Aruba - Natalee Holloway, 18, Oranjestad, 30 May 2005 #1

[hollyblue]

I may be totally wrong, but my inkling is a deal has been done. Joran has been in Peruvian prison almost 6 mos. now. I think someone has or had Natalee's remains in "custody" a long time ago. With his big blunders, Stephany's murder, and Beth not going to let things just rest, they want it all to just go away. Be interesting to see if Joran or anyone else tries to get him back to Aruba if this is Natalee. I feel strongly it is.

I have more theory to go with this, but holding back for the time being.

 

[passionflower]

Jean Casaus just said the Aruba prosecuter's office is a 24 hour open all weekend..
She is waiting by there for word from him.
So far nothing, but still saying 'any minute'...............

 

[annalia]

I was listening to Jean C who said that the area hasn't been cordoned off and people are freely walking about, that's concerning.

I really hope that Aruba and the NFI did give the DNA test high priority. I hope they're smart enough to realize the need to determine if it is Natalee's remains so the area can be secured and searches commencing to see if any other remains can be found. Time is of the essence if it is her and there is a possibility of any more of her remains being found.

 

[karen7868]

I find it so coincidental this jawbone was found just a few weeks after Joran met with Beth.

I can't help but think Mama Van Der Sloot knew all along where the remains were and possibly placed it to be found.

Joran promised he would write Beth, but I think he instead wrote to his mother. He is too much of a coward to tell Beth in writing or in person.

Maybe he thinks if they find her remains, it will help his case in some sort of way.

I am on pins and needles waiting for the results.

For Beth and Dave's sake, I hope it is. They need to know. May God bless them.

 

[passionflower]

While watching Jean C. she mentioned if 'someone had dropped' the bone.
I think this is odd.........the word dropped.
Like in someone took the bone there, now with Juran away from Aruba,
they want this over and done with so more tourists come back.

 

[georger]

I believe this is a break in the case, who said that "there are so many deaths in Aruba" is wrong, where did you get this from? It is far too coincidental that the jawbone was found on a beach near to where Joran said he was that night. Just like it was very coincidental (before results were confirmed) that the body of a female and unborn baby were found all of those years ago by the San Francisco Bay -- you recall that we all "knew" it was Laci and Connor, as we realised that Scott Peterson had been "fishing" in about the same area....this is the same....I feel.

Good comparison. Somebody asked about the Probability. P= r/n where
r is one specific outcome and n is the total number of outcomes possible.
We already have a strong clue. The bone is that of a young female European
woman (YFEW). Assuming this bone washed up on the beach, How many YFEW's
have gone lost in the last decade off this beach? Only 1 or 2, I would presume.
If that is true then this bone has a 50-50 chance of being Natalie Holloway! But,
we can refine the probability further.

The bones must be recent and available near the surface of the bay bottom and
not covered by sediment, in order for them to be washed up on to a shore during
a storm event. And, how many storms have occurred off this beach in the last 5
years? (P=1) = P1 + P2 + P3. Under these conditions if you assume only 1 YFEW
and only one storm, then the odds of this being Natalie are almost 1:1. Moreover,
if we knew more about how far out and from what direction storm surges can bring
light bottom material to the beach, then we can also define an area where the bone
most likely came from.

The odds seem favorable this is Natalie's jaw bone, unless some there
are oter options we do not know about.

Even before the bone is examined we know there is a very strong probability the
bone belongs to Natalie. The known mathematical options favour that. We know
the bone is that of a YFEW - that increases the odds even further. Unless there
are options we know nothing about, this jaw bone probably belongs to a:

Young Caucasian European Female.

How many are there off this beach? Only one that I know of.

 

[hollyblue]

I find it so coincidental this jawbone was found just a few weeks after Joran met with Beth.

I can't help but think Mama Van Der Sloot knew all along where the remains were and possibly placed it to be found.

Joran promised he would write Beth, but I think he instead wrote to his mother. He is too much of a coward to tell Beth in writing or in person.

Maybe he thinks if they find her remains, it will help his case in some sort of way.

I am on pins and needles waiting for the results.

For Beth and Dave's sake, I hope it is. They need to know. May God bless them.

Agree..sure is.

 

[otto]

Otto! It is like deja vu seeing you again. How nice, and I hope all is well with you. Ya Ya

Cheers - all is well ... do you think this bone was washed onto the beach with the recent storms, or do you think it that it could lead to a burial spot near the bird sanctuary? I'm hoping that this bone does belong to Natalee not only because it will give the family some closure, but because it will finally give insight into the mystery of what happened that night 5 years ago.

 

[otto]

My bolding

Where did you hear there wasn't any urgency? It had only been a few days, they first were waiting to get permission to test, they had to get Natalee's dental records and the tests themselves take time.

MOO is that they do have the results, they said from the beginning that the NFI would not make any announcements about the results and all announcements will come from the Aruban authorities. If there's any holdup, that's where it is.

What I'm saying is that this is not something that happened yesterday, so the investigation will not be impacted if the bone is examined as soon as possible , or in the order in which it was received.

 

[annalia]

I disagree, Natalee didn't disappear yesterday but a body part that was just found on the beach does immediately impact the investigation and time is important. If a body part washes ashore or is found on the beach there's a strong possibility that other parts of the body may have also washed ashore or close to where this was found. Time would be of the essence in testing the bone. Waiting til whenever they get around to testing it may lose the opportunity to find other evidence also taking into consideration that the area hasn't even been cordoned off.

I don't know how busy the NFI is in doing DNA tests on body parts found on missing persons but if they aren't doing the same testing on other missing people than IMO this should take precedence.

 

[Niner]

I'm going to take it that the notification of this jaw bone will be ON this thread???!!! I, too hope this is Natalie, to give her parents some peace....

 

[panthera]

While watching Jean C. she mentioned if 'someone had dropped' the bone.
I think this is odd.........the word dropped.
Like in someone took the bone there, now with Juran away from Aruba,
they want this over and done with so more tourists come back.

I have also thought of this possibility that the bone was placed there, rather than washing onto the beach. From what I understand, forensic testing would be able to tell if it has been in the ocean, swamp, etc. by residue left on it. MOO

 

[Scamperoo]

What if there is no DNA left to test and one tooth is not enough for a dental comparison?

 

[passionflower]

What if there is no DNA left to test and one tooth is not enough for a dental comparison?

I saw a crime program on TV once that even inside a tooth, is DNA.

 

[panthera]

I saw a crime program on TV once that even inside a tooth, is DNA.

My understanding is that is exactly where DNA is extracted from...inside the tooth. MOO

 

[Dr. Know?]

I heard on NG, I believe, the forensic expert Dr. Baden, said that the root canal is very deep and holds DNA for testing.

 

[suzihawk]

I was listening to Jean C who said that the area hasn't been cordoned off and people are freely walking about, that's concerning.

I really hope that Aruba and the NFI did give the DNA test high priority. I hope they're smart enough to realize the need to determine if it is Natalee's remains so the area can be secured and searches commencing to see if any other remains can be found. Time is of the essence if it is her and there is a possibility of any more of her remains being found.

This is the same sloppy police/investigative procedures we've come to be familiar with regarding the Aruban authorities.You'd think they would have learned a lesson or two from past experience.

 

[Carrington]

I do believe the jawbone will be Natalee's.
I also think it was planted, in an attempt to free Joran from Peru.
(which will never happen IMO).
If it does turn out to belong to Natalee, who would keep such evidence for 5 years?
Blackmail, personal safety from Joran or family love is my guess.

IMO

 

[passionflower]

I do believe the jawbone will be Natalee's.
I also think it was planted, in an attempt to free Joran from Peru.
(which will never happen IMO).
If it does turn out to belong to Natalee, who would keep such evidence for 5 years?
Blackmail, personal safety from Joran or family love is my guess.

IMO

My guesses would be former LE, mother,or the Kalpoe's.
No one kept the evidence, but knew exactly where to go get it, MOO.

It has to be Natalee by now, IMOO because the world probably has news crews in Aruba for days now.
I'm sure Peru, USA, Netherlands and Aruba sees this as very important news and law!

 

[karen7868]

My guesses would be former LE, mother,or the Kalpoe's.
No one kept the evidence, but knew exactly where to go get it, MOO.
It has to be Natalee by now, IMOO because the world probably has news crews in Aruba for days now.
I'm sure Peru, USA, Netherlands and Aruba sees this as very important news and law!

BBM. IMO, it is Mama VDS placed it to be found.

IMO, I believe she has known all along and now that her husband has passed away, which I think she was afraid of (he always appeared to be a wife abuser to me) and she has realized her son is not coming home from prison and perhaps has come to terms he is a psycopathic murderer and never coming home.

With both Joran and his father gone, perhaps she isn't afraid anymore and actually has some empathy for Beth & Dave.

She is a mother and maybe she saw the video of Beth w/ Joran and realized now she is in Beth's shoes (so to speak), but she at least KNOWS where her son is, unlike the Holloway's.

IMO, I have always thought she was buried under the VDS's house.

Again, JMO and still anxious for the results.