AZ - Isabel Mercedes Celis, 6, Tucson, 20 April 2012 - #15

[No Stone Unturned]

Okay, I am waaaay behind and have a couple more pages to catch up, but.....

I will preface this by saying I am not married to this theory, but I find it has merit and I am currently doing some digging to verify family relationships.

The Fast and Furious theory is not related to drug cartels. It was a botched US sting and it is believed that several gun runners who were caught became informants.

There is a possible familial connection between SC and a few of the higher profile people currently awaiting trial.

The Monday after Isa went missing, two of the defendants changed their pleas from "guilty" to "not guilty".

I think it is plausible that if Sergio was indeed part of this gun cartel and turned informant on his own family (possibly), then Isa may be being held pending Sergio's 'revised' testimony. I found it awfully strange the timing of the plea change and adding that with possible family ties, odd (IMO) behavior and the NCO, make me think LE also knows of Sergio's involvement and that was the catalyst for contacting CPS.

In summary, I do not think this is drug, or drug cartel related, nor do I think Isa was taken as payment for a debt.

I sort of feel like the people who are pooh pooing the cartel thing are stuck on one scenario of SC getting in debt to some drug kingpin. Yet many of us who are looking into a 'cartel' scenario for merit are looking at a completely different set of possibilities.

Again, it's all MOO, and only one theory I am entertaining but I wanted to make sure everyone understood what exactly the Fast and Furious scenario entailed.

thanks


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

This was easier than me trying to tell you about FF and this case.

 

[johnQpublic]

Anyone have any special requests?

Actually, I take the bus straight down Craycroft, so I could film the route from TMC up to Broadway as well.

Yes I do have a request actually... while your in the back alley take a good look at the top of the cable pedistal and see if there is any sign someone used it to get over the wall or is the ped shows any signs of being broken around the seal on it. It would be the Tan cylinder on the south east corner in the alley right where it meets up with the neighbors yard.

 

[LisaB]

Thank you for saying what I am too lazy to type!

*LOL* I think the "he" in the OP's post is you, my friend.

 

[Madeleine74]

I'm not sure I understand your objection to his use of the term "sleuthing". This is Websleuths, after all.:waitasec:

Pax is the one who put the term sleuthing in quotes and I was jumping off of his post.

I was trying to determine a good definition of sleuthing and then as I started to think about it, I realized real life and fictional sleuthers (okay Sherlock Holmes immediately came to mind in the fictional category) have access to the case information!

They follow up and amass more information specific to the case they are trying to crack and narrow in their focus as they get more. Then I got to thinking about what kinds of information they would have access to.

And then I realized that we have none of that and all we have to work with are some MSM articles, tiny bits of information which doesn't amount to nearly the volume that LE has by now. So upon being urged to do the research and sleuth things more, I'm not quite sure how to accomplish that without access to more case information than the paltry bits released.

 

[PAXIMUS]

Madeleine74 I have no theory and I am not trying to be rude in spite of what it may look like but I cannot sit and do everyone's research for them, I and a few others THREW OUT SOME IDEAS for a COMMUNITY THAT IS MADE UP MOSTLY OF SLEUTHERS who I expected would be ABLE TO USE THEIR SKILLS to take those IDEAS and RUN WITH THEM and see if THERE IS ANYTHING THERE.

That is ALL I DID.


I guess it was a mistake.

 

[galiuro]

I myself have not known Sergio personally...my brother grew up with him, 'hung out' with him in elementary school and he is having a very hard time believing his schoolyard buddy would have anything to do with first, harming his little girl and second, messing with cartels/gunrunners. Not the Sergio he remembers...

I don't know what to think of any of Sergio's statements or the 911 call. I do know that when I first heard of the case, the bit about the screen somehow bothered me, it spoke of some kind of setup rather than a straightforward abduction. The fact that Becky seems to STILL be sticking by Sergio...I want to think she knows more about her own husband than all of us do. But sigh, heck she could be in some sort of denial too.

 

[bwilson]

Grab me a burger at 5 Guys? No onion, please and thank you.
J/K. Filming this for us would be amazing. I think EVERYONE would appreciate it.

Lol. I haven't been there yet so I might just get a burger for myself too. Yum. But seriously, I will try and video the area, especially the back alley/gate/wall tomorrow. If I get stopped and asked what I'm doing there, I'm gonna say it's for WS!

 

[bwilson]

Yes I do have a request actually... while your in the back alley take a good look at the top of the cable pedistal and see if there is any sign someone used it to get over the wall or is the ped shows any signs of being broken around the seal on it. It would be the Tan cylinder on the south east corner in the alley right where it meets up with the neighbors yard.

I'll take pics of it too

 

[nobodynoz]

He indicates on his social media and dating profiles that he is Isabel's uncle.

A man went knocking on the door of the guesthouse next door on the side of the house that Isa's bedroom was on, to see if they had seen her at 8am. Later(?) LE told this neighbor that the man who had knocked previously was Isabel's uncle.

We do not know who this man may have been. Becky has a brother who has appeared in the media stating that he is Isabel's uncle, but that he was not the person who knocked on the neighbor's door, and had no idea who that might have been.

BBM

Could someone weigh in on this? Yesterday I posted a screen shot of a google map overhead, showing the Celis house and the neighbor's house. I circled in red what I thought might be the guest house. It has a door that opens on the alley, and a window adjacent to the Celis' back yard.

Someone else kindly told me that the young woman who heard the male voices at 6:30 AM was staying on the side of the neighboring house near Isa's window. So I assumed that the poster meant that what I circled couldn't be the guest house where this woman was living, because it isn't alongside Isa's window, it's alongside the Celis' back yard.

I hope you don't mind me asking once again--is the part of the neighbor's house that I've circled the guest house where the woman lives?

 

[~n/t~]

Drug cartels is the equivalent to human sex slaves trafficking theories thrown around in many of the cases we follow, imo.

I have yet to see one case solved where either one of these theories turned out to be true.

 

[Lark2]

I feel insane. Granted, I haven't been on the thread today but are you joking or are you serious? If you are serious, what the heck is going on? :what:

Yeah, it was a joke. Because that's how I feel now. Not even a mod's post can get this thread back online. Back up two pages ago and read mod's post.

 

[Eileen730]

There was an open window though.

Yes and the neighbors heard dogs barking!

I would think they would hear their own dog!

 

[AnaTeresa]

Becky Celis said that LE concentrated their search for evidence in Isa's AND the boy' room. No one has ever discussed why that would be so. I would think an organized group such as a cartel would not find it necessary to go into the boys' room if Isa was the target. I also don't think they would chance going through the window with two large dogs barking like crazy.

Sergio said the screen was removed and left in the yard. I would think a cartel would ambush the house (like a home invasion) with masks on, brandishing guns, and take the target.. why not take one or both boys? Are these pedophile cartel people?

The thing is, LE is running a parallel investigation. Of course they would search more than just Isa's room. They would search other areas where their investigation points may be significant. Could be, anything they find in that room is a red herring.

For example, say they find out a RSO was at the ball field and interacted with Isa. They would concentrate a search on this person - but it could end up that one of Isa's parents actually did it. Likewise, a cartel could have kidnapped Isa and LE still could have seen things that made them initially search in the boys' rooms. I'm not sure I'm on board with the cartel theory, but when LE is investigating all avenues, you can't take one part of the investigation as proof that one avenue is not plausible.

 

[Lava]

My first reaction to the cartel theory is a doubt that this would happen so quietly...I guess I picture a gang of masked-men barging into the home and making off with Isobel, if this were the case, and that no one in the home would have any doubt as to what occurred, or why. JMO

My first response, when this came up WAY before the local rumors came out, was that a cartel would use a home invasion type of scenario that ended in a kidnapping. But that was back when I thought SC was squeaky clean. Now, IMO, he is not, and IMO he could have actually handed over, or been forced to hand over Isabel as collateral until something was accomplished, whatever that may be. RC knows nothing of this (IMO, If this would be the case), so SC HAD to report it as a kidnapping - even though he knows what happened.


IMO IMO IMO - THEORY THEORY THEORY - IMO IMO IMO!

 

[bwilson]

BBM

Could someone weigh in on this? Yesterday I posted a screen shot of a google map overhead, showing the Celis house and the neighbor's house. I circled in red what I thought might be the guest house. It has a door that opens on the alley, and a window adjacent to the Celis' back yard.

Someone else kindly told me that the young woman who heard the male voices at 6:30 AM was staying on the side of the neighboring house near Isa's window. So I assumed that the poster meant that what I circled couldn't be the guest house where this woman was living, because it isn't alongside Isa's window, it's alongside the Celis' back yard.

I hope you don't mind me asking once again--is the part of the neighbor's house that I've circled the guest house where the woman lives?

Yes, I believe that IS the guest house where the woman lives.

 

[~n/t~]

I wish this is just a big hoax and Isabel is fine. That would be the best outcome for Isabel.

 

[LisaB]

What portion of those who are kidnapped are:

- Children under the age of 10, specifically females under the age of 10.
- Kidnapped by themselves, with no other family member being taken as well.
- Taken out of their house, out of their room, out of their beds, at some point between 11pm and 6:30am
- No contact is made by the kidnapper after the abduction

Just showing articles where it says cartels kidnap people doesn't say anything about the Isa case specifically. We know there are drug and gun cartels. We know "people" get kidnapped. We know certain areas of the country are at risk with the influx of cartel activity.

Where is the information about young children taken out of their beds in these U.S. cities by these cartel gangs?

Just to be ornery... if SC is actually involved in this sort of thing, and especially if he is a prosecution witness in this FnF thing, he'd have no reason NOT to tell LE about it. If this was the case, there would be a lot going on behind the scenes. Maybe the reason we have not seen any of the other surveillance tapes is that the game would be over if the 'nappers knew local LE was in SC's confidence. If they had contacted him, he and LE may be dealing with this and trying to recover Isabel, and do not want Becky and the boys in harms way, in case it gets ugly. Considering the changes in pleas from Guilty to Not Guilty within days of Isa's disappearance, it seems likely the condition for her return is his refusing to testify, in which case he'd have to be a fairly significant witness. Perhaps he hoped that AGREEING would be enough to get Isabel back, but they intend to hold her until AFTER the court date as insurance.

This is all based on a series of local rumors and a few too many coincidences, and is purely a fictionalized account of what could have happened. In this scenario, a "ransom demand" would not be a request for money, and nothing could speed up the process of having Isabel return home besides having the charges against the people holding her dismissed, which LE is unlikely to consider. It is also possible that LE would keep all of this information quiet.

 

[daisy7]

This thread is a mess! I've removed umpteen extraneous posts. If you guys want the thread to stay open, then get back on track now.

I don't want to shoot down any theory. The facts are scarce in this case, and I realize that leaves a lot of room for speculation. On the other hand, your theories should at least be plausible, which means you can provide links to back them up. The cartel theory, for example. Can anyone provide a link to show it is a legitimate possibility in this case? Any links to another case where a Mexican cartel abducted a young chid as a retaliatory measure against a parent? Links to show the family is actually involved in illegal activity? The same goes for any theory. If you want to move forward with a line of thinking, you must support it with factual information.

:bump:

 

[Prof]

He indicates on his social media and dating profiles that he is Isabel's uncle.

A man went knocking on the door of the guesthouse next door on the side of the house that Isa's bedroom was on, to see if they had seen her at 8am. Later(?) LE told this neighbor that the man who had knocked previously was Isabel's uncle.

We do not know who this man may have been. Becky has a brother who has appeared in the media stating that he is Isabel's uncle, but that he was not the person who knocked on the neighbor's door, and had no idea who that might have been.

I personally don't see anything wrong with him calling his cousin's niece his niece. It might be a cultural thing. There were countless FB pages connected by 1 or 2 degrees to RC with the missing poster of Isa as the profile pic. I clicked all around those first few days, and looked at the comments under those flyer pics...many were explaining they were uncles, aunts, cousins in the comments. My point is that it's just sometimes easier to say uncle than technical five word monikers. I really don't find it damning.

I am also not taking what this particular witness says as that credible. LE most likely asked her not to speak to the media, but there she was in the same week on NG. JMO

Yep, there is no evidence to suggest that this alleged uncle knocking on her door was JM at all. Did this neighbor describe this uncle? or tell NG that it was the same guy that was all over the news? No. Why not? She seemed to like to speculate about the case. Why would she not say, the guy who was all over the news on Saturday was knocking on my door? On this forum, It was just assumed that because JM stated in the afternoon that he came right over when he heard that he was there in the morning.

 

[PAXIMUS]

Just to be ornery... if SC is actually involved in this sort of thing, and especially if he is a prosecution witness in this FnF thing, he'd have no reason NOT to tell LE about it. If this was the case, there would be a lot going on behind the scenes. Maybe the reason we have not seen any of the other surveillance tapes is that the game would be over if the 'nappers knew local LE was in SC's confidence. If they had contacted him, he and LE may be dealing with this and trying to recover Isabel, and do not want Becky and the boys in harms way, in case it gets ugly. Considering the changes in pleas from Guilty to Not Guilty within days of Isa's disappearance, it seems likely the condition for her return is his refusing to testify, in which case he'd have to be a fairly significant witness. Perhaps he hoped that AGREEING would be enough to get Isabel back, but they intend to hold her until AFTER the court date as insurance.

This is all based on a series of local rumors and a few too many coincidences, and is purely a fictionalized account of what could have happened. In this scenario, a "ransom demand" would not be a request for money, and nothing could speed up the process of having Isabel return home besides having the charges against the people holding her dismissed, which LE is unlikely to consider. It is also possible that LE would keep all of this information quiet.

We have some really sharp members here, you being one of them, thanks for that.