Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #49

[otto]

Protestors demand an IMMEDIATE opening to all businesses.
Linking to Minnesota stay at home (requested from #48):
I live in MN so I know the restrictions. Link at bottom.

<respectfully snipped>

Permissible activities during the stay at home order include:

• Funerals, provided that the gathering consists of no more than 10 attendees and the space utilized allows for social distancing (six feet spacing between people). Venues should make accommodations for remote attendance, if possible, for others. Individuals who are at high risk from COVID-19 are strongly encouraged to attend remotely."

In effect until May 13.
#StayHomeMN FAQ / Office of Governor Tim Walz and Lt. Governor Peggy Flanagan

Demand for funerals? China's crematoriums were burning 24/7. Italy, Spain, the USA have admitted that people died and freezer trucks were loaded. Where would the bodies be stored when there aren't enough places to put the sick living?

Do these people not read the news, imagine a conspiracy, demand that their rights are more important than democratic law, have nothing better to do than demand a funeral, risking transmission, when there are no caskets, 6' under burial plots, funeral directors and undertakers due to the virus?

 

[musicaljoke]

Interesting parallel timelines between SARS and SARS-Covid19. Was the virus dormant this entire time, waiting to emerge as a stronger organism?

The Journal, Nature, which is the most highly respected, peer-reviewed scientific journal in the world, has a weighty article about the transmission of SARS Covid19 to humans.

The proximal origin of SARS-CoV-2

"SARS-CoV-2 [also referred to as HCoV-19] is the seventh coronavirus known to infect humans; SARS-CoV, MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 can cause severe disease, whereas HKU1, NL63, OC43 and 229E are associated with mild symptoms6. Here we review what can be deduced about the origin of SARS-CoV-2 from comparative analysis of genomic data. We offer a perspective on the notable features of the SARS-CoV-2 genome and discuss scenarios by which they could have arisen.

"Our analyses clearly show that SARS-CoV-2 is not a laboratory construct or a purposefully manipulated virus."

 

[otto]

I think some people are getting the wrong idea about what some of the protestors are trying to say.

I don't know anyone who is saying 'let's not have social distancing, let's not take precautions.'
For example:
Thousands protest Michigan governor's social distance order

Four sheriffs in the northwestern Lower Peninsula called Whitmer’s orders a “vague framework of emergency laws” that are frustrating citizens. Leelanau County Sheriff Mike Borkovich said people don’t understand why they can’t take a child fishing in a motorboat but they can use a kayak.
...

The anger seemed to be about the way the governor made up her kind of haphazard regulations.

For example, the governor forbids citizens to purchase vegetable seeds or vegetable plants. Those things are there, in open stores, but are not able to be purchased because the governor says so.

JMO

Water reservoirs typically don't allow motor operated boats. Was this in the works before the virus? If preventing motor boats on some waterways protects drinking water supply, all is well.

Banning the sale of seeds is a bit bizarre. Can they be ordered online, or is the sale of gardening necessities banned? Can they be ordered online from other countries?

Trudeau is putting money into agriculture and recommending that people think about planting gardens. Perhaps he's just being good natured and positive, and perhaps he is worried about the supply chain.

 

[katydid23]

Water reservoirs typically don't allow motor operated boats. Was this in the works before the virus? If preventing motor boats on some waterways protects drinking water supply, all is well.

Banning the sale of seeds is a bit bizarre. Can they be ordered online, or is the sale of gardening necessities banned? Can they be ordered online from other countries?

Trudeau is putting money into agriculture and recommending that people think about planting gardens. Perhaps he's just being good natured and positive, and perhaps he is worried about the supply chain.

NO, this is in lakes where boats have always been allowed.

Maybe they can be ordered from other countries, I don't know. But it doesn't help our economic y any to do so.

Just imagine the frustration and annoyance to be standing inside a store, 2 feet away from the wall of seed packets, and be told you cannot 'legally' purchase the seeds. IT MAKES NO SENSE.

As you say, we should be concerned with the supply chain in the future. Wouldn't it be nice if many families had their own fresh produce already? Even some to share with neighbours?

 

[tresir2012]

Was it Immanuel Kant who discussed respect the autonomy of others? Simply put, that means everyone can do whatever they want as long as it does not infringe on the rights of others. Autonomy without respect is to "pursue a course of action in one's life, often regardless of any particular moral content."

Autonomy | Internet Encyclopedia of Philosophy

People can protest as long as they don't infringe on the rights of others, but I draw the line at sanctioned protests at the funeral of a LGTBQ stranger because he is LGTBQ. Similarly, with the virus, people who gather in groups of more than 5 are increasing the probability for transmission of the virus. The Ro (R-not) for this virus is 2-3 people, at a minimum. That means for every infected person, 2-3 others will be infected after minimal contact. Of those, based on China stats, 20% of all ages will be hospitalized.

Self-isolation reduces the probability of transmission, easing the strain on hospitals and health systems. I suppose, eventually, everyone will be exposed and the plan is to ensure that necessary health services are available as it ripples through global societies. Everyone, even asymptomatic people, have a responsibility to reduce and stop the transmission of the virus.

It is important to respect the autonomy of others, especially in the time of plague.

Have you got a link to the China stats for 20% hospitalized of those infected?

 

[otto]

The Journal, Nature, which is the most highly respected, peer-reviewed scientific journal in the world, has a weighty article about the transmission of SARS Covid19 to humans.

The proximal origin of SARS-CoV-2

"SARS-CoV-2 [also referred to as HCoV-19] is the seventh coronavirus known to infect humans; SARS-CoV, MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 can cause severe disease, whereas HKU1, NL63, OC43 and 229E are associated with mild symptoms6. Here we review what can be deduced about the origin of SARS-CoV-2 from comparative analysis of genomic data. We offer a perspective on the notable features of the SARS-CoV-2 genome and discuss scenarios by which they could have arisen. Our analyses clearly show that SARS-CoV-2 is not a laboratory construct or a purposefully manipulated virus."

I have posted a graph with mutations of MERS, SARS and SARS-Covid19, identifying the virus is a mutation and not manufactured. In many ways, it should be more frightening that this virus mutated and navigated us in ways that we could not imagine.

 

[otto]

Have you got a link to the China stats for 20% hospitalized of those infected?

This was published Mar 12, 2020
Redirecting

"Estimates will increase if a longer delay between onset of illness and death is considered. A recent time-delay adjusted estimation indicates that mortality rate of COVID-19 could be as high as 20% in Wuhan, the epicentre of the outbreak.(6) These findings show that the current figures might underestimate the potential threat of COVID-19 in symptomatic patients."​

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30195-X/fulltext

Hospitalised or dead.

 

[otto]

NO, this is in lakes where boats have always been allowed.

Maybe they can be ordered from other countries, I don't know. But it doesn't help our economic y any to do so.

Just imagine the frustration and annoyance to be standing inside a store, 2 feet away from the wall of seed packets, and be told you cannot 'legally' purchase the seeds. IT MAKES NO SENSE.

As you say, we should be concerned with the supply chain in the future. Wouldn't it be nice if many families had their own fresh produce already? Even some to share with neighbours?

I saw a video of it - yellow crime tape blocking off the gardening section of the store. It was quite strange. Are stores hoarding gardening supplies?

It might not help the economy to buy foreign supplies, but if they are unavailable in your country, those without could order from anther state? Sounds like this odd decision is not widespread.

 

[tresir2012]

I think some people are getting the wrong idea about what some of the protestors are trying to say.

I don't know anyone who is saying 'let's not have social distancing, let's not take precautions.'
For example:
Thousands protest Michigan governor's social distance order

“The majority of demonstrators remained in their vehicles, and most of those who were on foot were practicing social distancing,” Banner said.

Four sheriffs in the northwestern Lower Peninsula called Whitmer’s orders a “vague framework of emergency laws” that are frustrating citizens. Leelanau County Sheriff Mike Borkovich said people don’t understand why they can’t take a child fishing in a motorboat but they can use a kayak.

“We’re trying to keep the peace with people. ... The economy is coming apart in northern Michigan. People are upset,” Borkovich told The Associated Press. “People are frantic to get back to work. They have been very edgy.”



The anger seemed to be about the way the governor made up her kind of haphazard regulations.

For example, the governor forbids citizens to purchase vegetable seeds or vegetable plants. Those things are there, in open stores, but are not able to be purchased because the governor says so.

But this is the proper time to plant garden seeds, right now. And because of the pandemic, many people feel they should start having an alternate food source in the immediate future. And they have plenty of time to prepare a garden right now.

So they ARE allowed to go into the hardware store or the box store to purchase some items, but they have to look at the tomato plants and seeds, and walk past, for some arbitrary decision by one woman. And she has not been able to say specifically WHY no one is allowed to buy veggie seeds now.

I cannot see the harm in allowing people to do that. The store is open, the cashiers are there, the citizens are there buying other items, so why not allow them to start gardens now?

The same thing with people being arrested or ticketed for being in their own cars, in a church parking lot, watching a livestream of a church service on a huge screen. WHY can't they sit in their cars and watch the service?

People are feeling that many of the rules are arbitrary and needlessly oppressive.

A father ticketed for playing catch in his front yard with his 2 kids? Is that necessary?

The protestors are not saying they don't want to flatten the curve. But they want some consideration in how this will be done. Why can a boater be allowed to take their kayak out on the lake but not allowed to take their kids out in a small fishing boat, to try and catch food?

Why can they buy liquor but not tomato seeds?

I think these are valid questions.

We want our economy to keep running, so why can't people purchase gardening supplies, or paint or tools to work on their property while they are locked down for 8 weeks? Seems it would greatly benefit the community in a few ways.

And if the customers wear masks and gloves they will not be putting others at any more risk than they do when purchasing food or medicines. JMO

This happened in the UK for a bit until the government clarified that if the shop was open for essential items then you could still buy the other items in the store. The police were also a bit OTT on some things like the front garden issue till that was clarified also. Hopefully, this governor will change the seed purchase policy and look at the other items that are being protested against.

 

[katydid23]

I saw a video of it - yellow crime tape blocking off the gardening section of the store. It was quite strange. Are stores hoarding gardening supplies?

It might not help the economy to buy foreign supplies, but if they are unavailable in your country, those without could order from anther state? Sounds like this odd decision is not widespread.

They are not unavailable in our country.

But that is not the point. The point many of those protestors is trying to make is that it is unfair and unnecessary for a governor to make such odd pronouncements and then IGNORE the citizens who question the decision.

Americans may be quirky about their Bill of Rights but we do hold it dear. No one has a problem working together to try and beat this virus. But that should not include being ordered to follow silly unnecessary rules 'just because' someone says so.

To be told you cannot sit in your car in a church parking lot to listen to the sermon, seems irrational and oppressive. To be told you can buy liquor or lottery tickets but not vegetable seeds or sewing supplies is ridiculous, and many are protesting to make their feelings about it known.

 

[otto]

They are not unavailable in our country.

But that is not the point. The point many of those protestors is trying to make is that it is unfair and unnecessary for a governor to make such odd pronouncements and then IGNORE the citizens who question the decision.

Americans may be quirky about their Bill of Rights but we do hold it dear. No one has a problem working together to try and beat this virus. But that should not include being ordered to follow silly unnecessary rules 'just because' someone says so.

To be told you cannot sit in your car in a church parking lot to listen to the sermon, seems irrational and oppressive. To be told you can buy liquor or lottery tickets but not vegetable seeds or sewing supplies is ridiculous, and many are protesting to make their feelings about it known.

Canadians have to live with their decision. They elected Justin Trudeau, son of a previous Prime Minister, and 2nd round gave him a minority government, meaning he is accountable going forward. It sucks, but we're stuck with our democratic decisions and we have to respect that this was the group decision.

It sounds like the silly rules are local, something that governors have to get right?

Sitting in a car in a church parking lot is weird, especially if a bunch of people do it at the same time. Think about pre-virus, it's weird.

People can use technology to access their sermon and they should stop mass parking at churches. It's not really normal. They have to adapt to the paradigm shift.

 

[astheworldfallsdown]

Capt Tom to be guest of honour at hospital opening

A 99-year-old war veteran who raised an incredible £25m for the NHS is to be guest of honour at the opening of a Nightingale hospital in Harrogate.

Captain Tom Moore originally aimed to raise £1,000 for NHS Charities Together by completing 100 laps of his garden before his 100th birthday.

The veteran, who was born in Keighley, West Yorkshire, will appear via video link at the opening on Tuesday.

He said it was an honour and a chance to thank NHS workers directly.

Capt Tom, who lives in Marston Moretaine in Bedfordshire, said: "I am still amazed by the amount of kindness and generosity from the UK public who continue to give despite it being an uncertain time for many.

"I think the amount raised demonstrates just how much we all value the dedication and sacrifices made by our NHS workers. I have fought during a war and they are now fighting in a war too."

NHS Charities Together said it was "truly inspired and humbled" by his efforts.

 

[tresir2012]

Reposting link for @10ofRods


How deadly is the coronavirus?

"For example, an 18-year-old in Coventry tested positive for coronavirus the day before he died and was reported as its youngest victim at the time.

But the hospital subsequently released a statement saying his death had been due to a separate "significant" health condition and not connected to the virus.

There are, however, other cases, including health workers, where people have died with no known health conditions.

The Office for National Statistics has tried to shed light on this. It looked at nearly 4,000 deaths in England and Wales during March.

There were two main findings. Firstly, the virus was the cause of the majority of deaths, not other factors.

But secondly, nine in 10 did have pre-existing illnesses, such as heart disease and respiratory problems that put them at heightened risk of death anyway."

 

[musicaljoke]

I think some people are getting the wrong idea about what some of the protestors are trying to say.

I don't know anyone who is saying 'let's not have social distancing, let's not take precautions.'
For example:
Thousands protest Michigan governor's social distance order

“The majority of demonstrators remained in their vehicles, and most of those who were on foot were practicing social distancing,” Banner said.

Four sheriffs in the northwestern Lower Peninsula called Whitmer’s orders a “vague framework of emergency laws” that are frustrating citizens. Leelanau County Sheriff Mike Borkovich said people don’t understand why they can’t take a child fishing in a motorboat but they can use a kayak.

“We’re trying to keep the peace with people. ... The economy is coming apart in northern Michigan. People are upset,” Borkovich told The Associated Press. “People are frantic to get back to work. They have been very edgy.”



The anger seemed to be about the way the governor made up her kind of haphazard regulations.

For example, the governor forbids citizens to purchase vegetable seeds or vegetable plants. Those things are there, in open stores, but are not able to be purchased because the governor says so.

But this is the proper time to plant garden seeds, right now. And because of the pandemic, many people feel they should start having an alternate food source in the immediate future. And they have plenty of time to prepare a garden right now.

So they ARE allowed to go into the hardware store or the box store to purchase some items, but they have to look at the tomato plants and seeds, and walk past, for some arbitrary decision by one woman. And she has not been able to say specifically WHY no one is allowed to buy veggie seeds now.

I cannot see the harm in allowing people to do that. The store is open, the cashiers are there, the citizens are there buying other items, so why not allow them to start gardens now?

The same thing with people being arrested or ticketed for being in their own cars, in a church parking lot, watching a livestream of a church service on a huge screen. WHY can't they sit in their cars and watch the service?

People are feeling that many of the rules are arbitrary and needlessly oppressive.

A father ticketed for playing catch in his front yard with his 2 kids? Is that necessary?

The protestors are not saying they don't want to flatten the curve. But they want some consideration in how this will be done. Why can a boater be allowed to take their kayak out on the lake but not allowed to take their kids out in a small fishing boat, to try and catch food?

Why can they buy liquor but not tomato seeds?

I think these are valid questions.

We want our economy to keep running, so why can't people purchase gardening supplies, or paint or tools to work on their property while they are locked down for 8 weeks? Seems it would greatly benefit the community in a few ways.

And if the customers wear masks and gloves they will not be putting others at any more risk than they do when purchasing food or medicines. JMO

Refusing to allow people to plant their gardens is probably the most counter-productive policy I am aware of. I hope this gov'r changes that ruling quickly, before much needed greenhouse plants end up going to the compost pile.

Greenhouses and nurseries can easily sell their seeds and plants by telephone order and curbside pickup.

 

[tresir2012]

Canadians have to live with their decision. They elected Justin Trudeau, son of a previous Prime Minister, and 2nd round gave him a minority government, meaning he is accountable going forward. It sucks, but we're stuck with our democratic decisions and we have to respect that this was the group decision.

It sounds like the silly rules are local, something that governors have to get right?

Sitting in a car in a church parking lot is weird, especially if a bunch of people do it at the same time. Think about pre-virus, it's weird.

People can use technology to access their sermon and they should stop mass parking at churches. It's not really normal. They have to adapt to the paradigm shift.

So they can mass park to shop but not listen to a sermon. That appears to be the dichotomy. Shopping is essential but religious observance is not. Are drive in movies still open? Presumably not as drive in movies are non essential. I don't have an answer but hopefully the governor does.

 

[otto]

Reposting link for @10ofRods


How deadly is the coronavirus?

"For example, an 18-year-old in Coventry tested positive for coronavirus the day before he died and was reported as its youngest victim at the time.

But the hospital subsequently released a statement saying his death had been due to a separate "significant" health condition and not connected to the virus.

There are, however, other cases, including health workers, where people have died with no known health conditions.

The Office for National Statistics has tried to shed light on this. It looked at nearly 4,000 deaths in England and Wales during March.

There were two main findings. Firstly, the virus was the cause of the majority of deaths, not other factors.

But secondly, nine in 10 did have pre-existing illnesses, such as heart disease and respiratory problems that put them at heightened risk of death anyway."

BBM: "virus was the cause of the majority of deaths, not other factors."

It seems that many people (20% ?), of all ages, have an undiagnosed weakness after infection even though families claim there was no pre-existing illness/condition. It looks like people who have been infected do have a secondary illness after recovery, such as acute respiratory distress syndrome.

 

[tresir2012]

BBM: "virus was the cause of the majority of deaths, not other factors."

It seems that many people (20% ?), of all ages, have an undiagnosed weakness after infection even though families claim there was no pre-existing illness/condition. It looks like people who have been infected do have a secondary illness after recovery, such as acute respiratory distress syndrome.

Those figures I posted did not mention recovery statistics or pre existing conditions in those who have recovered so I can't really comment.

The article does say that some of those over 80 would have died anyway under normal circumstances. See below.


"

The most recent data goes up to the start of April.

It shows in the week ending 3 April there were 16,000 deaths - 6,000 more than could be expected at this time of the year when the number of deaths normally starts to fall with winter over.

This is the highest death number since these figures were first published in 2005, more than the previous peak seen during the bad flu outbreak of 2015.

Not all these extra deaths were down to coronavirus, but a significant number were.

What we do not know is what will happen to these numbers in the future and whether in a few months time deaths will drop below expected levels.

If that happened, it would suggest coronavirus has brought forward deaths that you would expect to happen over the course of the next year.

Is the virus bringing forward deaths by a few months?
Every year, about 600,000 people in the UK die. And the frail and elderly are most at risk, just as they are if they have coronavirus.

Nearly 10% of people aged over 80 will die in the next year, Prof Sir David Spiegelhalter at the University of Cambridge points out, and the risk of them dying if infected with coronavirus is almost exactly the same.

That does not mean there will be no extra deaths - but, Sir David says, there will be "a substantial overlap".

"Many people who die of Covid [the disease caused by coronavirus] would have died anyway within a short period," he says.

Knowing exactly how many is impossible to tell at this stage. "

 

[otto]

Refusing to allow people to plant their gardens is probably the most counter-productive policy I am aware of. I hope this gov'r changes that ruling quickly, before much needed greenhouse plants end up going to the compost pile.

Greenhouses and nurseries can easily sell their seeds and plants by telephone order and curbside pickup.

Pretty sure I heard Trudeau recently announce investment in agriculture and advise Canadians to think about planting a garden on Victoria Day. Maybe Trudeau can encourage the impressive Canadian cannabis industry to produce food?

I'm of the opinion that the agriculture industry should be supported during a pandemic - if only to include all possible outcomes in food supply and supply chain.

 

[katydid23]

Canadians have to live with their decision. They elected Justin Trudeau, son of a previous Prime Minister, and 2nd round gave him a minority government, meaning he is accountable going forward. It sucks, but we're stuck with our democratic decisions and we have to respect that this was the group decision.

It sounds like the silly rules are local, something that governors have to get right?

Sitting in a car in a church parking lot is weird, especially if a bunch of people do it at the same time. Think about pre-virus, it's weird.

People can use technology to access their sermon and they should stop mass parking at churches. It's not really normal. They have to adapt to the paradigm shift.

There were a lot of elderly people there who do not have technology or understand it well enough to use it now.

It may seem weird to sit in a parking lot with other cars, but no different than a drive in movie, which is not weird. And the sermon was being played on the radio, so people listened to it in their cars. And they could 'congregate' with their friends and neighbours, while inside the safety of their own cars.

And it is not 'dangerous' for people to sit in their own cars and watch a movie screen of a sermon. So why should they be ticketed and fined?

It just seems like some governors are being petty and not being strategic in their rule making. JMO

 

[musicaljoke]

Have you got a link to the China stats for 20% hospitalized of those infected?

Because this is a brand new virus, all countries are learning about it as it happens. Data gathered early in the outbreak is showing some changes over time. At the outset of this pandemic, asymptomatic cases hadn't yet been discovered. In fact, we still don't have a good idea of how many people are asymptomatic.

If you look at the current closed/recovered cases vs deaths, it shows an international average of about 80% recovered and 20% ended in death. Some countries, including the US, show a death rate that is nearly double the international average. If the only people diagnosed with CoV19 are those who are sick, then it's very easy to understand that 20% will require hospitalisation, not only in China, but internationally as well.

Coronavirus Update (Live): 2,345,326 Cases and 161,191 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer