of arrest, being bound over for trial, and finally, the majority resulted in conviction by a jury of Letby's peers. This wasn't the work of one person or even several who were careless, short-sighted, fantasists, or malicious. It was a huge team of people with all different specialities coming together to build the most complex and long running trial in history, and they were SUCCESSFUL.

MOO

See..
First the doctors, in a way, self-certified themselves as “not doing anything differently” and yet the babies dying. Meaning, they were a perfect unit but the babies still died, right?

And then Dr. Shoo Lee and the group of experts come and say, that in Canada, such a unit would be closed.

It never helps to certify oneself.
 

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