Well, at the risk of being wrong again - I don't think he'll be looking at much more than the bog standard starting point of 15 years, maybe a token uplift, with aggravating and mitigating factors more or less cancelling each other out. Probably very much to the outrage of many, but remember:
"The sentence is not a measure of the value put on the life of the victim."
as to the aggravating and mitigating factors (My assessments BBM):
Aggravating factors are things that make an offence even more serious and increase the minimum term. These
include:
Mitigating factors are things that may reduce the minimum term. These include:
- a significant degree of planning or premeditation; No
- the fact that the victim was particularly vulnerable because of age or disability; Somewhat. Scarlett was 14 years old, not 14 months
- mental or physical suffering inflicted on the victim before death; I've got to be honest. I don't really understand this part of the guidelines because I don't think it's really possible to be murdered without experiencing mental or physical suffering
- the abuse of a position of trust; Yes
- the use of duress or threats to enable the offence to take place; No
- the fact that the victim was providing a public service or performing a public duty; No
- concealing, destroying or dismembering the body. No
The main aggravating factor in this case (IMO) is not listed in this document, which is abuse of alcohol/drugs leading to the offending.
- an intention to cause serious bodily harm rather than to kill; probably not. This might be a hot topic of debate in the sentencing hearing
- lack of premeditation; yes
- the offender suffering from a mental disorder or mental disability which lowered his degree of blame; no
- the fact that the offender was provoked (for example, by prolonged stress); I don't think being called "a wimp" would qualify for this mitigation
- the fact that the offender acted to any extent in self-defence or in fear of violence; no
- a belief by the offender that the murder was an act of mercy; no
- the age of the offender. no
The main mitigating factor not listed in the document, is genuine remorse, lessened possibly by his "Not Guilty" plea. However, IMO, Simon Vickers grief for the loss of his daughter and his role in causing her death is genuine, even if a significant amount of his concern has undoubtedly been towards the criminal consequences of his actions when co-operating with law enforcement, and attempting to pervert the course of justice for his own benefit.
https://www.sentencingcouncil.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/FINAL-Murder-sentencing-leaflet-for-web1.pdf
IANAL
JMO
- mental or physical suffering inflicted on the victim before death; I've got to be honest. I don't really understand this part of the guidelines because I don't think it's really possible to be murdered without experiencing mental or physical suffering
I agree he has shown genuine remorse. Jmo