FL FL - Michelle Parker, 33, Orlando, 17 Nov 2011 - #22

[Jazzmaster]

I agree also, although the real plan does not come from the very beginning, this is a perp that is driving with Michelle in his van/truck, this is a perp who's taken her (very possibly still alive) and her purse and he's interested in both although not to the same extent, as he drives the phone rings ... he becomes yet again aware of the cell but he doesn't answer it, he's planning and needs to fit everything together ... the text message comes and he decides to answer it ... Waterford, he then decides that by know the cell is liability and cannot wait to hide it with the body and everything else ... he comes upon the bridge and tosses it as it continues to his eventual final destination.

So who has her vehicle and how does her purse get back to her vehicle? It indicates to me that at least two people were most likely involved...

 

[What'sThatClue]

I agree also, although the real plan does not come from the very beginning, this is a perp that is driving with Michelle in his van/truck, this is a perp who's taken her (very possibly still alive) and her purse and he's interested in both although not to the same extent, as he drives the phone rings ... he becomes yet again aware of the cell but he doesn't answer it, he's planning and needs to fit everything together ... the text message comes and he decides to answer it ... Waterford, he then decides that by know the cell is liability and he cannot wait to hide it with the body and everything else since he doesn't know what to do exactly yet, a specific location has not been determined ... he comes upon the bridge and tosses it, better to spread things around ... he thinks , as it drives toward the eventual final destination.

He took her purse? I didn't know that.

 

[Thor]

So who has her vehicle and how does her purse get back to her vehicle? It indicates to me that at least two people were most likely involved...

No, that was completely moronic on my part, I so totally forgot how the purse is in the Hummer, go figure. So substitute purse with cell and it still works, at least as much as as yet another theory without real physical evidence could potentially work. My assumptions are basically as follows:

1. Michelle is taken alive, she is not dead as a consequence of one single confrontation at a particular location.

2. The text response is at the very beginning of the planning stage. Tossing the phone seems inconsistent with everything else this perp does further. Why toss it? why not power it down? That makes a bit of sense if he has not yet arrived at a real plan at that juncture. It might be possible at that point Michelle is very much alive and he's very much debating what to do ... not the general idea of it but its particulars.

 

[Pias]

I am happy to see the family embracing Satellite Technology and posting a link to the change.org petition to have this technology added to our arsenal against violent crimes.

https://www.facebook.com/michelleparkermissingperson

http://www.change.org/petitions/we-...sting-military-technology-we-the-people-speak

 

[Thor]

On the phone tossing so as to clarify further ... It makes sense for the perp to keep the phone of all things ... he just abducted (?) Michelle, no large scale search is on the way obviously, we are basically at the very beginning of this, certainly not even remotely enough time for the police to make all the necessary steps involved in triangulating a location. The phone however may indicate activity on the part of those that know Michelle and are planning and/or expect to interact with her at some point, no calls ... no text and therefore no one is looking for her just yet, the opposite gives a more detailed time frame from which he should operate from since time is of the essence obviously and needs to be assumed scarce and/or limited in any event.

So now that people are looking for MP, the live phone is a liability having exhausted its usefulness, so here comes the interesting part which comes with the question .... why toss it?

Now, we know he finds a location where he can conclude what he's started and which culminates with him disposing of the body. We know said location is clearly effective in achieving its purposes, so why not power the cell down, wipe it clean and bury it with everything else? Logic dictates that absolutely .... so why toss it then? If he tosses it the chance of it being discovered maximizes, also there is a chance that cannot be totally discounted ... that it might be noticed ... the person in the car right behind him? How strange it might be somebody tossing something out like ...what was that? A cell phone? Something metallic? Certainly not a piece of paper? What was that vehicle? Color? Plates! No, The operative words here must be "do not attract attention" and if you're going to bury a body over there then why not the phone as well? So again, why toss it? Why take the chance, however negligible, such an act would bring?

To me it's because he doesn't know exactly what his next move will be, because he's not sure yet how effectively he can hide the body with any degree of comfort, because he wants to split the evidence just in case of that, because there is no clear strategy as yet ...

So, assuming that is the way (or close to it) that it happens what is significant therefore? What are the conclusion? IMO they are as follows:

1. There is no premeditation, Michelle is either a target of opportunity, or a target as a result of a trigger, such as an altercation of sort if one envisions DS as being responsible for it.

2. The perp his concerned with hiding his tracks ... this is not a kill and dump on the side of road operation clearly, the perp has connection with the area probably because he works there, although I give the odds in favor of him not living in the area, he's there to provide a service of sort, possibly of the specialized kind, like maintenance of heavy machinery, or special deliveries of some kind and so on.

3. This perp is methodical, even the tossing of the cell, although perhaps avoidable, is targeted at the water for obvious reasons.


And also ...

JMO

 

[Thor]

One more thing ... keeping the phone initially to monitor possible communication in the short term may also indicate the perp is familiar with his victim and those gravitating around her and therefore be known to them himself, and as a result he'd be concerned that traveling in his own van may not necessarily provide the degree of anonymity preferable here, however since DS's van has surely been searched thoroughly by the forensic experts, this last point remains inconclusive one way or the other and I have no choice but to be skeptical, in my calculation of the probabilities, that DS would have used his own van in transporting Michelle here while managing to leave no forensic evidence in its wake, although certainly possible with clearly more to be deciphered in both sides of this equation. IMO

 

[Jazzmaster]

One more thing ... keeping the phone initially to monitor possible communication in the short term may also indicate the perp is familiar with his victim and those gravitating around her and therefore be known to them himself, and as a result he'd be concerned that traveling in his own van may not necessarily provide the degree of anonymity preferable here, however since DS's van has surely been searched thoroughly by the forensic experts, this last point remains inconclusive one way or the other and I have no choice but to be skeptical, in my calculation of the probabilities, that DS would have used his own van in transporting Michelle here while managing to leave no forensic evidence in its wake, although certainly possible with clearly more to be deciphered in both sides of this equation. IMO

If Michelle was transported alive in the vehicle what DNA evidence would be found? The phone IMO was used for monitoring family activity and thus the person who had the phone knew Michelle intimately. Notice the time the phone was powered down...right around the time when Michelle was due to start working and the perp knew his time without LE involvement was coming to a close...At that point the phone was a liability and NO longer useful...

 

[Thor]

If Michelle was transported alive in the vehicle what DNA evidence would be found? The phone IMO was used for monitoring family activity and thus the person who had the phone knew Michelle intimately. Notice the time the phone was powered down...right around the time when Michelle was due to start working and the perp knew his time without LE involvement was coming to a close...At that point the phone was a liability and NO longer useful...

I think we managed to agree substantially here ... as for DNA and other forensic evidence possibly present in the van that would depend on a lot of factors like: were there injuries she sustained before being forced into the van? Hair? Saliva residue? Minute pieces of fabric? A small button perhaps? Dried microscopic traces of blood? Tiny broken pieces of fingernail? And one can go on ... and yes there is a time reference frame that is when MP is expected to arrive at work, but that was not exactly right there and then and the phone was used (as we both agree) as an indicator of a possible search activity and the phone being powered down at around the same time she is due at work is probably the results of the same phone inquiries instigated by her not being at work. Besides assuming that the perp is Dale, would you then say he looks at the watch and says ... "oh this is around the time MP is due for work so let me powered it down so that I can create a nexus between the two"? Not likely, the phone goes off when thrown into the water because it is dictated by the natural sequence of the events unfolding at the time. IMO

 

[Jazzmaster]

I think we managed to agree substantially here ... as for DNA and other forensic evidence possibly present in the van that would depend on a lot of factors like: were there injuries she sustained before being forced into the van? Hair? Saliva residue? Minute pieces of fabric? A small button perhaps? Dried microscopic traces of blood? Tiny broken pieces of fingernail? And one can go on ... and yes there is a time reference frame that is when MP is expected to arrive at work, but that was not exactly right there and then and the phone was used (as we both agree) as an indication of a possible search activity and the phone being powered down at around the same time she is due at work is probably the results of the same phone inquiries instigated by her not being at work. Besides assuming that the perp is Dale, would you then say he looks at the watch and says ... "oh this is the time MP is due for work so let me powered it down so that I can create a nexus between the two"? Not likely, the phone goes off because it is dictated by the natural sequence of events. IMO

I agree on the DNA. However, if Michelle was just abducted and planned to be held/killed later than any of the DNA left (hair, clothing, etc) do not produce evidence that a crime took place. As for the phone, I do agree that the phone was powered down in a natural series of events...however I do believe the perp knew Michelle's start time at work and thus created a window of opportunity for himself.

It is key to note....Dale could NOT be reached via phone between 4:30 and after Michelle was reported missing to LE (after she did not show up for work). IMO...This was intentional as he was buying time to dispose of evidence. After Michelle's shift begins and Michelle is not there, Dale must discard the phone quickly and may have been why the phone was tossed where it was. However, I am still not 100% convinced the phone was discarded on the 17th. I leave open the possibility that the phone was placed where it was days or weeks later.

 

[Thor]

I agree on the DNA. However, if Michelle was just abducted and planned to be held/killed later than any of the DNA left (hair, clothing, etc) do not produce evidence that a crime took place. As for the phone, I do agree that the phone was powered down in a natural series of events...however I do believe the perp knew Michelle's start time at work and thus created a window of opportunity for himself.

It is key to note....Dale could NOT be reached via phone between 4:30 and after Michelle was reported missing to LE (after she did not show up for work). IMO...This was intentional as he was buying time to dispose of evidence. After Michelle's shift begins and Michelle is not there, Dale must discard the phone quickly and may have been why the phone was tossed where it was. However, I am still not 100% convinced the phone was discarded on the 17th. I leave open the possibility that the phone was placed where it was days or weeks later.

I think that your observation about Dale not being reachable within key time stamps of the crime is justified and probably why he's considered a suspect, otherwise, assuming an ability to account for his whereabouts, he would probably not be one at this time.

I'm not sure what you mean by:

"...if Michelle was just abducted and planned to be held/killed later than any of the DNA left (hair, clothing, etc) do not produce evidence that a crime took place."

So suppose they found dried microscopic particles of blood belonging to MP in his van, would that not constitute evidence of foul play? Exactly when would he say that MP climbed in the back of his van and hurt herself? Or broke her fingernails there, or salivated on the floor of the van? Or lost a button there? Or otherwise when would he say that Michelle, for any reasons, had been in the back of his van? On top of it all, many such evidence may come with an ascertainable age ... No Jazz, I respectfully disagree there, no evidence in his truck, as no evidence at his condo are a huge problem for the police, THE most important task a DA needs to do is to place the accused at the crime scene at the time of the crime, having evidence of both, and although they can still get a conviction assuming significant corollary evidence, it would still be an uphill battle I'm afraid and the reason why DS has not been charged yet and not likely to be charged in the future unless they discover pertinent evidence that directly implicates him in the disappearance of Michelle ... like ... discovering where Michelle's body is and finding what is his there that should not have been. JMO

As for the phone not been discarded on the day of the crime, what would be the reason for Dale to hold on to it and the unbelievable danger that keeping it might have brought to him? If anything that would indicate someone other then Dale, someone that does not expect a search would involve his premises, his vehicle or anything of his, conversely Dale surely would have anticipated a search of everything that was his, so what does he do? ... Does he hide the phone somewhere to be retrieved later? Does he keep it in his pocket? In his van? For what reason? He gets caught with it he's guilty, end of story, why would he then keep it a nanosecond longer that he has to? There's basically nothing here indicating recklessness, obvious erratic emotional compulsions where the hiding of evidence is the issue, or anything that supports this perp being driven by anything else but an acute sense of caution and planning because he demonstrates to be through it all, as I said on many occasions, methodical and not necessarily someone like Dale who has a provable history of getting caught. What you have here is a statistically perfect candidate to have committed this crime but none of the brains with which this crime has apparently been carried out, unless of course he's not nearly as stupid as one might readily assume by what he has failed to accomplish in his life and all his shenanigans included therein, which remains not outside the realm of possibilities for what is not known is usually a lot more that what it is known. JMO

 

[Jazzmaster]

I think that your observation about Dale not being reachable within key time stamps of the crime is justified and probably why he's considered a suspect, otherwise, assuming an ability to account for his whereabouts, he would probably not be one at this time.

I'm not sure what you mean by:

"...if Michelle was just abducted and planned to be held/killed later than any of the DNA left (hair, clothing, etc) do not produce evidence that a crime took place."

So suppose they found dried microscopic particles of blood belonging to MP in his van, would that not constitute evidence of foul play? Exactly when would he say that MP climbed in the back of his van and hurt herself? Or broke her fingernails there, or salivated on the floor of the van? Or lost a button there? Or otherwise when would he say that Michelle, for any reasons, had been in the back of his van? On top of it all, many such evidence may come with an ascertainable age ... No Jazz, I respectfully disagree there, no evidence in his truck, as no evidence at his condo are a huge problem for the police, THE most important task a DA needs to do is to place the accused at the crime scene at the time of the crime, having evidence of both, and although they can still get a conviction assuming significant corollary evidence, it would still be an uphill battle I'm afraid and the reason why DS has not been charged yet and not likely to be charged in the future unless they discover pertinent evidence that directly implicates him in the disappearance of Michelle ... like ... discovering where Michelle's body is and finding what is his there that should not have been. JMO

As for the phone not been discarded on the day of the crime, what would be the reason for Dale to hold on to it and the unbelievable danger that keeping it might have brought to him? If anything that would indicate someone other then Dale, someone that does not expect a search would involve his premises, his vehicle or anything of his, conversely Dale surely would have anticipated a search of everything that was his, so what does he do? ... Does he hide the phone somewhere to be retrieved later? Does he keep it in his pocket? In his van? For what reason? He gets caught with it he's guilty, end of story, why would he then keep it a nanosecond longer that he has to? There's basically nothing here indicating recklessness, obvious erratic emotional compulsions where the hiding of evidence is the issue, or anything that supports this perp being driven by anything else but an acute sense of caution and planning because he demonstrates to be through it all, as I said on many occasions, methodical and not necessarily someone like Dale who has a provable history of getting caught. What you have here is a statistically perfect candidate to have committed this crime but none of the brains with which this crime has apparently been carried out, unless of course he's not nearly as stupid as one might readily assume by what he has failed to accomplish in his life and all his shenanigans included therein, which remains not outside the realm of possibilities for what is not known is usually a lot more that what it is known. JMO

If Dale planned this in advance which I believe is in the relm of possibilities. He drugs or incapacitated Michelle within the privacy of his home with no known witnesses. He places Michelle in the work van or the bed of his pickup truck tied and bound. She is alive but no traces of blood. Yes hair and clothes fibers could be present, but what do those indicate if DA cannot prove a crime took place? There maybe DNA evidence that exists but it it is not of the incriminating variety or it is also reasonable that no DNA exists whatsoever. What if another vehicle was used (rental, accomplices vehicle etc). Did any of his friends or family trade in or sell vehicles shortly after Michelle went missing?

As for the phone, I agree it was probably discarded on the day Michelle disappeared but I have not seen evidence or reports to confirm or deny that. Common sense says yes but we do not know if Dale killed Michelle on the 17th or a later date. What if she was held somewhere for a period of time or transported somewhere? Everything indicates the phone would have been dumped early on but without confirmation of that fact I leave open other possibilities whether they make sense to me or not. The fact that Michelle is still missing does not make sense to me yet it still happened....so with this case and killers in general they do things many of us will NEVER understand. JMO

 

[missingm]

I agree on the DNA. However, if Michelle was just abducted and planned to be held/killed later than any of the DNA left (hair, clothing, etc) do not produce evidence that a crime took place. As for the phone, I do agree that the phone was powered down in a natural series of events...however I do believe the perp knew Michelle's start time at work and thus created a window of opportunity for himself.

It is key to note....Dale could NOT be reached via phone between 4:30 and after Michelle was reported missing to LE (after she did not show up for work). IMO...This was intentional as he was buying time to dispose of evidence. After Michelle's shift begins and Michelle is not there, Dale must discard the phone quickly and may have been why the phone was tossed where it was. However, I am still not 100% convinced the phone was discarded on the 17th. I leave open the possibility that the phone was placed where it was days or weeks later.

bbm
I don't believe that there is a record that anyone tried to to contact him before approximately 7:30pm, and there is no report that I can find of when he called back. Just that he had to call back. It could have been 10 minutes later for all we know.

 

[Thor]

If Dale planned this in advance which I believe is in the relm of possibilities. He drugs or incapacitated Michelle within the privacy of his home with no known witnesses. He places Michelle in the work van or the bed of his pickup truck tied and bound. She is alive but no traces of blood. Yes hair and clothes fibers could be present, but what do those indicate if DA cannot prove a crime took place? There maybe DNA evidence that exists but it it is not of the incriminating variety or it is also reasonable that no DNA exists whatsoever. What if another vehicle was used (rental, accomplices vehicle etc). Did any of his friends or family trade in or sell vehicles shortly after Michelle went missing?

As for the phone, I agree it was probably discarded on the day Michelle disappeared but I have not seen evidence or reports to confirm or deny that. Common sense says yes but we do not know if Dale killed Michelle on the 17th or a later date. What if she was held somewhere for a period of time or transported somewhere? Everything indicates the phone would have been dumped early on but without confirmation of that fact I leave open other possibilities whether they make sense to me or not. The fact that Michelle is still missing does not make sense to me yet it still happened....so with this case and killers in general they do things many of us will NEVER understand. JMO

I still don't understand what are the reasons that the phone might have been disposed of days after the abduction and much less the significance of it .... and surely it is "... in the relm of possibilities. He drugs or incapacitated Michelle within the privacy of his home with no known witnesses ..." but only in the sense that I can be in the "NBA all Stars" one day IMO.

Why would Dale plan to drug and kidnap Michelle on a late afternoon when she's he's dropping off the kids? Why would he do so at his condo? Why would he devise a scenario where he abducts/kills Michelle where the kids are at the scene? Why would he choose to do all of that when he would be identifiably the last person to have seen Michelle alive? Why would he choose to harm Michelle on a sunny late afternoon where lots of people are coming an going? Why that day? Why that time? Why not at a night where no kids are present, why not at a place with no direct connection to himself? What are the reasons to plan it like this? And I have asked those questions to those who believe premeditation is possible here and I haven't gotten an answer to this date.

 

[Jazzmaster]

bbm
I don't believe that there is a record that anyone tried to to contact him before approximately 7:30pm, and there is no report that I can find of when he called back. Just that he had to call back. It could have been 10 minutes later for all we know.

I'm not following you here. Michelle was missing after arriving at Dale's and no one called Dale to see where Michelle was... This was discussed up thread several times... Not sure which thread but Dale was certainly unable to be reached between 4:30 and at least 7:30.

 

[all4justice]

Yes I agree! Great suggestion Bernsie...

On another note: Some day Dale will crack and eventually confess to someone, somewhere. It may take years but he will eventually sing like a drag queen from Birdcage... JMO

BBM

If Dale is the perp, he probably has already confessed to at least one person given how social he is. I don't think he would have been able to keep something like that to himself. It's important to keep Michelle's disappearance in the news in order to pressure the person(s) who knows where she is, to tell. The average person can't live with the guilt of having a secret of that magnitude. JMO, IMO

 

[Jazzmaster]

I still don't understand what are the reasons that the phone might have been disposed of days after the abduction and much less the significance of it .... and surely it is "... in the relm of possibilities. He drugs or incapacitated Michelle within the privacy of his home with no known witnesses ..." but only in the sense that I can be in the "NBA all Stars" one day IMO.

Why would Dale plan to drug and kidnap Michelle on a late afternoon when she's he's dropping off the kids? Why would he do so at his condo? Why would he devise a scenario where he abducts/kills Michelle where the kids are at the scene? Why would he choose to do all of that when he would be identifiably the last person to have seen Michelle alive? Why would he choose to harm Michelle on a sunny late afternoon where lots of people are coming an going? Why that day? Why that time? Why not at a night where no kids are present, why not at a place with no direct connection to himself? What are the reasons to plan it like this? And I have asked those questions to those who believe premeditation is possible here and I haven't gotten an answer to this date.

I bet if you put your mind to it Thor, you could have been an NBA all star.
That bald head of yours would fit in the NBA BTW...lol

For Dale....It is all about control. You control what you can control and try to keep your mistakes/witnesses etc to the LOWEST common denominator...

On day of PC airing: This is the most unexpected day so why not? Expect the unexpected. She could have run away out of embarrassment...giving him some shield for a period of time. He was really upset with her and planned to kill her someday. This was as good of a day as any. He knew suspicion would always come back to him. If he hid the body well...he figured no body, no arrest.

Why at the condo: no witnesses in the privacy of his own home. If he is careful and calculated he can avoid leaving DNA evidence and within the privacy of his garage he can avoid witnesses.

Time of day: this probably works more to his advantage rather than against if a majority of his neighbors were working like he SHOULD have been on a Thursday afternoon.

Kids at scene: It is within the realm of possibilities that Dale had help. With or without help, if he got Michelle away from the children he could have drugged or incapacitated her and quickly put her in bed of his truck or the van without detection. Kids wouldn't have seen a thing. If someone was at condo watching PC episode with Dale, they could have occupied twinners.

Again I am not 100% on pre-meditation...I still LEAN that way but I leave open the possibility that he attacked Michelle and was forced to follow through with killing her on fear of (third strike law). She had the goods on him and was going to tell the world a "secret" he had been hiding IMO... If he does the deed away from his condo on any other day and time, he simply risks witnesses seeing his evilness.

All JMO

 

[missingm]

I'm not following you here. Michelle was missing after arriving at Dale's and no one called Dale to see where Michelle was... This was discussed up thread several times... Not sure which thread but Dale was certainly unable to be reached between 4:30 and at least 7:30.

No one tried to call Dale immediately after 4:30, so you can't say that Dale could not be reached.

 

[Pias]

One thing that kinda bothers me is that some relatives said Michelle did not text and drive. At 3:15 she texts about the song. It takes 3 more minutes to get to Dale's and in that 3 minutes she does not reply to the smileys and hearts. Could someone have gotten in the HUMMER at the gate on her way in? Why would it take 3 minutes? She wasn't driving up slowly replying to a text, that's for sure. Doesn't mean she was at the gate at 3:15, but if you use the theory that she does not text and drive, then waiting for the gate to open seemed more likely. IDK, just thinking about it...

 

[Jazzmaster]

No one tried to call Dale immediately after 4:30, so you can't say that Dale could not be reached.

You have a copy of Dale's phone records? Were there any incoming calls between 4:30 and 7:30pm? TIA.

 

[Pias]

The text she makes does not seem pressing enough (important) to make while driving if that is not her normal habit. ESPECIALLY when she is expecting to come to the gate. IMO, she was at the gate when she made that text AND it takes her TOO long to get to the condo. I believe THIS may be where she was ambushed and it began. JMO The children could have been sleeping and someone hops in passenger side front. The person was likely at Dale's with him, watching the video. Michelle perhaps calls to tell Dale she is on her way. Someone goes to wait by gate? Maybe. IDK.