AZ - Isabel Mercedes Celis, 6, Tucson, 20 April 2012 - #15

[AnaTeresa]

I agree. But until then I think we need clear rules, across the board with all mods, whether or not discussing the rumors brought in by locals is allowed to happen. One day we have a mod telling us locals can bring in rumors, and the next day we have a mod telling us don't talk about any of this, and linking to the same rumor rules as the first mod (this is just an example). So...either we can talk about the rumors locals bring in, or we can't. I would really like to, lol, and I think a lot of these locals have done a pretty good job.

I agree. I'm really confused by the conflicting mod statements about this.

 

[prima.facie]

Mexico searches=old news. No current "searches" in Mexico. Search yesterday was 3 miles down road from Celis house.

We have no idea what is being done in Mexico. One thing we DO know is that LE does not tell us everything.....so they could have peeps on the ground in Mexico gathering intel, searching, etc....

 

[Madeleine74]

Originally Posted by Lava
There are several ways to sleuth without needing the specific case files. We have seen it several times in different cases. I have my theories, and I have researched and tried to draw connections to those theories with plain old public information online.

I have no theories but I'd love more case facts. I don't need the files themselves, just some specific information that is more than what I know today would be helpful. But I don't think LE is going to grant my wish anytime soon.

 

[prima.facie]

Then please post the things that SUGGEST this, or I think it should be dropped.

There is lots of stuff over on thread #13 or #14....
I cannot link the specific posts because these threads are soooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo long....
But Pax has provided a lot to back up this theory....IMO.

 

[Anita Richman]

Now I am confused all over again. I thought someone in the last thread had found that JM is actually the son of the woman Becky's father married after divorcing from her mother, and is therefore Becky's step-brother and Isa's step-uncle (or "Uncle" to simplify matters). Help? Can you direct me to the post that confirms that he is Becky's cousin?

Thank you. I thought I was losing it, because I thought the same thing, Lisa!!:tyou:

 

[prima.facie]

What portion of those who are kidnapped are:

- Children under the age of 10, specifically females under the age of 10.
- Kidnapped by themselves, with no other family member being taken as well.
- Taken out of their house, out of their room, out of their beds, at some point between 11pm and 6:30am
- No contact is made by the kidnapper after the abduction

Just showing articles where it says cartels kidnap people doesn't say anything about the Isa case specifically. We know there are drug and gun cartels. We know "people" get kidnapped. We know certain areas of the country are at risk with the influx of cartel activity.

Where is the information about young children taken out of their beds in these U.S. cities by these cartel gangs?

Im so confused. Maybe because im new. But does there have to be an identical exact to the T situation in order for a theory to be used or something brought up?

 

[Anita Richman]

Hi Lisa! I know what you mean, I have tried to make that dadgum google man walk around that alley forever!! It has frustrated me to no end!

He IS frustratingly stubborn. Little bastige. :slap:

 

[LisaB]

It's funny, because this family seemed to be the least likely of any, in recent missing child/child taken in the night cases we've seen here at WS, to be involved or connected to anything criminal and yet it is being hinted that they might be more highly criminal than any of the others.
(snip)

I may be mistaken, but it was my impression that the theories being offered that included the gun running operation were suggesting that Sergio was a KEY WITNESS and that Isabel was taken to ensure he would not testify, not that he was "highly criminal". This would appear to be supported by the fact that two of the main defendants in the case changed their pleas from GUILTY to NOT GUILTY, and did so, if I am not mistaken, on the FIRST DAY THE COURTS WERE OPEN AFTER ISABEL WAS ABDUCTED. Coincidence? Sure, it could be. But there's a chance it isn't, and I'm not about to tell someone who has a well-supported theory to keep it to themselves and find myself eating crow-kebabs if it turns out that this CRAZY, INSANE, HOLLYWOODESQUE, OUTRAGEOUS theory turns out to be the truth. :rocker:

 

[abstr]

I see comments about the dogs barking. I will say that my neighbors have dogs that seem to bark 24/7 and I don't always get up in the night to see what it is about. If I did that I'd never sleep. I have had to learn to shut them out or otherwise move or battle with the neighbors. My own dog only barks when she wants to be fed. She doesn't bark constantly. If she started barking during the night I'd be wide awake in a second because something would be odd to me.
If there were neighborhood dogs that barked constantly and were always outside one might not even notice. It becomes white noise.
All JMO and own experience

 

[Theforeigner]

Originally Posted by txanmom
OMG, I just had a chilling thought. Do we know if when police took the family back for the reenactment did they carry in the beach towel before all the family members or just with the 14yo. What if 14yo saw dad carrying something wrapped in a beach towel in the middle of the night/early am and they had him reenact what he saw? I will have to go back and watch that video.

Wrapping a 6 y/o in a beach towel in an attempt to conceal a body seems very far-fetched. The average height for a 6 y/o girl is 41 inches. You'd need something larger than a beach towel to conceal a body that size.

Right, BUT... it was also stated that:

"a detective left with what looked like a comforter or a blanket of some sort."

Here is the info and link:
http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/1205/02/ijvm.01.html

The cops also came out of the house with a large towel, and they went to the trunk of the car, of the detective`s car. They pulled something out and covered it up to keep it from the media and then took it back into the child`s house.

Later, a detective left with what looked like a comforter or a blanket of some sort.
The last person to go into the house is Isabel`s older brother. There you see him going in, a little young man, white T-shirt and a cap, followed by a slew of detectives. People were in the home when the 6-year-old vanished, and they`re talking to the people who were in the home. What does it all mean? Why are they questioning this family one by one?

 

[Madeleine74]

Im so confused. Maybe because im new. But does there have to be an identical exact to the T situation in order for a theory to be used or something brought up?

Identical? I'm not sure any two cases could be identical. They could be similar. Bessie (one of the mods) above asked the same question of Pax I did about cartels taking children (specifically and only children) out of their homes, abducting them. Small children.

That would be similar to Isa's case. We know she was at home. We know she was taken out of her home sometime between 11pm and 7am the next morning. We know that no one else in her immediate family was abducted, and we know there were 2 other children in that family.

 

[Anita Richman]

Red is mine

When trying to get around thru the back alley revert back to the birdeye veiw and put some tilt on it and rotate the map around as needed by grabbing the compass... I've been able to "scope out" (on google) the property pretty well even to be able to see the cable ped on the southeast corner behind the fence which IMO be a easy way over the wall if you were not using the gate.. LOL Using the cable ped used to be my way of jumping over walls in AZ as I used to have to sneak onto peoples property several times a day to retrieve cable company digital phone equipment or put traps on for non payment. I couldn't begin to tell how many yards I have had to case my way into covertly to gain access to cable company property mounted on the exterior of the home. One thing else is there have been numerous times I have gone into a customers yard and encountered a dog and 9/10 times its fairly easy to get the animal to trust you.

:waitasec: You're starting to sound more suspicious than I was, lurking around the first few days!

 

[bessie]

For those of you questioning a mod's request for links, let me clear up a couple of things for you.

• Rumors are never considered fact. It is sometimes helpful to hear the local scuttlebut because it lends a different perspective, but it should always be taken with a grain of salt.
• Stating an unsubstantiated opinion is generally fine. Developing a theory around rumors is a different story. If you can't link it up, it serves no purpose other than to create confusion.
• Anyone who wants to pursue a theory at length bears the responsibility of taking time to do a little research so your fellow members can be confident that what you state is worthy of consideration. It's up to you whether or not you're willing to put forth the effort to draw a reasonable argument.
• Last but not least, questions about the rules and moderation should be addressed to a mod in a pm.

Thank you!

 

[FrayedKnot]

Oh Lord, my head.

Forget the pistachios, where's the Pinot?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Prof]

BBM

Could someone weigh in on this? Yesterday I posted a screen shot of a google map overhead, showing the Celis house and the neighbor's house. I circled in red what I thought might be the guest house. It has a door that opens on the alley, and a window adjacent to the Celis' back yard.

Someone else kindly told me that the young woman who heard the male voices at 6:30 AM was staying on the side of the neighboring house near Isa's window. So I assumed that the poster meant that what I circled couldn't be the guest house where this woman was living, because it isn't alongside Isa's window, it's alongside the Celis' back yard.

I hope you don't mind me asking once again--is the part of the neighbor's house that I've circled the guest house where the woman lives?

I am trying to catch up. This is the neighbor who heard the dogs' house, yes.
I will delete this post if needed.

 

[spoiledmom]

I have a question, why are people attacking each other? I believe that almost everyone posting on this thread wants to find out what happened to Isabel and why. None of us know all the facts. We are all thinking of possible scenarios with the facts that we do have. It is possible that Sergio is a murderer, child molester, drug dealer, wife beater, child abuser, gun runner, a liar and all of the above. None of these possibilities are known facts, they are theories that each person is trying to rule out. There isn't any evidence that we know of that supports one theory over another so why not allow each person to give their theory until it has been ruled out? If we had all the facts then the case would be solved. This is why we state when we are giving our opinion. If someone has all the facts please call LE immediately so we can get Isa home.

 

[bwilson]

Has anyone seen this development? Looks like Phoenix may not be the "kidnapping capital of the US" after all:
http://www.abc15.com/dpp/news/local_news/investigations/feds-to-release-phx-kidnapping-findings

 

[abstr]

Grab me a burger at 5 Guys? No onion, please and thank you.
J/K. Filming this for us would be amazing. I think EVERYONE would appreciate it.

There are Five Guys in Tuscon? I am suprised.

 

[Patty G]

Golly Gee, this is old news. It was posted on here shortly after she went missing. It was the uncle or cousin that lived with them. Does anyone know if the link is still available? I will look.

IIRC, we do not know if the cousin JM lived with the Celis'. There was lots and lots of speculation that he did, but as far as I recall, we don't know if JM was living with the Celis'.

JM is the cousin to Isa on the mother's side before JM's mother married into the M family. There was a name change for JM after his mother married into the M family.

I know this for fact as my son is dating a woman, whose father is a first cousin in the M family, and she as well as her father knows JM's mother and father.

 

[~n/t~]

I see comments about the dogs barking. I will say that my neighbors have dogs that seem to bark 24/7 and I don't always get up in the night to see what it is about. If I did that I'd never sleep. I have had to learn to shut them out or otherwise move or battle with the neighbors. My own dog only barks when she wants to be fed. She doesn't bark constantly. If she started barking during the night I'd be wide awake in a second because something would be odd to me.
If there were neighborhood dogs that barked constantly and were always outside one might not even notice. It becomes white noise.
All JMO and own experience

The neighbour said she woke to sounds of male voices and the Celis dogs barking like crazy. I'm guessing this was unusual. Loud enough to have awaken her and check the time. 6:30 am Saturday morning.