JMO
I really do hope this fizzles out eventually.
Read an interesting theory. If the worse case happens and it ends up staying for good, then maybe it will level out with the Flu and equalize without causing much more overall totals than we have each year already with flu because those that would catch it should not be catching regular Flu at the same time.
Would that happen or would it not matter and just add to regular flu totals?
That’s a really good question, and I have no idea what the long term answer would be, but I think they would have to keep the statistics separate for awhile.
While on the subject of the flu and data, I have to say that all of the recent headline comparisons of the flu and the COVID-19 virus have really bothered me lately. I know that, year to date, the flu has caused more deaths globally (or at least based on the reported numbers from China), but if we take a look at the “worst case scenario” based on guesstimates, this virus has the potential to make the flu look like child’s play.
I honestly don’t have much faith in any of the numbers that are being published right now. Too many unknowns, too many variables, inaccurate data being reporting, lack of test kits, etc,...
So, out of curiosity, I ran some quick numbers to see what the “worst case scenario” would look like based on the current high end assumptions.
PLEASE KEEP IN MIND THAT THE FOLLOWING IS A STATISTICAL WORST CASE SCENARIO. THERE ARE WAY TOO MANY VARIABLES CURRENTLY IN PLAY FOR ANYONE TO PROJECT OR FORECAST WHAT THE END RESULTS WILL BE. THIS POST IS INTENDED FOR AWARENESS - NOT TO SOUND ANY ALARMS OR TO RAISE FEAR AND ANXIETY.
I’ll also add that I believe the actions and precautions being put in place by the WHO, and most world governments, will have a major impact on the final outcome. By implementing control measures, the number of potential fatalities will be greatly reduced, even in the event of a global pandemic. With that being said - the rest of this post is a high level snapshot of the worst case scenario using only raw data and excludes any policies aimed at controlling the variables.
WARNING!!
SCARY NUMBERS AHEAD!!
I started with looking up the number of deaths attributed to the flu on an annual basis and found the following from the CDC that was published in December of 2017
CDC Press Releases
From that article:
“According to new estimates published today,
between 291,000 and 646,000 people worldwide die from seasonal influenza-related respiratory illnesses each year, higher than a previous estimate of 250,000 to 500,000 and based on a robust, multinational survey.”
From there, I used numbers posted throughout this thread to come up with the following:
Somewhere upthread, someone posted an article wherein one of the scientist predicted that if the quarantines fail, he believed 60% to 80% of the world population could get infected.
The range on the assumptions of the mortality rate seem to be running between 2% & 5% (I think 3% is the most widely published number right now, and I have seen estimates that are below 2%, as well as estimates well above 5%)
It’s obvious the numbers are all over the board, but I opted to go with 80% infected & 5% mortality rate for the worst possible outcome.
Current global population is approximately 7.8 billion people.
World Population Clock: 7.8 Billion People (2020) - Worldometer
80% would be 6.24 billion people
5% of 6.24 billion =
312 million people
What I don’t know is how long it is projected to take for 80% of the population to catch the virus, so I can’t say that this would be an annual number. Irregardless, 312 million, IMO, would be a MUCH greater issue than the flu, even if the flu runs at the high end of 646,000 deaths annually.
To put this in perspective, the current population of the US is currently 331 million.
United States Population (2020) - Worldometer
Even at the lower end, the number is staggering. 60% world population infected @ 2% mortality rate = 93.6 million!
PLEASE KEEP IN MIND - we really don’t know where this is all going to end up. Historically speaking, several very devastating viruses have ran their course in very short order and just kind of fade away - hopefully this one will do the same. However, there have also been several historical pandemics that had a large impact on the world population.
IMOO - My point being, although it is statistically true that the flu is CURRENTLY more dangerous than the COVID-19 virus, the POTENTIAL danger of the COVID-19 virus should not be downplayed.
Comparing CURRENT NUMBERS should be used to raise awareness of the impact the flu has on our world, and knowing that the CURRENT NUMBERS reflect that the flu is currently larger than COVID-19 should be used to calm nerves. However, IMO, those who report on the matter are misrepresenting the true scale of this event if they don’t simultaneously bring awareness to the POTENTIAL global impact of the COVID-19 virus.
The COVID-19 virus is new - it is in its infancy. To directly compare it to the flu at this point is to compare apples to oranges.
To me, it’s like comparing an adult black bear to a baby grizzly. It wouldn’t be ethical to run a headline of “Black Bears are Deadlier than Grizzlies” based on such a comparison! Yet, here we are...
