AZ - Isabel Mercedes Celis, 6, Tucson, 20 April 2012 - #12

[rosiebean]

bbm

Perpetrators of Nonfatal Child Maltreatment
More than 80 percent (83.9%) of victims were abused by at least one parent. Approximately two-fifths (40.8%) of child victims were maltreated by their mothers acting alone; another 18.8 percent were maltreated by their fathers acting alone; 16.9 percent were abused by both parents.
http://www.acf.hhs.gov/programs/cb/pubs/cm03/chapterthree.htm#perps


Perpetrator Relationship in Fatal Child Abuse
Four-fifths (79.2%) of child fatalities were caused by one or more parents. Thirty percent (29.2%) of fatalities were perpetrated by the child’s mother acting alone and one-fifth (21.9%) of child fatalities were caused by both parents.
http://www.acf.hhs.gov/programs/cb/pubs/cm10/cm10.pdf#page=87


Relationship to Victim & Gender of Perpetrator of Fatal Child Abuse
The overwhelming majority of perpetrators of child maltreatment deaths are biological parents, especially mothers. National statistics report that about 78% of fatalities were perpetrated by biological parents. Of those, 39% were committed by mothers (either alone or with a non-parent), 19% were committed by fathers (either alone or with a non-parent) and 20% were committed by mothers and fathers together.
http://www.unh.edu/ccrc/factsheet/pdf/childfat_FS6.pdf

Statistics do not take the known facts of this case into account. Given that Isabelle

 

[Prof]

Scorned Lover wants a Parent to leave the family, and be with the Lover. Parent says no, I love you with all my heart and soul, but I cannot break up my family [or perhaps the other Parent refuses to divorce?]

The scorned lover's "heart" has been crushed. In retaliation, the lover decides to steal the one thing most valuables to the Parent: Isa.

What was that oddly word statement from TPD? (paraphrasing) Everyone in Tucson is a suspect, but we also have to check if they had first or second hand knowledge.

My scenario ends with Isa being rescued from a remote Mexican village.

I would love this to be true, and maybe it is not that far off...

 

[Reannan]

This is ridiculous that we don't know which parent is staying with the children yet! :banghead: The only reason I can possibly think of to keep that a secret would be to put pressure on the banned parent. This can't be a secret for long because the kids have to go back to school, the family will be seen out and about in really just a matter of days - probably hours. I keep waffling back and forth as to which parent would be most susceptible to this sort of pressure. I am thinking Mom would be... :moo:

 

[liltexans]

I'm surprised there doesn't seem to be any local chatter yet about which parent has the boys. I checked the Find Isa FB page thinking that surely the locals would be talking, but there's nothing. No comments under the recent articles either.

 

[Prof]

when were they married? didn't someone see the marriage certificate? do we know what year?

15 years... tomorrow..


http://www.agave.cosc.pima.gov/PublicDocs/

 

[CinnamonGirl]

That remark sent my hinky-meter into ludicrous mode What could possibly be worse than your child missing, possibly kidnapped by G-d knows who, and the danger she might be in at the hands of this perp? Finances and a missing child just don't belong in the same sentence. It ain't fittin'. It just ain't fittin'. :moo:

For the Celis's it does make sense. This is what its all about in my opinion. The kindly donations from strangers for the "cause". I think in the end it will be like I said from the beginning. Isabel is in Mexico, probably disguised as a boy and living with relatives. They have many and friends in Hermosillo and Nogales and Jalisco. And I imagine they have had money issues and they decided to do this scam and get the sympathy and a full paypal account. Then they will let it die down and eventually move their family to Mexico. I have a friend that lives in Hermosillo and he said its a very nice community with very good schools. I also think LE is onto this theory as well as they have been really looking more in Mexico then in Tucson. It would have been very easy for Becky to take Isabel out and meet up with the cousin uncle JM and he could have taken into Mexico and handed her off to the relatives. The child would not need a passport or id, she is 6. As long as she is with an adult it is only the adult that needs identity. I also think this new development is that both Celis' like their booze, I also think that the boys know something, and maybe they were threatened by one of the parents to keep their mouth shut. I think maybe the boys might have said something to a friend. But I think their scam is unraveling now. I just hope it is going this way and not the other theory of one of them murdering her. She looked like a happy child that was taken care of. But then so did Casey Anthony. So guess just have to wait to see what happens. But it is odd for a case that is only 3 weeks old they have had fundraiser after fundraiser

 

[Prof]

I've just found a report in our uk media that child protection have removed the older two children from the custody of either the mother or father
Is this breaking news or old news ?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...rch-year-old-continues.html?ito=feeds-newsxml

It was breaking news last night --almost 24 hours ago

 

[katydid23]

15 years... tomorrow..


http://www.agave.cosc.pima.gov/PublicDocs/

So they got married when she was about 21 and he was about 27?

 

[AzDaisyCrazy]

I read somewhere that they have been married x 15 years.

I never saw an official document but the sign hanging in their garage says Sergio& Becky with a date in may, iirc, 1997. So 15 years this month!!

 

[joedotnet]

I read somewhere that they have been married x 15 years.

Thanks! Yes, just found it. In fact it looks to be getting close to their anniversary.

Case Number: L99330
File Date: 5/13/1997

Party Information
Party Full Name-Party Role-Name Type
SERGIO DAVID CELIS-Groom-True
REBECCA LAURA SNYDER-Bride-True

 

[Theforeigner]

I seem to find that Sergio was born in 1970 and Becky was born in 1976. Is this what everyone sees too?

Here is what I have found:

SERGIO DAVID CELIS Date of Birth: 12/1970 (according to court records)

REBECCA CELIS Date of Birth: 10/1976 (according to court records)


BUT

Sergio D Celis date of birth: 15 Oct 1976 (according to Ancestry.com records)

BUT...when reverse a last name Celis, or a first name Rebecca OR a Sergio with the DOB 15 Oct 1976 on veromi.net, there is NO Celis, NO Rebecca or NO Sergio with that DOB!?


And on Ancestry.com records (a huge paid database) there is neither a SERGIO CELIS or a REBECCA CELIS on their present address 5602 E 12th Street, Tucson, AZ...ODD!!!


And furthermore, on Ancestry.com records there is NO Rebecca Celis in AZ!

On Ancestry.com records there is only ONE address on Sergio D Celis
and that is a 1993 address ; 57xx E 12th St, Tucson, AZ, 85711-3807

But on Ancestry.com records I have a Rebecca L Snyder born 19 Oct 1976

Address: 45xx E Grant Rd, Tucson, AZ, 85712-2646
Address: 13xx E 20th St, Douglas, AZ, 85607-1521 (1996)
Address: 11xx N Catalina Ave, Tucson, AZ, 85712-4619 (1996)]
Address: 17xx N Tyndall Ave (1995)
Address: 1xx N Highland Ave (1996 1997 1998 )


ALL pretty confusing IMO.

 

[cluciano63]

We probably need a new thread soon..in case there is more news to come...

 

[gitana1]

No contact orders are usually reserved for cases of severe and ongoing child abuse.Especially sexual abuse. MOO No contact orders are used when the child/children are deemed to be endangered if they are around a parent. It is a safety issue with regard to kids.

Almost always domestic violence perps can get supervised ( and sometimes unsupervised ) visitation with their kids. MOO

Convicted murderers get supervised visits with their children all the time...MOO No contact is a big deal...MOO

It will be very interesting to see if the "no contact " parent decides to hire a lawyer to fight this...MOO

IMO it is probably a tactic by LE to get someone to spill what they know...MOO

I want to clarify. A convicted murderer can sometimes get supervised visits, but only after court hearings. Before a matter goes to court, if CPS intervenes, they can mandate that a safety plan be put in place or the child is taken into foster care. That safety plan can include no contact with another parent. Thus, if the convicted murderer who later gets supervised visits at prison, was free at some point but a suspect, he or she could have had a no contact requirement via a safety plan be made against him or her by CPS as well. That would last until an emergency hearing at which time court orders would be made.

The standard of proof in connection with CPS investigations, juvenile dependency court and family law court cases is easier than the standard of proof in connection with a criminal case. Thus, if there is evidence that a person may have committed murder, but not enough evidence for an arrest/possible conviction, CPS can step in where the criminal justice system may have no luck.

But the analogy that, since convicted murderers can have visits yet here, a parent cannot, thus there must be something very grave going on, is not quite right. I do agree that there is something very serious happening, but he no contact requirement would only last until a hearing (possibly Monday) and then the Court would determine whether or not to allow contact, possibly in a restricted setting. As long as the safety of the children can be maintained via supervision, etc., it is likely the parent who cannot now contact them, will be allowed some contact at some point, just like certain convicted murderers, domestic abusers, etc.

I hope that wasn't too confusing! I feel that I'm not explaining well today.

Well, that's very interesting. Can it mean she was married prior to Sergio? Court records has her as Rebecca Snyder when she applied for a marriage license.

On her FB, Becky has photos of her and what appears to be sister or cousin, in front of "Grandpa Snyder's grave". So it appears that the name Snyder is likely a familial one, not via her marriage or even her mother's marriage after she was born. I think that was her dad's name.

 

[gliving]

so has any connection to a name swanson been made?

I see Becky has updated her FB within the last hour adding a family photo. You can note who has shared the picture.

 

[Pensfan]

The dad was removed.
http://abcnews.go.com/US/isabel-cel...barred-contact/story?id=16334922#.T6796-3N7zI

 

[Stash777]

I just came across something interesting on the Find Isabel Celis facebook page. There's a comment at the top linking to the Isabel Celis Forum page - check out the comments under the post made by an MH. For now I'm taking it as rumor, but it could actually be some inside info on who the Celis boys are with. MOO

If I am not supposed to post this, then Mods please delete.

ETA: Okay, well I guess the link to the story above means it was not rumor.

 

[oceanblueeyes]

No doubt, never having suffered any sort of abuse I am often too trusting of people. Truth is the abusers who are getting away with it are the ones who can hide it the best and they do indeed come from all walks of life and are people no one would ever suspect otherwise. I said before I really always try and think the best of people but it is becoming increasingly hard to do so, especially with all the social media we have nowadays that allows us to hear about all the bad crap that goes on in the world all the time so easily now. Nothing has changed, there is no real increase in crime or abuse now than there was in the 50s for example, we just hear about it more now.

As a Catholic I am all too aware of those in positions of authority who abuse that trust and power.

Hi PAXI and everyone!

Unfortunately, I am an abuse survivor both in my childhood and with my first marriage. However; I do trust people unless they give me a reason or a gut feeling not to and it hasnt left me jaded nor have I felt let down by trusting the ones I have. I have the common sense to know that just because my abusers were males doesnt mean every male is an abuser. In fact I have met a lot of men in my life I trust, admire, and respect, way more than I do some females. My past doesnt make me automatically assume the worst in a male.

I am just coming on line and havent read all the posts yet. Have we learned which parent has the 'no contact' order?

Imo, if LE has discovered during their investigation any criminal act concerning Becky or Sergio they would have arrested them for those acts. Especially this LE team who seems very hard nosed anyway and seem to be itching to arrest someone connected to this case. They certainly wouldnt let anything pass because if it ever leaked that they turned their heads away from some unlawful activity concerning one of these parents.......heads would roll, imo.

So, imo, the reason is not because one of them was breaking any criminal laws. Such as sexual abuse, domestic violence or drugs.. etc.

I did read on line just a few minutes ago if one of the parents is emotionally unfit because of a situation that is being experienced in the home CPS can immediately separate that emotionally unfit parent from the children. It also said CPS can do an immediate intervention if this is the case and will have a case manager assigned to the case that will work with both parents and will assess the case and will reassess the parent with the no contact order to see if they become emotionally fit to be in the home with the children.

I will try to find the link again in a few after I try to catch up.

IMO

 

[cluciano63]

Okay, so it IS Dad who is barred from seeing the boys...

IMO, not due to any emotional issues...that would not make it impossible for him to remain in contact with his children...this sounds more serious to me. JMO

 

[galiuro]

Sergio went to elementary school with my brother which would make the1970 birthdate spot on...

 

[Jayarre]

http://abcnews.go.com/US/isabel-cel...barred-contact/story?id=16334922#.T67_g-hYv55

Isabel Celis: Missing Tucson Girl's Father Barred From Contact With Her Brothers

The father of missing Tucson 6-year-old Isabel Celis has been told by authorities he cannot have contact with the girl's two older brothers, who are now in the custody of their mother Rebecca, ABC News has learned.

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