AZ - Isabel Mercedes Celis, 6, Tucson, 20 April 2012 - # 6

[liltexans]

A lot of it depends on how things are framed. Opinions are one thing, but no opinion can be presented as fact. This is where some people (not pointing fingers) have difficulty.
There's been quite a bit of that here unfortunately IMO. It's habit when there are few public facts. If something is marked as your opinion then you're good to go but people also have the right to disagree. If something is blatently rude then flag it. One develops a thick skin quickly around here. take a breather, do whatever you have to do....because tempers do get heated at times its best to walk away. The mods do what they can to keep open inquery open regardless of how popular it is, but it can be hard to do when this is a victim-friendly forum at the same time.

Sent from my SGH-T989 using Tapatalk 2

bbm

Ain't that the truth! I think I've developed a suit of armor from posting in the Lisa Irwin Forum.

But it's true, hit the red triangle alert button if a post is offensive.

 

[Patty G]

After listening to most of the press conferences, the family's news conference, reading the posts, and everything the neighbor stated, my thoughts about what happened to Isa have not changed.

IMO, it is not a stranger abduction. Whatever happened, they know the family and their routine, layout of the house, dogs, and so on.

Where is Isa?

 

[gitana1]

I understand questioning and discussing, but calling another persons input ridiculous, or being judgmental to another posters input, doesn't leave one with a very welcoming appreciated feeling. Just not much to discuss without speculation, whether it is a likely scenario or maybe doesn't seem so likely to others.

JMO

Your opinions are valuable. Everyone's opinions are! And speculation is fine. But every single theory is going to be judged. That's what we do here. If we can't judge each others' theories then it would be as quiet in here as if we could not speculate. Every single one of my theories is judged. We banter them back and forth, take em' apart and put them back together again, to see what sticks. But no theory or idea is stupid!

I think it is great that posters have all sorts of different thoughts, no matter how far fetched some may think them to be, because that's how the truth is eventually uncovered in life.

 

[PAXIMUS]

What is the gang presence in Tucson?

It is not that bad, Tucson has a very small African American population so the crips and bloods are not really a problem. There is a good representation of Mexican Mafia and M16 hispanic gangs here but not really on the side of town she is from, in the middle of Tucson there is a small ONE SQUARE MILE CITY called South Tucson, it is a city by itself with its own police dept, mayor, city council etc, its pretty much in the middle/west of Tucson, Tucson surrounds it, it is only one square mile in size and it is 95% hispanic, a lot of drugs and gang activity there but I have never had a problem down there and I know a lot of old school very large hispanic families who live there that are very good, festive people who like to BBQ and have parties all the time so I spend some time down there, while you can see the effects of drugs, prostitution and gangs there I have never felt threatened in my time down there in that "hood".

Beyond that there really isnt a big gang problem here but sure there are gangs.

 

[gitana1]

After listening to most of the press conferences, the family's news conference, reading the posts, and everything the neighbor stated, my thoughts about what happened to Isa have not changed.

IMO, it is not a stranger abduction. Whatever happened, they know the family and their routine, layout of the house, dogs, and so on.

Where is Isa?

I think I agree. There was that monster in the Groene case who watched the house with night vision goggles at night and then busted in despite the dogs, but he had weapons and likely assumed he could kill the dogs if need be (after all, he killed the whole family). Also, I think that kind of scenario is very, very rare.

I agree that it must have been someone who knew that house well, the dogs, and the family. Now who could that be?

I hope the FBI and local LE are really painting an excellent picture of everyone in that family's life - every relative, parents of their kids' friends, coaches, assistant coaches, babysitters, friends of the parents, neighbors and so on. And I hope they question every last one of them and find out exactly where everyone was that night.

 

[keeponsearching]

I thought we knew what she had on, "Blue tank top, navy blue basketball shorts." for bed. My children wear whatever is comfy, besides footy pjs in the winter, its mostly comfy shorts and a t shirt.
https://www.findthemissing.org/en/cases/show/14564

 

[katydid23]

After listening to most of the press conferences, the family's news conference, reading the posts, and everything the neighbor stated, my thoughts about what happened to Isa have not changed.

IMO, it is not a stranger abduction. Whatever happened, they know the family and their routine, layout of the house, dogs, and so on.

Where is Isa?

I agree that it is most likely a family member or family friend. However, I also believe that a very experienced perp could have followed the family home from the ball park. Some serial kidnappers are very bold and spontaneous and determined.

 

[CarrieBean]

This happens every time there are so little facts to discuss. Frustration sets in. But I'm pretty sure we're all here for the same reason

 

[liz b.]

1. LE said that "family members " put Isabel to bed. LE did not say that "her parents" put her to bed.

2. There has been no confirmation that mom saw Isabel at all that morning. Or that evening.

3. There has been no confirmation about what time mom left for work that morning.

4. The only statement about Isabel's mother that morning was made by a co-worker,who said that she was in work "very early " that morning.

5. LE said at the beginning of the case that they could not rule out a custody dispute.

Given these "factoids" I wonder if both parents were actually living together in the home when Isabel vanished ? Maybe they did not want to discuss this, because they feel that it would take the focus from finding Isabel ?

Has anyone read that LE says both parents were actually living together full time when Isabel vanished ?

 

[CarrieBean]

Have a good weekend everyone. Hopefully we'll hear some news really soon. I'm off to play chauffeur and then settle in with some nice cold beers. :seeya:

 

[ehough22]

I feel like we haven't discussed these lake searches very much. Any theories? Just a normal course of investigation, or something more?

I know they were acting on a tip. I wonder what kind of tip would lead them to water, but not a specific body of water? Did a POI show up wet? Mud on the tires? Hmmm. I would think perhaps they found wet clothing in the home, but I wouldn't call that a tip.

 

[BetteDavisEyes]

I agree that it is most likely a family member or family friend. However, I also believe that a very experienced perp could have followed the family home from the ball park. Some serial kidnappers are very bold and spontaneous and determined.

Or, as I suggested earlier this week, someone who saw the Celis family at the ballpark, knew where they lived, went to their house, and hid inside until they returned home. If the individual was a regular visitor to the home, the dogs wouldn't have made a fuss and would have settled down by the time the family returned from the ballgame. :moo:

 

[BetteDavisEyes]

1. LE said that "family members " put Isabel to bed. LE did not say that "her parents" put her to bed.

2. There has been no confirmation that mom saw Isabel at all that morning. Or that evening.

3. There has been no confirmation about what time mom left for work that morning.

4. The only statement about Isabel's mother that morning was made by a co-worker,who said that she was in work "very early " that morning.

5. LE said at the beginning of the case that they could not rule out a custody dispute.

Given these "factoids" I wonder if both parents were actually living together in the home when Isabel vanished ? Maybe they did not want to discuss this, because they feel that it would take the focus from finding Isabel ?

Has anyone read that LE says both parents were actually living together full time when Isabel vanished ?

There was a very odd statement about "both parents living together in the home" so that "the disappearance was not linked to a custody issue." I thought it sounded strange at the time, and then others here mentioned that they, too, wondered what the remark meant.

 

[LisaB]

But why the heck would the team coach, who has to stay late, be the parent in charge of a 6 yr old girl? Wouldn't the team coach be with the older boys, and not his little daughter?

If the dad had to bring in the bases that night, I am going to guess his 14 yr old was expected to help him do those chores. A tired 6 yr old girl would have been sent home with Mom, imo.

That makes perfect sense, and would explain WHY dad thought mom took Isabel with her. But if Isabel was whining or seemed wide awake on the way to the car, and mom just wanted to get home to bed, she may have agreed to let Isa stay. Dad, thinking the way you are, never even considered the possibility. Mom told her to go right back to the field and stay with her brothers, but she never made it that far.

Dad (in this scenario) assumed mom DID take her home, as planned.

 

[RachelMarie]

I think sometimes it is easier to blame the parents because they are the closest and in the back of our minds we can't believe that some unknown person could have pulled it off when it comes to house abductions, this is just my opinion. On the other side of that lately there have been so many parents that have hurt their kids but in those cases it was almost crystal clear, meaning there was something prior that made it obvious. With Caylee, CA had a history of partying and leaving her alone. With Lisa, DB admitted to being drunk and they were involved in custody issues. In this case though, as of yet, there is nothing other than previous DUI charges that blemish these parents. There have not been any previous reports of abuse, in fact they seem regularly involved in the childrens lives. Now this is not to say that even those that appear perfect do bad things, it just seems like in this case what they say about her disappearing from the house is true whether they were involved or not, she did make it home from the ball field. IMO
Also as far as LE not telling MSM who put her to bed, what she was wearing etc. I think they have also learned from previous cases that sometimes less is more and if they also suspect someone in the home or close to the family members then they will keep a lid on those details to see who gets squirmy. Maybe see if the parents start fighting and one tells a little more than the other. Maybe wait and see if someone like the uncle mentions something she had on that was not released to the public. Anything is a possability and everyone involved and following knows that and I think at this point it is just a watch and wait game to see who comes forward, who slips up. I am sure LE has an "idea" of what they think happened they just have to be careful about appraoching it because a whole case can get blown with one mis-step. Again just my opinion here and I am thinking out loud

 

[Prof]

We are not ASSUMING that she was last seen in shorts and a shirt at the park. We have confirmation of that, however. Other people saw her. But who put her to bed? Nobody. What was she wearing when she went to bed? Nobody knows. The person who put her to bed should know what PJs she had on. But if she was never PUT to bed, through a terrible oversight, nobody would claim to have put her to bed, they would each have thought that the other one did it. I think the "suspicion" is based on the last verified sighting being at the park and the lack of clear information on who put her to bed and what she was wearing at that time.

"according to Tucson Police Department spokeswoman Sgt. Maria Hawke.

Isabel's parents put her to bed at 11 p.m. Friday night, Hawke said."

I trust the LE is doing their job on this case. They don't tell us much, so I do trust that they are being very careful in verifying what they do tell us.

http://www.kvoa.com/full-coverage/finding-isabel/
,

 

[Jezbel]

I am just going to through my opinion out there.....I am going to stay on the side of the parents for right now, I think it is highly possible that Isabel was indeed kidnapped from her bed. I don't see any reason as of yet to doubt the parents or think that they had anything to do with this.
So many children have gone missing the last few years and yes in some case the parents have been involved by trying to hide/cover their child's death. I just don't see that here. I think it's easy for us to all jump to conclusions based on past cases.

I am glad they spoke out, but if they didn't it would not have made a difference to me, like so many have said, they are pretty much dammed if they do and dammed if they don't. I am not going to pick them apart for how I think they should have acted/spoken, whether they cried enough tears, if they were real or fake etc. They are hurting, that much is obvious to me, I have no idea how I would react in this situation, but I know how I have acted in tragic situations, when my Mum passed away, I was the one who made the calls to friends and family, I made funeral arrangements, I signed the death certificates, I chose the outfits, music etc. I can't even tell you how upset I was about my Mum, I had to be the one to tell my little sisters and my big brother too, it was the hardest thing I have ever done, but I had to stay strong for them. I went on auto pilot making the calls and arrangements, picking out music and poems to be read at the service, my Dad just couldn't face any of it (My Nana, his Mum had only passed away 6 months before), so I took on that responsibility. I guess what I am saying is, if you were do see me doing any of that stuff you would not have thought that my Mum had just passed, and I was most definitely devastated, she was my best friend and amazing and strong women who died too young, I cannot talk about her still without crying.

Back on topic (sorry) I am also okay with the police not confirming or denying things and not passing on much info to the media. We have all seen what happens when too much info is released. I applaud them for bringing in the BAU, I think they must believe it to be a kidnapping, because I don't think a specialized unit like the BAU would come if it were thought the parents were involved. As has been referenced before the Samantha Koenig case, surveillance was not released, LE released very little info, the whole time we come to find out that her father started receiving ransom request from Sam's phone and LE were tracking this guys for weeks.

So until there is something to prove otherwise, I am comfortable saying I believe the parents story and just hope with everything that Isa is found safe and very very soon.

Again JMO

 

[Prof]

I feel like we haven't discussed these lake searches very much. Any theories? Just a normal course of investigation, or something more?

I know they were acting on a tip. I wonder what kind of tip would lead them to water, but not a specific body of water? Did a POI show up wet? Mud on the tires? Hmmm. I would think perhaps they found wet clothing in the home, but I wouldn't call that a tip.

The tip was a specific body of water. The tip was specifically for the Lakeside Park lake. The TPD discussed this in the presser at 8 am this morning.
The other three lake parks were then included TPD said, because they were similar in size and geography. That he said, is standard procedure.

http://www.kvoa.com/full-coverage/finding-isabel/

 

[katydid23]

That makes perfect sense, and would explain WHY dad thought mom took Isabel with her. But if Isabel was whining or seemed wide awake on the way to the car, and mom just wanted to get home to bed, she may have agreed to let Isa stay. Dad, thinking the way you are, never even considered the possibility. Mom told her to go right back to the field and stay with her brothers, but she never made it that far.

Dad (in this scenario) assumed mom DID take her home, as planned.

But both the parents probably have cell phones. Mom isn't going to check, late at night, if her 6 yr old makes it back to her dad? And she is not going to call Dad and tell him the little girl is on her way? That does not make sense to me in the age of cell phones. JMO

And if they didn't have cells, even more reason MOm would have made sure her little girl was safe with her dad. It was almost 11 pm. Why would Mom just walk away from her 6 yr old at the park without making sure she was with her dad?

 

[katydid23]

I think sometimes it is easier to blame the parents because they are the closest and in the back of our minds we can't believe that some unknown person could have pulled it off when it comes to house abductions, this is just my opinion. On the other side of that lately there have been so many parents that have hurt their kids but in those cases it was almost crystal clear, meaning there was something prior that made it obvious. With Caylee, CA had a history of partying and leaving her alone. With Lisa, DB admitted to being drunk and they were involved in custody issues. In this case though, as of yet, there is nothing other than previous DUI charges that blemish these parents. There have not been any previous reports of abuse, in fact they seem regularly involved in the childrens lives. Now this is not to say that even those that appear perfect do bad things, it just seems like in this case what they say about her disappearing from the house is true whether they were involved or not, she did make it home from the ball field. IMO
Also as far as LE not telling MSM who put her to bed, what she was wearing etc. I think they have also learned from previous cases that sometimes less is more and if they also suspect someone in the home or close to the family members then they will keep a lid on those details to see who gets squirmy. Maybe see if the parents start fighting and one tells a little more than the other. Maybe wait and see if someone like the uncle mentions something she had on that was not released to the public. Anything is a possability and everyone involved and following knows that and I think at this point it is just a watch and wait game to see who comes forward, who slips up. I am sure LE has an "idea" of what they think happened they just have to be careful about appraoching it because a whole case can get blown with one mis-step. Again just my opinion here and I am thinking out loud

Great Post, and :welcome: