CA CA - Barbara Thomas, 69, from Bullhead City AZ, disappeared in Mojave desert, 12 July 2019 #3

[darring21]

You're giving statistics that back up your point of view. But in this case, they don't exactly apply. We have a singular account of the last sighting of Barbara given by a person who is "statistically" most likely responsible for her disappearance.

SAR spent 10 days searching and were unable to find her. So she didn't have some sort of medical malady or mishap in a national park. LE has said there is no evidence of an abduction, they don't feel that is a possibility. So realistically what are we left with?

IMO, either Robert disappeared her or she arranged her own. I'll be open to more possibilities if more facts are made known. But it appears LE is using super glue instead of chapstick.

Your using a flawed argument, too. The most likely person to have murdered her is her husband based on statistics. We don't know that she was murdered, though. You're making that assumption then claiming statistics back you up.

The most likely reason she is dead would be due to a medical event. We don't know if she is dead, though.

The most likely reason for her to be missing is probably either choice or a car accident. That doesn't seem to fit in this instance.

Statistics don't mean anything here when they come after unproven assumptions.

 

[Medstudies]

I am going to defend Robert here.
She was the love of his life, to him she was beautiful. He still saw her attractiveness, for him it makes sense that someone would want to kidnap this beautiful woman in her bikini.
People can mock this, but it's his feelings.

Unfortunately I think that Robert, who is a victim, is indeed the one who caused her to disappear.

Okay. I am going on the assumption his “feeling about her” to be a fact. The problem is, that in many cases we do not know how one spouse truly feels about the other. (Many cases here on WS that confirms this)

MOO: throwing out the weird af (for me) things like: the beer. Bikini. Time of day. That abduction has been ruled out. SAR has failed to find her, - I’m bothered that there has been no plea from other family members for her safe recovery/return. (Googling hard for anything that says otherwise)

Where are her friends? Family members to defend her? - not to defend RT, but HER. She is the one missing. I understand that “REWARDS” don’t help, but it is still common for loved ones to offer them. Because. Desperate times. Desperate measures.

Color me skeptical. I’m still waiting for OJ to find the killer of Nicole and Ron.

And again, I would be so happy for Barbara to be found and Nicole and Ron (and all victims) to get justice.

 

[Micheline]

Ok. He still sees her as beautiful, vibrant. I can understand your comment. And I hope it’s true. But I don’t get how he caused her to disappear. By not watching out for her? Getting separated? What did I miss?

I am not allowed to express these thoughts here, this is a victim friendly board, and Robert is considered a victim.

 

[GordianKnot]

Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.

True statement.

Having said that, absence of evidence obviously does absolutely nothing to provide evidence of presence, either.

You can't prove a negative as easily as you can prove a positive.

Prove she was there vs prove that she wasn't.

There's nothing we know of that proves BT was at that location that day.

If LE had pictures of her timestamped for that day w/ recognizable landmarks placing her at that search location, I firmly believe they would: 1) release at least one of those images to the public to help anyone who may have seen her that day to recognize her and 2)publicly state that they were confident she had been in that location that day.

Instead, all we have is RT's account that she was there and then -poof!- she was gone. Abducted in her bikini and taken to Vegas, whilst clutching a beer. Or something.

We also have RT's account that LE told him his poly showed deception.

It is possible that BT was in the desert that day but at some considerable distance from the search location.

It is also possible that pictures were taken of her at a desert location that was not anywhere the search area.

I gotta' ask my man William of Occam what he thinks about that theory. I'm not sure what he'll say about that one.

JMO.

 

[wary]

If it were empty, I'd hope she'd carry it with her and throw it away in a recycling bin.

And if it was in a travel mug, I’d assume that the mug was coming back with her.

 

[helpfulcharlie]

Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.

True.

Having said that, absence of evidence obviously does absolutely nothing to provide evidence of presence, either.

You can't prove a negative as easily as you can prove a positive.

Prove she was there vs prove that she wasn't.

There's nothing we know of that proves she was at that location that day.

If LE had pictures of her timestamped for that day w/ recognizable landmarks placing her at that search location, I firmly believe they would: 1) release at least one of those images to the public to help anyone who may have seen her that day to recognize her and 2)publicly state that they were confident she had been in that location that day.

Instead, all we have is RT's account that she was there and then -poof!- she was gone.

We also have RT's account that LE told him his poly showed deception.

It is possible that BT was in the desert that day but at some considerable distance from the search location.

It is also possible that pictures were taken of her at a desert location that was not anywhere the search area.

I gotta' ask my man William of Occam what he thinks about that theory. I'm not sure what he'll say about that one.

JMO.

Agreed. Trained eyes can pinpoint an exact photo location given enough background info. And if you're out there with your lady and she's wearing a bikini top, you're not just taking photos of rocks. My opinion, if there are no photos of her, just of rocks, she wasn't there.

 

[Micheline]

Okay. I am going on the assumption you know his feeling about her to be a fact. The problem is, that in many cases we do not know how one spouse truly feels about the other. (Many cases here on WS that confirms this)

MOO: throwing out the weird af (for me) things like: the beer. Bikini. Time of day. That abduction has been ruled out. SAR has failed to find her, - I’m bothered that there has been no plea from other family members for her safe recovery/return. (Googling hard for anything that says otherwise)

Where are her friends? Family members to defend her? - not to defend RT, but HER. She is the one missing. I understand that “REWARDS” don’t help, but it is still common for loved ones to offer them. Because. Desperate times. Desperate measures.

Color me skeptical. I’m still waiting for OJ to find the killer of Nicole and Ron.

And again, I would be so happy for Barbara to be found and Nicole and Ron (and all victims) to get justice.

I am going by what I see.
I have read hundreds of posts online of people who make mockery of the kidnapping idea, how anyone would want to kidnap a 69 year old.
Well Robert says so (not that I believe him) but I can only conclude after what he said that in his eyes she was still very attractive, in his eyes so attractive someone would stop and kidnap her, or else he would not say this.
So yes I think it is a fact that he felt she was attractive in her bikini, it is what he says, just using other words.

IMO there is no need for other relatives to step forward, it is very telling this not occurring.

 

[Midwestmom2019]

There are many, many cases of SAR not finding someone in ten days, and the body is later found. The Death Valley Germans were found over a decade later. Rachel Nguyen and Joseph Orbeso were found three months after they disappeared. And there are others we still have never found. SAR does a fantastic job, but they are human and do the best they can.

Remember, absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.

LE said there is no evidence of an abduction, but that doesn't mean it is not a possibility. It just means they do not have any evidence of abduction at the time. It doesn't seem like they have evidence of murder either, otherwise there would have been an arrest. MOO.

How many disappeared hikers later found is many, many cases? The two previously linked articles about hiker deaths discussed found hikers. The articles didn’t have any data along those lines of long lost hikers being found.
Do you have a link?

 

[mrstfs]

I wonder if she had any jewelry on at the time of her disappearance? Wedding ring etc.. not because I think she was mugged, just asking for identification purposes.

 

[SDHELPS]

As I understood it, I thought the point being made was that it was an odd job for someone who lacks the required communication skills to be successful in such an occupation.
Usually someone who works in sales requires an outgoing personality, or at least good communication skills.

Someone who is not a "people person" or who is a bit of a loner would not seem to be comfortable in such a position. Imo

Thank you @MsBetsy for setting me straight. That's what I get for going down the rabbit hole earlier in the thread

 

[PaulR]

Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.

True.

Having said that, absence of evidence obviously does absolutely nothing to provide evidence of presence, either.

You can't prove a negative as easily as you can prove a positive.

Prove she was there vs prove that she wasn't.

There's nothing we know of that proves she was at that location that day.

If LE had pictures of her timestamped for that day w/ recognizable landmarks placing her at that search location, I firmly believe they would: 1) release at least one of those images to the public to help anyone who may have seen her that day to recognize her and 2)publicly state that they were confident she had been in that location that day.

What we have is RT's account that she was there and then -poof!- she was gone.

We also have RT's account that LE told him his poly showed deception.

It is possible that BT was in the desert that day but at some considerable distance from the search location.

It is also possible that pictures were taken of her at a desert location that was not anywhere the search area.

I gotta' ask my man William of Occam what he thinks about that theory. I'm not sure what he'll say about that one.

JMO.

As someone very familiar with Occam's Razor, the most likely possibility given the evidence we have is that BT got lost, as is common among hikers, even in the desert (which is not flat, see photos on page 1), and was not located within ten days which is common even with a SAR search (see the Death Valley Germans, the couple in Joshua Tree, Paul Miller, Bill Ewasko, Nita Mayo, etc.)

Of course it is possible that a 72 year old man doctored a photo enough to fool LE even though it is more difficult to do than just changing the timestamp, left no obvious trace in cell phone records/forensics/etc., managed to fool the police during the interrogation since they didn't get him to confess to a crime, etc. and given that it is ten days later and no arrest has been made, nor any hint of an arrest, news about search warrants being conducted at their home and locations they have been at recently, etc.

But as you say, let's ask William of Ockham which is more likely given the evidence we have.

 

[dbdb11]

i have spoken to LE, but they don't hand out facts, incase they end up in public forums like this. there is an investigation ongoing...

my information comes from robbie, his family, and my family.

i've been making many guesses as have many other extremely helpful people on this forum. it is very much appreciated by my family and i.

i can share this: important and relevant info has been uncovered by people on this site, which was unknown by detectives on the case... i have shared it with them.

people on here are seriously helping, at a minimum, me. so i will continue to add what i can when i can.

it is all surreal, and the timing makes every detail even that much more suspicious. it is slightly annoying when newcomers field a question which has already been addressed. earlier threads are valuable if you're serious about contributing.

there is exponentially more info in these three threads than law enforcement has shared, though i do hope and pray they are hot onto something.... i have been told this department's MO is dont talk, at all.

i've said this before as well: i'll punctuate properly when i have time to sit down on the computer, for now i am on a crappy phone. i am sorry.

Has the VI even spoken to LE and been given actual facts or is he guessing?

 

[Knox]

Your using a flawed argument, too. The most likely person to have murdered her is her husband based on statistics. We don't know that she was murdered, though. You're making that assumption then claiming statistics back you up.

The most likely reason she is dead would be due to a medical event. We don't know if she is dead, though.

The most likely reason for her to be missing is probably either choice or a car accident. That doesn't seem to fit in this instance.

Statistics don't mean anything here when they come after unproven assumptions.

I used a statistical reference in response to the poster I was replying to. I'll disagree with your last sentence, we use them all the time here at WS. The names, places and circumstances change, but many cases have the same core causes.

Obviously, I realize we don't know if she is deceased. But as MassGuy repeatedly emphasized last night, odds are Barbara is not kicking back with a beer somewhere as we speak.

 

[dbdb11]

you can hitchhike

By that definition, you can’t hike in Louisiana. We just walkin’ below sea level.

 

[PaulR]

How many disappeared hikers later found is many, many cases? The two previously linked articles about hiker deaths discussed found hikers. The articles didn’t have any data along those lines of long lost hikers being found.
Do you have a link?

Yes, you want to read Koester's book: dbS Productions - The Source of Search and Rescue Research, Publications, and Training

 

[Medstudies]

I am going by what I see.
I have read hundreds of posts online of people who make mockery of the kidnapping idea, how anyone would want to kidnap a 69 year old.
Well Robert says so (not that I believe him) but I can only conclude after what he said that in his eyes she was still very attractive, in his eyes so attractive someone would stop and kidnap her, or else he would not say this.
So yes I think it is a fact that he felt she was attractive in her bikini, it is what he says, just using other words.

IMO there is no need for other relatives to step forward, it is very telling this not occurring.

I’m going on what LE says, “no evidence that she was abducted.”

And okay. YMMV, but I’d be beating down ever news station and hiring PI’s if my relative went missing. But that’s just me.

 

[Midwestmom2019]

I used a statistical reference in response to the poster I was replying to. I'll disagree with your last sentence, we use them all the time here at WS. The names, places and circumstances change, but many cases have the same core causes.

Obviously, I realize we don't know if she is deceased. But as MassGuy repeatedly emphasized last night, odds are Barbara is not kicking back with a beer somewhere as we speak.

If we could prove the assumption, we’d probably have found the body. It’s reverse analysis.

 

[GordianKnot]

As someone very familiar with Occam's Razor, the most likely possibility given the evidence we have is that BT got lost, as is common among hikers, even in the desert (which is not flat, see photos on page 1), and was not located within ten days which is common even with a SAR search (see the Death Valley Germans, the couple in Joshua Tree, Paul Miller, Bill Ewasko, Nita Mayo, etc.)

Of course it is possible that a 72 year old man doctored a photo enough to fool LE even though it is more difficult to do than just changing the timestamp, left no obvious trace in cell phone records/forensics/etc., managed to fool the police during the interrogation since they didn't get him to confess to a crime, etc. and given that it is ten days later and no arrest has been made, nor any hint of an arrest, news about search warrants being conducted at their home and locations they have been at recently, etc.

But as you say, let's ask William of Ockham which is more likely given the evidence we have.

Great idea! I just tracked down my man Will and asked him to share his current thoughts on this case.

He reminded me we don't even know that there are/were any photos of her taken that day. He said that the most likely reason for no images of her from that day being released to the public is that none exist.

William of Occam also shared with me that he initially overwhelmingly favored the theory that she was lost in the desert; until, that is, searches yielded no sign of her whatsoever and her husband informed the public at large that his poly showed deception.

Will then tried to charge me an outrageously exorbitant consultation fee. I told him in no uncertain terms that I wasn't going to be paying him any crummy fee for something I could have told him myself.

JMO.

 

[lonetraveler]

I read the interview a couple of days ago and felt neutral but then actually listened to it just last night. He says he thinks she was taken because “she WAS wearing bikini and carrying a beer.” Like, well of COURSE that would make someone grab her. The emphasis made it “read” differently to me.

I've watched the interviews several times and my take on his statement is that he showed derision, IMO. To me at least, he absolutely did not approve of her wearing the bikini and he did not approve of her drinking beer. JMO

 

[rosesfromangels]

i have spoken to LE, but they don't hand out facts, incase they end up in public forums like this. there is an investigation ongoing...

my information comes from robbie, his family, and my family.

i've been making many guesses as have many other extremely helpful people on this forum. it is very much appreciated by my family and i.

i can share this: important and relevant info has been uncovered by people on this site, which was unknown by detectives on the case... i have shared it with them.

people on here are seriously helping, at a minimum, me. so i will continue to add what i can when i can.

it is all surreal, and the timing makes every detail even that much more suspicious. it is slightly annoying when newcomers field a question which has already been addressed. earlier threads are valuable if you're serious about contributing.

there is exponentially more info in these three threads than law enforcement has shared, though i do hope and pray they are hot onto something.... i have been told this department's MO is dont talk, at all.

i've said this before as well: i'll punctuate properly when i have time to sit down on the computer, for now i am on a crappy phone. i am sorry.

Thank you for being here.
Based on what I am reading on the thread, I hypothesize you will have answers very soon. Let’s hope I’m right.

Amateur opinion and speculation