I've been to JTNP about a half a dozen times over the last 2 years. I've camped there three times. Directly outside of the park there is an observatory called "Sky's the Limit". It is on the north side of JTNP not that far from the 49 Oasis Trailhead, 10 miles driving, perhaps 8 miles as the crow flies. We have been to this observatory quite a few times. As you drive toward the exit of the park you can see a bit of a glow from the city lights, as you reach the exit you can actually see the lights of the city. From the Observatory the city lights are clearly visable. The Observatory is set back further from the city than the Oasis trail. Also, there appears to be at least two different vantage points along the trail that actually allow you views of the city and what I would expect would be a nice bright view of the city lights (even though the city uses light dampening technology to combat light pollution).
I'm spit-balling here, but I really think if he got off trail, got lost, stopped to rest in the heat, he could at night see the glow of the city lights if not the lights themselves from the Oasis area, and as an experienced outdoorsman he could probably make it to the Stater Brothers shopping complex, which is also a decent size cluster of homes bounded on each end by a hotel, just due north and east of the trail.
If he fell/was injured/heat related issues that morning, I would expect he wouldn't be far off the trail. Temperature that day peaked at around 96 degrees (according to Accuweather). How far could he make it off the trail realistically if he was experiencing a medical issue?
I want to believe he's out there, and I'm leaning toward that direction, but he's a lot closer to civilization than Orbeso and Nguyen who were found dead in JTNP after disappearing around the same time of year in 2017.
This case haunts me. JTNP is a magical place.
