2023 Hurricane and Tropical Weather

[anneg]

MSN

Once the disturbance clears the bulk of the dust next week, however, the atmospheric pattern is forecast to become conducive for development, and a more organized circulation should be able to form. The National Hurricane Center rates its chances of becoming at least a tropical depression as high.

If top winds ever reach 40 mph or higher in the circulation, it will be named Emily

I hope it stays away from land, as suggested by the NHC's 7-day outlook:

Atlantic 7-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

 

[Puzzles8]

MSN

Once the disturbance clears the bulk of the dust next week, however, the atmospheric pattern is forecast to become conducive for development, and a more organized circulation should be able to form. The National Hurricane Center rates its chances of becoming at least a tropical depression as high.

If top winds ever reach 40 mph or higher in the circulation, it will be named Emily

My biggest concern this hurricane year are the excessively high Gulf Water temperatures around the lower southern half of Florida. I feel that is like putting open cans of gasoline right next to a bonfire.
Hoping for a quiet season.

JMO

 

[anneg]

From the National Hurricane Center:
[These two areas don't appear to be a threat to the U.S. east coast in the next 7 days, IMO.]

Atlantic 7-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

 

[PayrollNerd]

A new normal just in time for this hurricane season.

MSN

 

[mickey2942]

A new normal just in time for this hurricane season.

MSN

Let's hope everything is mild this year. Weather experts sort of sound "gloom and doom" about the heat of the water in the gulf.

Hot Gulf of Mexico temperatures raise concerns about catastrophic hurricanes

As surface water temperatures climb in the Gulf during the current, unrelenting heat wave, forecasters fear storms may become more powerful and destructive.

www.kvue.com

 

[Friday Fan]

Ugh

https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-forecasters-increase-atlantic-hurricane-season-prediction-to-above-normal#:~:text=NOAA's%20update%20to%20the%202023,of%20111%20mph%20or%20greater).

 

[PayrollNerd]

Ugh

https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-forecasters-increase-atlantic-hurricane-season-prediction-to-above-normal#:~:text=NOAA's%20update%20to%20the%202023,of%20111%20mph%20or%20greater).

I heard about this and I was like well, where are they?! We have had so little rain here in Sarasota. Everything is dead, parched and brittle. I had 2 new trees installed today and now I’m thinking I need to stake them!

 

[Friday Fan]

I heard about this and I was like well, where are they?! We have had so little rain here in Sarasota. Everything is dead, parched and brittle. I had 2 new trees installed today and now I’m thinking I need to stake them!

I think this is one of those years, where it's hard to predict! It's not really fitting the mold!

This heatwave in Texas is the worst!

 

[PayrollNerd]

MSN

Two areas in the Atlantic are being tracked for possible tropical development, and despite widespread warm water, there is a barrier that could keep these disturbances from organizing quickly.

 

[PayrollNerd]

Yikes! My oldest is on a research ship in the Gulf of Mexico just south of Louisiana. It's a 15 day trip and they went out of Galveston on Aug 7th. If their weather turns rough, they're required to return to port. They've already had to anchor 1 day due to high winds 3.5'-4' waves.

Find vessel SOUTHERN JOURNEY, IMO: 0 MMSI: 369970839 live marine traffic ship tracker. Current vessel position live on map, free. SAT and AIS

Ship location for SOUTHERN JOURNEY (IMO: 0, MMSI: 369970839), is Find ship on map. vessel AIS and tracker

shipinfo.net

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There's a area worth watching closer to home for early (Tue/Wed) of next week in Texas, the area is a wave with squelched convection near the Leeward islands currently that could move into an area favorable for development this weekend, although it's unlikely it will have time to develop into much, but an area like this should be watched closely because sometimes models miss the quick systems like this. It's a reminder for those along the gulf to be hurricane ready, even if it doesn't develop into much. Texas does need the rain. 20% chance to develop over the next 7 days.

See post for the other 2 possible storms.

3. Western Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure could form in the central or western Gulf of Mexico by the beginning of next week. Some slow development of this system is possible thereafter as it moves generally westward, potentially nearing the western Gulf of Mexico coastline in about a week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

 

[JerseyGirl]

Hurricane Hilary now Category 3, could be 1st tropical storm to hit California since 1939. Here's how it will impact CA weather | abc7news.com

The%20current%20track%20has%20Hilary%20moving%20into%20California%20on%20Monday%20as%20either%20a%20tropical%20storm%20or%20a%20weaker%20tropical%20depression.

abc7news.com

HURRICANE HILARY COULD BE 1ST TROPICAL STORM TO HIT CA SINCE 1939. HERE'S HOW IT'LL IMPACT THE STATE​

 

[PayrollNerd]

My oldest is back on land, thankfully. They came in at Biloxi, MS yesterday.

MSN

Snip:
Disturbance 2, which is located a few hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Island, has a 70% chance of development within seven days,.....

Disturbance 1, located 1,000 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands has a 50% chance of development within seven days.

Disturbance 3 is located 500 miles east-southeast of the Lesser Antilles and

Disturbance 4 is located north of Hispaniola and will move into the Gulf of Mexico by early next week,.......

Disturbance 3 has a 20% chance of development within seven days, while Disturbance 4 has a 30% chance of development......

 

[anneg]

My oldest is back on land, thankfully. They came in at Biloxi, MS yesterday.

MSN

Snip:
Disturbance 2, which is located a few hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Island, has a 70% chance of development within seven days,.....

Disturbance 1, located 1,000 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands has a 50% chance of development within seven days.

Disturbance 3 is located 500 miles east-southeast of the Lesser Antilles and

Disturbance 4 is located north of Hispaniola and will move into the Gulf of Mexico by early next week,.......

Disturbance 3 has a 20% chance of development within seven days, while Disturbance 4 has a 30% chance of development......


View attachment 441672

That lineup of "disturbances" is scary! ETA Happy to hear your oldest is back on land.

 

[PayrollNerd]

Main Page:

Tropical Tidbits

Tropical weather and Atlantic hurricane information, analysis, and forecasts by Levi Cowan.

www.tropicaltidbits.com

EMILY

Current Storm Information | Tropical Tidbits

The latest information on active storms in the Atlantic Ocean

www.tropicaltidbits.com

FRANKLIN

Current Storm Information | Tropical Tidbits

The latest information on active storms in the Atlantic Ocean

www.tropicaltidbits.com

GERT

Current Storm Information | Tropical Tidbits

The latest information on active storms in the Atlantic Ocean

www.tropicaltidbits.com

 

[PayrollNerd]

Central Florida Hurricane Center 2024 - 29 Years Tracking Storms

flhurricane is a Website focused on the tracking, data, and discussion of Atlantic Hurricanes with a focus on Florida.

flhurricane.com

8:00 AM EDT 21 August 2023 Update
Tropical Storm Gert formed overnight from Tropical Depression Six, still expected to be short-lived. Harold and Idalia are the next two names.

It's extremely busy in the Atlantic, but only two threats to land at the moment.

91L in the Gulf has a 80% chance to develop, those in the western Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. Tropical storm watches or warnings may be necessary on Monday for portions of the southern Texas and northern Mexico. The next name is now Harold.

Tropical Storm Franklin has developed from 90L and Tropical Storm Warnings and Watches are up for Hispaniola as it approaches. Beyond this those in Bermuda may need to watch.

Emily continues out to sea and the final area 92L has a 70% chance to develop. Another area, currently not on the Outlook may show up later this week near the Gulf or Western Caribbean.

The last advisory for Tropical Storm Hilary was issued in Nevada. Flooding rains continue in parts of Nevada, Northern California, Interior Oregon, and Idaho. Flooding in southern California was varied, but large sections of I-10 are closed due to flooding around Palm Springs. Some localized areas in California did worse than others.

 

[Bogbacal2]

8

Central Florida Hurricane Center 2024 - 29 Years Tracking Storms

flhurricane is a Website focused on the tracking, data, and discussion of Atlantic Hurricanes with a focus on Florida.

flhurricane.com

8:00 AM EDT 21 August 2023 Update
Tropical Storm Gert formed overnight from Tropical Depression Six, still expected to be short-lived. Harold and Idalia are the next two names.

It's extremely busy in the Atlantic, but only two threats to land at the moment.

91L in the Gulf has a 80% chance to develop, those in the western Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. Tropical storm watches or warnings may be necessary on Monday for portions of the southern Texas and northern Mexico. The next name is now Harold.

Tropical Storm Franklin has developed from 90L and Tropical Storm Warnings and Watches are up for Hispaniola as it approaches. Beyond this those in Bermuda may need to watch.

Emily continues out to sea and the final area 92L has a 70% chance to develop. Another area, currently not on the Outlook may show up later this week near the Gulf or Western Caribbean.

The last advisory for Tropical Storm Hilary was issued in Nevada. Flooding rains continue in parts of Nevada, Northern California, Interior Oregon, and Idaho. Flooding in southern California was varied, but large sections of I-10 are closed due to flooding around Palm Springs. Some localized areas in California did worse than others.

I’m in Louisiana. Never know what to expect with the tropics! This heat wave and no rain is horrible but I hate to complain- not trying to summons a storm!

 

[RichardKimble]

Central Florida Hurricane Center 2024 - 29 Years Tracking Storms

flhurricane is a Website focused on the tracking, data, and discussion of Atlantic Hurricanes with a focus on Florida.

flhurricane.com

8:00 AM EDT 21 August 2023 Update
Tropical Storm Gert formed overnight from Tropical Depression Six, still expected to be short-lived. Harold and Idalia are the next two names.

It's extremely busy in the Atlantic, but only two threats to land at the moment.

91L in the Gulf has a 80% chance to develop, those in the western Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. Tropical storm watches or warnings may be necessary on Monday for portions of the southern Texas and northern Mexico. The next name is now Harold.

Tropical Storm Franklin has developed from 90L and Tropical Storm Warnings and Watches are up for Hispaniola as it approaches. Beyond this those in Bermuda may need to watch.

Emily continues out to sea and the final area 92L has a 70% chance to develop. Another area, currently not on the Outlook may show up later this week near the Gulf or Western Caribbean.

The last advisory for Tropical Storm Hilary was issued in Nevada. Flooding rains continue in parts of Nevada, Northern California, Interior Oregon, and Idaho. Flooding in southern California was varied, but large sections of I-10 are closed due to flooding around Palm Springs. Some localized areas in California did worse than others.

It looks to be in full swing now, wasn't the forecast for a busy Atlantic season?

 

[Friday Fan]

Here is the forecast path for the Gulf of Mexico blob. The models are all pretty much the same.
It probably won't develop. Will likely bring some rain to upper Gulf Coast (Houston, New Orleans, as it moves west. ) May bring rain to South Texas, if the heat dome doesn't vaporize the thing.

Satellite screenshot at 8:45 am CDT - Aug 21
Image Sources:

Current Storm Information | Tropical Tidbits

The latest information on active storms in the Atlantic Ocean

www.tropicaltidbits.com

 

[Friday Fan]

Well, well. We will see.

For the GOM, it's pretty fast moving. Usually they sit there and cook.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Forecast Discussion

Flooding in Coahilla and Nuevo Leon expected.

Current Storm Information | Tropical Tidbits

The latest information on active storms in the Atlantic Ocean

www.tropicaltidbits.com

 

[JerseyGirl]

Tropical Storm Harold makes landfall at Padre Island, no relief anytime soon for DFW

While we have another day of intense heat here in North Texas, a tropical storm will be moving onshore down in South Texas.

www.nbcdfw.com

TD9, which currently has sustained winds of about 35 mph, is expected to become Tropical Storm Harold once the winds top 39 mph. That's expected to happen before landfall on the south Texas coast south near Baffin Bay Tuesday morning.