Hatfield
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My feeling is Allison's attack wasn't burglary gone wrong; rather she was what the attacker was after.... I wonder what it was about the crime scene that led LE to say her attacker was someone who initially is not violent, but could become so (paraphrasing)...
JMO
I agree and after I read most of this thread for the first time, I am leaning to someone she knew and here is why.
-The Tiffany bracelet is a very personal object
-The wrapping of the towell around her head can be indication of someone not wanting to have to face the person they just killed. If a perp has never killed someone before, the personal up close shock of it can be too much for them to handle and they felt they had to cover her face.
-The taking of the phone is again something very personal. It may have had to do with pictures or texts on her phone OR something simple like she went for the phone to dial 911 and perp grabbed the phone away before killing her. So perp knew his prints were on phone and didnt want to try to wipe it clean. Especially if blood splatter had occurred by then.
The main thing is it is a personal item that was taken.
-The Valentines day thing is very personal.
-The security system thing did not bother the perp. Which indicates they either knew her routine and knew it was not on OR they knew how to deactivate it themselves.
So from those important things there is a theme I am seeing in the clues.
The theme is "Personal".
IMO, I think the perp was someone who knew her and knew her well.