AZ - Isabel Mercedes Celis, 6, Tucson, 20 April 2012 - # 6

[dimples37398]

So the father forgets to bring his daughter home from the park that night, and the next morning, when he looks in the bed and realizes it, he decides to call 911 ? So when did he realize that he messed up? That morning?

The mom wakes dad up to give him a kiss goodbye, tell him to be sure to wake Isa up for her game that morning. That jars his memory, he thinks OH NO, he gets up, would even have time to ride over to the park, then is thinking up a way to try and save his marriage, family, job, reputation..comes back and fixes the screen/window, then calls 911 and the mom.

 

[LisaB]

Good post! But I think they have a short list of people very close to Isabelle that they are looking at, for all reasons you stated and more...

• Dogs get a hit in the house
• Family initially stays silent - no plea, etc. - even though LE never told them to avoid media
• LE gets another search warrant
• Dogs barking in a confined area at 6:30 a.m., heard by neighbor, along with men's voices
• LE checking landfill after learning garbage was picked at home that morning
• Small window makes it seem unlikely that this was the point of entry/exit
• Police expliclity stating over and over that everyone remains a person of interest, even one week later (includes parents)
• Uncle on scene at once, querying neighbor about what she saw (even if the query began with "Have you seen Isabelle?...")

MOO.

We don't know for sure WHICH dogs got a hit in the house
The family did not want to become the focus of our attention
LE got a warrant so as to do things "by the book"
Dogs could have been barking at trash collectors talking
Nothing found at landfill
Small window not Isabel's, Her window was a fire exit window, large enough for a firefighter in full gear to make entry.
Police often say everyone is a suspect
Uncle not even an uncle. Self-appointed family spokesman who bungled the initial statement.

It does occur to me that if the family was complicit, there would be no need to "sneak" Isabel out of the house past dogs and peole, they could just put her in the car at 6:30. The neighbor's dog heard them and barked. Their dogs may have barked because the neighbor's dog did. MOO

 

[scout35]

We don't even know if they took 2 separate cars.

Rumors get started if people start taking speculation as fact. I'm not saying this is what's happening but we should be mindful of it!

 

[Eclipse33]

"Friends said the last time they saw Isabel was last Friday night. She was at the ball park with her family, watching her brother play baseball. Friends said the game started late, and that is probably why Isabel went to bed so late that night.

Family members said they put Isabel to bed at 11 PM on Friday night. That was the last time they saw her."

http://www.tucsonnewsnow.com/story/17728195/candlelight-vigil-held-for-missing-6-year-old-girl

I don't like that this says 'family members said they put Isabel to bed..." It's hinky for one in the wording. I also think it's hinky b/c of the uncle/cousin crap that is going on. If he identified himself as her uncle and truly isn't- that is odd in itself. I call myself 'Auntie' to a few of my friends' children, but if I was being interviewed by the police or media, I would say I'm a friend of the family unless I was actually blood related! But if he is a cousin, he could still be considered a 'family member' and therefore could have been the one to put Isa to bed and be the last one to see her alive! Plus with the local person saying that the family/friends didn't like that he took it upon himself to be their spokeperson...plus he didn't seem overly concerned....rather nonchalant actually! This whole case just reeks of rotten fish. I hope that Isa is found soon...alive and well!

 

[ehough22]

Occum's Razor, I think. Make the fewest assumptions and and offer the most probable explanation.

Isabel was seen at the ball field. Therefore, she was probably not left at the ball field.

Isabel disappeared from her house. Therefore, someone in the house did something to her, or someone broke into the house.

Isabel's screen was tampered with. Therefore, someone either tampered with the window to attempt to gain entry to the house, or someone staged it to look that way.

There were dog hits of some sort in the house. Therefore, Isabel was either killed in the house, or the other dogs had some sort of hit in the house leading to another person, item, or clue.

If we look at what we know, these convoluted theories involving the ball park or parents leaving the child or staging some sort of kidnapping after not realizing your child was missing for a night simply do not make sense. Most of the time, these cases are fairly simple, whether the crime was committed by a family member, friend, or stranger. If you're having to build assumptions on assumptions to get to the theory of the case, it's probably not a viable theory.

BBM- I agree with everything else, but can we really say Isabel disappeared from the house? I understand what you're saying about the simplest answer, but I am just not comfortable saying that she disappeared from her house. We simply don't know that she returned that night. To use the same logic, we cannot assume that she did come home. I guess the most logical assumption is that she did, but we are only basing that on the parents' words. If the parents are responsible, then we do not know that she did come home. Circular logic, I guess...if the parents are responsible, we must discount what they say (and therefore cannot say Isabel came home). If the parents are not responsible, then we can assume she did come home. I think we cannot necessarily count on anything a POI says to be true, which means we have to look to LE. LE has refused to say who saw her last, who put her to bed, and if the parents took a polygraph...so we do not know, officially, if she came home.

Regarding the brothers- if they came home with the mom, and Isabel and the dad stayed later, they could easily have been elsewhere when dad came home. I don't think they would have necessarily noticed, though I do not believe in the accidentally left behind theory.

 

[AnaTeresa]

But, with all due respect..if we want SIMPLE.. then isn't it MORE simple to take a child from a park than to climb into a window of a fenced in house with dogs and four other people in the house?
Just sayin'.

And, to be honest... I actually DO think the parents or a relative have something to do with the disappearance, because that is THE simplest answer for me, but I don't want to go in that direction first if I don't have to!

But you have to look at the entirety of the circumstances. Sure, it would be simplest for a perp to take a child from a park, rather than a home. But that falls apart with the parents not immediately searching, reporting, and then staging some sort of kidnapping, with siblings corroborating. Even if the parents did something and wanted to stage the kidnapping, it would be easier to do so with Isabel going missing from the park, not her bed.

Then, when you take into account other cases that have involved a perp stalking a home with multiple persons and dogs (Shasta Groene's case), that points us right back to the home. We have evidence via the dog hits that something likely occurred in the home. Therefore, Isabel was most likely in the home. Who took her is certainly up for debate, but the simplest explanation is certainly that she disappeared from her home. Any other explanation requires too many assumptions.

 

[katydid23]

How many older boys would notice or stop and think to find out if their sister came home with their dad who came home later than them. I know my kids, if they are watching cartoons, I could easily walk in the door and by them, to carry my 7 year old to bed, and the older two would never even notice.

I guess it just doesn't seem plausible to me for several reasons. One of the main ones is that Dad seems to really love his girl. So why wouldn't he set the search in motion to find her, instead of assuming instantly that she is dead and covering it up with a staged kidnapping?

And I don't believe the parents would have left her there in the first place. I think it was pretty late by the end of the game. She was probably whiny and clingy or even asleep at the end. But I do not believe that Mom would have just driven back home late that night without checking what was up with Isabel. Even if she thought Dad was taking her, she would have discussed it, imo. And I don't think he would have left without her either. That scenario makes no sense to me.

Maybe I am wrong, but I think someone close to the family took her in the dead of night.

 

[~n/t~]

I lived in Tucson from 2005-2008, and there was definitely enough gang activity to merit the police having a gang task force unit there. From what I heard/saw the gang violence was primarily against members of other gangs and drugs. IIRC, there were 2 gang related shootings at 2 different malls during my time there. There was a huge amount of car break-ins, although I personally attribute those more to petty thieves. We lived in one of the 'best' neighborhoods and still had a car broken into twice. There is (supposedly) a huge amount of drug running gangs from Nogales and other nearby Mexican towns.

No racial related gangs right? Mexicans versus non Mexicans?

 

[LisaB]

This theory seems a little out there to me - if I realized I left my daughter at the park, the FIRST thing I would do would be to drive back there to check. I wouldn't have been checking around the house, etc.

Maybe Isa wasn't in pj's because she fell asleep in the car on the way home.
Just a scenario!

Mom leaves the park. Goes home and to bed. Dad gets home later (possibly with the boys) and goes to bed without looking in on Isabel. Mom gets up and goes to work without checking Isabel and risking waking her. Dad wakes up at 8 and goes to wake Isabel. She is not there. He calls 911 and begins to search for her. He calls his wife and she races home. It is until several hours have passed that the "I thought YOU brought her home last night" conversation takes place and by then the search is going on and they feel they can't tell the police what they have only just figured out. OR they do tell police which is why they want video from the ballfield the evening before.

 

[AnaTeresa]

I don't know any nurses that clean the soles of their shoes unless they throw them into the washing machine. I took my hospital shoes off before entering my home. Hospital floors are filthy and an ER nurse doesn't have time to clean the soles of her shoes after every patient. The waiting line in ERs is HOURS long. The staff runs and wears running shoes!

ER nurses are exhausted after working a long shift (many times not able to have time to use the bathroom or eat lunch/dinner). Bandage tape is not thrown out with each use. Hemostats and scissors are wiped down with alcohol, but then quickly thrown in the pocket when the acuity and volume or very high and patients are dying, bleeding, or unable to breath. It would be great for everything to be perfectly sterile, but when you have to move like lightening to save lives, it doesn't always occur in the ER.

Pensfan
Verified psychiatric mental health nurse

Interesting. Perhaps it was just office protocol, but when I worked at a doctors office, all the doctors and nurses would wipe their shoes down with an alcohol towelette at the end of the day. It wasn't something done after every patient or issue, but it was something consciously done at the end of the day because of the blood/pathogen issue.

 

[gitana1]

If anyone could link me to an article or interview or anything else where someone saw her at the park Friday night, I would so very much appreciate it, then I can quit considering that

I don't have anything definitive. I looked and found a video that shows a little girl being interviewed who had played with Isabel "at a park" the day before. Interestingly, I thought the boys who are in the video afterwards, were Isabel's brothers. But a third look at the video indicates they are the brothers of the little girl who is being interviewed. One discusses her playing at the park, I think, the day before.

My guess is one of her brothers had a game and she was playing around with other kids during the game. http://gma.yahoo.com/missing-arizon...k-9s-clue-143603524--abc-news-topstories.html

I dont understand all the obsession with the Uncle here, is there some reason to believe he is a bad guy beyond him wearing a silver chain some earrings and a baseball cap, if we are to judge a person based on those things then there are a lot of bad guys around including me at times.

If there is reason to believe he is involved that is fine, I would love to hear it.

ALSO, this kidnapping has all the hallmarks of someone close to the family. It seems like they had to know which window she was behind, and they had to be okay with the 3 family dogs there at the time.

Right. I think the reasons some are considering the uncle include:

1.Someone likely had to know which room was Isabel's if she was taken from the house. To me, a likely scenario is that someone fixated on her and decided to "take" her. That someone must have been watching the family and the house or knew the home layout well and the family patterns. So, someone close.
2. The uncle has been on the news. People don't know who else is involved with this family. So, they hone in on him.
3. Many posters have been molested by uncles and view it as a viable concern in this case.
4. Some people got a hinky vibe when hearing him speak on the news.
5. Some people are concerned that he has references to bikini season and half naked women on his FB (I'm not. That points AWAY from being a pedophile to me, and is probably not abnormal for a young, single guy, although for many it seems to give them an overall "pervy" vibe).
6. He apparently has a criminal record of some kind. I don't know what that is, haven't seen it and so I don't know whether it is relevant.
7. FB posts of his indicate a move or visit to AZ around Jan. of last year.
8. Shortly after those posts, the uncle posted he loved being loved and loved being an uncle, which may indicate a new relationship with Isabel and her brothers.
9. Since Isabel is missing, it is logical to look at anything different in the family dynamic. An uncle who moved there a little over a year ago, could be that change.
10. Apparently the neighbor states the uncle came by with the dad around 8:00 a.m.. We don't know if it is this uncle but if so, it indicates he was there or very nearby.
11. Someone posted that on another site, it was indicated the uncle was not appointed the family spokesperson, took it upon himself early on to insert himself in the case with the media and that the family is annoyed by this. I will note that if true, that would raise an alarm with me. But, for now this is rumor only. I also note that we have not seen him on the news since the early days of the investigation.

 

[white rabbit]

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/headlin...r-old-girl-vanishes-from-tucson-arizona-home/

watch this video again. at 1:00, the reporter interviews a teenager ("a family friend" they say) who says "she was just a perfect little girl having fun at a party".

at a party??? what party? now...none of the adults in that house (including the uncle, if he indeed lives there) are strangers to drinking (each, SC/RC/JM have a dui on their record)...

what if...there was a party going on at the celis home when they arrived from the baseball game (or they threw a party when they got home from the baseball game)...and no one really remembers who put her to bed when? and someone at the party was the guilty party? or...an accident/something illegal happened during or after needing a cover-up???

thoughts?

 

[insatiable]

The four parks were searched because of one tip on one park. The other three parks were included in the search last night, because according to TPD they are similar to the one park they received a tip on. We might deduce that because all four have lakes, along with being similary in size, that the tip had something to do with a lake in park.

I would hope that LE searched Freedom Park on Saturday, since that was the last place Isa was spotted by anyone other than family.

I bet the tip/similarity is lake/water

 

[MvD]

No racial related gangs right? Mexicans versus non Mexicans?

I honestly have no idea... I *think* you can look at the tucson police site and view their gang unit info..although I have no idea how detailed it is.

 

[Thinkzerz]

Really? Because his FB page said he was moving to Arizona?

Oh dear.

No his Facebook did not say he was moving there. My point was that he either is visiting right now or just recently moved there. It to me means uncle can't be ruled out JMO

 

[katydid23]

The mom wakes dad up to give him a kiss goodbye, tell him to be sure to wake Isa up for her game that morning. That jars his memory, he thinks OH NO, he gets up, would even have time to ride over to the park, then is thinking up a way to try and save his marriage, family, job, reputation..comes back and fixes the screen/window, then calls 911 and the mom.

Ok, so when his wife mentions ISabel, thats when he first realizes he never brought her home ? So does that mean he never pretended the night before to carry her in or anything? So neither of the parents ever peeked into her room that evening at all? Never thought to help her get tucked in or anything? Hmmmm.....seems odd, imo.

 

[Isabelle]

Anyone else think it's time to get Equusearch involved?

 

[CharlestonGal]

LE has said, "family members" put Isabelle to bed at 11:00 pm. Members. Plural. That means at least two family members have to be lying if Isabelle was indeed forgotten at the park that night.

Beyond that, if she was left at the park that night, someone would know it. No child is going to sit there by herself in the dark after they've turned off the ballfield lights and say absolutely nothing as the last people leave. She would have presented herself to somebody. Now, one could conjecture that a predator just happened to be in the vicinity and lucked out that the parents forgot their 6 year old daughter and that the predator then took off with her (without anyone noticing and without Isabelle being upset about it). That scenario is very, very implausible.

 

[cluciano63]

Well, it is odd that no one is saying who put her to bed.

 

[ehough22]

The mom wakes dad up to give him a kiss goodbye, tell him to be sure to wake Isa up for her game that morning. That jars his memory, he thinks OH NO, he gets up, would even have time to ride over to the park, then is thinking up a way to try and save his marriage, family, job, reputation..comes back and fixes the screen/window, then calls 911 and the mom.

Assuming the mom left around 7:30, that gives him half an hour to get to the park, do a not very thorough search of the park, and get back to "find her missing". He'd be better off spending that time at the park actually looking for his daughter instead of concocting a kidnapping scheme. He'd also have to hope none of the other 2 kids in the house woke up to find him gone.

It's just too many "IF"s for me.