The synoptic weather maps, minimum and maximum temperature accurate as they were recorded on the day and reported in the following days newspaper as was clearly labelled. The minimum temperature from midnight to 7.30 am on 10th June 1988 was between 11 and 14 degrees. Similar to a summers day in England, wouldn't you say? That accurate synoptic chart is also posted the day after it occurred so no guessing there either. Just depends if you can read it or not. That's where BOM had to be accurate as they didn't have as many tools available to them So reading the same synoptic charts as you and having the evidence of the weather that occurred and was recorded in the previous and following days they were proved to be accurate.
What was not accurate was
http://www.websleuths.com/forums/sh...97-Perth-WA-14/page62&p=13393776#post13393776
Quote metic: Quotefrom *researcher; " it was a stormy period ! i think currentsdefinitely would have been north to south
and big waves too" Initialreply from Physical oceanographer ....Also of note ;
It was stormy wild wetwinter weather conditions before the 21st and after the 23rd which must havemade searching very difficult . Not surprisingly the car was found during the(only) finest day of all the period 15th-28th june 1988.
This was accurate:
"...The
front was fragmented in structure and rainfall was only expected to be light in inland districts. The front had brought one of the few SW changes in recent weeks, consequently colder air of southern origin was extending through the SW. Pressures are expected to rise rapidly behind the front and fine weather was expected to develop in the SW. ...
This is shown to be correct from the weather that occurred and recorded both before and after and previously published here.
Monday 20th June 1988 Temp 10.7 degrees at 7.30 am and max 18.4 degrees at 2.25 pm. (published West Australian 21 June 1988)
Tuesday 21[SUP]st[/SUP] June 1988 Forecast Perth fine and cool. North East winds 5 to 12 knots. Seas should be 0.5 m on a swell to 2.5 m.Temp 8 19 degrees.
Extended forecast: With a high pressure cell establishing itself over the southern half, fine conditions should persist over the State until late tomorrow. A front should approach the coast tomorrow night and cross the lower west coast on Thursday.
Wednesday 22[SUP]nd[/SUP] June 1988 Forecast Fine. Outlook showers developing. Temp 10 20.
Fine and sunny conditions prevailed through the northern half, while the southern half experienced similar conditions at 4.00pm yesterday. A high pressure system was located over the Eucla and is presently bringing fine weather to almost the whole state. These conditions should persist except for the extreme SW corner where isolated showers are forecast. With clear skies and light winds inland areas should be in for another cold night with local frosts in the southern half. The seasonal fine weather should persist in the northern half.
The link doesn't take me to the actual post unfortunately, What date was it ?
if i recall correctly, that was in April , 6 months ago .
At that stage we had not seen your newspaper weather reports, PeteDavo's
Trove links ,Spinnakers map (17th) or the 44 color maps from the Oceanographer at U.W.A.
That Was just in the early stages of the oceanweather hindcasting project, with limited information .
Im pretty close to spot on with the Oceanographer anyway .
Today i recieved an email from UWA's Physical Oceanographer after i pleaded to them for more detailed information.
They confirmed the Front on Sunday afternoon, with fresh westerly winds and certified the big waves .
Quote :
"I looked at the ECMWF ERA-Interim model for that time.
Looks like the front and the biggest waves were on the 19th June,
Then a high pressure came in and caused fine weather over next few days,
with dropping but still solid swell.
Offshore rottnest waves were ~ 5 m on morning of 19 June,
front came through that afternoon.
Then by morning of 20th , swell was dropping but still ~ 4 m .
Winds shifting around to SE and over 20-23rd waves were 3-35 metres
with high pressure and offshore East / NE winds."
Quote Oceanographer, fri 27th October.
"This is from CSIRO, hindcast, similar to the other but better resolution - probably the best available for that date."
https://data.csiro.au/dap/landingpage?pid=csiro:6616
"Model shows same thing , with one detail and slightly bigger heights - 19th was huge (up to 7 m)
and 30 knot westerly winds .
Mon 20th it was clearing up and wind shifting offshore with dropping swell.
Swell on 19th was pretty west, around 230-240 degrees."
Thats is the opinion of a UWA Doctor of physical oceanography .
