Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #57

[tresir2012]

Coronavirus may ‘burn out naturally’ before any vaccine is developed, former WHO chief claims

Coronavirus may ‘burn out naturally’ before any vaccine is developed, former WHO chief claims

Andy Gregory
2 hrs ago
...
Coronavirus could “burn out naturally before any vaccine is developed”, according to a former World Health Organisation chief.

“We are seeing a roughly similar pattern everywhere – I suspect we have more immunity than estimated,” Professor Karol Sikora, who previously directed the WHO’s cancer programme, said on Saturday.

“We need to keep slowing the virus, but it could be petering out by itself. It is my opinion that this is a feasible scenario.”


His hopeful comments come days after a new study in the International Journal of Clinical Practice, using local authority “R” transmission rate data, estimated some 19 million people are “likely” to have already contracted the virus in the UK.

I do hope his estimate is right. How could we know? Unless AB tests are accurate I cannot see how this can be confirmed.

 

[tresir2012]

Football club apologises for 'sex dolls' in stands

I really can't believe this report but LOL.

What happened at the match?
On Sunday, FC Seoul played their first home match of the K League season.

The ground was empty - one of many measures designed to prevent a Covid-19 outbreak.

So before the match, a company called Dalcom offered to fill some of the empty seats, and the club agreed.

In total, there were 30 mannequins - 28 of them female, and two of them male.

However, fans watching online noticed that some of the mannequins looked more like sex dolls - and some were advertising x-rated websites - leading to the club apologising on Instagram and Facebook.

More at link.

 

[tresir2012]

It's great to see some good news about the virus in Europe.

Coronavirus updates: Italy and Spain ease lockdown as death tolls hit new low - BBC News

Summary

1. More European countries are relaxing lockdown restrictions on Monday, with bars and restaurants reopening in Italy
2. The UK records 170 new deaths - the lowest since 24 March, the day after lockdown was introduced
3. In Italy, the number was 145, the lowest since 9 March
4. And in Spain, it was 87 - the first time in two months it was below 100
5. The WHO's decision-making body is set to discuss an investigation into the handling of the pandemic
6. Japan enters first recession since 2015, with 0.9% GDP drop in first quarter
7. The mayor of Brazil's biggest city, Sao Paulo, warns its health system is close to collapse
8. Globally, there are 4.7m confirmed cases and 315,000 deaths

 

[tresir2012]

Hospitals in Brazil's largest city 'near collapse'

Live reporting link for Brazil. 16k deaths now.

 

[Rocco]

Which opened up states are going back up? I would like to monitor them as UK is partially opening up a bit.

Just to point out, where you are quoting the deaths per 100,000 I think you must mean deaths per million right? Big difference obviously.

Michigan has 10 million residents and has had 4700 deaths so that's 47 deaths per 100,000
Georgia has 10.6 million residents and has had 1500 deaths so that's 14 deaths per 100,000
Which is what she stated.

 

[katydid23]

"Sweden is unlikely to avoid the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic, even as it has avoided an official lockdown, analysts told the Financial Times."
Sweden's economy likely won't benefit from its decision to avoid a lockdown, according to analysts

"It is too early to say that we would do better than others," Christina Nyman, a former official at Riksbank, Sweden's national bank, told the Financial Times. "In the end, we think Sweden will end up more or less the same."

David Oxley, a senior economist at Capital Economics, told the newspaper that economic "activity in Sweden is grim, maybe not as grim as elsewhere, but it is still unprecedented declines."


[Sounds like it's too early to say that Sweden won't benefit from avoiding the total lockdown. ]

[ And if they reach herd immunity soon and avoid a harsh 2nd wave, the will benefit from their initial strategy.]

 

[tresir2012]

'Hundreds' breach Covid-19 restrictions in parks

I knew this would happen. Eating fish and chips in public.

"On Saturday night there were people having a party on the tables in the middle of the market place, drinking wine and eating fish and chips.

"Our locals are absolutely incensed."

 

[tresir2012]

"It is too early to say that we would do better than others," Christina Nyman, a former official at Riksbank, Sweden's national bank, told the Financial Times. "In the end, we think Sweden will end up more or less the same."

David Oxley, a senior economist at Capital Economics, told the newspaper that economic "activity in Sweden is grim, maybe not as grim as elsewhere, but it is still unprecedented declines."


[Sounds like it's too early to say that Sweden won't benefit from avoiding the total lockdown. ]

[ And if they reach herd immunity soon and avoid a harsh 2nd wave, the will benefit from their initial strategy.]

It is too early to say yet I'm saying it anyway, as that is why we are on here to share opinions, but avoiding a lockdown is benefit enough IMO. Any other benefit is a bonus.

 

[katydid23]

Both her post and yours have lots of good information-- people are afraid to go to the hospital, to the point that some people may have died from stroke and heart attacks
at home, due to those fears--- i know i am afraid to go anywhere near a hospital and
hope i dont have to.

My older brother was almost one of those, who almost waited too long, even though he was having chest pains. He kept telling his wife that it was heartburn, but she told me she got really angry at him, which she never usually does---and she demanded he go to the ER.

Sure enough, they took him right into surgery, and had thought he might need bypass, but he was just given a stent, and sent home the next day.

 

[katydid23]

Yes, the data suggest that in the hardest hit states, rates really are coming down, fairly steadily. There will be bumps in the road. But the case rates are going up in the states that reopening, of course (to be expected). We don't know how quickly they'll go up. We have to keep in mind that this disease grows exponentially. Look at the church in Butte County, California. They jumped the gun, decided to have a Mother's Day church service, and 180 new cases resulted from just that single 2 hour event.

Having someone breathing, while closer to you than 6 meters, it takes about 14 minutes to gather enough virions in your membranes (especially your eyes) to contract the disease.

And while certainly, this is an age-graded disease, the median age is lower in the US and UK than elsewhere, due to underlying conditions. So, in states where the rates of underlying conditions (like diabetes) are already high, there will be higher mortality. 25% of the CoVid dead in the US are diabetics, and the age range for them is much different than for people-at-large.

So let's say we have a long tail of (optimistically) 1000 deaths per day. That's 250 diabetics per day. If 250 people were being hit as pedestrians per day, we'd be shocked and call for major changes in street design and so forth. We'd warn people not to cross the street until the problem was solved.

And when a person decided to cross the street, the ensuing death would be only theirs - not impacting health or mortality for the non-crossers (so CoVid entails even more personal responsibility than car driving or walking across intersections).

1000 deaths per day is 30,000 deaths per month (approximately the entire number of ANNUAL deaths in car accidents, pedestrians included).

At what point will it be "few enough" deaths? 15,000 a month is still a lot. It would remain the leading healthcare nightmare in the US for years, pushing other illnesses to the bottom of the list and reshaping how preventive medicine works and which doctors stay in business.

BTW, many jurisdictions don't report deaths on the weekends (my county doesn't). It takes 3-7 days for symptoms to show up, which is what prompts people to go get tested and the case rate to go up. States have barely reopened.

It's entirely too early to make any claims about reopening. But I will say that I'm very interested in overall mortality rates, in the end. Georgia's rate looks to be about 14 deaths per 100,000 residents - so if it were on the international list, by itself, that would be very low. I hope that helps contextualize their eagerness to reopen.

Michigan's is closer to 50 in 100,000. Concerning.

I've posted links about these topics before. The data on deaths per place are publicly available and posted many times a day here (worldometer is a good source or just Google "Covid _______ state name."

But one can easily see how even Michigan pales in comparison to places with ~500 deaths per 100,000. US as a whole is 260 per 100,000 last time I checked. If we backed New York out of that data, it would be ~125, IIRC.

Are you sure about this part?:

"Look at the church in Butte County, California. They jumped the gun, decided to have a Mother's Day church service, and 180 new cases resulted from just that single 2 hour event."


The article that was linked here said that there were 180 people asked to quarantine, because ONE church goer had been found to be positive for CV when they attended the services.

So I do not think 180 have been infected...I will try and find an update....


ETA:
Over 180 people exposed to COVID-19 in Butte County after church service on Mother's Day
Over 180 people exposed to COVID-19 in Butte County after church service on Mother's Day
PALERMO, Calif. — Over 180 people were exposed to COVID-19 in Butte County after a church service was held on Mother's Day, according to health officials.

Butte County Public Health said in a news release on Friday the infected person received their positive COVID-19 diagnosis the day after they attended service and is now at home in isolation.

The church PBFC, also known as Palermo Bible Family Church, chose to open its doors despite rules banning gatherings of any size.

Since the positive test was announced by health officials, the church has decided to suspend all in-person services and go back to a virtual model.



180 in quarantine after person with coronavirus attends Mother’s Day church service in California


A day after attending an in-person service at an unidentified Butte County church last Sunday, one of the worshipers tested positive for coronavirus, health officials announced Friday.

At least 180 people attended the church service, which broke the state’s mandates about group gatherings.
180 in quarantine after person with coronavirus attends Mother’s Day church service in California

 

[tresir2012]

Michigan has 10 million residents and has had 4700 deaths so that's 47 deaths per 100,000
Georgia has 10.6 million residents and has had 1500 deaths so that's 14 deaths per 100,000
Which is what she stated.

This bit

"But one can easily see how even Michigan pales in comparison to places with ~500 deaths per 100,000. US as a whole is 260 per 100,000 last time I checked. If we backed New York out of that data, it would be ~125, IIRC."

US deaths are 275 per million not per 100,000.

Just making sure facts stated are actually correct. TY for clarifying the Michigan and Georgia numbers were correct.

 

[astheworldfallsdown]

UK adds loss of smell to coronavirus symptoms list

Loss of smell or taste have been added to the UK's list of coronavirus symptoms that people should look out for and self-isolate with.

Until now, only a fever and cough were triggers for people to shut themselves away in self-isolation in case they had and could spread the infection.

Ear, nose and throat doctors had been warning for weeks that more symptoms should be included.

Scientific advisers told the government to update the advice.

If you or someone you live with has any of these symptoms - a new, continuous cough, fever or loss of smell or taste (also called anosmia) - the advice is stay at home for seven days to stop the risk of giving coronavirus to others.

Cough and loss of smell or taste can persist after seven days. You do not need to keep self-isolating after seven days, unless you have a high temperature or are unwell, says the advice.

Loss of smell and taste may still be signs of other respiratory infections, such as the common cold. Experts say fever and cough remain important symptoms of coronavirus to look out for.

 

[tresir2012]

Are you sure about this part?:

"Look at the church in Butte County, California. They jumped the gun, decided to have a Mother's Day church service, and 180 new cases resulted from just that single 2 hour event."


The article that was linked here said that there were 180 people asked to quarantine, because ONE church goer had been found to be positive for CV when they attended the services.

So I do not think 180 have been infected...I will try and find an update....


ETA:
Over 180 people exposed to COVID-19 in Butte County after church service on Mother's Day
Over 180 people exposed to COVID-19 in Butte County after church service on Mother's Day
PALERMO, Calif. — Over 180 people were exposed to COVID-19 in Butte County after a church service was held on Mother's Day, according to health officials.

Butte County Public Health said in a news release on Friday the infected person received their positive COVID-19 diagnosis the day after they attended service and is now at home in isolation.

The church PBFC, also known as Palermo Bible Family Church, chose to open its doors despite rules banning gatherings of any size.

Since the positive test was announced by health officials, the church has decided to suspend all in-person services and go back to a virtual model.



180 in quarantine after person with coronavirus attends Mother’s Day church service in California


A day after attending an in-person service at an unidentified Butte County church last Sunday, one of the worshipers tested positive for coronavirus, health officials announced Friday.

At least 180 people attended the church service, which broke the state’s mandates about group gatherings.
180 in quarantine after person with coronavirus attends Mother’s Day church service in California

According to this link Butte County only had 22 cases and no deaths as of yesterday.

California Coronavirus: 80,265 Cases and 3,289 Deaths (COVID-19 ) - Worldometer

 

[katydid23]

As coronavirus testing expands, a new problem arises: Not enough people to test — The Washington Post

You can’t just drive up and get tested. You have to telemedicine your primary care doctor and go over your symptoms. If you don’t have almost every symptom - you don’t make the cut to get tested.

Some states have loosened those restrictions:

Another major hurdle: lingering confusion about who qualifies. In the earliest days of the outbreak, Americans were told that only the sickest and most vulnerable should get tested while others should stay home. Last month, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention relaxed its guidelines to offer tests to people without symptoms who are referred by local health departments or clinicians.

Some states have since relaxed their testing criteria dramatically. Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp (R) has encouraged “all Georgians, even if they are not experiencing symptoms, to schedule an appointment.” And Oklahoma Gov. Kevin Stitt (R) urged residents earlier this month to “call 2-1-1 and find a location close to you, even if you don’t have symptoms and you’re just curious.”

 

[Tillicum]

Are you sure about this part?:

"Look at the church in Butte County, California. They jumped the gun, decided to have a Mother's Day church service, and 180 new cases resulted from just that single 2 hour event."


The article that was linked here said that there were 180 people asked to quarantine, because ONE church goer had been found to be positive for CV when they attended the services.

So I do not think 180 have been infected...I will try and find an update....


ETA:
Over 180 people exposed to COVID-19 in Butte County after church service on Mother's Day
Over 180 people exposed to COVID-19 in Butte County after church service on Mother's Day
PALERMO, Calif. — Over 180 people were exposed to COVID-19 in Butte County after a church service was held on Mother's Day, according to health officials.

Butte County Public Health said in a news release on Friday the infected person received their positive COVID-19 diagnosis the day after they attended service and is now at home in isolation.

The church PBFC, also known as Palermo Bible Family Church, chose to open its doors despite rules banning gatherings of any size.

Since the positive test was announced by health officials, the church has decided to suspend all in-person services and go back to a virtual model.



180 in quarantine after person with coronavirus attends Mother’s Day church service in California


A day after attending an in-person service at an unidentified Butte County church last Sunday, one of the worshipers tested positive for coronavirus, health officials announced Friday.

At least 180 people attended the church service, which broke the state’s mandates about group gatherings.
180 in quarantine after person with coronavirus attends Mother’s Day church service in California

This will be interesting to follow. I'm really curious to see how many of the 180 exposed will actually get COVID-19.

 

[tmar]

As coronavirus testing expands, a new problem arises: Not enough people to test

As coronavirus testing expands, a new problem arises: Not enough people to test

Steve Thompson, Juliet Eilperin, Brady Dennis
7 hrs ago
...
Four months into the U.S. coronavirus outbreak, tests for the virus finally are becoming widely available, a crucial step toward lifting stay-at-home orders and safely returning to normal life. But while many states no longer report crippling supply shortages, a new problem has emerged: too few people lining up to get tested.
A Washington Post survey of governors’ offices and state health departments found at least a dozen states where testing capacity outstrips the supply of patients. Many have scrambled to make testing more convenient, especially for vulnerable communities, by setting up pop-up sites and developing apps that help assess symptoms, find free test sites and deliver quick results.

But the numbers, while rising, are well short of capacity — and far short of targets set by independent experts. Utah, for example, is conducting about 3,500 tests a day, a little more than a third of its 9,000-test maximum capacity, and health officials have erected highway billboards begging drivers to “GET TESTED FOR COVID-19.”
Why aren’t more people showing up? “Well, that’s the million-dollar question,” said Utah Health Department spokesman Tom Hudachko. “It could be simply that people don’t want to be tested. It could be that people feel like they don’t need to be tested. It could be that people are so mildly symptomatic that they’re just not concerned that having a positive lab result would actually change their course in any meaningful way.”

Experts say several factors may be preventing more people from seeking tests, including a lingering sense of scarcity, a lack of access in rural and underserved communities, concerns about cost, and skepticism about testing operations.

 

[tresir2012]

Pop up bike lanes caused by CV19.

How coronavirus is driving a revolution in travel

 

[katydid23]

Received a positive test result the day after he went to church?
Meaning he had the test prior to going and had symptoms.
Sigh

No, the article said he had no symptoms....

"Jacobsen said the person who tested positive the day after the service didn't have any symptoms when they went to church on Mother's Day.

Since the exposure at the church, anyone who attended the service has been ordered to self-quarantine. Officials are working on testing anyone who attended the service."
Over 180 people exposed to COVID-19 in Butte County after church service on Mother's Day

 

[nhmemorymaker]

Oh, but it's lovely attending church these days. I even watched myself play worship songs on my own Steinway. This morning I went in my nightie, and only regretted not getting dressed when it was time for the after-church zoom coffee time. Oops!

Thanks for the wonderful visual story!! Did you wear some high heels?

 

[nhmemorymaker]

No, the article said he had no symptoms....

"Jacobsen said the person who tested positive the day after the service didn't have any symptoms when they went to church on Mother's Day.

Since the exposure at the church, anyone who attended the service has been ordered to self-quarantine. Officials are working on testing anyone who attended the service."
Over 180 people exposed to COVID-19 in Butte County after church service on Mother's Day

So WHY and or HOW did he get tested, if no symptoms? I think I am missing something...