CA CA - Bryce Laspisa, 19, Castaic, 30 Aug 2013 - #6

[dragracerz]

at 15 I rolled my dad's truck, damage on both side but not to roof, the driver side mirror never moved an inch and it was not totaled either. Guess it depends on the terrain and how it rolled.

Exactly Kev !!!

I also just spoke to my son who has been a bodyman for over 10 years and has seen numerous roll over vehicles

He said he has seen everything from high speed rollovers where people missed the on ramp to an expressway and violently rolled the vehicle causing a fatality but the vehicle looked like it was involved in a 20 mph collision and NOT rolled over

TO low speed roll overs where the roof, fenders and hood were crushed and yet no fatality.

Toyota has a pretty good roof structure and strong A pillars.

 

[dragracerz]

OK, to reiterate, LE told us the vehicle rolled multiple times, they were first on scene so knowing what we can by what we are told and seeing pictures, do we really have a case to argue with their findings ? I think not. And does it really matter ?

I think that injuries would differ even if same vehicle was used in multiple reenactments, done exactly the same way. just my opinion

Without a physical witness, EVERYTHING is speculation

I really don't think it matters and we need to move on. IMO

 

[SDHELPS]

From what I am told, there are 3 typed of SAR dogs,

1. SAR dogs that follow any human scent to find people (eg. find multiple people in an avalanche or other tragedy)

2. Bloodhounds (or other breeds) that specifically search for 1 persons scent (Bryce in this case going off scent from shoes/socks)

3. Cadaver dogs that search for bodies (scent of decomposing human remains)

1st search was with dogs in group 1, second search was with dogs from group 2
Team Amber brought a group 3 dog

Hope this helps you understand. Maybe Trackergd or sarx can elaborate on this. I am only using the information I was given and researched

Will you have dogs again next weekend or has too much time passed for them to be effective?

 

[dragracerz]

Will you have dogs again next weekend or has too much time passed for them to be effective?

That is a very good question and the answer varies depending on who you talk to.

Some say SAR dogs can be effective up to 3 months but a few say up to 6 months. My guess is that the scent diminishes daily, and doubt the 6 month effectiveness, again JMO.

This excludes Cadaver dogs which most confirm can be useful 3-6 month

I am in talks with a dog group to see if they will do a training exercise to search the area, no answer yet.
I do not think KlaasKids are bringing dogs with them (actually pretty sure they aren't)

 

[BluePoppy]

at 15 I rolled my dad's truck, damage on both side but not to roof, the driver side mirror never moved an inch and it was not totaled either. Guess it depends on the terrain and how it rolled.

I know this is not comparing apples to apples but here is a pic of an earlier model Toyota that barrel rolled on pavement and didn't have extensive damage to roof or hood

THIS IS NOT BRYCES CAR

Exactly Kev !!!

I also just spoke to my son who has been a bodyman for over 10 years and has seen numerous roll over vehicles

He said he has seen everything from high speed rollovers where people missed the on ramp to an expressway and violently rolled the vehicle causing a fatality but the vehicle looked like it was involved in a 20 mph collision and NOT rolled over

TO low speed roll overs where the roof, fenders and hood were crushed and yet no fatality.

Toyota has a pretty good roof structure and strong A pillars.

Thank you! This does help me a lot. I appreciate the patience.

 

[kevsrebla]

OK, to reiterate, LE told us the vehicle rolled multiple times, they were first on scene so knowing what we can by what we are told and seeing pictures, do we really have a case to argue with their findings ? I think not. And does it really matter ?

I think that injuries would differ even if same vehicle was used in multiple reenactments, done exactly the same way. just my opinion

Without a physical witness, EVERYTHING is speculation

I really don't think it matters and we need to move on. IMO

I think the only speculation on the severity of the accident would be BL's injuries. The small amount of blood would only mean a small cut or nose bleed. A severe roll could mean a bad head trauma. I think we are again just trying to figure out BL's state of mind when he exited the area.

 

[Quester]

@ dragracerz

SD was said to have been planning to move out of shared appt in beginning of Oct, is that true?

And, BL was said to have known that SD was moving out prior to his road trip, is that true?

TIA

 

[sreshowtime]

thank Dragz...yes I'm a little familiar with the different SAR dogs.

I guess I was confused as to why specifically that initial search was ruled out.
hmm

 

[sarx]

Doggie info:
HRD/Cadaver Dogs can be effective from shortly after death to years, decades and centuries later, DEPENDING on training.

Trailing Dogs (these use a scent article) can be effective from minutes to DAYS later, I am still waiting to see a confirmed case of months later. Weather, HEAT, humidity or lack there of, wind all affect scent greatly (as in it eats it up). Those were major factors in this case and many others. (100 degree temps and low humidity are the enemy of scent so to speak). The reality is, the only people I have seen who say they can run a 3 month to year old trail are those who are benefiting from it either financially or for fame. Both of which I feel is not good for the families of these loved ones who the are missing so very much.

The other type of "trailing" dog is the police k9 bloodhound/tracker/trailer. I put these in a separate category because they are generally trained for "hot" trails, as they are used to most often find the bad guy. They are being brought out more and more on MP cases and the issue here is an awful lot of them have not trained on aged trails (24 hrs plus) but many don't seem to think there is a difference and that's an issue, because scent changes, moves, and does all kinds of things as the hours and days go by.

Area search dogs are looking for any human in a given area. They only work well if the areas is free of all other people, otherwise they'll be finding every hiker, biker, and cop along the way.

The part below is Complete speculation
It seems like it would have been hard for them to bring an area dog in given all the LE and public in the area. I have to wonder if they brought trailing dogs in and scented off of something in the car (like the seat), which is done often. Complete speculation on my part.

 

[BluePoppy]

I think the only speculation on the severity of the accident would be BL's injuries. The small amount of blood would only mean a small cut or nose bleed. A severe roll could mean a bad head trauma. I think we are again just trying to figure out BL's state of mind when he exited the area.

Yes. Exactly where I was going with my questions on the vehicle rolls. How severe a trauma was he likely to have sustained? What was the probability? Everything is speculation for everyone involved. That is all anyone has to try to find Bryce based on what might have happened.

 

[CatFancier]

At this point, we're going to keep the McStay's out of this discussion. Almost every link to a connection is from a non-approved site. Simply having a picture from the McStay's Missing FB of a family member and Bryce is not enough of a connection at this point.

 

[lillygator]

wow I had just copied all those posts to comment on. VERY interesting,....how in the world would he have known both?

I keep going back and forth, back and forth.....now I am back to a Bryce who wanted to and did disappear......willingly.

 

[branwynbreeze]

Dragz, could you shed any light on what was the reason for Bryce to break up with his girlfriend?

 

[Woe.be.gone]

....but when the roomie spoke out, everyone was very critical, iirc........

:banghead:

I missed peeps reactions to the roomie speaking out. Yesterday was the first time I focused on the text exchange myself. Sounded weird to me - not BL's so much but the words used by the roomie in his reply. Is the roomie close to B's same age? Feeling a little bit hinkey, I remembered that BL was seen and spoken to after the time of the text exchanges so my mind eased up a bit. Still, strange and more knowledge there as to BL's mindset imo.

for reference... for those interested
34.522846° -118.588694°
a view across the upper lake from that point
http://www.campsitephotos.com/campground/Castaic-Lake/photos/Castaic-Lake-View-2
there is also view 1 looking a little more nw

ah, another angle
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-SVWpQ4gIBxE/TaOIr_xCDvI/AAAAAAAAAbI/gNsd2Hdnlnk/s1600/DSC_0117.JPG

these are not current, just reference

sreshowtime, yesterday you posted some great finds about what went on in Castaic Lake area the morning of August 30 - traffic leading into the park, etc. Also the fishermen on the lake was interesting and provided a good feel to size, land terrain and surrounds.

Is it you who asked for coordinates? Last night, after contemplating the text message from BL that read, "You save my soul", sent to his roommate, I remembered noticing a church positioned on the opposite side of tower from where the SUV went down.
Lake Hills Community Church, 33100 Lake Hughes Road, Castaic

http://www.lakehillscommunity.org/

The header on the website has pictures with an arrow. Look at pics, especially numbers five, a cross, and six, a nightime view of the lake with twinkling lights. Is this what the area looks like at night?

To reach the church*, a person would head the opposite direction from the SUV. For some reason, text message in mind, I contemplated the idea if Bryce may have headed towards the church/cross. Not being able to visualize the sight line in person, I'm not sure how obvious the church is from where he was or if he would have passed it on his way in or during the odd two plus hours between camera evidence that he entered the park.
*I posted a map with the location - it posted on the next page.

At this point, we're going to keep the McStay's out of this discussion. Almost every link to a connection is from a non-approved site. Simply having a picture from the McStay's Missing FB of a family member and Bryce is not enough of a connection at this point.

Huh? Guess I missed a good one! Can't imagine what the thought process is/was here. Oh well.

 

[Whiteorchids]

I cannot not completely rule out foul play. The fact he was as at Buttonwillow for so long and the 2 hours unaccounted for does not jive with me.

He was looking for a job and discouraged as to have not secured one according to SD so obviously he needed extra money. Could he have borrowed a large amount of money from a not so nice source (loan shark) which is what brought him to Buttonwillow and hanging out with these so called friends?

Maybe the cell tower at castaic was the meeting place of the person for the transaction as much more private than a parking lot. Bryce had never been there before and being tired and at night made it worse finding the location. Maybe he owed money to or was going to borrow more from this source and it all went bad from there. The person or persons may be familiar with the area and have entered in a way as to not have been detected by the camera.

I still believe Bryce had a pay as you go phone for private matters he did not want traced by his parents being on their cell phone bill.

This case is so bizarre it could go any direction. If he is hiding on purpose I wonder if there is a way to lure him out maybe an old girlfriend he was in love with or someone who meant a great deal to him plead with him to come home. I don't believe in lying but if they made up a rumor that a tragedy has happened in the family would he come out of hiding?

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk HD

 

[Woe.be.gone]

First post to this case......been following for a bit....

I think the critical thinking regarding the crash scenario has been stellar, but...

KISS tells me looking at this scent map that Bryce had a good shot of being home free at that endpoint...maybe picked up as that looks like relatively easy spot to catch a ride. I mean It looks like there are houses nearby

IMO if the scent ended nearer to the dam wall or whatever that instead, him being in the lake would make sense....a trek to a good pickup location indicates self preservation to me.

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk - now Free

Here's a good map showing the location of the church that Baddux posted.

 

[ShannonS]

The GF and roommate were interviewed by LE more than once.

I spoke with roommate for almost 2 hours personally, and he said that the "promises" he had mentioned were that the two of them were going to "clean up their act" and work out, do good in school etc.
Personally I find it hard to believe that making those "promises" public wouldn't be at the top of the list while being interviewed, or tweeting on Twitter etc.
<modsnip>
Either way, after 2 hours of talking in circles, I didn't have any more information than I had before the phone call.
I am in no way accusing him of anything, I just feel that he, as the roommate, should or does know more than he is telling.

I am also going to alert a mod as soon as I post this to make sure this post is within the rules

Dragz... surely by now you have some insight as to Bryces state of mind the nite he left Chico and started his journey south. Would you care to share?

 

[slowpoke]

The following was posted on Facebook 13 minutes ago by the uncle:

For those who couldn't make it, we have been told there was no useable data, search words or other pertinent information stored in the memory of Bryce’s laptop or phone.
Blood analysis from Bryce’s vehicle was confirmed to be Bryce's.
KlassKids is leading an organized search effort in the local area on Sat. 10/19 & Sun. 10/20. Details for the search and volunteer sign up will be posted on the Find Bryce Laspisa Facebook page.

Still trying to catch up with all the posts!

Even though LE said there was no useful data in the laptop, it could be enlightening or telling even just knowing if he spent a lot of time on it that day he was in Buttonwillow (Thurs 8/29)...for example: was he playing games, doing a lot of seemingly random web surfing? If so, one could guess he was in no hurry to hit the road. We might not know for what reason, but it would account for some of those many hours in that town, and, too, it could be speculated he had no clear destination--or that, if he was going home to Laguna Niguel, maybe he was dreading it, stalling.

And if he was on the laptop a lot, we could also guess that he may have spent time at a Starbucks or some other place that had wi-fi. There is a Starbucks on Tracy Ave near the Lagoon Drive referenced as the place BL was located by the Sheriffs. Then our Buttonwillow sleuthers (Amanda and company) could check out places like that.

 

[Woe.be.gone]

I cannot not completely rule out foul play. The fact he was as at Buttonwillow for so long and the 2 hours unaccounted for does not jive with me.

He was looking for a job and discouraged as to have not secured one according to SD so obviously he needed extra money. Could he have borrowed a large amount of money from a not so nice source (loan shark) which is what brought him to Buttonwillow and hanging out with these so called friends?

Maybe the cell tower at castaic was the meeting place of the person for the transaction as much more private than a parking lot. Bryce had never been there before and being tired and at night made it worse finding the location. Maybe he owed money to or was going to borrow more from this source and it all went bad from there. The person or persons may be familiar with the area and have entered in a way as to not have been detected by the camera.

I still believe Bryce had a pay as you go phone for private matters he did not want traced by his parents being on their cell phone bill.

This case is so bizarre it could go any direction. If he is hiding on purpose I wonder if there is a way to lure him out maybe an old girlfriend he was in love with or someone who meant a great deal to him plead with him to come home. I don't believe in lying but if they made up a rumor that a tragedy has happened in the family would he come out of hiding?

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk HD

Not sure if he would or would not. It depends on if he is hiding, why he is hiding.
I dropped the subject (in my own mind) about the burned man who wasn't Bryce. Now, I'm scratching my head again.
At the risk of sounding overly dramatic, could B be running from someone for some reason?
Look what happened to that other guy.

The roomie said they needed and planned to straighten out their acts. What exactly needed straightening? Roomie needs to explain to LE if he hasn't already done so.
As a Christian, he has no other choice but to let whatever it is come into the light.
Wait, now I'm afraid for everybody if bad guys are possibly involved. Naperville versus wherever California represent two different playgrounds.

 

[Deep12]

In regards to both BL's room mates......both have said he was on a certain path....
SD... "saving his soul" going to change his ways..."I think he has gone to find himself, he doesn't want be found" .....that speaks volumes to me.
NC(ex roomie)... "Bryce party'd harder than most" , got evicted out of his dorm, seemingly BL was on a certain path before he moved to his new rooms....according to his ex roomie.

I need to say that I am not trying to paint BL in a bad light ,just trying to grasp an insight into his personality....his wants in life.....I don't want to offend anyone at all....just searching for truths.

I know in a year a lot can happen and change ones way ,for the better...so I'm not saying BL is still either a party animal or anything bad....and there is nothing wrong in being a party animal either....you can still party hard without it being destructive to yourself or those around you........

Sorry for re-hashing BL's past antics but they are very relevant to his state of present mind....

IMO ...I still feel very strongly that he went up to the cell tower out of moodiness towards his flatmates taking away car keys,...can't get to finish with his Girlfriend.....his Mum's persistent(to him) phone calls,he was not answering any texts and calls before the accident.....the LE well being check....he may have been feeling cornered.....and all he could do was leave on his own accord.
The ping and road side assistance were the things that got him allocated....so if he was head strong on a location to begin with and these were the things that found him....he certainly got rid of them fast....
I believe he could have been circling the area to see what/who was about so he could dump the car...

There are a few on WS who have already written the same sort of ideas as mine....and it could help really help to find out where he physically is now..... from leaving Castaic.... his state of mind is relevant....from all sides, BL's family and his friends.....we can only go by that and DRGZR's real and very very relevant posts ,and most articles(not all articles,due to bad reporting) from Media.

BL seems like a 'soul searcher' ..... and if only he is doing that and not in any trouble or worse......