Aruba - Natalee Holloway, 18, Oranjestad, 30 May 2005 #1

[Meagain]

Umkay... Tomorrow it'll be 7-8 days? How long does this take? Hasn't it been enough time now?

 

[otto]

What official said that the timeline was not possible and not given any credibility? I don't recall any investigator saying that. I recall Japp's apartment was raided by police not long after and his things confiscated. Dompig also gave an interview afterwards and said that they believe that Joran disposing of Natalee in Bubali was very likely and that Bubali was never searched because it is protected.

Did you watch the video of Terror Jaap and Joran? That is where you will find four experts analyzing Joran's claims. The video is from March, and I don't have a link, but it is available on youtube.

 

[otto]

Yes this would qualify as an investigative urgency. If a part of a human body washed on shore or found on the beach then it's also conceivable that other parts of the body could be nearby. Determining if it is Natalee is urgent if there is a chance of finding other evidence. The more time goes on the more any other pieces of evidence could be lost.

Do you know for a fact that the NFI had other dealines and didn't make this a top priority?

Blanken came out and stated it was a female body part and then other reports stated they didn't know if it was human so there were mixed signals. And reports on the timeframe was coming from forensic experts not just reporters.

Why do you think that when one bone washes onto a beach during hurricane winds, that other bones will be nearby? It seems to me that it would be highly unlikely that this would happen, especially since the bone came from a skeleton that could have been moving around as 200 separate bones on the bottom of the ocean for years.

I don't know what obligations and commitments the Netherlands Forensic Institute has. I think you probably knew that before you asked me that question. I'm assuming that the NFI, like any DNA lab, is backed up. Morgan Harrington DNA results took months, so based on experience, I'm assuming that the NFI has similar obligations.

Some reports have said that because of the difficulties of extracting DNA, it could take weeks before results are known.

 

[otto]

Umkay... Tomorrow it'll be 7-8 days? How long does this take? Hasn't it been enough time now?

DNA analysis for most investigations takes weeks, if not months.

 

[JDzWife]

I wondered about the storm, Tomas, and the fact there was not a lot of seaweed or debris washed up on shore, according to Jean C. I have lived on Florida beaches for many years and through bad storms and even hurricanes, there was always seaweed, debris, dead sea life up and down the beach for weeks after. That certainly raised a red flag to me and made the "planting of evidence", i.e., mandible, very plausible. MOO, of course.

 

[otto]

I wondered about the storm, Tomas, and the fact there was not a lot of seaweed or debris washed up on shore, according to Jean C. I have lived on Florida beaches for many years and through bad storms and even hurricanes, there was always seaweed, debris, dead sea life up and down the beach for weeks after. That certainly raised a red flag to me and made the "planting of evidence", i.e., mandible, very plausible. MOO, of course.

That may be because November 13 was that annual Aruba Hotel & Tourism Association environmental committee cleanup between 8 AM and 11:30 AM. Since the bone was found on November 12, the following day was beach clean up day, and Jean arrived later, there's no need to raise a red flag about the clean beaches.

 

[suzihawk]

That may be because November 13 was that annual Aruba Hotel & Tourism Association environmental committee cleanup between 8 AM and 11:30 AM. Since the bone was found on November 12, the following day was beach clean up day, and Jean arrived later, there's no need to raise a red flag about the clean beaches.

What a coincidence, eh!? It's just remarkable how many coincidences this case has. :dance:

 

[bhammom]

Does anyone find it unusual that we haven't heard anything about the American tourists who found the bone? I haven't heard their names or where they were from. When the couple from Pennsylvania found the photo of a "skeleton" that turned out to be a coral reef it was all over the news.

 

[otto]

What a coincidence, eh!? It's just remarkable how many coincidences this case has. :dance:

The clean-up crew would have found any additional bones that were washed ashore during the storms, so it is a happy coincidence.

 

[butwhatif?]

I think they know by now whether or not the jawbone belongs to Natalee; if it weren't, they would be shouting it from the rooftops, perhaps telling us all it's just another darn animal bone. I'm not an expert, but come on. I'm so glad that Aruban authorities are most likely dragging their feet on this one, and I'm so glad to know they continue to keep the family in the dark. Gold stars for all.

If this were any other case, I would say certain theories are ridiculous, but when it comes to this one, I don't rule out anything.

I feel like I keep repeating myself, but I'm just so angry.

But if it isn't Natalee then they have another (allegedly) young white female's remains on their hands. And IIRC they said there are no other missing persons fitting that description.

I can't imagine they'd be wanting to scream that from the rooftops, especially if they care more about tourism and the mighty dollar than justice.

I do hope this is confirmed to be Natalee so that her family and loved ones, as well as all the people who have followed the case so closely can have some closure, and so that JVDS pays for what he has done.

JMO

 

[Fluffy Puppy]

You know what I don't understand? Why they asked for dental records.

There is nothing better than a DNA identification. I am wondering if they couldn't extract any DNA.

 

[eachandevery]

But if it isn't Natalee then they have another (allegedly) young white female's remains on their hands. And IIRC they said there are no other missing persons fitting that description.

I can't imagine they'd be wanting to scream that from the rooftops, especially if they care more about tourism and the mighty dollar than justice.

I do hope this is confirmed to be Natalee so that her family and loved ones, as well as all the people who have followed the case so closely can have some closure, and so that JVDS pays for what he has done.

JMO

That's a good point, butwhatif?.

I think they would figure out a way to spin the news in their favour, if the remains happen to not be Natalee's. I'm sure a script has been written, just in case. After all this time, and having read Beth's book, I wouldn't put anything past them; they can be pretty creative when it comes to explanations.

If the above is scattered and nonsensical, it's because I have so many thoughts about this case, combined with a lot of anger, and the mix is resulting in the equivalent of a spoken "blasgoiadgdsdd!"

 

[Nova]

Good comparison. Somebody asked about the Probability. P= r/n where
r is one specific outcome and n is the total number of outcomes possible.
We already have a strong clue. The bone is that of a young female European
woman (YFEW). Assuming this bone washed up on the beach, How many YFEW's
have gone lost in the last decade off this beach? Only 1 or 2, I would presume.
If that is true then this bone has a 50-50 chance of being Natalie Holloway! But,
we can refine the probability further.

The bones must be recent and available near the surface of the bay bottom and
not covered by sediment, in order for them to be washed up on to a shore during
a storm event. And, how many storms have occurred off this beach in the last 5
years? (P=1) = P1 + P2 + P3. Under these conditions if you assume only 1 YFEW
and only one storm, then the odds of this being Natalie are almost 1:1. Moreover,
if we knew more about how far out and from what direction storm surges can bring
light bottom material to the beach, then we can also define an area where the bone
most likely came from.

The odds seem favorable this is Natalie's jaw bone, unless some there
are oter options we do not know about.

Even before the bone is examined we know there is a very strong probability the
bone belongs to Natalie. The known mathematical options favour that. We know
the bone is that of a YFEW - that increases the odds even further. Unless there
are options we know nothing about, this jaw bone probably belongs to a:

Young Caucasian European Female.

How many are there off this beach? Only one that I know of.

These are different approaches to the issue of probability from what I was asking, but I appreciate the thinking. I don't know if a bone found in Aruba MUST have originated in Aruba, or whether it could have been carried there from Venezuela, for example.

But on the whole, I agree with you that the probability that the jawbone is from NH is high.

My question was re the reliability of a one-tooth match to dental records. I'm speculating dental records are far less reliable when there isn't a full set of teeth to which the records can be compared. (And so LE may well want a DNA match before making an announcement.)

 

[Amalie]

You know what I don't understand? Why they asked for dental records.

There is nothing better than a DNA identification. I am wondering if they couldn't extract any DNA.

Why not do both which would confirm each other.

Dental confirmation can be done in a matter of minutes, although with only one tooth it might be more difficult than a full set. Teeth are like fingerprints, no two are alike. One tooth though would be akin to a partial fingerprint.

 

[Carrington]

I heard on NG, I believe, the forensic expert Dr. Baden, said that the root canal is very deep and holds DNA for testing.

I believe this post answers some questions.

IMO

 

[Nova]

No, you're not the only one to find this far-fetched. In fact, it's outrageously farfeched to think that Anita has Natalee's remains hidden in her house (or car, or tulip patch) and that she placed a bone on a beach. You are also correct in that Peru has clearly stated that Joran will remain in Peru until he has been tried, convicted, and served his sentence. Anita made some efforts to have Joran transferred to a mental hospital in the Netherlands shortly after his arrest, but that obviously was not successful.

I think posters should consider how outraged PERUVIANS would be if JVDS were suddenly whisked off to Aruba and out of Peruvian hands.

The answer, I suspect, is that Peruvians would be just as outraged as Americans have been that one of our nationals was killed and her alleged killer remains outside our control. Only more so, because THEY had the suspect in their custody, which Americans never did.

IMHO, there's no way the government of Peru wants to face that degree of public anger, no matter what bribes are offered.

Joran ain't going anywhere in my lifetime. (I'm 56.)

 

[Nova]

It's no more ghoulish than Anita describing Natalee's panties in great detail to Beth and Greta Van Susteren.

Uh, yeah, it kinda is.

But I accept your point that there have been plenty of oddities in this case.

 

[Nova]

Why not do both which would confirm each other.

Dental confirmation can be done in a matter of minutes, although with only one tooth it might be more difficult than a full set. Teeth are like fingerprints, no two are alike. One tooth though would be akin to a partial fingerprint.

That's basically what I was saying, Amalie. It may be the one tooth seems to match or doesn't seem to match, and either way, LE wants to do DNA tests before they make any announcements.

As I'm sure you know, there is considerable controversy about partial fingerprints and their reliability.

 

[Nova]

I believe this post answers some questions.

IMO

I didn't hear that broadcast, but I doubt the Dutch call Baden to offer inside info.

I suspect Baden was speaking of a tooth in general, not this particular tooth.

Whether the single tooth attached to the recovered jawbone has DNA will depend on whether the enamel of the tooth was breached by wear and tear since the death of its owner.

 

[hollyblue]

Why do you think that when one bone washes onto a beach during hurricane winds, that other bones will be nearby? It seems to me that it would be highly unlikely that this would happen, especially since the bone came from a skeleton that could have been moving around as 200 separate bones on the bottom of the ocean for years.

I don't know what obligations and commitments the Netherlands Forensic Institute has. I think you probably knew that before you asked me that question. I'm assuming that the NFI, like any DNA lab, is backed up. Morgan Harrington DNA results took months, so based on experience, I'm assuming that the NFI has similar obligations.

Some reports have said that because of the difficulties of extracting DNA, it could take weeks before results are known.

I really can't see or understand the difficulty. It takes a dentist how long to perform a root canal and this is basically how they would be extracting DNA. The pulp of the tooth contains the nerve and tissue for tooth nutrition. DNA comparison to NH's shouldn't take that long either. Drill, extract, test and compare.

http://www.dentalfind.com/info/pulp