Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #57

[nhmemorymaker]

Yesterday, the US had 19,891 new cases of CoVid and 865 deaths, bringing total deaths for the US to almost 91,000 people.

Unfortunately, a lot of counties across the nation have stopped updating deaths on the weekend, so we'll see a need to smooth the data when today's figures are reported. I'm guessing the smoothed average for the past three days will be around 1000 deaths per day, maybe slightly less.

That brings us to 295 deaths per million in the USA. If we can stay at 800 deaths per day until the end of May, that's around 10,000 more deaths by June 1.

Coronavirus Update (Live): 4,864,623 Cases and 318,821 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer

Many factors affect the tail of a viral outbreak. We're seeing that people who had two negative tests can sometimes test positive again (very concerning). These are sailors who weren't declared "recovered" until they'd had two negative tests - but now they're shedding virus again. There are several other reports of this type, from Wuhan, Italy, France and elsewhere.

I wish they had provided the level of severity of symptoms these five had on the first round. There are still so many asymptomatic people out there who report positives.

 

[nhmemorymaker]

I think we all new this was going to happen......... with all that flooding of money going out. But it had to out fast so managing it be be equitable based on what it was replacing was just not feasible, imo.
I wish there had been some "public service announcements/discussions about this along the way...

and yet there are still so many people that cannot get through the dismal failing unemployment system in FL. The governor is blaming the former governor (Rick Scott, now Senator Scott) big time...and is going to be funding some huge investigation against Scott's role in designing and paying for said system.

I just wish they would get the dang system fixed!!! People have been frustrated beyond belief here.
oy vey.

 

[HongKongPhooey]

You know, almost everyone hubby and I have talked to thinks they've had it. There's a new antibody test site a few miles from here and I've been tempted to get tested but now I don't know if I want to spend the $65. If everyone who thinks they've had it really did, then some of us should be dead by now IMO.

Something that really concerns me though, of the many out there who think they've had it, are they taking less precautions?

No, I still take the same precautions. I stay home as much as possible and if I do go out, I dont touch things like elevator buttons. I wipe my hands with disinfectant wipes when I get to my car and then wipe the keys. I keep well away from others and havent seen my parents for 9 weeks. I dont want it again and I dont want to chance passing anything on.

The thing that changed for me is the fear. I thought if I got it, I might die. Or Mr HKP might die. When my son had it and reported breathing issues, I felt panicked. I do believe we probably have antibodies but until someone tells me, I proceed with caution. I still fear for my parents too but the fear has gone for myself.

Having said that, restaurants etc are a long way from being open here but I would not be going out to eat anytime soon. Or for a hair appointment. It worries me that people are acting like the battle is won

 

[HongKongPhooey]

I received the results of my coronavirus antibody test on Saturday. I posted some background last week on why I chose to get the test (italics)-

Just signed up for a coronavirus antibody test. Tomorrow at 11:45AM. $130. Couple of days turnaround, I think.
Why? I think I had coronavirus, and would put the odds at 75%. This would likely mean my wife and daughters had it as well since we have been together for 2 months.

My symptoms-

Late February, early March: I felt off for about two and half weeks, experiencing unusual fatigue. I got winded and a little weak going up two sets of stairs where I never did before. I felt like I was running at 50-75% energy. The first week I was at my desk and felt a very strong fatigue come on and also felt slightly feverish. I took my temperature the next day but it was normal. From then, I just had the fatigue and my light cough persisted, tapering back to normal in a couple of weeks. Now none of this is particularly pointing to CV, but I suspect the virus since these were symptoms I never had before- I recall thinking that at the time. It wasn't until a month ago that I tied this episode to possibly being coronavirus.

My boss/colleague at work also had a month long cough, weakness etc before my episode. He joked about probably infecting everyone (10) at work with a cold, but this was before coronavirus was thought to be a possibility in Massachusetts.

So hoping for a great outcome- a positive reading. I repost with my results when I receive them.

The antibody test I am getting is by Quest Diagnostics.

Massachusetts has been hit pretty hard so maybe here in eastern MA there are 10% people that are AB positive. So my test has a false positive rate of ~ 1.25%. So out of 100 tests, there would be 10 accurate positive and 1.25 false positives (for my example), an 11% error rate. For a positive result, I would also then have my wife take it because if she tested positive as well, the false positive total error would be ~1%.

The Definitive Guide to Antibody Tests: What They Do, Where to Get Them, and How Much They Cost

So I have the results, but a little more detail. In the last week, I talked to a colleague at our small company of 10 people. He reminded me that at the beginning of February, five of the employees attended Photonics West in San Francisco, the biggest optics trade show in the U.S., and maybe the world. Upon returning, the attendees (age) had these outcomes-

EC (24)- very sick for a month
JN (57)- very sick for two weeks
SC (25)- not sick, but his girlfriend was diagnosed with COVID-19
AM (25)- not sick
AZ (25)- not sick

Not attending, but sick in this time period as well, was myself and the president, both 57. After revisiting this info, I bumped up my odds of having had CV to 90%.

So the test results came back with the following diagnosis: Negative for coronavirus antibodies.

I feel gutted for you that you didnt get the result you hoped for, so sorry

 

[10ofRods]

I wish they had provided the level of severity of symptoms these five had on the first round. There are still so many asymptomatic people out there who report positives.

I wish we had that too. But the relevant thing for the rest of us is that people who once thought they were "through" this disease and no longer contagious are showing up contagious again.

I was thinking that having antibodies or having tested positive and then gotten through CoVid would mean the person, after a reasonable amount of time, would be safe to be around others - not passing it on.

Super concerning.

 

[nhmemorymaker]

Dr Seheult new video. He says that four of them were taken down and they're available at his main website. But I went to that website and they aren't there either... anyway today's video.

Please note, it's not that he is a conspiracy guy, it is that there are automated stuff this is taking stuff down all over the internet.

Moo

He shows a chart in this one that answers @CSIDreamer's question--- US 252/milllion.
He was comparing this to India's 2/million.

Think about how amazing this is when India is so crowded with over a billion people...

 

[CSIDreamer]

He shows a chart in this one that answers @CSIDreamer's question--- US 252/milllion.
He was comparing this to India's 2/million.

Think about how amazing this is when India is so crowded with over a billion people...

I really thought India would be decimated. Jmo

 

[HongKongPhooey]

I wish we had that too. But the relevant thing for the rest of us is that people who once thought they were "through" this disease and no longer contagious are showing up contagious again.

I was thinking that having antibodies or having tested positive and then gotten through CoVid would mean the person, after a reasonable amount of time, would be safe to be around others - not passing it on.

Super concerning.

Exactly.

And the thing that bothers me, if I sometimes feel "it" hasnt quite gone, two months' later (a random day where fatigue is immense, or the fact my son and I still havent regained a full sense of smell) does that mean its still active within me? And therefore potentially contagious? I dont understand enough about these things to feel reassured.

 

[HongKongPhooey]

I really thought India would be decimated. Jmo

So did I

 

[tresir2012]

No, when I typed in the post you responded to (about the 50 in Georgia) I meant per 100,000. I didn't have my bigger calculator, and I was rounding off at the 100,000 mark.

Florida is the state to watch today (I posted a link not too far back). Keep in mind that Florida is sunnier and hasn't been doing too badly. But it does have lots of elderly people, so we shall stay tuned.

I was also talking about the US figure but it has been addressed now thanks. I can follow the figures on worldometers for both the countries and the States themselves.
Which opened up states are going back up?

 

[10ofRods]

He shows a chart in this one that answers @CSIDreamer's question--- US 252/milllion.
He was comparing this to India's 2/million.

Think about how amazing this is when India is so crowded with over a billion people...

Well...it's possible that India has no real idea how many people have died of CoVid (or anything else). I know they try, in the big cities, especially. But it's really hard to get a handle on health situations in both India and Pakistan - just too many people, so few resources.

 

[10ofRods]

I was also talking about the US figure but it has been addressed now thanks. I can follow the figures on worldometers for both the countries and the States themselves.
Which opened up states are going back up?

According to today's NYT tally, there are 11:

Coronavirus in the U.S.: Latest Map and Case Count

(Scroll down a little - it's on the graphs). I was a little surprised it's now 11. I believe all 11 have various elements of "reopening" going on.

 

[CSIDreamer]

You may see increased costs when you get your bill at establishments like restaurants and hair salons, as many are adding a COVID-19 surcharge.

Check your bills: Some businesses are adding a COVID-19 surcharge

 

[SA55]

Hospitals, health care sector reel from COVID-19 damage

The financial damage to our healthcare system is devastating. I really hope it can bounce back, as I hope to be able to keep a job for next several years. Not to mention, I hope if and when I need a doctor, there's one available and still open.

 

[CSIDreamer]

I was also talking about the US figure but it has been addressed now thanks. I can follow the figures on worldometers for both the countries and the States themselves.
Which opened up states are going back up?

Indiana has partially opened up. Our % of positive tests is dropping. And our daily deaths are getting really low. What you want to look at with states opening up is their % of positive tests, availability of ICU beds. Jmo

ISDH - Novel Coronavirus: Indiana COVID-19 Dashboard

 

[tresir2012]

@nhmemorymaker

Thanks for the responses. I was really surprised about all the background in that article about Nicotine and the vagues nerve was it? I will try and follow the study. I am now wondering about China and India not having so many deaths because they smoke and also Germans still allow smoking in their bars so could that be a reason?

What was the Pepsid study? Please remind me?


"ha ha!! Did you used a Translater???"

No I didnt but I have never seen an article like that before. It is possible to understand it though. I don't know why it came up in my searches at all.

 

[tresir2012]

Indiana has partially opened up. Our % of positive tests is dropping. And our daily deaths are getting really low. What you want to look at with states opening up is their % of positive tests, availability of ICU beds. Jmo

ISDH - Novel Coronavirus: Indiana COVID-19 Dashboard

These would be the serious cases in the ICU beds right?

 

[CSIDreamer]

These would be the serious cases in the ICU beds right?

Yes. We have roughly 425 people in ICU due to Covid across the state.

 

[tresir2012]

According to today's NYT tally, there are 11:

Coronavirus in the U.S.: Latest Map and Case Count

(Scroll down a little - it's on the graphs). I was a little surprised it's now 11. I believe all 11 have various elements of "reopening" going on.

Could you copy paste that bit? It wants a subscription.

 

[TMAN2014]

snipped

You may see increased costs when you get your bill at establishments like restaurants and hair salons, as many are adding a COVID-19 surcharge.

Check your bills: Some businesses are adding a COVID-19 surcharge

The problem is many of the customers took pay cuts, lost jobs, lost retirement money, and the increased COVID surcharged might cost the businesses, if it is high enough to make a difference. All this stuff has a multiplier effect.