IA IA - Elizabeth Collins, 8, & Lyric Cook, 10, Evansdale, 13 July 2012 - #15

[otto]

Here is the one you requested. I have another one coming...

River Forest Road to Jones - YouTube

Thank you ... very much appreciated. I think that's one very possible route.

 

[otto]

Here is a different one that takes them all the way to Gilbert and possibly past the Casey's cameras (note: NO actual video of girls from Casey's has been released or is known to us - just saying that if there was, this would be a possible path)

River Forest Road to Gilbert - YouTube

I wondered about that too. I assumed that the girls would not cross to the West side of River Forest Road, and since the sidewalk on the East side of the road ends at about Central ... I thought maybe they would turn East at that point.

 

[otto]

I wouldn't recommend watching Megan is Missing. It's a bit like The Blair Witch Project ... low budget, claims to be based on fact ... but it's just fiction with a really ugly story.

 

[Wishbone]

I wouldn't recommend watching Megan is Missing. It's a bit like The Blair Witch Project ... low budget, claims to be based on fact ... but it's just fiction with a really ugly story.

Very disturbing and had to ff through most of it. Sad thing is that these kinds of things happen in real life. My heart is breaking for those two little girls.......

 

[nikb]

I wouldn't recommend watching Megan is Missing. It's a bit like The Blair Witch Project ... low budget, claims to be based on fact ... but it's just fiction with a really ugly story.

Thanks Otto. That was the conclusion I just came to as well after watching it and doing a little research. All that came up on Google was the movie, not anything about a real person. I hope that it's not based on fact and even then I'm a little scared about the person who came up with the 'fictional' story. I'm trying to decide if I should delete my posts about it, but I think I'll at least delete the link I quoted for now.

 

[iamnotagolem]

Can we discuss typical suspects, motives, etc? We don't need specific names, just general suspects.

Suspects? Pedophile, human trafficking, family, bullies, What else? I'll assume based on their ages they weren't taken to be raised as their own.

Motives? Sex, money, silence, hatred, what else?

Please add to the list, I just think we could look at things from a different perspective and possibly do some good in helping bring these girls home. We've discussed the bikes, video, paddle boat, and mini-maxi dresses to death.

 

[hambirg]

It would be that 99% take longer than 24 hours to report; add that to the 1% of children who never have a missing persons report filed. That's 100%

86.6% are reported missing within 24 hours, so 13.4% are reported between 4.5 hours and 24 hours.

68.4% are reported missing within 4.5 hours so 18.2% are reported between 2 hours and 4.5 hours.

42.9% are reported missing within 2 hours so 15.4% are reported between 1 hour and 2 hours.

27.5 are reported missing within 1 hour so 7.9% are reported missing between immediately and 1 hour.

19.6 are reported missing immediately (I shudder to think how horrible it would be to see your child snatched and only be able to call LE to fix it).

Please keep in mind that I was never good at math and haven't gotten any better with 35+ years between me and the last math class I took.

The study only included abducted children who were younger than 18, the original police agency receiving the report acted from the beginning on the possibility that the child had been abducted by a non-family member and the case was solved in some way (either via trial or via high probability that the case had been solved but did not go to trial for some reason).

The reason I brought it up is because it seems to me that, although we don't know what happened to the girls, that study was what I could find that quantified the behaviour of parents or guardians when a child is abducted.

From that limited perspective, it seems to me that the family was about average for the length of time they waited before contacting LE.

BBM

I just wanted to address this because I think it is important.

The statistics above came from more than 800 cases of missing/abduction child murders where 100% of the victims were murdered within the first 30 days.

It is not reflective of what is the average of missing children reports. Because the majority of the times the police are called with a report of a missing child, the child is found safe. I think it's an important distinction to make. It's almost like what NOT to do.

I just don't want anybody to read those numbers and think that the norm is to wait 2-2.5 hrs to report their child missing. It is only the norm when the outcome is the worst case scenario. In the executive summary to this case study it says. . .

One question answered by this research is this: What can we tell parents to help them protect their children? Even though child abduction murders are rare, parents must eliminate, or minimize the opportunity for their children to become victims. We need to tell parents that if their child is unaccounted for, call the police immediately.

http://www.atg.wa.gov/uploadedFiles...)/Child_Abduction_Murder_Research/CMIIPDF.pdf

 

[MNDad]

Can we discuss typical suspects, motives, etc? We don't need specific names, just general suspects.

Suspects? Pedophile, human trafficking, family, bullies, What else? I'll assume based on their ages they weren't taken to be raised as their own.

Motives? Sex, money, silence, hatred, what else?

Please add to the list, I just think we could look at things from a different perspective and possibly do some good in helping bring these girls home. We've discussed the bikes, video, paddle boat, and mini-maxi dresses to death.

Yes please. I don't have anything to add at the moment but I am in complete favor of your suggestion.

 

[JaimeInLA]

Here is a different one that takes them all the way to Gilbert and possibly past the Casey's cameras (note: NO actual video of girls from Casey's has been released or is known to us - just saying that if there was, this would be a possible path)

River Forest Road to Gilbert - YouTube

These are AMAZING!

That River Forest route -- I'm not feeling it. The sidewalks are on the far (West) side of the road, which means they'd have to CROSS over a big 4-lane road to go back east. I don't see girls that age being comfortable enough to do that. I know my 9-year old wouldn't attempt it. I think they'd stick to the more residential routes. But who knows....

 

[MNDad]

These are AMAZING!

That River Forest route -- I'm not feeling it. The sidewalks are on the far (West) side of the road, which means they'd have to CROSS over a big 4-lane road to go back east. I don't see girls that age being comfortable enough to do that. I know my 9-year old wouldn't attempt it. I think they'd stick to the more residential routes. But who knows....

Yeah, Otto pointed out the sidewalk thing too, so you are probably right. I was just trying to put them down by that Casey's and maybe closer to the creeper campground, but it just doesnt really work.

 

[hambirg]

Can we discuss typical suspects, motives, etc? We don't need specific names, just general suspects.

Suspects? Pedophile, human trafficking, family, bullies, What else? I'll assume based on their ages they weren't taken to be raised as their own.

Motives? Sex, money, silence, hatred, what else?

Please add to the list, I just think we could look at things from a different perspective and possibly do some good in helping bring these girls home. We've discussed the bikes, video, paddle boat, and mini-maxi dresses to death.

Great idea!

I know in that research report I linked above it said that in the majority of the cases the initial perp/victim contact happened within 1/4 mile of the victims house. This really makes me question whether the girls were ever at the lake or if they weren't initially approached somewhere up where they were caught on cctv.

 

[Confusion]

Can we discuss typical suspects, motives, etc? We don't need specific names, just general suspects.

Suspects? Pedophile, human trafficking, family, bullies, What else? I'll assume based on their ages they weren't taken to be raised as their own.

Motives? Sex, money, silence, hatred, what else?

Please add to the list, I just think we could look at things from a different perspective and possibly do some good in helping bring these girls home. We've discussed the bikes, video, paddle boat, and mini-maxi dresses to death.

I had tried this a couple weeks ago, but maybe people are more ready for it now. My lists were:

WHO

Stranger – local
Stranger – elsewhere
<Mod Snip>
WHERE

Bike path
Park
Street
Near home
Friend's house
Woods

HOW

Lure
Trap
Grab on street

MOTIVE

Revenge
Sex
Fun/excitement
Threat
Psychotic behavior
Anger
Accident

EVIDENCE/CLUES

Bikes
Video
Tire prints
Cans?
Purse
Paddle boat?

WITNESSES

Lawn waterer
Bike rider
Grandma
Man at lake?
Paddle boat rider?
Boy fishing

 

[imamaze]

Can we discuss typical suspects, motives, etc? We don't need specific names, just general suspects.

Suspects? Pedophile, human trafficking, family, bullies, What else? I'll assume based on their ages they weren't taken to be raised as their own.

Motives? Sex, money, silence, hatred, what else?

Please add to the list, I just think we could look at things from a different perspective and possibly do some good in helping bring these girls home. We've discussed the bikes, video, paddle boat, and mini-maxi dresses to death.

No one has been named a suspect or person of interest so this can not be discussed this way. You can link to and discuss registered sex offenders as long as they are in the same area.

No rumors and facts must be linked to from MSM's.

Ima

 

[superbee]

I'm also very interested in the kid that was fishing, and what he did or didn't see. I wish we could get a start and end time on his outing.

As for where he was fishing, he was probably on the north side of the lake near the parking lot. That's the standard place to put in a line at Meyers Lake. On my weekend trip down there I saw approximately four people fishing there. If he lived in one of those lakeside houses on the east side, he might have fished from his parent's dock, but the north side is the most likely. The only other places with clear shots to water are in the evil southeast corner. Probably can rule that out because he would have seen the bikes make their way to the gate, by girls or by bad guys! Plus that's a heck of a way to walk just to fish when the parking lot shore is so easy to get to.

Some thoughts. We've been wondering which way the girls entered the lake trail. Given that the bikes definitely wound up by the gate somehow, if our fisher king was on the north side, he would have seen (or had the opportunity to see) them if they had ridden in on the western side and gone counterclockwise around. There's a whole long straight stretch on the south side they'd have to cover to reach the evil corner. Its a clear view from one side of the lake to the other. Just saying.

If the bikes were staged, I think clearly the stager entered from the east side. He'd have to be an idiot to go in the other way. Too much risk involved.

I don't know what our fisher's lack of girls tells us, but I stand by my observations above.

I am interested in the kid fishing too.

 

[threecrazykids]

Very disturbing and had to ff through most of it. Sad thing is that these kinds of things happen in real life. My heart is breaking for those two little girls.......

That has to be one of the most disturbing videos I've ever seen in my life. Fact or fiction it is terrifying. I agree with whomever said they were concerned for the people who created this movie.

Yes, it happens every day and yes these sick people exist, but my God, seeing this literally made me sick to my stomach during the last 30 mins. WTF is wrong with people...mentally disturbed, sick in the head doesn't even BEGIN to describe these people!!

 

[Aunt B]

The 2010 statistics involving child abductions are startling! Here is the link to the full article from which the stats listed afterwards were found:

~~Fair use for educational and conversational purposes~~

http://www.intellicorpintouch.com/child-abduction-statistics.aspx

The article states that only 1.4% of ALL child abductions are stranger abductions. That means 98% + of all child abductions occur through personal contacts.

&#8226;Based on the identity of the perpetrator, there are three distinct types of kidnapping: kidnapping by a relative of the victim or "family kidnapping", kidnapping by an acquaintance of the victim or "acquaintance kidnapping&#8221;, and kidnapping by a stranger to the victim or "stranger kidnapping&#8221;.

&#8226;Acquaintance kidnapping involves a comparatively high percentage of juvenile perpetrators, has the largest percentage of female and teenage victims, is more often associated with other crimes (especially sexual and physical assault), occurs at homes and residences, and has the highest percentage of injured victims.

&#8226;Stranger kidnapping victimizes more females than males, occurs primarily at outdoor locations, victimizes both teenagers and school-age children, and is associated with sexual assaults in the case of girl victims and mostly robberies in the case of boy victims.

&#8226;In 80 percent of abductions by strangers, the first contact between the child and the abductor occurs within a quarter mile of the child's home.

&#8226;Most potential abductors grab their victims on the street or try to lure them into their vehicles.

 

[Thespyma]

I watched it without downloading. Skipped through a lot of it as it's not exactly Oscar material

I didn't have to download either, thank goodness. I do not trust downloads that I do not actually seek out and know are safe from trojans, spyware, etc.
As for the movie. It seems a lot of viewers commenting believe the footage was actually real abduction footage. It is not. The story touts itself as "based on a true story". It is loosely based on certain pieces of 7 abductions. I should have skipped through parts. I agree with you on it being not Oscar material.

 

[Confusion]

No one has been named a suspect or person of interest so this can not be discussed this way. You can link to and discuss registered sex offenders as long as they are in the same area.

No rumors and facts must be linked to from MSM's.

Ima

No disrespect intended, but how can we possibly discuss this if the only scenarios we're allowed to talk about are stranger abductions? I really don't understand how discussing the possibliity of it being someone who had groomed one of the girls, was a possible friend of someone close by, or someone who was familiar but not known to the girls points at any particular person. I can understand most of the others being snipped.

 

[Thespyma]

I wouldn't recommend watching Megan is Missing. It's a bit like The Blair Witch Project ... low budget, claims to be based on fact ... but it's just fiction with a really ugly story.

Thank you button just wasn't enough. I wanted my hr and a half back.

 

[callyn]

I didn't have to download either, thank goodness. I do not trust downloads that I do not actually seek out and know are safe from trojans, spyware, etc.
As for the movie. It seems a lot of viewers commenting believe the footage was actually real abduction footage. It is not. The story touts itself as "based on a true story". It is loosely based on certain pieces of 7 abductions. I should have skipped through parts. I agree with you on it being not Oscar material.

I noticed the video of first abduction was copied from the Carlie Brucia video. I guess I'm old and jaded, it was so poorly done that it didn't really affect me much.

ETA: I love your signature