Australia Australia - Theo Hayez, 18, Belgian backpacker, Byron Bay, June 2019 #2

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mussopossum said:
The parents of Belgian backpacker Theo Hayez reveal the 'grey areas' in police investigation | Daily Mail Online


The missing pieces in the hunt for Theo Hayez: Belgian backpacker's dad breaks his silence after search was called off to reveal the 'grey areas' in police investigation
Click to expand...


How do police investigate this type of thing, if these lads are all found much later in the water, or not found at all?
It's like Ivan Milat. No-one can know unless someone survives to tell their story.


Top forensic psychologist Tim Watson-Munro says believes Theo could have been the victim of an unknown serial killer, along with two 20-year-old backpackers who went missing on the NSW north coast months prior.
The parents of Belgian backpacker Theo Hayez reveal the 'grey areas' in police investigation | Daily Mail Online
 
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“It’s a bit too cute to say they all drowned. It’s a huge coincidence if that’s the case.”

"We believe from the DNA comparisons that it belongs to Erwan Ferrieux."

No trace of Palmer has been found.

"You cannot discount the fact that you have three young men of very similar profiles who have gone missing or are dead from two coastal towns which in the scheme of Australia’s geography are quite close," he told the newspaper.

"Statistically the odds of three backpackers missing in the same region in a short space of time is very unlikely and we know that these type of killers prey on vulnerable people or those that are likely not been missed for some time."
"It’s a huge coincidence."
MamaMia- July 18, 2019
 
@mussopossum , thanks again for all the photos!

Initially I was thinking why didn't I go over to the rocks and take a look, when I was there (a week after you?) Only now it dawns on me, it was close to high tide when I went! What I saw was very different from your view. I only saw the tip of the highest rocks in your photos, I think. That area just looked like part of the sea.

The other thing is, what is Google Map's assumption for drawing coastlines - high tide or low tide? Not a question in geography classes in my day for sure. I went to the beach and assumed I found the "last spot" on Theo's route. That was based on the coastline I saw at the time. It must be metres up from where you were located at,
mussopossum said:
4. final ping as per msm map

If you zoom in to this other photo you will see area where fence is. This is where it seems other red dots were where he walked up did a loop on map then back again I may also note the area where fence was there was fair bit rubbish like cans butts etc in one spot but could be due high tide
Click to expand...

Do you see what I mean? It's getting late, no time to look up photos... Later...
 
Via Marple said:
@mussopossum , thanks again for all the photos!

Initially I was thinking why didn't I go over to the rocks and take a look, when I was there (a week after you?) Only now it dawns on me, it was close to high tide when I went! What I saw was very different from your view. I only saw the tip of the highest rocks in your photos, I think. That area just looked like part of the sea.

The other thing is, what is Google Map's assumption for drawing coastlines - high tide or low tide? Not a question in geography classes in my day for sure. I went to the beach and assumed I found the "last spot" on Theo's route. That was based on the coastline I saw at the time. It must be metres up from where you were located at,


Do you see what I mean? It's getting late, no time to look up photos... Later...
Click to expand...
Via Marple said:
@mussopossum , thanks again for all the photos!

Initially I was thinking why didn't I go over to the rocks and take a look, when I was there (a week after you?) Only now it dawns on me, it was close to high tide when I went! What I saw was very different from your view. I only saw the tip of the highest rocks in your photos, I think. That area just looked like part of the sea.

The other thing is, what is Google Map's assumption for drawing coastlines - high tide or low tide? Not a question in geography classes in my day for sure. I went to the beach and assumed I found the "last spot" on Theo's route. That was based on the coastline I saw at the time. It must be metres up from where you were located at,


Do you see what I mean? It's getting late, no time to look up photos... Later...
Click to expand...


Really good point. That is good that you saw it at high tide too. How far up the sand was high tide?

What would be good is to visit that spot at same tide height as that night (in the day time)

If a group of volunteers would join me for safety in numbers, I would actually go at night in large numbers just to recreate the same scenario to see what could and could not be seen at the time and where the tide was.

I may actually do a high tide based on when the tide came in that morning at 6am to see the same approx height and where the water was sitting at the time.

I am heading up to the beaches again in the next few weeks when time off to do some walks so I might slot that one in again.

It is a shame that MSM map was not released in satellite mode would be so much more helpful.

Im not good with tides and maps so may beed help on that one.
 
This was what I was saying in my last post. If you compare the photos I posted, which were taken at high tide on 27th July to your photos at low tide on 2nd August you can get an idea of the difference.
The high tide on 27th July was 1.46 metres at 4.41pm
High tide on 1st June was 1.41 metres, low tide .04 metres.
Low tide on 2nd August was .011 metres at 2pm.
Screenshot_20190919-080733_Chrome.jpg Screenshot_20190919-080733_Chrome.jpg Screenshot_20190917-214648_Chrome.jpg
It's interesting to note that the different tide heights in the days after Theo was last seen as well.

As I said with the pics on page 4 @Via Marple ; the rock area water level and level from down the beach look very different.

Hope this gives a bit of insight into the tides and photos.

I had this photo in my screen shots too...don't remember why? But it may give an idea on the tide and shoreline?
Screenshot_20190725-093643_Chrome.jpg

Good idea to head back and check out different tide heights and the rock area in particular!
Edited to add For some reason your quote wasn't added to this reply @mussopossum . Was meant too..
 

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Jenz said:
This was what I was saying in my last post. If you compare the photos I posted, which were taken at high tide on 27th July to your photos at low tide on 2nd August you can get an idea of the difference.
The high tide on 27th July was 1.46 metres at 4.41pm
High tide on 1st June was 1.41 metres, low tide .04 metres.
Low tide on 2nd August was .011 metres at 2pm.
View attachment 205250 View attachment 205250 View attachment 205252
It's interesting to note that the different tide heights in the days after Theo was last seen as well.

As I said with the pics on page 4 @Via Marple ; the rock area water level and level from down the beach look very different.

Hope this gives a bit of insight into the tides and photos.

I had this photo in my screen shots too...don't remember why? But it may give an idea on the tide and shoreline?
View attachment 205254

Good idea to head back and check out different tide heights and the rock area in particular!
Edited to add For some reason your quote wasn't added to this reply @mussopossum . Was meant too..
Click to expand...
Just to add that I was there on 9 Aug... Will look up tides later!

Too bad I am now holed up in the big city, no chance returning any time soon.

Also we may be looking like nuts to some.... A route that is unconfirmed, family said it is not 100% accurate. And yet we cling on to it.

But don't forget, the search group seems sure about it. They are not saying of course. But you get the hints.
 
Via Marple said:
Just to add that I was there on 9 Aug... Will look up tides later!

Too bad I am now holed up in the big city, no chance returning any time soon.

Also we may be looking like nuts to some.... A route that is unconfirmed, family said it is not 100% accurate. And yet we cling on to it.

But don't forget, the search group seems sure about it. They are not saying of course. But you get the hints.
Click to expand...

I wish LE would publish (if any) route.

There is also that Map from when the Belgians were here too to consider however that appeared to only be their walking map

I am happy to look like a nut :)

I enjoy beach walks and it is a day out for me.
 
mussopossum said:
I wish LE would publish (if any) route.

There is also that Map from when the Belgians were here too to consider however that appeared to only be their walking map

I am happy to look like a nut :)

I enjoy beach walks and it is a day out for me.
Click to expand...

I don't think anyone will take that much notice really of us being nuts...it is Byron after All

For some reason, I want to keep the search for Theo happening; we may never find him but to just look at the tide, beach, some bushland which I am keen to take a look at in the area may fill in some wonderings....

I love Byron. To explore this beautiful place in a different light, I struggle with the idea foul play was involved...though it cannot be dismissed at this point in time I guess?

Hopefully, for Theo's family, the coroner's inquest will give them some kind of closure....

My heart goes out to Theo's Dad, Mum, Brother, Cousins and all their families...
 
mussopossum said:
The one thing I just noticed looking back at my photos is that the ping kept changing between Tallow Beach and Cape Byron Conservation. Interesting.
Click to expand...
That's interesting given that the first area of search after the ping was made public was in the bushland at Clarke's Beach. I'm wondering if the Cape tower only might serve that.
 
"That's interesting given that the first area of search after the ping was made public was in the bushland at Clarke's Beach. I'm wondering if the Cape tower only might serve that."

Where is Clarke's Beach ? I can't find it on Google Maps.
 
espirtu pampa said:
"That's interesting given that the first area of search after the ping was made public was in the bushland at Clarke's Beach. I'm wondering if the Cape tower only might serve that."

Where is Clarke's Beach ? I can't find it on Google Maps.
Click to expand...
Clarkes is where the Cafe and the camping ground is on the beach. From main beach it runs past Clarkes to The Pass at the end. Road down into The Pass. Bushland in and around The Pass. I think the search was from Clarkes so it took in that bushland heading towards Wategoes and possibly ocean side of the road.
 
SouthAussie said:
How do police investigate this type of thing, if these lads are all found much later in the water, or not found at all?
It's like Ivan Milat. No-one can know unless someone survives to tell their story.


Top forensic psychologist Tim Watson-Munro says believes Theo could have been the victim of an unknown serial killer, along with two 20-year-old backpackers who went missing on the NSW north coast months prior.
The parents of Belgian backpacker Theo Hayez reveal the 'grey areas' in police investigation | Daily Mail Online
Click to expand...
The problem with investigating a potential serial killer is it takes time and a lot of investigation. More victims will, unfortunately, present a pattern and people will have information. Time and personality reveal the unsub IF they are revealed at all. Some psychopaths desire recognition and will get in touch with the police. This is how BTK got caught. They also insert themselves into investigations (a lot of them). Time. Investigation and following all leads.
 
Aron.Wor said:
The problem with investigating a potential serial killer is it takes time and a lot of investigation. More victims will, unfortunately, present a pattern and people will have information. Time and personality reveal the unsub IF they are revealed at all. Some psychopaths desire recognition and will get in touch with the police. This is how BTK got caught. They also insert themselves into investigations (a lot of them). Time. Investigation and following all leads.
Click to expand...
What's actually interesting about the Ivan Milat case, is there were police errors made along the way. The police could have caught Ivan sooner. Paul Onions, when he escaped from Ivan, went to a police station, but it was closed. The second police station he went to was so far away, that it was too late to catch Ivan. Paul Onions also made several phone calls to the Aus police, was it wasn't taken seriously till years later. I'm a bit foggy on the details, as I researched this case years ago. I think I have mentioned this before, but a forensic psychologist and Milat's first lawyer believe there was a second Unsub. I'm not sure that Task Force Air got it completely right.
In Ivan's case, there were correlations between the victim pool. A psychological profile would have been made, but between the evidence, and the profile, there weren't many eye witness accounts that were reliable. In fact, another member of the Milat family was calling the police reporting contradictory information.

Ed Kemper operated for ten years till he turned himself in. Denis Raider aka BTK was operating for the same amount of time until he sent the police disks from a computer that could be traced, and was traced to a church. The green river killer was only caught because another serial killer gave the FBI information on how to catch him. If the killer is good at what they do, it's probable they can continue for a very long time.
 
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