AZ - Isabel Mercedes Celis, 6, Tucson, 20 April 2012 - #19

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I don't know, but Isabel only lived in one.

Sorry, my point being that if it was just a random abduction of a little child, if there are other children in the neighborhood and their houses are much easier to access, then why the need to take Isa when others would have been so much easier. Perhaps no dogs, no big fence..etc etc etc
 
May be worth noting when we refer to "the FBI" - don't think there is a huge team of folks from the FBI - usually it is one or 2 - their main aim is to be available for federal charges and also be able to provide resources to local departments with ease. Same as US Marshalls


Nobody stated or implied that the entire Federal Bureau of Investigation is on the case. Neither did I state that the FBI and/or Marshals were in charge of the investigation.

I seriously doubt that "1 or 2" are covering dog handling AND behavior analysis AND profiling AND evidence gathering. In fact, there was a local news article that specified how many FBI agents were on the case, and while I can't remember the number it was definitely in the double digits -- 20-something, I think.

Yes, as mentioned in my post, their technology and experience are valuable in the investigation. Local departments rely on their expertise since they have much more experience and the more expensive, higher technologies for evidence gathering and processing.

Here are just a few news pieces:

ABC News: FBI Steps Up Involvement in Celis Case (video)

http://abcnews.go.com/GMA/video/missing-tucson-girl-fbi-steps-involvement-isabel-celis-16208983


FBI Behavior Analysts Called in Investigation of Missing...

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/04/25/isabel-mercedes-celis-search_n_1451102.html


FBI Dogs Find Clue in Home

http://articles.nydailynews.com/2012-04-23/news/31388516_1_overnight-search-fbi-agents-abduction


Maybe someone has the link handy for that other piece...? TIA.
 
Hello, Equine, echoing others when I say, great post!!

I have been a fan of the hoax theory if Isabele is alive, and you mentioned you abandoned it in favor of the drug debt-cartel theory because if Sergio is a drug dealer, then he wouldn't want the LE scrutiny.

What if we follow the premise that he owed a debt but it's not a drug debt (and therefore he's not a dealer)? Perhaps he obtained a loan from a loan shark and missed a payment or something, and now Isabele is being held as collateral.

How this would work: If the family thought they could raise funds through donations, then they could both get her back and pay the debt at the same time.

Of course, everyone would have had to buy into the stranger abduction theory for that to happen, and unfortunately, very few people believe it.

Just another option. Thoughts???
 
Thanks to moderator, Kimster, who has posted my "What happened to Isabel Celis?" poll on the Poll Board. If you've been following the case here at Websleuths, please vote. TIA

What happened to Isabel Celis? - Websleuths Crime Sleuthing Community


Which of the following best describes your current position on what happened to 6-year-old Isabel Celis who went missing from her home in Tuscon, AZ on April 20?

Submitted by BetteDavisEyes

I voted. Thanks, Bette!
 
Sorry, my point being that if it was just a random abduction of a little child, if there are other children in the neighborhood and their houses are much easier to access, then why the need to take Isa when others would have been so much easier. Perhaps no dogs, no big fence..etc etc etc


Good question.

I'm also a little more prone to entertain the stranger theory because they live right next to all those businesses/parking lots, although I suspect if the Celis' are not involved the person who took Isabel at least seemed to know she was there and knew where in the house she was. I don't think it is that difficult to look over their fence and the house is not that far away from it. Wonder if you could ever see into that room, hear the families voices, or see shadows with the lights on at night to know Isabel slept in that area?

I wish we had more concrete facts about the house layout, where Sergio slept (not just fell asleep), were ALL of the doors locked, does the older boy come and go often or have older friends around, and so on.
 
Hi y'all!! After reading through a couple of threads and enjoying your contributions, I thought it was time to chime in here.

I'm a latecomer to this case, even though I live in Tucson and am a veteran armchair sleuth. Classes at Pima start next Tue. :woohoo: , and getting enrolled, etc. has taken up much of my time the last few weeks.

Immediately I distrusted the "intruder through Isa's window" scenario. It seemed like amateurish staging, and TPD did say back on 04/22 that there was NO evidence of foced entry into the house (see KVOA's "complete coverage" page). Plus good ole fashioned horse sense says that the odds of someone snatching her from her bedroom under those conditions (high wall surrounding property, 3 dogs on site, in daylight, etc.) are pretty slim.

I am no fan of TPD, however I DO trust the technology, skills, competence, and professionalism of the FBI and the U.S. Marshals. Too many LE and former LE have stated off the record that Sergio has a major debt to one of the drug cartels, and frankly I believe it (where there's smoke, there's fire). Just because someone puts on a very public face does not mean that they are drug-free, honest, law-abiding, a good parent, or even sane. Many people "project" positive traits onto total strangers just because they have reproduced. I should know -- this is my childhood in a nutshell. I am the product of such parents, and everyone thought they were "pillars of the community" because they were highly functional. In reality, nothing could have been further from the truth.

BTW, just because SC can sing doesn't mean he's not abusing drugs. Smoking is only one form of administration. As for him not having the time, well if the man doesn't work (or only works PT) then that opens up a significant window of free time so keeping coaching, etc. committments is not such a big deal.

In every interview of SC and RC that I have seen, they have exhibited signs of lying. (Several years ago I was fortunate to receive a tutorial from a retired FBI agent who specialized in body language.) That impression of mine has been buttressed by specialists hired by both local and national media. Then there was the telltale interview with local media where SC had his hands completely wrapped around RC's right arm, and he remained as still as a statue so as to prohibit any spontaneous gesticulations. It was glaringly obvious! IF they had passed their lie detector tests, they both would have been screaming it from the rooftops. But we have only silence and evasiveness ("we can't talk about that").

RC has made some truly bizarre statements that just creeped me out. One was something like, "Well, we absolutely don't like being here doing this. But you know what? It doesn't matter... We are here doing it, whatever it takes to bring Isabel home." If it doesn't matter when why bring it up? When your child is missing the focus should be on her, not yourself. "Whatever it takes," right?

It is very "interesting" to me that a nurse and a surgical assistant could afford to buy a $435,000 house. The house has 3802 sq. ft., even though eyeballing it it appears to have about 2400 sq. ft. Also, it has 1.5 stories, and since we don't have attics in Tucson I'm wondering about the "half" story. Is there a fortified underground bunker, and does that account for the missing square footage, the "half" story, and the high price of the house? If SC is a drug dealer that wouldn't be farfetched. The house has been on the brink of foreclosure a couple of times, so their financial picture hasn't been great. To me that is notable because "desperate times require desperate measures."

Speaking of SC being a surg assist, why has his employer not been identified? Why haven't they come forward to show support like TMC did for RC? Why has nobody been able to find SC's state license?

There have been too many creepy things and red flags in this case to list in toto here, but they include: Cousin/Uncle Justin, Isabel reportedly sleeping in her brother's room (for protection/safety from her father?), the CPS involvement, the defensive statements by SC's sister at an inappropriate time, etc.

For about an hour I entertained the hoax theory, but that theory is mutually exclusive with SC being a drug dealer. No drug dealer is going to call LE to his home and risk the subsequent scrutiny (phone call records, e-mails, financial records, etc.) to perpetuate a hoax. It's one or the other, and I don't believe this is a hoax.

I also have not ruled out sexual abuse which culminated in some kind of incident resulting in her death, which then required manufacture of the "kidnapped" tale.

This whole thing stinks like a rotten fish and has from Day One. Something is not right here, and I have to conclude that the public has been fed a line of BS. My prediction is that LE will approach RC and she will agree to supply evidence against SC in order to take him down in exchange for her own complete or partial immunity. Only time will tell if I'm right about that one or not.

Of course, all of the above is just my opinion. Thanks for reading, and I look forward to interacting with you here!

EquineLuvr

:dance: :goodpost: :dance:

Super first post! And I agree with you!
 
Hi Time, Thanks for your warm welcome. :)

No, there is no evidence that I'm aware of that Sergio doesn't work full time (but a negative can't be proved so that's a logical fail anyway). That's why it's a question in my mind. Does SC work at all? If so, FT or PT? Whom does he work for? Why haven't they come forward to support him and the Celis family like TMC did for Becky?

The house data are posted on the Pima County Assessor's website. All of that is publicly available information. 3802 sq. ft. is a LOT, and the house sure doesn't appear to be THAT large (more like ~2400 sq. ft.). I sure would love to read the musings of the other posters on how SC and RC could afford to buy a $435,000 house!

Licensed or not, if SC works for some orthognathic/periodontic/oral surgery group, one would think that they would have come forward or at least would have been mentioned somewhere. Also it's "interesting" that the family's "close friends" didn't even know what his title is, calling him a "dental hygienist" (which is far removed from being a surg assist).
 
Hello, Equine, echoing others when I say, great post!!

I have been a fan of the hoax theory if Isabele is alive, and you mentioned you abandoned it in favor of the drug debt-cartel theory because if Sergio is a drug dealer, then he wouldn't want the LE scrutiny.

What if we follow the premise that he owed a debt but it's not a drug debt (and therefore he's not a dealer)? Perhaps he obtained a loan from a loan shark and missed a payment or something, and now Isabele is being held as collateral.

How this would work: If the family thought they could raise funds through donations, then they could both get her back and pay the debt at the same time.

Of course, everyone would have had to buy into the stranger abduction theory for that to happen, and unfortunately, very few people believe it.

Just another option. Thoughts???



Hi Lark, and thank you for the welcome. :)

You have sound reasoning there, and that scenario is certainly plausible. Still, based on the numerous LE folks who have all said pretty much the same thing RE drug-cartel debt, that is the direction I am leaning in. Then again, erroneous info can be repeated even within the LE community. Time will tell, eh? I sure hope that eventually we will all get to the bottom of this murky mess.
 
Hi Time, Thanks for your warm welcome. :)

No, there is no evidence that I'm aware of that Sergio doesn't work full time (but a negative can't be proved so that's a logical fail anyway). That's why it's a question in my mind. Does SC work at all? If so, FT or PT? Whom does he work for? Why haven't they come forward to support him and the Celis family like TMC did for Becky?

The house data are posted on the Pima County Assessor's website. All of that is publicly available information. 3802 sq. ft. is a LOT, and the house sure doesn't appear to be THAT large (more like ~2400 sq. ft.). I sure would love to read the musings of the other posters on how SC and RC could afford to buy a $435,000 house!

Licensed or not, if SC works for some orthognathic/periodontic/oral surgery group, one would think that they would have come forward or at least would have been mentioned somewhere. Also it's "interesting" that the family's "close friends" didn't even know what his title is, calling him a "dental hygienist" (which is far removed from being a surg assist).


You're welcome!

Good question on verifying if and where Sergio works. I can't find anything but this article:

http://www.tucsonnewsnow.com/story/18147319/isabels-parents-agree-to-local-tv-interview
Sergio Celis, who works as dental surgical assistant, said his office is being "extremely supportive" about when he'll return to work.

However, I've got to think the news would be all over it if he's not working or isn't a surgical assistant... maybe not.

As far as support. A small dental office is a lot different than an entire hospital. It only takes one or two people from where Becky works to get the ball rolling and they already had a foundation page, they just added a choice for Isabel when you actually go to donate. I believe the whole opera thing was some show of support for Sergio, but I did not follow it that much. It raised quite a bit of money.

I'm still a little confused about the size of the house - many others here have dug and dug on that so they can speak to it.

As far as the mortgage - yes, it seems huge to me and we live in a state where houses are far higher than most other states. Plus, there would have to be money down at a time they seemed even more lacking? And, cars have to be one of the biggest costs of all if you borrow on them (low interest, but higher insurance - gas, etc.). So I don't know, many people are basically living beyond their means! If they are lucky they end up being able to float it all till it calms down or else it comes crashing down on them at some point.
 
Oh, and, not sure anyone else has said this but SC's friend Joe has a connection to RC's workplace ... his GF works there also.
 
....Isnt it amazing how if SC & RC would just talk and answer some questions and address some rumours, even thru an attorney, how so many of these little details (that would not screw up a case) could be answered?

19 threads, zillions of posts.....same questions being asked over and over and over.....same guesses, assumptions, theories, etc being made over and over...

And all it would take is a good interviewer and the two of them to clear up a crap load of questions. Even LE has encouraged them to speak to the media.

19 threads in and we are again bringing up.........did he really even work and if so, where? lol Simple question he could answer...amongst others.

This case (like so many) is like fashion....eventually a question will be resurrected and tossed around again....then on to the next repeated queries....

Over a month now and we still have no answers about ANYTHING....even the little things that would not hinder the integrity of a case....

....just random thoughts as i lurk....lol...carry on :giggle:
 
Hi Lark, and thank you for the welcome. :)

You have sound reasoning there, and that scenario is certainly plausible. Still, based on the numerous LE folks who have all said pretty much the same thing RE drug-cartel debt, that is the direction I am leaning in. Then again, erroneous info can be repeated even within the LE community. Time will tell, eh? I sure hope that eventually we will all get to the bottom of this murky mess.

Can you clarify who all is in the "LE community" and how this info is getting around? How widespread is the talk and is it from various sources? I only really know someone to be claiming to be connected to the wife of some LE was talking? But I haven't followed it close because it is verifiable enough for me.
 
Can you clarify who all is in the "LE community" and how this info is getting around? How widespread is the talk and is it from various sources? I only really know someone to be claiming to be connected to the wife of some LE was talking? But I haven't followed it close because it is verifiable enough for me.

I have seen 3 different people talking online about LE telling them things, and yes I know they are different people, unfortunately I can't tell you where because those places aren't allowed here. But, they are out there...now, whether they are true or not...?
 
So...no yellow ribbons means exactly what??? That neither the parents nor Tucson care that Isa comes back?

Since it is apparently a big deal to some that Isa remain in people's minds it seems to me that the posters with her PICTURE on it are more important than ribbons. And those posters are still EVERYWHERE, at least on my end of town.Admittedly I work very close to her home but I live farther to the north and still see the posters up there...

Yep, still a lot of fliers hanging up on my side of town, too. Most of the ones I put up are still hanging on, in spite of all the wind we had previously.

Yellow ribbons are usually reserved for times when we are waiting for soldiers coming home from a war, although I wouldn't mind putting up some purple ribbons for Isa. I guess I'm with you--I don't see what having ribbons vs not having ribbons means.
 
I have seen 3 different people talking online about LE telling them things, and yes I know they are different people, unfortunately I can't tell you where because those places aren't allowed here. But, they are out there...now, whether they are true or not...?

how do we know they are different? i post on several forums and never use the same screen name anywhere i go....
 
how do we know they are different? i post on several forums and never use the same screen name anywhere i go....

It doesn't have to do with the screen name, but what was said.
 
Yep, still a lot of fliers hanging up on my side of town, too. Most of the ones I put up are still hanging on, in spite of all the wind we had previously.

Yellow ribbons are usually reserved for times when we are waiting for soldiers coming home from a war, although I wouldn't mind putting up some purple ribbons for Isa. I guess I'm with you--I don't see what having ribbons vs not having ribbons means.


I think someone just asked if there were yellow ribbons up, but didn't make an accusation that it meant anything. Purple ones would be nice though.
 
Hi Time, Thanks for your warm welcome. :)

No, there is no evidence that I'm aware of that Sergio doesn't work full time (but a negative can't be proved so that's a logical fail anyway). That's why it's a question in my mind. Does SC work at all? If so, FT or PT? Whom does he work for? Why haven't they come forward to support him and the Celis family like TMC did for Becky?

The house data are posted on the Pima County Assessor's website. All of that is publicly available information. 3802 sq. ft. is a LOT, and the house sure doesn't appear to be THAT large (more like ~2400 sq. ft.). I sure would love to read the musings of the other posters on how SC and RC could afford to buy a $435,000 house!

Licensed or not, if SC works for some orthognathic/periodontic/oral surgery group, one would think that they would have come forward or at least would have been mentioned somewhere. Also it's "interesting" that the family's "close friends" didn't even know what his title is, calling him a "dental hygienist" (which is far removed from being a surg assist).

Welcome!

With the reporters all over that area I think if SC did not work it would have been revealed by now.

I can understand how his employer is not coming forward in the media. All they would have to do is look at how awful Sergio's friend was treated on Nancy Grace's show just because he dared to say he was a close friend of Sergio's.

There has been a lot of confusion about their home and if it is listed properly. Some posters have even suggested that the Celis' need to go to the county tax assessors office and get it straightened out.

I dont know about AZ but RNs here and Dental Assistants for Oral Surgeons are able to afford an even larger home than the Celis family lives in.
 
It doesn't have to do with the screen name, but what was said.

im not trying to challenge you....sorry if it comes off that way :/

im just curious how one could know that anonymous posts on various forums could be different people....or the same person...
 
"... I sure would love to read the musings of the other posters on how SC and RC could afford to buy a $435,000 house! ..."

Respectfully <snipped> I haven't seen much discussion about the family's income, assets, spending habits, etc. here at Websleuths, but there are plenty of musings about these issues on other crime-related blogs. Please don't ask for links, dear peeps, because I doubt that any of the sites are permitted here ;)

As for me, I don't discuss money-related topics with friends or relatives, so I'm not about to speculate about or judge people based on their earnings or how they choose to spend their hard-earned dollars. :moo:
 
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