Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #69

[Snoods]

I should think that the medical experts at ground zero know what their capacity is and what they need.[/B] They are clearly concerned about the situation which is why they have made formal requests to FEMA.

As Margarita25 has already posted, there are a lot of articles coming out now detailing how close to capacity some counties are already getting.

Some examples:


Fox6News

Refrigerated trucks requested in Arizona, Texas as morgues reach capacity amid COVID-19 surge



KrisTV 6 News

COVID-19 spike overwhelms medical examiner's office



Texas Tribune

As Texas morgues fill up, refrigerator trucks are on the way in several counties



I think they are looking at the data and seeing worrying numbers. It's a good thing they're putting the call-out and trying to anticipate how bad it could get. I'm especially heartened by the counties that are working together to share the possible overflow.

I should think that the medical experts at ground zero know what their capacity is and what they need. They are clearly concerned about the situation which is why they have made formal requests to FEMA.

As Margarita25 has already posted, there are a lot of articles coming out now detailing how close to capacity some counties are already getting.

Some examples:


Fox6News

Refrigerated trucks requested in Arizona, Texas as morgues reach capacity amid COVID-19 surge



KrisTV 6 News

COVID-19 spike overwhelms medical examiner's office



Texas Tribune

As Texas morgues fill up, refrigerator trucks are on the way in several counties



I think they are looking at the data and seeing worrying numbers. It's a good thing they're putting the call-out and trying to anticipate how bad it could get. I'm especially heartened by the counties that are working together to share the possible overflow.

BBM Unfortunately the experts really don’t have any idea what they need. This is new territory for them. How many models have been incorrect? Many. How many emergency hospitals were built and never used? Many. How many covid predictions have been incorrect? Many. How many, now many, how many. They just don’t know, but I agree better safe than sorry.

 

[ZoriahNZ]

It's good to see an attempt at preparedness at the local level. Emergency plans being put into action. It's just a pity it's not happening at a federal level, in my opinion.

But I might just be biased, because the public health messaging, transparency, and actions taken by my country's government has been pretty consistent and based on scientific evidence for the most part.

An example of this is the public speech our Prime Minister made yesterday, when she was asked about what contingency plans are in place should an outbreak happen again in NZ.

Obviously we don't want to go into lockdown again, it would be a last resort. The focus would be on containing local clusters first.

Anyway, my point was that is nice to have a leader being fully communicative with the public about what the government plans to do to protect us.

Coronavirus: Alert levels localised, rather than nationwide lockdown, if Covid-19 community transmission re-emerges

 

[ZoriahNZ]

BBM Unfortunately the experts really don’t have any idea what they need. This is new territory for them. How many models have been incorrect? Many. How many emergency hospitals were built and never used? Many. How many covid predictions have been incorrect? Many. How many, now many, how many. They just don’t know, but I agree better safe than sorry.

Emergency hospitals being built and not used is a win. It means that the precautions being taken are working. The more prepared we are, the better the outcome. If masks and social distancing is adopted universally, then that reduces the spread, which reduces the need for more stringent measures. Lockdowns and stay at home orders have helped drastically slow transmission. So of course the worst case scenarios have not always panned out. Which is the whole reason why we took an action in the first place. By the way, most of the time the predictive models outline several scenarios from best to worst case. They are guidelines to help us figure out the best course of action.

The scientific method means that conclusions and predictions are adjusted over time when new data is discovered. At first it was assumed that covid-19 was a respiratory illness, it was only after many cases were studied that they discovered it was also vascular.

I disagree they don't know what they need. For medical examiners there is a finite amount of space where they can store bodies and they will know when that capacity is being stretched to the limit. Much more than politicians and bureaucrats would, at the very least.

 

[Bravo]

Closed border.

I'm not concerned either with the closed border. I support it. Sadly. My worry is for the people in the U.S. I also have Family in the U.S. Sister, BIL, Nieces, Nephews, Cousins and an Aunt.

 

[dixiegirl1035]

BBM Unfortunately the experts really don’t have any idea what they need. This is new territory for them. How many models have been incorrect? Many. How many emergency hospitals were built and never used? Many. How many covid predictions have been incorrect? Many. How many, now many, how many. They just don’t know, but I agree better safe than sorry.

Yes, the normal layperson just does not understand and get what a model and projections are. Each one of those had different conditions for different options. Many of us discussed in early threads this issue, and @JerseyGirl (whoa! there are two Jersey girls here.. one with an * to confuse me) and @margarita25 are good at trying to continue to update and educate us here, thanks.

Folks say they were wrong? Pffft. It's ignorance of the public as to what models are for. MOO.

Of course they were incorrect. Models are models, and they change over time. It was new, they did different scenarios and we are learning all the time. That is what science is! To build on new information and adjust.

Problem is, that communication for adjusting is having an issue, and some are still stuck on such as the first "it's not bad" it's.............well......... Folks mostly here get it I think vs. mainstream public who, for some reason, have issues with it that are personal to them.

I have to keep in mind that it's said that articles need to reach an 8th grade learning level. And I'm seeing such play out that some folks just don't (MOO) have the capacity to understand leading indicators/logrithmic growth (e.g. shut down BEFORE it gets to overwhelming) etc.

MOO

 

[tresir2012]

Community-Based Testing Sites for COVID-19

Just found this which is a way to find your nearest testing site in the states.

I just chose Texas as an example and this is what came up.

Texas

No-cost testing is available at select:

• CVS Health
• Kroger (eTrueNorth)
• Local independent pharmacies (Health Mart and eTrueNorth)
• Walgreens
• Walmart (eTrueNorth)

For local testing information,visit the Texas health department's website

HTH.

 

[SouthAussie]

It looked to me like the information they take is to assess needs. Jmo

That doesn't explain why the database is going to be closed to the public though.

CDC has been very transparent. If people want to know what the numbers are, how their state is doing, how their children's state is doing, they have that database to go to. One that is being run by the Centre for Disease Control.

This whole nightmare couldn't get more political if they tried.

Every western place I know of, the covid stats are released through a govt health dept database - because that is their job - the stats do not come via Parliament House.

Is the US public even going to get stats anymore? That is very unclear.
Do supporters of this not want to know what is going on in the US?
If no hard stats are publicly available, how 'safe' will people feel then?

 

[JerseyGirl]

Coronavirus hospital data will now be sent to Trump administration instead of CDC

Hospital data on coronavirus patients will now be rerouted to the Trump administration instead of first being sent to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the Department of Health and Human Services confirmed.

Michael Caputo, the assistant secretary for public affairs at HHS confirmed the change first reported by The New York Times, saying in a statement that the "new faster and complete data system is what our nation needs to defeat the coronavirus and the CDC, an operating division of HHS, will certainly participate in this streamlined all-of-government response. They will simply no longer control it."

The Times said hospitals are to begin reporting the data to HHS on Wednesday, noting also that the "database that will receive new information is not open to the public, which could affect the work of scores of researchers, modelers and health officials who rely on C.D.C. data to make projections and crucial decisions."

bbm

 

[Reasonable & Just]

That doesn't explain why the database is going to be closed to the public though.

CDC has been very transparent. If people want to know what the numbers are, how their state is doing, how their children's state is doing, they have that database to go to. One that is being run by the Centre for Disease Control.

This whole nightmare couldn't get more political if they tried.

Every place I know of, the covid stats are released through a govt health dept database - because that is their job - the stats do not come via Parliament House.

Right. What's the motivation behind this change? Why shouldn't the CDC get these numbers? We've already heard the president say he told people to slow down testing. We constantly hear from the administration that the reason we have so many cases is because we are testing. There is an ongoing, blatant attempt to discredit the scientist who headed our response, because he is telling the truth about our problems. There is zero reason for trust. So why take another layer of accountability away? Why shouldn't we be able to access these numbers? Why should we just roll over and accept this?

 

[JerseyGirl]

Newark (NJ) residents fan out to get people on board with governor's outdoor masking rule

A team of residents, clergy and Newark Police officers handed out fliers and free masks to people outside, reminding them of a new rule issued by Gov. Phil Murphy last week that requires masks outdoors when social distancing is impossible.

"We are out to encourage everyone to wear masks," said Ralph Cadet, a member of the Newark ambassadors program.

Approaching people in the park near Penn Station and checking stores in the area where lines typically form, the team hit the streets to let everyone know a mask is required outdoors.

They've been deployed since Monday to educate the public and pass out free masks. "I don't know anyone we reached out to who did not take a mask or did not agree to take a mask," one ambassador said.

 

[tresir2012]

Right. What's the motivation behind this change? Why shouldn't the CDC get these numbers? We've already heard the president say he told people to slow down testing. We constantly hear from the administration that the reason we have so many cases is because we are testing. There is an ongoing, blatant attempt to discredit the scientist heading our response, because he is telling the truth about our problems. There is zero reason for trust. So why take another layer of accountability away? Why shouldn't we be able to access these numbers? Why should we just roll over and accept this?

Do we know for certain that we won't be able to access the numbers?

 

[SouthAussie]

Right. What's the motivation behind this change? Why shouldn't the CDC get these numbers? We've already heard the president say he told people to slow down testing. We constantly hear from the administration that the reason we have so many cases is because we are testing. There is an ongoing, blatant attempt to discredit the scientist heading our response, because he is telling the truth about our problems. There is zero reason for trust. So why take another layer of accountability away? Why shouldn't we be able to access these numbers? Why should we just roll over and accept this?

I can think of two places where the leadership is in control of the figures .... China and Russia.

 

[Footwarrior]

Yes, the normal layperson just does not understand and get what a model and projections are. Each one of those had different conditions for different options. Many of us discussed in early threads this issue, and @JerseyGirl (whoa! there are two Jersey girls here.. one with an * to confuse me) and @margarita25 are good at trying to continue to update and educate us here, thanks.

Folks say they were wrong? Pffft. It's ignorance of the public as to what models are for. MOO.

Of course they were incorrect. Models are models, and they change over time. It was new, they did different scenarios and we are learning all the time. That is what science is! To build on new information and adjust.

Problem is, that communication for adjusting is having an issue, and some are still stuck on such as the first "it's not bad" it's.............well......... Folks mostly here get it I think vs. mainstream public who, for some reason, have issues with it that are personal to them.

I have to keep in mind that it's said that articles need to reach an 8th grade learning level. And I'm seeing such play out that some folks just don't (MOO) have the capacity to understand leading indicators/logrithmic growth (e.g. shut down BEFORE it gets to overwhelming) etc.

MOO

If you want to understand the basics of how epidemic models work, spend some time here:

What Happens Next? COVID-19 Futures, Explained With Playable Simulations

The site explains the basics and has models you can control and run. It also explains concepts like R number, social distancing, herd immunity and contact tracing.

 

[Sundog]

On a lighter note . . .

Coronavirus has Americans hooked on canned tuna, and producers are playing catch up

 

[SouthAussie]

Coronavirus hospital data will now be sent to Trump administration instead of CDC

Hospital data on coronavirus patients will now be rerouted to the Trump administration instead of first being sent to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the Department of Health and Human Services confirmed.

Michael Caputo, the assistant secretary for public affairs at HHS confirmed the change first reported by The New York Times, saying in a statement that the "new faster and complete data system is what our nation needs to defeat the coronavirus and the CDC, an operating division of HHS, will certainly participate in this streamlined all-of-government response. They will simply no longer control it."

The Times said hospitals are to begin reporting the data to HHS on Wednesday, noting also that the "database that will receive new information is not open to the public, which could affect the work of scores of researchers, modelers and health officials who rely on C.D.C. data to make projections and crucial decisions."

bbm

I wonder why this "new faster and complete data system" was not allocated to the CDC.
If the CDC needs a new data system, give it to them.

 

[Reasonable & Just]

I wonder why this "new faster and complete data system" was not allocated to the CDC.
If CDC needs a new data system, give it to them.

And if it's so new, fast, and complete, why is it impossible for the CDC to still get the numbers and continue sharing them with the public? This is the digital age and I pay taxes for the experts on disease control to tell me about disease. What purpose would there be to restricting our access to this information?

 

[JerseyGirl]

Positivity rate up to 31% in Miami-Dade County; ventilator use at 92%

The Covid-19 positivity rate rose to 31% on Tuesday in Miami-Dade County in Florida, according to data released by local officials.

The county's goal is to not exceed a positivity rate -- how many of those tested are actually infected -- of 10%. Yet it has exceeded 22% for the past two weeks.

The current 14-day average positivity rate is 27%.

Over the past 13 days the county has also seen a 56% increase in Covid-10 patients being hospitalized, a 65% increase in ICU beds being used and 92% use of ventilators, according to local government data.

Here is a breakdown of the hospitalization data released by Miami-Dade County Government:

Covid-19 patients:
7/01: 1298
7/14: 2029

Patients in ICU beds:
7/01: 266
7/14: 438

Patients on ventilators:
7/01: 118
7/14: 226

 

[tresir2012]

That doesn't explain why the database is going to be closed to the public though.

CDC has been very transparent. If people want to know what the numbers are, how their state is doing, how their children's state is doing, they have that database to go to. One that is being run by the Centre for Disease Control.

This whole nightmare couldn't get more political if they tried.

Every western place I know of, the covid stats are released through a govt health dept database - because that is their job - the stats do not come via Parliament House.

Is the US public even going to get stats anymore? That is very unclear.
Do supporters of this not want to know what is going on in the US?
If no hard stats are publicly available, how 'safe' will people feel then?

Perhaps the CDC will still publish the data? I don't believe the data will be hidden.

 

[JerseyGirl]

So, basically, for future reference we are not to believe the numbers from:

China, North Korea, Russia, and the United States.

*keeping it klassy in the usa*

 

[JerseyGirl]

Coronavirus restrictions are trapping refugees into violence and persecution, report says

Global coronavirus restrictions are preventing people from fleeing violence or forcing them to take more dangerous routes, warned the International Rescue Committee in a new report.

Border tightening and movement restrictions are also leaving thousands stranded, or to return to dire conditions and places with ongoing humanitarian crises.

“In El Salvador, Honduras, and Guatemala, borders are completely closed,” the report said. “So many who want to flee from violence are instead ‘locked in’ to a pressure cooker with some of the highest pre-existing rates of urban and gang violence in the world.”

The report found:

• In some Latin American countries, gender-based violence has increased by more than 60%.
• In Malaysia, 20-50 Rohingya refugees starved to death while stranded at sea after being turned away from closed ports and borders.
• At the US-Mexico border, more than 20,000 asylum seekers are awaiting US immigration hearings in the wake of court closures.
• 21,000 migrants have been left stranded in the African region, as well as 1,500 migrants quarantined.

Tens of thousands of migrants have also had to return to dangerous conditions due to loss of work and increased risk of xenophobia or infection. That includes over 80,000 Venezuelans who have returned from Colombia since April, nearly 60,000 migrant workers who returned to Myanmar, and 298,000 people who returned to Afghanistan from Iran.

Many of these migrants are returning to communities of violence, and some have "very low levels of knowledge about Covid-19," said the report.

Venezuelan migrants attempting to return to their country due to the Covid-19 pandemic remain in makeshift camps at the Simon Bolivar International Bridge in Cucuta, Colombia, on July 7.