Some factors to consider here:
--He couldn't have driven Eugene's car into the lake. The only pre-text he used was "I can't talk right now". The other one was "be home in an hour"
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--there would likely be witnesses to the accident itself.
--there would likely be witnesses seeing someone drive a badly beat up car (possibly with someone in it) and maybe they would have reported it to police
LE has indicated this is not criminal in nature and that he left on his own.
At this point, I'm assuming that we won't hear much about this anymore. We MIGHT, but I'm not sure anymore. I've been reading the Find Eugene FB page, and nothing new has been posted by the admin of that page since Saturday, nor has there been any new media releases.
The only other explanation for those texts that would support your theory was if Jonathan just casually typed "he home in an hour" - not really knowing where Eugene originally lived. Maybe he assumed he was a local and figured an hour would be enough time for him to get home.
I dunno...I'm so stumped as each passing day goes by.
Just my honest opinion.