Australia Australia - William Tyrrell, 3, Kendall, NSW, 12 Sep 2014 - #68

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centred said:
Granted but it does indicate where RP and his car were ....

"His friend, Ray Porter – who has since died from kidney failure – allegedly told a nurse that he had driven “his best fishing mate” Abbott and “that little boy from the television” 300km north on September 13.

Highway cameras showed Ray’s car driving south at Kew on that date, with the car appearing on cameras near Port Macquarie the next day."
Click to expand...
The car, at least. There is some doubt about whether RP would have been in a condition to be travelling around the day after his hospital admission.
 

My thoughts went to the time of the photo too.

I wonder if new technology has been used to re-examine cell phone location data. Maybe this data contradicts the statements of the foster carers?[/QUOTE]
I agree. I’ve always thought WT was looking up, probably at the MFC in one of those photos - noting the claim that they were playing Daddy Tiger at the time. IMO
 
LIBPOP said:
I agree. I’ve always thought WT was looking up, probably at the MFC in one of those photos - noting the claim that they were playing Daddy Tiger at the time. IMO
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That picture was taken from around 450-500mm above the deck. I doubt the FFM was looking through the viewfinder when she took it - I know I can't bend down that far. It's more likely she took the picture from lower than her head height while crouched and that William was looking at her face.
 
Underbelly said:
That picture was taken from around 450-500mm above the deck. I doubt the FFM was looking through the viewfinder when she took it - I know I can't bend down that far. It's more likely she took the picture from lower than her head height while crouched and that William was looking at her face.
Click to expand...
It’s WT looking away from the camera, and not at the person taking the photo, up into the space behind them that gives me this impression.
 
Underbelly said:
That picture was taken from around 450-500mm above the deck. I doubt the FFM was looking through the viewfinder when she took it - I know I can't bend down that far. It's more likely she took the picture from lower than her head height while crouched and that William was looking at her face.
Click to expand...
I have tried to replicate this angle and I really don't think it is physically possible to do o_O
 
Travelling Wilbury said:
Well they must have major involvement if they asked the FM to attend a hearing about WT’s disappearance and she allegedly provided false information.

William Tyrrell’s foster mother charged with giving misleading evidence | New South Wales | The Guardian
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The foster mother of missing child William Tyrrell provided a NSW Crime Commission hearing about the boy’s disappearance with false or misleading information, police have alleged.

I think that's the first time any journalist has made that claim (BBM) outright. Supposition on his part or fact?

I have emailed Elias Vistonay and asked him the source of that claim.
 
does anybody know why results of an inquest would be sealed, eg fas 3 yr old son?
ive tried googling but nothing?
 
bearbear said:
does anybody know why results of an inquest would be sealed, eg fas 3 yr old son?
ive tried googling but nothing?
Click to expand...
I don't know bearbear, but I'm wondering if the results of the toddler’s demise are too distressing for public release. However, I am not sure what that has to do with William, because AFAIK, police have never confirmed any link between FA and William. Sure, he is reportedly a terrible human being and is in jail for child sexual abuse, but has there been any proof that he may have been involved in William's disappearance? Has NSW Police confirmed he remains a POI in William's disappearance? AFAIK, the last we heard, the former FFC was the "the sole POI".
William Tyrrell’s foster mother emerges as person of interest
 
SleepyJoe said:
I don't know bearbear, but I'm wondering if the results of the toddler’s demise are too distressing for public release. However, I am not sure what that has to do with William, because AFAIK, police have never confirmed any link between FA and William. Sure, he is reportedly a terrible human being and is in jail for child sexual abuse, but has there been any proof that he may have been involved in William's disappearance? Has NSW Police confirmed he remains a POI in William's disappearance? AFAIK, the last we heard, the former FFC was the "the sole POI".
William Tyrrell’s foster mother emerges as person of interest
Click to expand...

Lets hope he stays in jail too. There was a search conducted on the area where he lived in a caravan but didn’t seem to (or reported as yet) as finding anything of note.

A while back I google map searched the firebreak from the dead end at Benaroon Dve and it does eventually lead to a road where his area can be accessed. But I’d imagine being a fire break, you’d need a 4wd or at least a vehicle with adequate clearance to traverse that track, which I’m not sure FA had. Imo
 
SleepyJoe said:
I don't know bearbear, but I'm wondering if the results of the toddler’s demise are too distressing for public release. However, I am not sure what that has to do with William, because AFAIK, police have never confirmed any link between FA and William. Sure, he is reportedly a terrible human being and is in jail for child sexual abuse, but has there been any proof that he may have been involved in William's disappearance? Has NSW Police confirmed he remains a POI in William's disappearance? AFAIK, the last we heard, the former FFC was the "the sole POI".
William Tyrrell’s foster mother emerges as person of interest
Click to expand...

"However, I am not sure what that has to do with William, because AFAIK, police have never confirmed any link between FA and William."

Incorrect. He was labeled a POI in this case in mainstream media:

NO ALIBI: Shock twist in investigation into missing toddler William Tyrrell


William Tyrrell investigation reveals person of interest Frank Abbott has no alibi on day of disappearance
A convicted pedophile cannot find anyone to vouch for his whereabouts on the day of William Tyrrell’s disappearance, a bombshell 7NEWS investigation has revealed.
 
I understand that it seems easier to accept that a known paedophile is responsible for William’s disappearance (through an abduction) than an upper middle-class North Shore foster carer is responsible. Even though it is hard to imagine that anyone might want to harm a beautiful 3yo boy, I totally understand why some would rather think someone like FA was responsible. But the fact is, stranger abduction of children is extremely rare. While exact statistics are hard to come by, less than 1% of children who are reported missing have fallen prey to random stranger abduction. The Truth About Child Abduction Statistics in 2022

However, if we look at things purely from a rational point of view, statistics show that the sad truth is that William is much more likely to have died in foster care as children in foster care are particularly at risk of harm. While the following data is from the US, Australian data can be expected to be similar. Note that children of William’s age are at the highest risk.

"Children in the foster care system are 42% more likely to die than children in the general population, a study published in JAMA Pediatrics showed..... Barbara H. Chaiyachati, MD, PhD, a fellow in child abuse pediatrics at the Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia, and colleagues analyzed data on children in the foster care system from 2003 to 2016 and found that there were 35.4 deaths per 100,000 person-years compared with 25 in the general population, with an incidence rate ratio of 1.42 (95% CI, 1.37-1.47)...... There also was a higher mortality rate among children aged 1 to 4 years — 50.7 deaths per 100,000 person-years (95% CI, 47.8-53.6) vs. 27.5 deaths per 100,000 person-years (95% CI, 27.3-27.7) among children aged 1 to 4 years in the general population..... During the study period, mortality rates among children in foster care remained steady, whereas mortality rates of children in the general population decreased by 2.5%, according to the study."
https://www.healio.com/news/pediatrics/20200424/children-in-foster-care
In addition, generally speaking, children are much more likely to be killed by a parent or acquaintance than by a stranger. Child homicide perpetrators worldwide: a systematic review

So even though none of us know what happened to William <modsnip>, we have to question our assumptions and biases and consider that even though it may be easier to think that a paedophile boogey-man like FA has taken him, statistics show that it is more likely that he died at the hands of those who were caring for him. Of course, that doesn't rule out that someone like FA was responsible, but we have to accept that it is unlikely.
 
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SleepyJoe said:
I understand that it seems easier to accept that a known paedophile is responsible for William’s disappearance (through an abduction) than an upper middle-class North Shore foster carer is responsible. Even though it is hard to imagine that anyone might want to harm a beautiful 3yo boy, I totally understand why some would rather think someone like FA was responsible. But the fact is, stranger abduction of children is extremely rare. While exact statistics are hard to come by, less than 1% of children who are reported missing have fallen prey to random stranger abduction. The Truth About Child Abduction Statistics in 2022

However, if we look at things purely from a rational point of view, statistics show that the sad truth is that William is much more likely to have died in foster care as children in foster care are particularly at risk of harm. While the following data is from the US, Australian data can be expected to be similar. Note that children of William’s age are at the highest risk.

"Children in the foster care system are 42% more likely to die than children in the general population, a study published in JAMA Pediatrics showed..... Barbara H. Chaiyachati, MD, PhD, a fellow in child abuse pediatrics at the Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia, and colleagues analyzed data on children in the foster care system from 2003 to 2016 and found that there were 35.4 deaths per 100,000 person-years compared with 25 in the general population, with an incidence rate ratio of 1.42 (95% CI, 1.37-1.47)...... There also was a higher mortality rate among children aged 1 to 4 years — 50.7 deaths per 100,000 person-years (95% CI, 47.8-53.6) vs. 27.5 deaths per 100,000 person-years (95% CI, 27.3-27.7) among children aged 1 to 4 years in the general population..... During the study period, mortality rates among children in foster care remained steady, whereas mortality rates of children in the general population decreased by 2.5%, according to the study."
https://www.healio.com/news/pediatrics/20200424/children-in-foster-care
In addition, generally speaking, children are much more likely to be killed by a parent or acquaintance than by a stranger. Child homicide perpetrators worldwide: a systematic review

So even though none of us know what happened to William <modsnip>, we have to question our assumptions and biases and consider that even though it may be easier to think that a paedophile boogey-man like FA has taken him, statistics show that it is more likely that he died at the hands of those who were caring for him. Of course, that's doesn't rule out that someone like FA was responsible, but we have to accept that it is unlikely.
Click to expand...
Speaking of looking at things in an unbiased manner, when you say children in foster care are more likely to die, than children in gen pop---doesn't that include foster children who die at the hands of bio family members? It is not just foster carers that can be abusive. Most of those foster kids would not be in care if not for problems in their birth family circumstances.

I know the statistics say it is only 1%---but look at the recent case where that is exactly what happened/. The little girl taken right out of her tent while her family was asleep feet away. People threw that same statistic out to make it seem like we should all be looking at her parents instead of a pedophile/stranger.
 
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SleepyJoe said:
I understand that it seems easier to accept that a known paedophile is responsible for William’s disappearance (through an abduction) than an upper middle-class North Shore foster carer is responsible. Even though it is hard to imagine that anyone might want to harm a beautiful 3yo boy, I totally understand why some would rather think someone like FA was responsible. But the fact is, stranger abduction of children is extremely rare. While exact statistics are hard to come by, less than 1% of children who are reported missing have fallen prey to random stranger abduction. The Truth About Child Abduction Statistics in 2022

However, if we look at things purely from a rational point of view, statistics show that the sad truth is that William is much more likely to have died in foster care as children in foster care are particularly at risk of harm. While the following data is from the US, Australian data can be expected to be similar. Note that children of William’s age are at the highest risk.

"Children in the foster care system are 42% more likely to die than children in the general population, a study published in JAMA Pediatrics showed..... Barbara H. Chaiyachati, MD, PhD, a fellow in child abuse pediatrics at the Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia, and colleagues analyzed data on children in the foster care system from 2003 to 2016 and found that there were 35.4 deaths per 100,000 person-years compared with 25 in the general population, with an incidence rate ratio of 1.42 (95% CI, 1.37-1.47)...... There also was a higher mortality rate among children aged 1 to 4 years — 50.7 deaths per 100,000 person-years (95% CI, 47.8-53.6) vs. 27.5 deaths per 100,000 person-years (95% CI, 27.3-27.7) among children aged 1 to 4 years in the general population..... During the study period, mortality rates among children in foster care remained steady, whereas mortality rates of children in the general population decreased by 2.5%, according to the study."
https://www.healio.com/news/pediatrics/20200424/children-in-foster-care
In addition, generally speaking, children are much more likely to be killed by a parent or acquaintance than by a stranger. Child homicide perpetrators worldwide: a systematic review

So even though none of us know what happened to William <modsnip> , we have to question our assumptions and biases and consider that even though it may be easier to think that a paedophile boogey-man like FA has taken him, statistics show that it is more likely that he died at the hands of those who were caring for him. Of course, that's doesn't rule out that someone like FA was responsible, but we have to accept that it is unlikely.
Click to expand...

Staggering and such saddening statistics. Wow.
 
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katydid23 said:
Speaking of looking at things in an unbiased manner, when you say children in foster care are more likely to die, than children in gen pop---doesn't that include foster children who die at the hands of bio family members?
Click to expand...

Katy, if you read the study, it is talking about the higher risk of death of children in foster care while in foster care. ie while under the care of their foster carers. This is not bias, this is the result of a scientific study - something entirely different to bias.
 
SleepyJoe said:
I understand that it seems easier to accept that a known paedophile is responsible for William’s disappearance (through an abduction) than an upper middle-class North Shore foster carer is responsible. Even though it is hard to imagine that anyone might want to harm a beautiful 3yo boy, I totally understand why some would rather think someone like FA was responsible. But the fact is, stranger abduction of children is extremely rare. While exact statistics are hard to come by, less than 1% of children who are reported missing have fallen prey to random stranger abduction. The Truth About Child Abduction Statistics in 2022

However, if we look at things purely from a rational point of view, statistics show that the sad truth is that William is much more likely to have died in foster care as children in foster care are particularly at risk of harm. While the following data is from the US, Australian data can be expected to be similar. Note that children of William’s age are at the highest risk.

"Children in the foster care system are 42% more likely to die than children in the general population, a study published in JAMA Pediatrics showed..... Barbara H. Chaiyachati, MD, PhD, a fellow in child abuse pediatrics at the Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia, and colleagues analyzed data on children in the foster care system from 2003 to 2016 and found that there were 35.4 deaths per 100,000 person-years compared with 25 in the general population, with an incidence rate ratio of 1.42 (95% CI, 1.37-1.47)...... There also was a higher mortality rate among children aged 1 to 4 years — 50.7 deaths per 100,000 person-years (95% CI, 47.8-53.6) vs. 27.5 deaths per 100,000 person-years (95% CI, 27.3-27.7) among children aged 1 to 4 years in the general population..... During the study period, mortality rates among children in foster care remained steady, whereas mortality rates of children in the general population decreased by 2.5%, according to the study."
https://www.healio.com/news/pediatrics/20200424/children-in-foster-care
In addition, generally speaking, children are much more likely to be killed by a parent or acquaintance than by a stranger. Child homicide perpetrators worldwide: a systematic review

So even though none of us know what happened to William (unless the perpetrator is on this forum!), we have to question our assumptions and biases and consider that even though it may be easier to think that a paedophile boogey-man like FA has taken him, statistics show that it is more likely that he died at the hands of those who were caring for him. Of course, that doesn't rule out that someone like FA was responsible, but we have to accept that it is unlikely.
Click to expand...
BBM. Whatever happened on that day was unlikely. For example, how many foster parents cover up after a child has an accident and dies (one of the going theories)?
 
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