WA WA - Shantina Smiley, 29, & Azriel Carver, 8 (fnd deceased), Olympia, Mar 2010 - #1

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  • #501
Have a few questions and hope someone can chime in:

1. What was the depth of the water the auto was found in?

2. How far from the shoreline?

3. Does anyone know anything about cold water and drowning victims? Would cold water hold a body down for a longer period then maybe warmer water? ( body gases to consider and rate of decomp )
I recall someone commenting the water temp there would be something like 40 degrees.

Reports make it sound like a foot or so. The van wasn't completely under water.

From the photos, not far from the shoreline. One could have walked it.

Don't know about how cold water and hot water treat bodies differently. But she would not have lasted long in that water.
 
  • #502
I think we get a very warped sense of what happens to people here.

Witness the focus on Katherine Huether recently - coverage claiming she had been murdered, frantic discussion about a mysterious man, and it turned out that she, well, fell off a cliff on a hike.

Or Sarah Rogers; the fingers were pointed at the husband, and then it turns out she died from exposure not too far from the car crash.

Both the threads on these poor people (I hate to use this phrase) died, and drop out of page 1, because they are the cases that turned out to be accidents, rotten luck, or something much, much more boring than someone hunting her down at night.

IMHO.

Well, here's a few other details to help stir the pot.

Let's take the boy's father for example.

"Meantime, the boy's father, Jay Carver, flew out from Buffalo, N.Y. on Tuesday night to join the search for his son.

Jay Carver said he met Smiley in Hawaii, and the two were never married. The man said he hasn't seen his son in years, but spoke to him over the phone just a few days before he disappeared.

"I just really loved to be able to hear his voice, and talk to him on the phone. Just look forward to seeing him," he said. "He's awesome. He's a character. And he has a really great sense of humor, and loves to laugh. Downright just a really genuine kid."

So, what are the chances that after not speaking with him for many years all of a sudden he calls a few days before he disappears?

I know, can be a coincidence, or maybe the mother initiated the call. Still, one of those things that nag at yah when you think about it.

http://www.komonews.com/news/88041897.html
 
  • #503
Reminder:
This case will be on GMA during the first hour this morning.
 
  • #504
It is hard to think that Shantina's fiance would say she had relapsed and
was drinking again. To me, sharing that with LE would be the thing to do.
They might look more closely at other places she could have stopped at.

And if she did relapse, the strain of seeing her stepfather and his family again might
cause her to drink.

The thing is, none of us know if she was drinking on Sat. evening.
What we can tell, is that a 2 or 2 1/2 hr trip just did not happen.
Shantina got one half way, to Olympia, and did not leave that area.

She cannot seem to find her way back to the freeway, despite
repeated asking for directions.

She orders a corn dog for her son and leaves without it.
She falls either before she goes into that diner or right after that.
She knocks on a residents door and asks for directions and to use the
phone. She calls her grandfather.
She does not call her stepdad.
She does not call her fiance.

So many questions and very few answers.
 
  • #505
On The Today Show right now!
 
  • #506
Soon to be on GMA
 
  • #507
Well, here's a few other details to help stir the pot.

Let's take the boy's father for example.



So, what are the chances that after not speaking with him for many years all of a sudden he calls a few days before he disappears?

I know, can be a coincidence, or maybe the mother initiated the call. Still, one of those things that nag at yah when you think about it.

http://www.komonews.com/news/88041897.html

Actually, it says he hadn't seen him in many years, but the impression is pretty clear that he and his son had an ongoing relationship via the telephone. So, no coincidence there.....

Jay Carver said he met Smiley in Hawaii, and the two were never married. The man said he hasn't seen his son in years, but spoke to him over the phone just a few days before he disappeared.

"I just really loved to be able to hear his voice, and talk to him on the phone. Just look forward to seeing him," he said. "He's awesome. He's a character. And he has a really great sense of humor, and loves to laugh. Downright just a really genuine kid."
 
  • #508
.....it's amazing and terribly depressing to see what passes as fatherhood these days....
 
  • #509
Except she never had cell phone with her. Left it at home. Thus why she was used pay phone to initially call her fiance and later knocked on stranger's door at 10pm to use their phone to call her grandfather, after trying her fiance again -- his battery was dead by that time so she next called her grandfather.

Though typically, it would be unlikely that anyone who carried a cellphone, I don't, would not frequently forget it, and especially going on a trip, however, your post does cause me to think that perhaps the reason she didn't stop closer to the freeway was because she wasn't only stopping for food for Az as RS said, but also to find a payphone, which are much harder to locate these days.

Otoh, most peeps will let you use their cell, if you ask them.....

moo
 
  • #510
Five miles down the road, sure.

But she was half-way - one hour into a two hour drive - to her destination. (More if she was stuck in traffic.) Either way, she was going to be without a cell phone for the next hour. Why not just finish the trip?

RS has stated that it wouldn't be that unusual for her to get lost, I read it in a article posted on this thread, don't know which one, and he says she had started drinking again last week.

He still didn't think she would drink and drive.

Why was she putting this stressor in her life at this time, when RS says they were concerned about his health. Why would she add another stressor by going to see a stepfather, who claims they hadn't seen in years b/c they had move far away.

Her mom and the stepfather are no longer together?
Where is her mom?
Where is her dad?
I think she has a close relationship with her grandparents.
They live not very far from her.

moo
 
  • #511
Except she never had cell phone with her. Left it at home. Thus why she was used pay phone to initially call her fiance and later knocked on stranger's door at 10pm to use their phone to call her grandfather, after trying her fiance again -- his battery was dead by that time so she next called her grandfather.

Her stepfather's phone was working. RS states that he stayed in contact with LE while searching for her that night.

And he did stop to buy a charger, I don't know what time though.

moo
 
  • #512
Wait, I thought he was going into too much detail and was obviously trying to set up an alibi? :waitasec:

You can twitter his daughter and ask about exactly what repairs he made, what brand parts he used, etc. if you want.

The point is, he was already in Castle Rock long before she really went "missing" at 10pm. He has an alibi. I know we all want to be suspicious of anyone who doesn't act like we think someone should act, but this is silly.

I just think there's something a bit 'off' about this guy. Whether he had a hand in her disappearance or not, I still feel like he hasn't told LE (or the media) all he knows about this. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong. Won't be the first time.
 
  • #513
Does anyone still really think the fiance, ex-boyfriend, ex-husband, stepfather, or random stranger/predator is involved in this disappearance? Because I think only two people were involved here - Shantina and Azriel, and the digging up of information on the men in her life seems kind of futile and inappropriate, JMO.

Shantina is a recovering alcoholic and had just relapsed; apparently she was also taking medication for anxiety. If she had mixed alcohol and Xanax or another benzodiazepine (anxiety medication), that would explain her disoriented behavior/falling in the diner parking lot. In fact, I think it clearly does explain it. It also explains her ending up where she did - I realize that road is a dead end and out of the way, but take a turn here and a turn there, while intoxicated, and it's likely she ended up there entirely on her own, tried to turn around, perhaps knowing the water was there, perhaps not, backed into the water, attempted to get out, but in her disoriented/intoxicated state stumbled/fell, and her poor son, in an attempt to save/help his mother, went down into the water with her. IMO they are in the water, sadly, and the searches should be focused there. Whoever suggested bringing in Tim Miller was right on.

I feel horrible for the little boy. It's pretty clear he was used to 'taking care' of his mother. He made the excuse 'she hit her head' to explain her erratic behavior when he likely knew very well she was drunk. If you look at the video posted of her entering the diner, she is smiling and looks quite 'jolly' - intoxicated. Anyway, being used to taking care of his mom, when she fell/stumbled trying to get out of the water, little Azriel's first instinct was not to save himself and get to dry land, but to take care of his mom and try to help her. I'm just afraid that by this point she was too far gone to walk on her own and pulled little Azriel down under with her. Truly tragic, but the simplest explanation and the one that makes the most sense, IMO.

This poor little boy. I can't stop thinking about him, trying to help his mom and get them to safety. I just see foul play as extremely unlikely in this case. And if Shantina and Azriel had gotten out of the water, they would have been found by now. Surely Azriel would have gone to fetch help. The only place they could be is in the water, really. Are there active searches going on there? Divers? Can't they bring dogs out on boats to alert them to the presence of people in the water?

bbm, yeppers, I reserve the right to think that.

LE thinks foul play is involved, per post #1 on this thread.

We have video of her and her son.
We have witness statements, that she was nervous about being lost, at 10,
We have witness statements that she bought food but didnt wait for it, ie, in a hurry to get back on the road?
We have her calling twice, and asking several people for directions.

We have him not being focused on how she might feel about driving, since he says she was drinking again, she isn't in a good frame of mind to begin with, but instead of saying, wait for me. I'll cancel the meeting, or anything else.

She calls him twice before she leaves, why? Did she forget she called him the first time?
There is more to that story, though he only says she calls him twice to tell me she's leaving, no explanation why it took two phone calls to say that, but the point made is she keeps in touch, she lets you know what she doing, where she's going, but um, she forgot her cell so she could keep doing that which she normally does.....

She is acting out of character, imo, from what I see of her, and hear of her.
He is acting in character, from what I see of him, and hear from him.

So the question to me is, why is she acting out of character.
Some suggest a head injury, as that is what Az said, and he felt the need to explain his mom's behavior to perfect strangers in a diner, who they then let her get in a van and drive away. wow.....

Reason for head injury?
I do not think he is used to making excuses for his mom's behavior, since they live in this perfect world of scouting, wonderful family, blah blah blah.

The strangers don't see any unusual behavior, they would have smelled booze. they state she is nervous due to being lost.

I wonder how many peeps would have said, "You've been lost a long time, I will let you follow me and get you to the freeway myself?"
I think I would have done that. I hope I would have.

moo
 
  • #514
If she is an alcoholic, she very well could be abusing her anxiety meds. Usually a doctor will not give anxiety meds to a known alcoholic. They are given in the beginning of recovery to stop the shakes and such but after that they are usually not prescribed.

IF it's true she is being treated for anxiety, why are all assuming she's taking sedatives? Why not something like Paxil, for example?
 
  • #515
Since shes been taking meds and had a relapse last week why why why did he let her go alone??? Was she acting this way last week then? Was she confused, disoriented? My heart breaks for this boy. God where are they?

Heres the video of her ex husband. Sorry if already posted.

http://www.king5.com/news/local/Nat...-in-finding-missing-mom-and-son-87825797.html

On Tuesday her fiancé revealed she had been under stress lately. He said he's been having health issues and fears he might have cancer. So this past week he suggested they get married.

That's when she started drinking again.

Maybe it wasn't his "health issues" that led her to start drinking again, if that's indeed the truth.
 
  • #516
Investigators have determined that Shantina left Silverdale at 5 p.m. Saturday. At 6:45 p.m. she called her boyfriend from a pay phone asking him to get her cell phone, but he didn't answer, Mealy said

http://www.komonews.com/news/local/87628727.html


I thought that was when he got the address of his destination?

Hmmm...

According to RS:

I stopped in Toldeo-Vader to make quick repair, when she called me at 6:45 from a phone. She asked me if I could grab her phone, because she had left. I let her know where I was at. She was in the Olympia area, but wasn’t quite sure of where, Azriel was hungry, so she pulled off. She made complaint of being in the traffic. She gave me the destination address and told me she would be there shortly.

Sounds like she must have left a message for him on his cell, but by HIS account, he spoke to her.

Now why would he lie about such a thing, hmmm?
 
  • #517
  • #518
  • #519
No new clues in missing woman, son
Mom, boy: Divers look in Puget Sound, while police comb van again
Published March 17, 2010


There is no evidence of foul play, Mealy has said.

snip

No new search efforts were planned for today, Chamberlain wrote in an e-mail late Tuesday afternoon. The Sheriff’s Office is following up on a number of tips that have been called in, Mealy said.

snip

Mealy cautioned that investigators aren’t assuming that Smiley and Carver drowned. He said the disappearances are “very suspicious,” but they aren’t ruling out any possibilities, including that she and her son left the area on foot, or that Smiley left the area safely with her son and does not want to be found.

http://www.theolympian.com/2010/03/17/1174911/no-new-clues-in-missing-pair.html
 
  • #520
This story is making no sense!!! Where is her family?? Has anyone else confirmed that she was a recovering alcoholic??
 
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