Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Emergency #4

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Amonet said:
Someone posted a link to a DailyMail story suggesting that the virus didn't come direct from the wild (seafood market) but from an infectious diseases research centre in Wuhan.

Ticks on bats were suggested. But ticks don't really match with a respiratory virus.

I think it's important to bear in mind that these things crop up sometimes, they cross from one animal to another and/or into humans. I think one reason I feel suspicious of these 'theories' that it escaped from a lab are how often that theory comes up, like with the poisoning in Salisbury/Amesbury. I don't believe that substance came from Porton Down, I believe it came from out of the UK in a vial.

Scientists have said that they see no sign of genetic engineering in the virus. It makes little sense to purposely release such a virus. It would probably make a lot more sense to study known coronaviruses/influenzas in a lab than to be attempting to find new ones and get lucky enough to find this one, successfully transfer it into another animal, and then into humans, and then accidentally release it.

It seems a lot simpler to me (Occam's Razor) for this virus to have got into humans in the conventional way...its genome suggests it has been in a bat reservoir for a long time, just like its cousin SARS. SARS jumped into civet cats, and then into humans. They believe this one jumped into another species before jumping to humans. My guess would be that species is some kind of live animal that was on sale in that market... a chicken, a pig, something I've never heard of? This sort of thing has been happening for thousands of years. It happened less than 20 years ago with SARS. It happened with MERS. Is it really an outlandish concept that it happened again? There are four coronaviruses that cause symptoms we call 'a cold', and once upon a time they lived in an animal before a mutation happened that meant they could thrive in humans.

Yes, viruses have escaped from labs before..smallpox got out from a British lab and caused the last deaths from Smallpox in the UK, I believe. But smallpox was already in existence, nature had already made it. If SARS got out from a lab, same thing, nature already made it. I believe the most likely explanation is that this one also developed naturally. Viruses jumping species is not unusual. What would be unusual is a virus with a history like covid-19s, that doesn't appear to scientists to have been genetically engineered, there wouldn't appear to be any reason to make such a thing...it's not like an unknown variant of smallpox that shows obvious signs of genetic engineering for a purpose.
Click to expand...

@Amonet , I personally believe the virus may have escaped from a lab setting, but I agree with most everything else you’ve stated.
IF it came from a lab, I believe it was one of many naturally occurring viruses that was being studied. I don’t believe it was genetically altered in any way, and I definitely don’t believe it was released intentionally.
I’ve also seen theories floating around that this may have been an attempt at population control - which I find to be a rather asinine theory altogether. Population control is a big concern for China, and has been for years. But the purpose of population control is to ease the burdens of the government and its citizens to maintain and provide for so many people. To purposely release a virus of this nature into the general population of one it’s larger cities would be very counterproductive. This virus has increased the burden 100 fold, and may ultimately put China on the verge of bankruptcy!

If this virus did originate from a lab - IT WASN’T INTENTIONAL!!

All of the above is MOO!
 
What if... said:
WOW! The R0 of this virus appears to be insane!
Click to expand...

Until they figure out the source on that ship, I would think anyone coming off that ship at anytime needs to do their 14 days afterwards somewhere else. It could be through air circulation to many or a superspreader or ?. Still haven't seen any papers on it but this "case" is a researchers dream paper if an epidemiologist iykwim. But they would need access to all the data, and I don't know if the Japanese are going to be keen on sharing the info from the ship.

We'll see.

I need to find that post I did with the maritime laws/info on coronavirus on ships.

Found them.. off to read them

Maritime Resources | Quarantine | CDC

Interim Guidance for Ships on Managing Suspected Coronavirus Disease 2019 | Quarantine | CDC

Maritime.JPG
 
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@JerseyGirl - as we are getting to the point of starting a new thread, can you please add this to the beginning of the next thread? TIA

There are about 11 "standard" links that folks are using. Putting them all in one post.
  1. Johns Hopkins site dashboard Operations Dashboard for ArcGIS
  2. BNO site Tracking coronavirus: Map, data and timeline
  3. BNO twitter Twitter
  4. Daily situation reports from the WHO Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) situation reports
  5. Guardian rolling updates (changes each day though) Coronavirus: first fatality in Europe confirmed - live updates
  6. World O meter graphics Coronavirus Update (Live): 67,193 Cases and 1,527 Deaths from the Wuhan China Virus Outbreak - Worldometer
  7. CDC main page on virus 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)
  8. CDC press page Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19)
  9. WHO coronavirus main page Coronavirus
  10. WHO press briefings archive page Press briefings
  11. Wuhan airport traffic (Whoa, a few going out today, one to Italy) Wuhan Tianhe Airport (Wuhan, Hubei) ZHHH / WUH Flight Tracker ✈ FlightAware
Does anyone else have others to add?

ETA
Maritime Resources | Quarantine | CDC
Interim Guidance for Ships on Managing Suspected Coronavirus Disease 2019 | Quarantine | CDC
2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Risk Assessment
2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) For business owners
 
BNO Newsroom
@BNODesk
·
5h
The 14 asymptomatic Americans who tested positive and got their positive results for coronavirus as they were being evacuated have been moved to a containment area on the evacuation plane; they'll be allowed to proceed to the U.S.

Below, screenshot of Joint statement by US Dept. of State and US Dept of H&HS

EQ9W1usXsAAvDOU


Bless them!

Quarantineonboard.JPG

Just love that Kalitta Air has these capabilities and is contracted by DOD for cases such as this.
 
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14 Americans test positive for coronavirus as U.S. evacuates cruise passengers — Los Angeles Times


“The woman, Jerri Jorgenson, and her husband, Mark, were confined to the cabin adjoining the Goldmans', and the two couples had unlocked a partition separating their balconies so they could move freely back and forth between the units during the quarantine, Carl Goldman wrote.

"Last night, after watching a movie, all four of us took our temperatures. Jerri had a fever," he wrote. "In the morning, she still had a fever. As Mark and Jerri were getting ready to call the ship’s hospital, Japanese health officials knocked on their door. They were dressed in hazmat suits."

He said that they handed Mark Jorgenson a letter saying that his wife had tested positive for the virus and said she had one hour to pack a small bag. She was taken by ambulance to a hospital about four hours away in Fukushima, where her husband was not permitted to join her, Goldman wrote.

Goldman, his wife and Mark Jorgenson were planning to fly back to the U.S. on one of the evacuation flights and undergo a second quarantine at one of the military bases, Goldman wrote.”

So if you tested positive but had no fever or symptoms- you could get on the plane. But positive or fever/symptoms- you were not allowed on the plane?
 
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What if... said:
@Amonet , I personally believe the virus may have escaped from a lab setting, but I agree with most everything else you’ve stated.
IF it came from a lab, I believe it was one of many naturally occurring viruses that was being studied. I don’t believe it was genetically altered in any way, and I definitely don’t believe it was released intentionally.
I’ve also seen theories floating around that this may have been an attempt at population control - which I find to be a rather asinine theory altogether. Population control is a big concern for China, and has been for years. But the purpose of population control is to ease the burdens of the government and its citizens to maintain and provide for so many people. To purposely release a virus of this nature into the general population of one it’s larger cities would be very counterproductive. This virus has increased the burden 100 fold, and may ultimately put China on the verge of bankruptcy!

If this virus did originate from a lab - IT WASN’T INTENTIONAL!!

All of the above is MOO!
Click to expand...

JMO
I agree totally with this, in that, if it came from that close by research center, it was an accidental release of something they were studying.

I could see it coming from an animal too so Im not sure yet where it came from but I think the possibility is there of an accidental release. The main thing that points to that IMO is how China released the Gnome sequence very quickly after news about this started coming out. Maybe they figured it out quickly or maybe they had already studied it to know certain things about it.

Im not sure we will ever know for sure its source.
 
gregjrichards said:
Another 99 cases of coronavirus have been confirmed on board the Diamond Princess, taking the total on the quarantined cruise ship to 454.

Quarantined cruise ship is hit by ANOTHER 99 coronavirus cases | Daily Mail Online
Click to expand...
WOW! The R0 of this virus appears to be insane!
Henry2326 said:
Hmmmm....maybe this is why.....

"About 80 per cent of the ship's passengers are 60 or older, with 215 in their 80s and 11 in their 90s, according to Japanese media."
Click to expand...
You have a good point there! Great observation.

ETA
Your observation about R0 and age has me thinking....

Posing this as a question to anyone more familiar with viral transmission than I am.
As far as I know, the age of an infected patient generally comes into play with mortality rates. As far as I know, age generally doesn’t impact R0??
 
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gregjrichards said:
Young couple's wedding on board a cruise is cancelled because of the coronavirus crisis - and now they have nine days to plan their dream day

Kiara Titan and her fiance Ryan Robertson planned to say their vows on the Princess Cruises ship from Fremantle, Western Australia, to Singapore on February 22.

But their wedding dreams were shattered on Saturday when they received an early-morning email from the cruise company to say the trip had been cancelled.

Young couple's wedding on board a CRUISE is cancelled nine days out because of coronavirus | Daily Mail Online

Princess Cruises should be giving more notice of cancellation than nine days. It’s not like this crisis just started a few days ago.
Click to expand...
It is unfortunate that their wedding has to be canceled, but at least they aren’t stuck under a weeks-long quarantine on a cruise ship that is a floating Petri dish, where every day more passengers are testing positive for the virus.

Or one of the thousands (millions?) trapped under quarantine in China, many without sufficient food and medicine. Or thousands who have contracted the disease, or lost a family member. Or the journalists who are missing.

Sorry but in the overall scheme of things I think a wedding postponement is pretty far down the list. An inconvenience, a disappointment, but in the end they will get married. They aren’t sick, dead, or quarantined.

MOO YMMV
 
MimosaMornings said:
14 Americans test positive for coronavirus as U.S. evacuates cruise passengers — Los Angeles Times


“The woman, Jerri Jorgenson, and her husband, Mark, were confined to the cabin adjoining the Goldmans', and the two couples had unlocked a partition separating their balconies so they could move freely back and forth between the units during the quarantine, Carl Goldman wrote.

"Last night, after watching a movie, all four of us took our temperatures. Jerri had a fever," he wrote. "In the morning, she still had a fever. As Mark and Jerri were getting ready to call the ship’s hospital, Japanese health officials knocked on their door. They were dressed in hazmat suits."

He said that they handed Mark Jorgenson a letter saying that his wife had tested positive for the virus and said she had one hour to pack a small bag. She was taken by ambulance to a hospital about four hours away in Fukushima, where her husband was not permitted to join her, Goldman wrote.

Goldman, his wife and Mark Jorgenson were planning to fly back to the U.S. on one of the evacuation flights and undergo a second quarantine at one of the military bases, Goldman wrote.”

So if you tested positive but had no fever or symptoms- you could get on the plane. But positive or fever/symptoms- you were not allowed on the plane?
Click to expand...


The Goldmans own the MSM station KHTS , and have discussed this on their MSM link Santa Clarita Residents To Return To United States After Coronavirus Quarantine On Diamond Princess: Part Six — Hometown Station | KHTS FM 98.1 & AM 1220 — Santa Clarita Radio - Santa Clarita News . Appears she (Jerri, who was next door to them)was taken off earlier on Saturday with symptoms (fever) and a positive test. So yep, you had to be asymptomatic. Fortunately for those 14, the test results didn't come back for those asymptomatic/positive folks until AFTER they had disembarked and were already on the buses to the planes Sunday night.

That's my understanding from readings this am.
 
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dixiegirl1035 said:
@JerseyGirl - as we are getting to the point of starting a new thread, can you please add this to the beginning of the next thread? TIA

There are about 11 "standard" links that folks are using. Putting them all in one post.
  1. Johns Hopkins site dashboard Operations Dashboard for ArcGIS
  2. BNO site Tracking coronavirus: Map, data and timeline
  3. BNO twitter Twitter
  4. Daily situation reports from the WHO Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) situation reports
  5. Guardian rolling updates (changes each day though) Coronavirus: first fatality in Europe confirmed - live updates
  6. World O meter graphics Coronavirus Update (Live): 67,193 Cases and 1,527 Deaths from the Wuhan China Virus Outbreak - Worldometer
  7. CDC main page on virus 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)
  8. CDC press page Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19)
  9. WHO coronavirus main page Coronavirus
  10. WHO press briefings archive page Press briefings
  11. Wuhan airport traffic (Whoa, a few going out today, one to Italy) Wuhan Tianhe Airport (Wuhan, Hubei) ZHHH / WUH Flight Tracker ✈ FlightAware
Does anyone else have others to add?

ETA
Maritime Resources | Quarantine | CDC
Interim Guidance for Ships on Managing Suspected Coronavirus Disease 2019 | Quarantine | CDC
2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Risk Assessment
2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) For business owners
Click to expand...
On the CDC page you indicated above, They update the situation summary regularly. I skip to it for a quick rundown to see any updates.
 
dixiegirl1035 said:
The Goldmans own the MSM station KHTS , and have discussed this on their MSM link Santa Clarita Residents To Return To United States After Coronavirus Quarantine On Diamond Princess: Part Six — Hometown Station | KHTS FM 98.1 & AM 1220 — Santa Clarita Radio - Santa Clarita News . Appears she was taken off earlier on Saturday with symptoms (fever) and a positive test. So yep, you had to be asymptomatic. Fortunately for those 14, the test results didn't come back for those asymptomatic/positive folks until AFTER they had disembarked and were already on the buses to the planes Sunday night.

That's my understanding from readings this am.
Click to expand...
Lucky.....they should play the lottery....
 
What if... said:
WOW! The R0 of this virus appears to be insane!

You have a good point there! Great observation.

ETA
Your observation about R0 and age has me thinking....

Posing this as a question to anyone more familiar with viral transmission than I am.
As far as I know, the age of an infected patient generally comes into play with mortality rates. As far as I know, age generally doesn’t impact R0??
Click to expand...
It would be interesting to know the age breakdown in Wuhan of confirmed cases. I noticed in the videos that the young appear to be making food, running packages, and managing things....,young as in below 30, IMO.
 
dixiegirl1035 said:
The Goldmans own the MSM station KHTS , and have discussed this on their MSM link Santa Clarita Residents To Return To United States After Coronavirus Quarantine On Diamond Princess: Part Six — Hometown Station | KHTS FM 98.1 & AM 1220 — Santa Clarita Radio - Santa Clarita News . Appears she was taken off earlier on Saturday with symptoms (fever) and a positive test. So yep, you had to be asymptomatic. Fortunately for those 14, the test results didn't come back for those asymptomatic/positive folks until AFTER they had disembarked and were already on the buses to the planes Sunday night.

That's my understanding from readings this am.
Click to expand...
Thank you @dixiegirl1035
 
I don’t think this has been shared here...

How China’s Incompetence Endangered the World

“As the deadly coronavirus began to spread, Beijing wasted the most critical resource to fight it: trust.”
BY LAURIE GARRETTFEBRUARY 15, 2020, 4:48 PM ( Laurie Garrett is a former senior fellow for global health at the Council on Foreign Relations and a Pulitzer Prize winning science writer.)

“The novel coronavirus epidemic has reached a critical juncture. Steps taken over the next few days, particularly by Beijing’s leadership, will decide the fate of the virus and whether spreads internationally to become a genuine pandemic. Time is short for the Chinese government to prevent a catastrophe...”

... “I prefer to believe that humanity will contain the coronavirus to a far less horrible level for long enough to develop an effective vaccine. But this will require a massive effort over long stretches of time. Novel vaccines require years of research and testing.

Unfortunately, China is showing how all this can go wrong, making a crisis into a catastrophe. Xi’s government has provided the world with reams of data, but their credibility, or lack thereof, is inextricably bound to the CCP’s methods of governance, censorship, intimidation, and toadyism. The rest of the world is left to prognosticate and prepare without really knowing what havoc the coronavirus enemy is capable of wreaking.”

(I Underlined “reams of data” to point out that the article mentioned issues with the data-such as:

“difficult to ascribe credibility to those estimates because nobody really knew the baseline—how many people were infected. Not only were too few people getting tested, but the diagnostic kits were so difficult to execute properly that there was a false negative rate as high as 50 percent, meaning some labs were missing half of all infections.”

And: “by Feb. 5, the funeral parlors and crematoriums were reported to be having problems keeping up with the disposal of the dead in Wuhan. Though no data was provided to address the matter.”

Moo: They are trying to catch a runaway train, one that can change course and jump tracks.
 
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