Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #77

[musicaljoke]

I am putting the elderly, healthcare staff and vulnerable in one group as being a priority as that is the category worst hit by coronovirus so I believe they will get it first. Care homes have been worst hit in this pandemic, some states have had more than 50% in that category and the majority of the deaths have been in the over 65 age group. I have also seen some reports that age 50 and over would get it first. I don't know if it is in the rollout plans. I'll have to look so this is MOO for now.

If vaccines are fast tracked, I suspect that the elderly, vulnerable, and let me add pregnant and children will not be vaccinated until safety and efficacy for these particular groups can be well established. At first, before testing is completed, there likely will be cautions against giving the vaccine to individuals with specific health issues that have an unacceptable possibility of a vaccine risk.

 

[tresir2012]

And yet this paper says:

Older people and those with chronic health problems are clearly getting sickest, but vaccines tend to be less effective in these groups.
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-07-shot-coronavirus-vaccine.html

Yes I think that is true for some vaccines. The shingles one is not recommended for over 80's. I have just posted upthread the CDC guidance issued 6 days ago.

 

[SouthAussie]

Yes I think that is true for some vaccines. The shingles one is not recommended for over 80's. I have just posted upthread the CDC guidance issued 6 days ago.

I think they will need to take great care in their decisions. And those decisions may change as rollout gets closer. From what I understand, the testing is happening on the 18-65 demographic.

If they give the first limited amounts of the vaccine to those who get little effect from it - or may be put at some great risk from it - it may not be the best place to use those vaccines in the first instance.

 

[katydid23]

I wish we could magically make your dream come true. In less than half a year, the total number of deaths in the US has risen to equal the total casualties of the atomic bombings of Hiroshima plus the loss of human life Nagasaki. It's mind-numbing, an unspeakable grief. We certainly hope for a vaccine that will make this stop.

In 2018, a total of 2,839,205 resident deaths were registered in the United States.
So by September of that year, approximately 2, 100, 000 people had died, in total.

2019 totals are not listed yet, but I am going to guess that the numbers are pretty similar to 2018.

That gives us a general predictive total for the TOTAL number of deaths , in the US, for the first 8 months of 2020:
Approximately 2,100,000 people have died so far, in this country, in 2020.


When I look at that^^^ number, the added 189K does not shock me as much, as when it is described as Hiroshima plus Nagasaki.

We will have nearly 3 million DEATHS in 2020, Covid or no Covid.

People are dying from overdoses, cancer, car accidents, gun deaths, obesity, heart attacks, and murders. They are ALL mind numbing and unspeakable.

I want to try and keep things in context. Of the estimated 2,300,000 deaths so far this year, 189,000 of them are covid related.

FastStats

 

[katydid23]

Oh my goodness! I'm just reading through the research study and am blown away by the details. We knew it would be bad, but seeing how the case numbers rose from that one event is just horrifying.

That is their estimate. It is not a done deal.

 

[tresir2012]

Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)

This really emphasizes the at risk ages.

The comparison group is 18-29 years

These are the most at risk and by how many more times than the comparison group.

Age hospitalisations death

65-74 years 5x higher 90x higher
75-84 years 8x higher 220x higher
85+ years 13x higher 630x higher

Puts it in perspective. The link has all ages so you can look up your age group and your loved ones age group.

 

[tresir2012]

That is their estimate. It is not a done deal.

Cases have actually gone down overall which does not back up there findings anyway IMO. The cases are falling so anyone like to guess why that is?

 

[tresir2012]

I think they will need to take great care in their decisions. And those decisions may change as rollout gets closer. From what I understand, the testing is happening on the 18-65 demographic.

If they give the first limited amounts of the vaccine to those who get little effect from it - or may be put at some great risk from it - it may not be the best place to use those vaccines in the first instance.

What plans does Australia have? Have you prioritised who will get the vaccine first? It would be interesting to compare.
If US cases continue falling at the current rate of 5k cases per day, the need for a vaccine there will disappear shortly.

Maybe that's why they want to get the vaccine out quickly.

ETA latest from JHU has US at 12th and UK 6th regarding deaths per 100k population. US were 9th last week IIRC and UK did not change position.

Mortality Analyses - Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center

 

[SouthAussie]

That is their estimate. It is not a done deal.

It does seem to be the only comprehensive study that has been done on a difficult outcome to trace, though.
They have tried to use whatever facilities that are available to gauge the ripple effect.

I don't think there can ever be a done deal. With these Sturgis attendees coming from all over the place. And good contact tracing being virtually impossible in this instance.

IMO

 

[SouthAussie]

What plans does Australia have? Have you prioritised who will get the vaccine first? It would be interesting to compare.
If US cases continue falling at the current rate of 5k cases per day, the need for a vaccine there will disappear shortly.

Maybe that's why they want to get the vaccine out quickly.

ETA latest from JHU has US at 12th and UK 6th regarding deaths per 100k population. US were 9th last week IIRC and UK did not change position.

Mortality Analyses - Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center

I haven't yet heard any rollout plans, other than every Australian will get a free vaccine.

I think it is too far away at the moment. It seems that we are trying to get our numbers as low as possible and keep them low. In that way, we will keep deaths down across the board.

It seems that even with a vaccine being available in early 2021 (best case scenario, from what I have read) it will take all of 2021 to get everyone vaccinated.
I heard on the radio that the manufacturing facilities will only be able to manufacture at a certain rate.

I also read that if the two vaccines we are interested in both are successful, that they may be combined to give a greater boost, if that is safe.

I dont have the link available, so this is IMO.

 

[tresir2012]

I haven't yet heard any rollout plans, other than every Australian will get a free vaccine.

I think it is too far away at the moment. It seems that we are trying to get our numbers as low as possible and keep them low. In that way, we will keep deaths down across the board.

It seems that even with a vaccine being available in early 2021 (best case scenario, from what I have read) it will take all of 2021 to get everyone vaccinated.
I heard on the radio that the manufacturing facilities will only be able to manufacture at a certain rate.

I also read that if the two vaccines we are interested in both are successful, that they may be combined to give a greater boost, if that is safe.

I dont have the link available, so this is IMO.

Australia to receive first batch of AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine in January 2021 - PM to say

This link suggests vulnerable people and frontline workers will be first.

 

[Sundog]

Get super cheap baby wipes and dump alcohol in the bag. Cheaper than Clorox wipes and more readily available. I get massive packs and then keep some in a ziplock in my purse and some in the house.

I'd like to try this. Can you provide more details about the alcohol,source, amount, etc.?

 

[tresir2012]

I'd like to try this. Can you provide more details about the alcohol,source, amount, etc.?

I have done this too and posted ages ago but I just used diluted bleach. It is a great standby. I have since managed to purchase plenty of antibacterial wipes from LIDL so have plenty now.

 

[SouthAussie]

Australia to receive first batch of AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine in January 2021 - PM to say

This link suggests vulnerable people and frontline workers will be first.

With the flu shots, front line workers always go first, several weeks before the rest of us. My DD is always vaccinated at her hospital 3 weeks or so prior to the flu shot becoming available to the rest of us.
We would fully expect and want that.

 

[tresir2012]

It does seem to be the only comprehensive study that has been done on a difficult outcome to trace, though.
They have tried to use whatever facilities that are available to gauge the ripple effect.

I don't think there can ever be a done deal. With these Sturgis attendees coming from all over the place. And good contact tracing being virtually impossible in this instance.

IMO

They have the phone data that was used in the study though. But the number of cases they quote (250k) has not been supported by the test numbers IMO. I guess they could all be sitting at home not being tested, but they could certainly be contact traced as they have done that with the identified cases so far.

 

[katydid23]

It does seem to be the only comprehensive study that has been done on a difficult outcome to trace, though.
They have tried to use whatever facilities that are available to gauge the ripple effect.

I don't think there can ever be a done deal. With these Sturgis attendees coming from all over the place. And good contact tracing being virtually impossible in this instance.

IMO

I went to their website. They have done 3 studies on Covid spreading. They said the Sturgis rally and the Trump rally were both estimated to be super spreaders. But the many Black Lives Matter protests, larger in numbers, larger in time spans, larger in geographic locations, ---they do not think they are spreading any Covid.

 

[tresir2012]

That's weird one group spreads it but one group doesn't.

Regarding falling cases, I have found a link although two weeks old. Cases have fallen even more since then - yesterday they were 26,850

Here's why new cases of the coronavirus are down across most of the U.S.

"White House coronavirus advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci warned members of Congress in late June that the U.S. might report more than 100,000 daily new cases of the virus “if this does not turn around.”

But months later, Fauci’s worst fears have not come to pass as daily new cases have steadily fallen across much of the U.S. While testing has declined in recent weeks, the number of new cases is falling faster than testing rates, indicating that at least some of the drop is real."

Here's a more recent news item. 10,000 cases a day is considered the goal by Dr. Fauci.

Fauci says U.S. COVID-19 cases 'unacceptably high' as flu season nears

Why isn't this big news?

 

[mommadukes]

That's weird one group spreads it but one group doesn't.

The differences can probably be attributed to mask wearing. Much of the footage I have seen of BLM protests have the majority of people wearing them, while the opposite is true of the other two examples. MOO.

 

[tresir2012]

The differences can probably be attributed to mask wearing. Much of the footage I have seen of BLM protests have the majority of people wearing them, while the opposite is true of the other two examples. MOO.

Was that the conclusion of the study? I didn't read the other two studies.

 

[SouthAussie]

The differences can probably be attributed to mask wearing. Much of the footage I have seen of BLM protests have the majority of people wearing them, while the opposite is true of the other two examples. MOO.

As well, their BLM rallies research says that locals stayed home a lot due to the protests, were more socially distanced.

Black Lives Matter Protests, Social Distancing, and COVID-19