WA WA - Shantina Smiley, 29, & Azriel Carver, 8 (fnd deceased), Olympia, Mar 2010 - #4

[Calliope]

If you are correct, then this is very interesting. The one thing that "sold" me on their accidental drowning was LE speaking of the "ferocious currents". But if you are correct, do you mean LE was misinformed, or deliberately "buying time" (ie, they have another theory they are working on, but do not wish to speak to the public on it)?

I've heard conflicting statements on the current in the area where her van was found. I think it was on the 1st or 2nd thread that locals were saying it wasn't so bad (if not here, then in comments w/articles). Sorry, after so much having been written, it's hard to recall exactly where I read what... but I do remember there being a difference of opinion. If that site I linked is correct, 2 mph doesn't seem that fast... that would be the speed of a slow stroll. In fact, I found a station that is closer to where the van was found:

Websleuths Crime Sleuthing Community - View Single Post - WA WA - Shantina Smiley,29, & Azriel Carver,8, car fnd near Olympia 14-Mar-10 #4


2010-03-13 10:51 PM PST 0.01 knots Slack, Flood Begins

2010-03-14 1:59 AM PST 1.02 knots Max Flood

2010-03-14 5:49 AM PDT -0.00 knots Slack, Ebb Begins

2010-03-14 7:26 AM PDT Sunrise

2010-03-14 9:32 AM PDT -0.52 knots Max Ebb


1.02 knots = 1.174 mph; 0.52 knots = 0.598 mph. That seems negligible, really.

(calculator: http://www.militaryfactory.com/conversioncalculators/speed_knots_to_miles_per_hour.asp )

 

[shelly12]

i drive a vehicle with a hatch. when i am watching fireworks etc., i open the hatch to sit there. i wonder if she was watching the ocean sitting in the hatch. and maybe having some wine? the keys out of the ignition to kill the interior lights? i havent seen this idea, forgive me if it is an old idea.

 

[trigger]

Her myspace is open to view photos (and there are a LOT of photos). I don't recall seeing her carrying a purse, but there are so many I could be wrong. I really wasn't looking at that, just trying to get a feel for her and Azriel. At least until the point those photos were posted (and I'm not sure how to tell other than her last login date), she seemed to be very happy and it's clear Azriel was her life. If something happened to push her to the edge, it was huge, or perhaps a series of stressors that were too much for her to handle. But even that seems far-fetched, from what I've read. She had a near perfect GPA while caring for a 5 to 7 year old, plus an "instant" family complete with a teenage step-daughter-to-be and every other weekend with a young step-son-to-be; she admitted it was stressful, but she had the energy and stamina to do it. Hell, it wore me out just reading her blogs and looking at the photos. I'm having a hard time reconciling what I've seen, read, and heard, with her behaviour that evening. Perhaps there was some drinking, but to me that doesn't explain it all. I still believe that RS wasn't supposed to come along on this visit, and that her actions were to avoid a confrontation of sorts.

But I keep thinking about the van... it just doesn't sit right with me.

RS states on video that she called him at 410pm stating she was getting ready to leave and he told her to bring his cell phone charger, that his cell was going dead. He said he got off at 430pm and hoped he would meet up with her on the road. So I guess he was going and was probably all packed up for the trip already. But what I can't figure out he couldn't have brought his overnight bag on his bike right? So I wonder if his overnight bag was also in the van?

Other reports from LE state through their investigation she left home at 5pm. So did he have a head start? Im totally confused at this point.

 

[Calliope]

Thank you for this! You have put into words my own feelings: Her energy to go to college, study, achieve good grades, learn photography, get her child into scouts, trying to enter an engagement: Does not square with a totally disorganized person who would not have the wherewithal to make it through a night. "Recovering alcholic" + DUI+ CPS have wiped away much of what was good and solid about her. If she should later prove to be a victim of foul play.....Keep going round in circles about this case....

I know =\

I know that an alcoholic makes bad decisions and can display the disorganized behaviour we saw... but what the hell drove her back to drinking? I agree she did some horrible things, but from all accounts and appearances she had rebuilt her life and was on a good steady track. Whatever it was, I don't buy that it was because RS self-diagnosed via Google.

 

[PaulR]

I know =\

I know that an alcoholic makes bad decisions and can display the disorganized behaviour we saw... but what the hell drove her back to drinking? I agree she did some horrible things, but from all accounts and appearances she had rebuilt her life and was on a good steady track. Whatever it was, I don't buy that it was because RS self-diagnosed via Google.

What do you think drove her back to drinking?

 

[trigger]

i drive a vehicle with a hatch. when i am watching fireworks etc., i open the hatch to sit there. i wonder if she was watching the ocean sitting in the hatch. and maybe having some wine? the keys out of the ignition to kill the interior lights? i havent seen this idea, forgive me if it is an old idea.

Some said that maybe they were looking at the stars. So sad.

 

[Midgie'smom]

If you are correct, then this is very interesting. The one thing that "sold" me on their accidental drowning was LE speaking of the "ferocious currents". But if you are correct, do you mean LE was misinformed, or deliberately "buying time" (ie, they have another theory they are working on, but do not wish to speak to the public on it)?

I'm not familiar with that part of the Sound, but the "ferocious currents" just didn't seem right for that particular area. I know that the currents around the Tacoma Narrows bridge are considered ferocious, but that's pretty far from where the van was found.

I found this current map and it doesn't have any red "C" in the area. The closest C says that the current is 2.9 knots.

http://sportkayak.net/default.aspx

Here's another website that explains about currents, it says that the maximum current speed at the Tacoma Narrows is 5.5 knots.

http://exhibits.pacsci.org/puget_sound/PSSummary.html

So, maybe if you got out far enough you could be caught up in the 2.9 current, which would explain how Azriel's body was washed up on Fox Island. But the van was pretty close to shore.

I've just never heard of anyone swimming in Puget Sound who has been caught in a current -- it's not like the ocean. Although, has others have stated, it's pretty cold and nobody would be swimming where there is a strong current.

 

[houndstooth]

RS states on video that she called him at 410pm stating she was getting ready to leave and he told her to bring his cell phone charger, that his cell was going dead. He said he got off at 430pm and hoped he would meet up with her on the road. So I guess he was going and was probably all packed up for the trip already. But what I can't figure out he couldn't have brought his overnight bag on his bike right? So I wonder if his overnight bag was also in the van?

Other reports from LE state through their investigation she left home at 5pm. So did he have a head start? Im totally confused at this point.

RS says in a FOX interview that he "left out ahead of her".

 

[SMK]

I'm not familiar with that part of the Sound, but the "ferocious currents" just didn't seem right for that particular area. I know that the currents around the Tacoma Narrows bridge are considered ferocious, but that's pretty far from where the van was found.

I found this current map and it doesn't have any red "C" in the area. The closest C says that the current is 2.9 knots.

http://sportkayak.net/default.aspx

Here's another website that explains about currents, it says that the maximum current speed at the Tacoma Narrows is 5.5 knots.

http://exhibits.pacsci.org/puget_sound/PSSummary.html

So, maybe if you got out far enough you could be caught up in the 2.9 current, which would explain how Azriel's body was washed up on Fox Island. But the van was pretty close to shore.

I've just never heard of anyone swimming in Puget Sound who has been caught in a current -- it's not like the ocean. Although, has others have stated, it's pretty cold and nobody would be swimming where there is a strong current.

Thanks for this detailed info. Yes, it is a puzzle. I guess either LE is correct, and they were awakened and swept away, or, there remains the less likely but still possible idea of a third party, a stranger, having done them harm in some way.

 

[PaulR]

Do not drag any innocent persons--such as SS's relatives--into this discussion...

:waitasec:

 

[RubyRed]

Funeral for missing woman's son

A small, private funeral is planned Wednesday for an 8-year-old boy whose body was found washed up on Fox Island last week.

Thurston County detectives say they are following up on leads, including several tips, but they've called off an active search for Shantina Smiley.

http://www.mynorthwest.com/?nid=11&sid=301809

 

[spiral]

I've heard conflicting statements on the current in the area where her van was found. I think it was on the 1st or 2nd thread that locals were saying it wasn't so bad (if not here, then in comments w/articles). Sorry, after so much having been written, it's hard to recall exactly where I read what... but I do remember there being a difference of opinion. If that site I linked is correct, 2 mph doesn't seem that fast... that would be the speed of a slow stroll. In fact, I found a station that is closer to where the van was found:

Websleuths Crime Sleuthing Community - View Single Post - WA WA - Shantina Smiley,29, & Azriel Carver,8, car fnd near Olympia 14-Mar-10 #4


2010-03-13 10:51 PM PST 0.01 knots Slack, Flood Begins

2010-03-14 1:59 AM PST 1.02 knots Max Flood

2010-03-14 5:49 AM PDT -0.00 knots Slack, Ebb Begins

2010-03-14 7:26 AM PDT Sunrise

2010-03-14 9:32 AM PDT -0.52 knots Max Ebb


1.02 knots = 1.174 mph; 0.52 knots = 0.598 mph. That seems negligible, really.

(calculator: http://www.militaryfactory.com/conversioncalculators/speed_knots_to_miles_per_hour.asp )

Hi to everyone (i'm new here) ~

I just wanted to say something about the tidal currents where the van was found. I've lived in Olympia for many years and I lived in Boston Harbor (which is also Olympia) a few years back. From my experience and what I have learned from other kayakers, I definitely feel LE is correct their description of the currents. The beach sits on Dana Passage and the currents can be quite strong at times and there can also be rips.

The link above which shows Eld Inlet is pretty close in distance but the currents are generally not as strong as where the van was. JMO

 

[Calliope]

The hardest part about being a witness in a case is not telling what you know, saw, did. The hardest part is knowing what may be relevant in what you don't think to tell or assume LE already knows.

I don't find him suspicious, I find him to be a typical witness. If every statement he made was too consistent, THAT is what I would find suspicous. That would lead me to wonder if his answers were by rote or a story that was memorized.

It is this very tendancy of witnesses to add more info in this interview, word things diferently in that one, that makes it so hard for people in gerneral to be good witnesses. Their stories tend to change in small ways from telling to telling. That is not evidence of lying, it is evidence that human beings do not have perfect and photographic memories and also - that diferent things are occurring to them during diferent tellings that hadn't occurred to them before or seemed relevant to divulge then but now do.

Now the KC's and the Misty's of the world :liar:- whole nother animal, horses of whole diferent colors if you follow me.

I don't think he is involved in her disappearance. Not at all. I do think he wasn't being entirely honest with information (at least in interviews) as to what led up to her disappearance. Maybe he was afraid it would be viewed as a 'runaway bride' sort of thing rather than endangered missing persons. If I'm right and she was beginning to chafe a bit, he may not have even recognized it or if he did have an inkling something was wrong, chose to ignore it.

 

[tlcya]

Hello Spiral :Welcome-12-june: we are always glad to have another voice, another viewpoint and hope you will continue to post so we can get to know yours.

 

[Calliope]

Hi to everyone (i'm new here) ~

I just wanted to say something about the tidal currents where the van was found. I've lived in Olympia for many years and I lived in Boston Harbor (which is also Olympia) a few years back. From my experience and what I have learned from other kayakers, I definitely feel LE is correct their description of the currents. The beach sits on Dana Passage and the currents can be quite strong at times and there can also be rips.

The link above which shows Eld Inlet is pretty close in distance but the currents are generally not as strong as where the van was. JMO

Welcome!!

Ah thanks. I posted the Dana passage currents for that night and the next morning. Those are the ones someone here calculated to be around 2 mph.

Currents for the closest point to the van (that I could find), 3/13 - 3/17.

http://www.mobilegeographics.com:81/locations/1485.html?y=2010&m=3&d=13

2010-03-13 6:14 PM PST Sunset

2010-03-13 7:47 PM PST -2.40 knots Max Ebb

2010-03-13 11:12 PM PST 0.01 knots Slack, Flood Begins

2010-03-14 1:41 AM PST 1.70 knots Max Flood

2010-03-14 6:19 AM PDT -0.00 knots Slack, Ebb Begins

2010-03-14 7:26 AM PDT Sunrise

2010-03-14 9:30 AM PDT -2.08 knots Max Ebb

2010-03-14 12:41 PM PDT 0.00 knots Slack, Flood Begins

2.40 knots = 2.762 mph, 1.70 knots = 1.956 mph.

 

[spiral]

Hello Sprial :Welcome-12-june: we are always glad to have another voice, another viewpoint and hope you will continue to post so we can get to know yours.

thanks very much

 

[trigger]

RS says in a FOX interview that he "left out ahead of her".

Geez...:banghead: I didn't know this.

 

[Midgie'smom]

Hi to everyone (i'm new here) ~

I just wanted to say something about the tidal currents where the van was found. I've lived in Olympia for many years and I lived in Boston Harbor (which is also Olympia) a few years back. From my experience and what I have learned from other kayakers, I definitely feel LE is correct their description of the currents. The beach sits on Dana Passage and the currents can be quite strong at times and there can also be rips.

The link above which shows Eld Inlet is pretty close in distance but the currents are generally not as strong as where the van was. JMO

Thank you! Now I can stop thinking about it!

 

[houndstooth]

He announced her as joining his business as a photographer late in November. It's not clear when she graduated, only reported as "recently". It just seemed kinda odd to me, that's all. I suppose she could still work that and her new job too, but the girl sure had a lot on her plate.

Thanks. I was just about to ask when he hired her as an assistant photographer. Well, that might explain why she no longer was posting on her MS. I don't do social networking sites, but, I've noticed that people who do regularly, their sudden absense is most often due to a change in their life.
Like new job, meeting a new beau and stuff like that where they don't have time for the things they used to.

 

[SMK]

I do not think it is the consenus that fiance directly caused her relapse or caused her disappearance (although some posters have suspicions driven by statistics which tell us that people closest to victims are often the perpetrators). We are simply discussing info provided by him in an attempt to better understand her and her state of mind at the time of her disappearance. In order to figure out what happened you have to look at the person, their life, their asociates, etc. Delve into her motivations, life, etc, only then can you get a feel for what was going on in SS' mind that night.

I think we are all pretty much on the same page that she was drinking that night but we still question what role and to what degree that played in the outcome.

Yes, and I have always thought it might be anti-anxiety meds, taken for stress, that may have caused her disorientation. I thought this because I have known persons who took these for stress when they had to do something important, only to find out that it made them get hopelessly lost and disoriented ( my sister had this experience when she had to attend a wedding. Took anti-stress meds, got lost, was late, disoriented, etc. )