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A new area in on the outlook that has a 20% chance to develop in the West Caribbean. This one should be watched very closely as if it develops it is likely to impact somewhere along the Gulf, including Florida. This is an area that could move from the east pacific into the Western Caribbean, and could develop over the weekend if it does.
Tropical Storm Franklin is moving off Hispaniola tonight ,the Turks and Caicos has a Tropical Storm Warning up as well as it passes closeby to the east. Beyond this, Bermuda should watch.
Former Emily has a 70% chance to redevelop.
and 92L has a 40% chance to develop
Franklin KEY MESSAGES:
1. Heavy rainfall from Franklin is expected across much of Hispaniola into Thursday, which is expected to produce significant and potentially life-threatening flash and urban flooding as well as mudslides, particularly over the central Dominican Republic.
2. Franklin is bringing tropical storm conditions to portions of the Dominican Republic, where Tropical Storm Warnings remain in effect, and tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within the Turks and Caicos Islands tonight.
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Aug 23 2023
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Franklin, located just north of the Dominican Republic.
Central Subtropical Atlantic (Remnants of Emily):
An area of low pressure located about 1000 miles east-southeast of Bermuda (the remnants of former Tropical Storm Emily) continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Upper-level winds are forecast to become more conducive for development by tomorrow, and this system is likely to regenerate into a tropical storm by Friday while the system moves northward over the subtropical central Atlantic. For additional information on this system, including gale warnings, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.
Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with an area of low pressure located several hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands. This system's circulation has become better defined since yesterday, despite marginal environmental conditions, and further slow development is possible. The low has the potential to become a tropical depression by the weekend while the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward into the central tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.
Northwestern Caribbean Sea:
An area of low pressure could form in a couple of days over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Some slow development of this system is possible over the weekend and early next week while it moves slowly northward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
