Found Alive CA - Sherri Papini, 34, Redding, 2 November 2016 - #7

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Something that would tip the balance for me in this case would be the discovery of foreign DNA or unidentified prints on the phone/earbuds/hair strands.

I was leaning towards murder/abduction by persons known to her but now, after today's reflection, the lack of search action and the somewhat bizarre reward offer...well, I'm changing my call. I now think it is a voluntary (and planned) disappearance and I think the chances are that she may have harmed herself.

That is in the back of my mind too.

For me, she's either randomly abducted by some creep, or she willingly walked off.

Suicide if she willingly walked off, disguised as possible to spare her children. But where if that's so?
 
If this were a suicide, she may not be far, just well hidden.

Given the statistical likelihood that this is a suicide (exponentially more likely than an abduction, even more so given so little evidence of that event) why aren't they searching for a body then? Or are they, and we just aren't hearing about it.

I remember when firefighter Nicole Mittendorff, who apparently had been bullied/harrassed at work, went missing in the forest, searching for her was intense and they didn't stop until they found a body.
 
My gut / initial feelings on cases are almost always right, I don't even consider it cynical, just uncanny and scary sometimes. I've been wrong on 2 cases since joining WS: Jenise Wright and Amanda Blackburn. I was stumped on the McStay family, only because the abduction of an entire family was unheard of, and it looked like a family escaped in panic or a murder/suicide to me.

Yes, maybe cynical isn't the right word to use, although it felt like it with Mark Seivers even before I saw him because of the "perfect alibi." Both on WS and in "real life" I get a funny feeling about someone for no apparent reason and even if it takes years I'm almost always right. It has nothing to do with body language, "duper's delight" or statement analysis either. I don't like those feelings and try to downplay them because I don't like feeling that way about people. But they are so often right that I get a little nervous when I feel that way on WS about someone seemingly innocent. Sigh.
 
Not a chance. 99.9% it was the Sherri in this case. Unless there's another Sherri Graeff with the middle name Louise. So far I've only seen one other Sherri Graeff around in searches and she lives in another state.
It's hard to be sure with some sights. I found a 97 year old with same middle initial on one of those websites that gathers all public info and then tries to sell to you. You can find by searching for her full maiden name, Shasta Lake, California. I don't know how credible a source so not sure I can link?

Who knows how often info gets updated or purged as I've run across a deceased family member info on there, and the age updates automatically with them getting older though deceased.
:giggle:
I wondered if that particular entry was a namesake or data entry error?
:thinking:
 
True, but in Sherri's case she was on foot. How far could she have gotten in the amount of time before people started looking?

Here is a link to a recent case on websleuths about a young lad in the UK: he was known to be unhappy and had procured a suicide drug. There was almost immediate searches launched for him, but he still managed to walk some distance away from the last sighting. His body was found about 4 weeks later in the undergrowth along a canal path that had been searched already by organized and motivated searchers.
http://www.websleuths.com/forums/sh...ton-Stone-25-Oct-2016&p=12916621#post12916621
 
Hypothetically. If suicide is case, she did one of two things after dropping the phone at 'the crossroads'. Either took her normal route, or went the other way. She would be pretty agitated I would think and wouldn't get more than a mile from that intersection. I would speculate that the act of dropping the phone was the moment she was resolved. I would guess she is no more than a 15 minute walk down Old Oregon Trail or up Sunrise Drive.
 
I am leaning towards abduction and sadly murder. I know the sheriff has said abduction is very rare, which must mean he doesn't think that is what happened. Why would he even bother saying that? He must be hedging. So he must not be convinced. So that leaves voluntary or hoax. Voluntary could mean left to commit suicide, or left to start new life, or just to get away for awhile. I consider Hoax a little different than walk away. She wants to gain something. Either fame, revenge, political statement, money, or to get back at someone. Maybe she walked away and will have second thoughts. A hoax seems even less likely than abduction, as long as the good sheriff is bookmaking the odds. So if she comes out of the woods christmas day, claiming an ordeal and hawking a book, i will go with hoax. I do not think a kidnapping for ransom is realistic given nobody to our knowledge has asked for money. I doubt a sexually motivated kidnapper could be enticed for money. I lean towards a sexually motivated abductor and she is most likely dead. Though we know some keep them captive for a time. There is still hope no matter. And then there is the walk away. Whether hoax or walk away, she needs a mode of transportation away from the scene. So some cab driver, or someone who picked up a hitchhiker might still be out there, who has missed the news. Or her accomplice is staying silent for the payday. If it is suicide, my guess is she is within walking distance from her house. Of course given her health could be many miles. If it is suicide or walk away, we are missing the motive. The family could be in denial or just afraid to discuss anything so personal. I remember JH in oregon, who committed suicide and she was described as a loving mother who would never leave her kids too. I just don't get the staging if the phone is staging. JH just drove out of town and killed herself. Again I think it was abduction. But also I really do not know.
 
That is in the back of my mind too.
For me, she's either randomly abducted by some creep, or she willingly walked off.
Suicide if she willingly walked off, disguised as possible to spare her children. But where if that's so?

Maybe she did it out of state in one of the prior states she lived in a la apparently Rita Maze
 
If this were a suicide, she may not be far, just well hidden.

Like Leanne Bearden...deep in someone's overgrown backyard. She wasn't found for about a month by the property owner. People were asked to check their yards and that hasn't happened here. Also, searchers are so used to looking at the ground, they sometimes forget to look up. :(
 
Oh my goodness that is long. So very sorry!!! Am I able to delete it?

Very thoughtful analysis. I will definitely consider your words and I know they do come from a place of wanting to solve this case.

Please don't. It was a very thought out post!


Yes please.... I am so very interested in seeing these blogs and Pinterest.... so far, I've only seen the perfect photos and as a previous poster mentioned, where is ANYTHING that reveals something, anything about her friends, interests, etc. The photos reveal nothing to me on any level... they look like sugary glamour shots and give off a vibe that anything less than perfection is frowned upon. JMO . Thank you all in advance!
 
Something that would tip the balance for me in this case would be the discovery of foreign DNA or unidentified prints on the phone/earbuds/hair strands.

I was leaning towards murder/abduction by persons known to her but now, after today's reflection, the lack of search action and the somewhat bizarre reward offer...well, I'm changing my call. I now think it is a voluntary (and planned) disappearance and I think the chances are that she may have harmed herself.

I think there's a pretty good chance of that, too. I've been wavering from the beginning, but that has seemed like a strong possibility all along. :( I think the lack of info and strangeness that's been discussed for seven threads could easily be attributed to this being a known possibility.
 
Yes, maybe cynical isn't the right word to use, although it felt like it with Mark Seivers even before I saw him because of the "perfect alibi." Both on WS and in "real life" I get a funny feeling about someone for no apparent reason and even if it takes years I'm almost always right. It has nothing to do with body language, "duper's delight" or statement analysis either. I don't like those feelings and try to downplay them because I don't like feeling that way about people. But they are so often right that I get a little nervous when I feel that way on WS about someone seemingly innocent. Sigh.

Hear, hear! It's probably why we joined WS. An innate ability. I don't believe in psychics ... but it's something.
 
Hypothetically. If suicide is case, she did one of two things after dropping the phone at 'the crossroads'. Either took her normal route, or went the other way. She would be pretty agitated I would think and wouldn't get more than a mile from that intersection. I would speculate that the act of dropping the phone was the moment she was resolved. I would guess she is no more than a 15 minute walk down Old Oregon Trail or up Sunrise Drive.

There's a trail right there that leads into the woods. It actually looks like it serves as a driveway for some houses, but joins up with trails. If she tossed the phone I'm sure she would have headed into the woods and she easily could have walked all the way to the lake. She also grew up in the area, so she likely knows quite a bit about those woods.

It's been a leading theory of mine (and several other posters here, I think) since day 1.
 
There's a trail right there that leads into the woods. It actually looks like it serves as a driveway for some houses, but joins up with trails. If she tossed the phone I'm sure she would have headed into the woods and she easily could have walked all the way to the lake. She also grew up in the area, so she likely knows quite a bit about those woods.

I can't imagine this woman all alone out there surviving in the woods, but who knows anything is possible at this point. She definitely did her research as far as her pinterest page tells us.
 
Like Leanne Bearden...deep in someone's overgrown backyard. She wasn't found for about a month by the property owner. People were asked to check their yards and that hasn't happened here. Also, searchers are so used to looking at the ground, they sometimes forget to look up. :(


Jennifer Huston trespassed on private property, going through a gate to a wooded grove. The owner of the property didn't pay attention to the news that had been covering her disappearance for several weeks, so when he saw a green Lexus SUV on his trail, he had no idea there was a BOLO for it. He went home and told his wife, she had been watching the news and knew who the Lexus belonged to. They found her not far from her vehicle.
 
Hear, hear! It's probably why we joined WS. An innate ability. I don't believe in psychics ... but it's something.

OT--An innate ability is a good description. I know I'm not psychic, and don't believe in them either. My Mom had the same ability and I thought she was being judgemental, but it really was discernment. One of my bosses had it too and we used to talk about it. He made really good hiring decisions because of it, I think. :) And it probably does have something to do with joining WS. My first thread was Stephanie Warner's because I saw her boyfriend on TV, just "knew" and came right to the thread to post...and never left.
 
I understand that searches on foot have been done, but I'm wondering why the lake hasn't been searched.
 
Hate to say this, but on tv they find a one inch square of fabric with viable dna on it, and in real life, they miss the whole body.

I'm getting morbid. I hope for her sake she walked away to a new life, but if she has I'm angry with what she's done to her family. If someone close to her has murdered her, I'm even angrier because society has become so nonchalant about death being the answer (in so many cases) to minimal problems or disputes.
:gaah:
 
Given the statistical likelihood that this is a suicide (exponentially more likely than an abduction, even more so given so little evidence of that event) why aren't they searching for a body then? Or are they, and we just aren't hearing about it.

I remember when firefighter Nicole Mittendorff, who apparently had been bullied/harrassed at work, went missing in the forest, searching for her was intense and they didn't stop until they found a body.

Because they don't believe it is. Neither do I.
 
Here is a link to a recent case on websleuths about a young lad in the UK: he was known to be unhappy and had procured a suicide drug. There was almost immediate searches launched for him, but he still managed to walk some distance away from the last sighting. His body was found about 4 weeks later in the undergrowth along a canal path that had been searched already by organized and motivated searchers.
http://www.websleuths.com/forums/sh...ton-Stone-25-Oct-2016&p=12916621#post12916621

It's hard to find a body when nobody is looking at all.
Agree with posters upthread, why aren't locals being urged to check their properties? Why aren't they searching local woods etc?

I don't think this is a case of the husband doing it. He was cleared early and doesn't give me hinky feelings at all. Maybe he did, what do I know? I can only say what my feels are.
I did feel this was abduction, but the longer things go without any further evidence the more I think it's probably the more statistically likely suicide.

Yes, deliberately leaving for a new life is also an option but where is the evidence?

Because they don't believe it is. Neither do I.

Sorry who is "they"? Law enforcement? Family?
 
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