Coronavirus - COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #22

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IKWYM

Ive had to take many breaks already. Its almost funny (but kind of sad) that the other day I said to myself "I need to go over to a murder thread to get a break from this virus thread". Like a simple murder or two may relax me some. :)

Exactly, how strange the thoughts. But, we all have been on a roller coaster as I think you described it threads ago. I have found myself in many depths of character through these threads.
To all, it occurs to me that we do need to take care of ourselves. These are unusual and historic times and none of us know the path tomorrow may take us on. Fear and the unknown rule the hours of each day. Today rest and be kind, eat well, and exercise. Help others and prepare for harder days. We can do this!
 
Seems we have no capacity for anything. China managed to test an enormous number of people, and we are barely testing.
Says China, the same country that tried to cover it up. N offense to you, please. But China+open mouth = BS

We'll get to a point rather quickly where there will be more available matter of fact Roche just had a new test approved. Patience. That's key here. Look what all the misinformation, especially from the one supposed to be leading us, look at the confusion its caused already. More tests are coming. DC health has said they now can test. Patience. Stay home. There should be no if in this with anyone, period. Stay home. Especially if your worried you could be affected. Work from home if you can. Those that cant really should put pressure on employers to close for now. That's why you all should buy and stock what you can for 30 days.
Retail is going to have to follow suit here. People working in an office for example only have to worry about coworkers, right? Retail on the other hand, how many are you going to pass or interact with who DONT have the common sense to wash often, cover mouths or noses, spit right in front of you on the ground walking in, think it only hits the ground? Nope honey done got sprayed let's not mention those behind registers. Nope.
I get the money and the effect it's going to have but something is going to have to give. Personally I've stocked what we needed. Didn't go nuts but I can ride this awhile and while I know some can't, at least be diligent and vigilant about this and take extra precautions. I'd rather struggle for a moment financially than become a statistic.
Lucky
 
I wanted to crunch the numbers for a Coronavirus Infection in my area because I wanted to see what an infection based on the the percentages of infection stated by the CDC & WHO would look like.
The percentages are:
At diagnosis - 80% of patients have mild to moderate infection; 15% severe; 5% critical
Progression - Approximately 10-15% mild/moderate cases become severe, and 15-20% of severe cases progress to critical
The most common Coronavirus symptoms are dry cough, sore throat, fever, shortness of breath,fatigue
Coronavirus infection classifications are:
Mild virus symptoms but do not involve pneumonia.
Moderate involves virus symptoms and mild pneumonia
Severe cases involves virus symptoms with pneumonia related shortness of breath, low blood oxygen saturation or other lung problems.
Critical cases involve virus symptoms with respiratory failure, septic shock or multiple organ dysfunction.

The population serviced by the hospital in my area is just over 50,000 individuals, not including the tourists. If only 10% or 5,000 of the area's population becomes infected:
At diagnosis my area will have:
80% or 4,000 individuals with mild or moderate infection
15% = 750 severe
5% = 250 critical

Based on the lower % rate of progression
10% or 400 individuals with mild/moderate will progress to severe;
15% or 112 severe patients will progress to critical.
Totaling 1150 severe cases and 362 critical patients needing care at the area hospital.

This Hospital has a total of 197 beds (including neonatal) If only 5% of the population are infected the severe and critical care cases would still need more beds than this hospital has leaving the community without adequate medical resources to care for the usual everyday issues that keep this hospital very busy.

Adding more strain to the healthcare system is the lengthy recovery time for severe and critical cases.

According to the my state's Dept. of Health data, the entire state has a total of 15,130 hospital beds (Neonate beds included) The state's population is just over 5 million not including all of the tourists enjoying our beaches. If only 10% of the population is infected there will be 500,000 mild/moderate cases 75,000 severe cases and 25,000 patients in critical condition at diagnosis.


I hope those counting on being among the 80% and able to carry on with their normal life without preparing or being worried about transmitting the virus to others in the community remain healthy and do not have any accidents because their local hospital is going to be overwhelmed with the individuals not lucky enough to be in that 80%. MOO
 
Well, "jam his phone line", "blitz his email" worked out well for our state.

VA GOVERNOR Northam CLOSES SCHOOLS !!!

Governor Northam orders all Virginia K-12 schools closed for minimum of two weeks

Schools will close from Monday, March 16, through Friday, March 27, at a minimum. Localities will maintain authority over specific staffing decisions to ensure students maintain continuity of services or learning, while protecting the public health of teachers and staff.

For those that have contacted state and/or Congressional Representatives, keep it up!!!

Moo
They all need to be candid, like MI & OH, imo.
Our Governor is keen on twice daily updates but always the “social distance, but still go out & wash your hands, but stay home if sick, don’t go to your doctor. ....”.
 
Oh, that reminds me of another tip I just thought about since I heard even bottled water is running low in some places. If you are lucky enough to live where there is a natural spring that has commercialized it and sells their spring water into containers that you bring yourself, that is another good place to get water that should never run out.

We have a private farm nearby where they tapped into a fresh spring water source and they sell their water as long as you bring your own plastic bottles. I did not even remember about it until I saw some news article about bottled water is even running short in some places.
 
US coronavirus cases in March via @CNN:
3/1 - 89 cases
3/2 - 105 cases
3/3 - 125 cases
3/4 - 159 cases
3/5 - 227 cases
3/6 - 331 cases
3/7 - 444 cases
3/8 - 564 cases
3/9 - 728 cases
3/10 - 1,000 cases
3/11 - 1,267 cases
3/12 - 1,645 cases
3/13 - 2,131 cases (as of 6 p.m.)

Ryan Struyk on Twitter
Screenshot_20200313-204530_Calculator.jpg
So, in a week our numbers could be this or higher?!
Moo
 
NEXTSTRAIN....folks, multiple introductions shows prevalence.


Four new genomes from Chile were shared by @ispch Castillo and show multiple introduction events into Chile. auspice 2/4 Nextstrain on Twitter

Four new genomes from Ireland were shared by @nvrlucdireland and show multiple introductions, but primarily from the emerging European clade. auspice 3/4 Nextstrain on Twitter

Three new genomes from Minnesota were shared by @mnhealth and have two that group with emerging Washington State outbreak clade and one that groups more closely with European viruses. auspice 4/4 Nextstrain on Twitter

Nextstrain on Twitter
 
They all need to be candid, like MI & OH, imo.
Our Governor is keen on twice daily updates but always the “social distance, but still go out & wash your hands, but stay home if sick, don’t go to your doctor. ....”.
How sick is one allowed to get before one can go to ones doctor?
 
View attachment 238319
So, in a week our numbers could be this or higher?!
Moo
Those numbers are only those who were tested. OH has 15 official cases, but they say there is at least 100,000 infected.
In other words, those numbers aren't telling you how many infected people there actually are.
If OH has 100,000, how many are in Ca, TX and Wa?
 
Is there any reason men in white hazmat suites head to toe and black masks were walking through our school today? We have no known cases at school but 3 confirmed in our city and we just closed officially at 4 but library/dining hall/gym?! / dorms and some retail dining are open for our international students as we have many.
Just was weird to randomly see. And honestly kinda scary.

Eta we now have our 5th case. I know it’s not a lot to most in comparison but we aren’t a hugggge area. I mean we aren’t a village but it’s increasing.
Region of Waterloo Public Health confirms a fifth case of COVID-19 in the region.
 
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