Hello folks. First time poster on this forum and I really appreciate all of the thinking you have put into this case. I know everyone involved in this case quite well, with the exception of the neighbor who owned the boat Lucas was allegedly on. I am local in the area and very involved in the trail running scene as well. I am hoping I can share some information that I know that may help with your thinking. I have read the posting guidelines above and will try my best to adhere to those, please feel free to correct me if I stray.
I would like to clarify some of the things stated in the thread so far:
"Solano" where Lucas was allegedly dropped off is pretty close to Berkeley and the Marina. In fact I know someone he texted after this drop-off, and he discussed a bit of the fight that he and KKF were having. I could get a timestamp on that text if it his helpful. Lucas could have easily walked or ran back to his boat from here, he obviously loved to go on long walks around the area, especially as a way to clear his head.
I believe they were going to purchase a meteor through a connection that Lucas had found in the science world. I'm not sure why the website says "build" a meteor. KKF is very interested in science and this was an appropriate and cool gift idea for her IMO. This part of the story is actually not sketchy to me.
It was my understanding that Lucas left his phone and GPS watch on his boat when he went out on his neighbor's boat. To me that is not that too strange, he is somewhat absent minded and doesn't always have these things with him. Half of his runs were never logged (including long, significant efforts) because he "forgot his watch", or it was dead, or his phone was dead. He was not great with these kind of details.
I have not talked to LE directly but from my understanding they definitely questioned the neighbor with the boat extensively. LE did a full day search of the water, including dive team and SONAR scan, the Sunday after Christmas. AFAIK that's the only search they did. There was also a coordinated coastal search where dozens of people covered 13 miles of coastline quite extensively, at a negative low tide, on the Monday after Christmas I believe. It is my understanding that this is a pretty low priority case for Emeryville LE right now. I don't exactly know why.
The most unusual part of the story to me is the fact that he allegedly jumped in the water in jeans and a fleece. However, you have to understand that we was always a very spontaneous person. Zero hesitation is a better way to describe it. If you know any successful climbers or mountaineers you know that this is a necessary trait to have - if you hesitate in extreme sports like this it is harder to succeed. I can imagine him getting a crazy idea to swim to shore (he liked cold water swims but was not a regular bay swimmer or anything), not hesitating, and jumping in. Yes everyone is correct the water is very cold and it would not take long to go hypothermic in the bay right now without proper clothes on. That being said I know many people that swim sans wetsuit, even now. But they are experienced open water swimmers.
From what I understand there is no evidence that he went back inside his boat. To the running community the crazy part is that he did not take his running vest. He could make it hundreds of miles in jeans and running shoes, even with little or no food. But to not have his running vest is a red flag in these circles. That's considered essential gear and even in a befuddled state I can't imagine him leaving that if he were going out for a long adventure. Also he has "dropped off the grid" on long adventures before, but there have always been 1-2 people that have known where he is that he keeps in touch with.
In my mind I feel like he made a bad decision, jumped in the water, maybe made it to shore only to succumb to hypothermia or even tried to go back into the water afterwards. 99% of me thinks this is the case. 1% of me thinks something else happened, but especially knowing his personality, that 1% is hard to let go of. I don't understand enough about body recovery in the water to know why they have not found his body yet. The marina is about as far into the bay as you can get, across the entire bay from the Golden Gate and getting swept out into the ocean. I don't know how common it is for bodies to turn up and get found when people are not actively looking for them?
Again, thanks for all of the thoughts here, we miss our friend dearly and there's nothing I would like more than to have him run down from the hills and come home. I am happy to try to help if it is appropriate on this forum.
