IA IA - Elizabeth Collins, 8, & Lyric Cook, 10, Evansdale, 13 July 2012 - #15

[SapphireSteel]

From what I can see of the post, there is a phrase "Missing Iowa Girl's Mother Searching for Tips". Seems to me if you Google that phrase, you'll find the article. JMO

ETA: I found it by Googling it just now. But I don't know how reliable it is, since it is from a source not allowed here on WS.

Didn't work. Could find no article.

 

[nikb]

If the time is 12:19 plus 6 minutes to ride their bikes without having to stop on the way, that puts them there at 12:25. You are saying they have enough time to jump off their bikes, disappear into the woods or be along the shore, and 2 minutes later...the cyclist is at the WC making the phone call. Nope. That dog don't hunt. MOO

IIRC the timestamp is 12:11, and the 8 minutes slow led to the 12:19 time.

 

[Aunt B]

You don't think a predator who has probably done this before would think to dump the bikes close to the lake to throw off an investigation? Of course they would! Posters here who are not LE have thought of it... why not a predator?

Posters here have thought of it *in retrospect*. I think that's quite a bit different than somebody thinking to do it beforehand in order to try to lead an investigation in a direction away from themselves (the perp). To be honest, I think it's a LOT different, in fact.

I don't feel the bikes were staged. The point I was simply making was that, in my humble opinion, it would be very very unlikely for a perp to think of something like that ahead of time...with the express intent of throwing off an investigation...unless they were a person who was far more experienced with how missing person's investigations work than the general public is.

It's just my opinion, though. It's not like it changes the facts, whatever the facts actually are. I'd gladly have ALL of my opinions thrown right back in my face and listen to a gazillion insults of "I told you so!", if it would mean these girls could just go home to their families and be okay.

 

[Marilynilpa]

I looked up this article again re: Mr. Pahl and his statement about the video camera being 8 minutes slow. Here's the link in case anyone else wants to read it.

http://wcfcourier.com/news/evansdal...cle_c7394e3c-d6a6-11e1-a4f3-0019bb2963f4.html

 

[cindysue]

I don't see why they would need to put the bikes on the bike trail itself if they were staged, why not in the wooded area, making it look like they wandered off. Another problem I have with stageing is the scent dogs placing them there.. But even tho I have problems with them going to the lake and disappearing in such a short window of time, the biggest question in my mind that I don't think anyone has brought, if the girls had planned this trip to the lake beforehand (which was my thought all along btw) then why did they for 45mins? Iirc stay right there close to home, they did what they were supposed to do for a full 45 mins, then all of a sudden a rush to the lake. Now to me that doesn't add up either.

 

[Sunlight]

Follow my thinking here -

Ignore the clocks for one second, let's say they're all wrong and the FBI knows it, but they have blurred/hidden this fact for the sake of the investigation.

Taking our own personal attempts at synchronising clocks out, what do you have left?

Mr G sighting the bikes AROUND 12.20.

This we know as close to being a fact as it gets.

The alternative is, he is LYING.

We know he would be lying as his daughter has gone so far as to state she spoke to him, confirm WHEN she spoke to him, and WHERE he said he was when she spoke to him.

TG being incorrect about seeing the bikes implies that not only is he being WILFULLY INCORRECT (eg lying) about the sighting, it implies his daughter is lying/incorrect as well.

We know that TG is in no way suspect, is in fact a highly regarded member of the community.

So...his sighting is either truthful, or not truthful. It's as simple as that.

Common sense says it's truthful.

I would really have to disregard what the daughter has said. She wasn't there. She saw nothing. She spoke with him on the phone. He is her father. It is all hearsay.

We have to go with what Mr. G states he saw and what he states he did, and where he states he was. That is all we can do. None of that means that anyone is lying.

MOO

 

[otto]

Follow my thinking here -

Ignore the clocks for one second, let's say they're all wrong and the FBI knows it, but they have blurred/hidden this fact for the sake of the investigation.

Taking our own personal attempts at synchronising clocks out, what do you have left?

Mr G sighting the bikes AROUND 12.20.

This we know as close to being a fact as it gets.

The alternative is, he is LYING.

We know he would be lying as his daughter has gone so far as to state she spoke to him, confirm WHEN she spoke to him, and WHERE he said he was when she spoke to him.

TG being incorrect about seeing the bikes implies that not only is he being WILFULLY INCORRECT (eg lying) about the sighting, it implies his daughter is lying/incorrect as well.

We know that TG is in no way suspect, is in fact a highly regarded member of the community.

So...his sighting is either truthful, or not truthful. It's as simple as that.

Common sense says it's truthful.

I suppose the difference is that I'm looking at the video time as the first confirmation of the girls timeline. The camera time is 12:11 and the owner has stated that the camera is 8 minutes slow. That means the true time that the girls were seen was at 12:19.

A cyclist that saw bikes at 12:20 a distance of 1.5 miles away cannot have seen the same bikes.

 

[CoeTrawk]

Thanks for the reminder. I do believe him with one exception - is it really THAT hard to bike a mile in 8 minutes? If the abduction was quick and/or they were riding somewhere they planned to leave their bikes, I just don't think it'd take all that long. MOO

No, it isn't hard to ride a bike a mile in 8 minutes! I think anybody could do it. That quote has always gotten me. I ran track back in the good old days so running paces are drilled into my head, you might say LOL. Add a bike to the equation and 8 minutes for a mile should be a cinch, even for children.

 

[SapphireSteel]

Posters here have thought of it *in retrospect*. I think that's quite a bit different than somebody thinking to do it beforehand in order to try to lead an investigation in a direction away from themselves (the perp). To be honest, I think it's a LOT different, in fact.

I don't feel the bikes were staged. The point I was simply making was that, in my humble opinion, it would be very very unlikely for a perp to think of something like that ahead of time...with the express intent of throwing off an investigation...unless they were a person who was far more experienced with how missing person's investigations work than the general public is.

It's just my opinion, though. It's not like it changes the facts, whatever the facts actually are. I'd gladly have ALL of my opinions thrown right back in my face and listen to a gazillion insults of "I told you so!", if it would mean these girls could just go home to their families and be okay.

UNLESS - everything was planned ahead of time, to the minutest detail.

In this day of CSI and the Investigation Channel, some people are very savvy indeed.

Or think they are....

:banghead:

 

[SapphireSteel]

I suppose the difference is that I'm looking at the video time as the first confirmation of the girls timeline. The camera time is 12:11 and the owner has stated that the camera is 8 minutes slow. That means the true time that the girls were seen was at 12:19.

A cyclist that saw bikes at 12:20 a distance of 1.5 miles away cannot have seen the same bikes.

Just suspend your clock arithmetic for one minute...that's what's holding you up.

Just assume that you can't know definitely what the clock gap is...should be easy, as we DON'T.

Assume there is at least an 8 minute time frame, if not more.

It makes PERFECT timing.

It's like OJ holding that damn glove up in court...see, it doesn't fit...what about if you wriggle it a little bit?...there...fits like a (ahem) glove.

No pun intended.

 

[iamnotagolem]

Let's pretend for a minute that TG doesn't exist, or that he saw the bikes a different day.

Girls go past CCTV at 12:11-12:19 depending which one works for your theory.

Let's say at the end of the street sits a van/truck/any sort of kid/bike hauler, perp snatches up the girls and subdues them in the vehicle of his choosing, throws the bikes in, too. Drops the bikes off at the lake and leisurely drives home with his prizes.

 

[cindysue]

Let's pretend for a minute that TG doesn't exist, or that he saw the bikes a different day.

Girls go past CCTV at 12:11-12:19 depending which one works for your theory.

Let's say at the end of the street sits a van/truck/any sort of kid/bike hauler, perp snatches up the girls and subdues them in the vehicle of his choosing, throws the bikes in, too. Drops the bikes off at the lake and leisurely drives home with his prizes.

Yes but why that spot and what about the scent dogs tracking them to spots close to area . I mean why not just leave them by the pump house thing. Easier

 

[otto]

No, it isn't hard to ride a bike a mile in 8 minutes! I think anybody could do it. That quote has always gotten me. I ran track back in the good old days so running paces are drilled into my head, you might say LOL. Add a bike to the equation and 8 minutes for a mile should be a cinch, even for children.

Okay ... let's add the fact that one bike is a BMX and the other is ridden by a 4'11" girl that weighs 145 pounds. For me, that means they are riding slower than the average cyclist.

Additionally, there are 8 minutes between the time on the video camera (12:19) and the time that the cyclist called his daughter from the washroom (12:27), but the cyclist estimated that he saw bikes at 12:20. That makes 1 minute between the video time and the cyclist time.

 

[otto]

Just suspend your clock arithmetic for one minute...that's what's holding you up.

Just assume that you can't know definitely what the clock gap is...should be easy, as we DON'T.

Assume there is at least an 8 minute time frame, if not more.

It makes PERFECT timing.

It's like OJ holding that damn glove up in court...see, it doesn't fit...what about if you wriggle it a little bit?...there...fits like a (ahem) glove.

No pun intended.

If we adjust the video time to 12:11 and ignore the fact that the owner stated that the video time is slow, then were does the 8 minutes come from? 12:11 - 12:20 is 9 minutes, 12:11 - 12:27 is 16 minutes.

 

[Marilynilpa]

Let's pretend for a minute that TG doesn't exist, or that he saw the bikes a different day.

Girls go past CCTV at 12:11-12:19 depending which one works for your theory.

Let's say at the end of the street sits a van/truck/any sort of kid/bike hauler, perp snatches up the girls and subdues them in the vehicle of his choosing, throws the bikes in, too. Drops the bikes off at the lake and leisurely drives home with his prizes.

The only problem I continue to have with this theory is, why drop the bikes off at the lake when they could have been left anywhere, certainly somewhere more accessible than the lake trail.:waitasec:

Why drop off the bikes at all? Either leave them where the girls were abducted, or put them in the vehicle and dump the bikes later. Why take the time, after abducting two girls, to drive to the lake and discard the bikes?

That is why I have a hard time with the staged bikes theory. JMO

 

[SapphireSteel]

Okay ... let's add the fact that one bike is a BMX and the other is ridden by a 4'11" girl that weighs 145 pounds. For me, that means they are riding slower than the average cyclist.

Unless they are going downhill? Or even have a back wind?

Additionally, there are 8 minutes between the time on the video camera (12:19)

Allegedly. Have you seen this confirmed by LE?

and the time that the cyclist called his daughter from the washroom (12:27),
but the cyclist estimated that he saw bikes at 12:20.

ABOUT 12.20!!!!

That makes 1 minute between the video time and the cyclist time.

I would love to see a link where LE confirms the cctv time difference?

 

[cindysue]

And also if they DID ride there bikes there, the perp would have to be just waiting for the instant they arrived imo, cause how would you just happen to bump into a predator at that spot, it would be to much of a coincidence IMO.. And I don't know why they rode around their neighborhood for 45 mins then decided to rush to the lake knowing they would have no time to spend there cause they needed to be back by 1:00.

 

[otto]

I would love to see a link where LE confirms the cctv time difference?

It's probably in the same place as the link where LE confirms the tip from the swerving cyclist. Neither exists. The only tip the FBI have confirmed is that a person that regularly runs on the trail did see the bikes and was able to provide an accurate time.

 

[Marilynilpa]

And also if they DID ride there bikes there, the perp would have to be just waiting for the instant they arrived imo, cause how would you just happen to bump into a predator at that spot, it would be to much of a coincidence IMO.. And I don't know why they rode around their neighborhood for 45 mins then decided to rush to the lake knowing they would have no time to spend there cause they needed to be back by 1:00.

You bring up a point I hadn't thought about too much - what were the girls doing before going to the lake.

IMO, they were killing time before meeting someone at the lake. (There, I've said it and finally committed myself to a theory!)

ETA: If the girls were going to meet someone, I don't think this would have been set up via Facebook because LE/FBI have the computers and would easily be able to determine who Lyric had been communicating with. And I don't believe Elizabeth had a FB page. JMO

 

[SapphireSteel]

It's probably in the same place as the link where LE confirms the tip from the swerving cyclist. Neither exists. The only tip the FBI have confirmed is that a person that regularly runs on the trail did see the bikes and was able to provide an accurate time.

The "swerving cyclist" spoke to the media himself.

The "swerving cyclist" is TG, and he either saw what he said he saw, or is lying.

The weak point here is the clock synchronisation, not TG who by all accounts is a credible witness.

I am kind of dumb where numbers and clocks are concerned, so it is much much easier for me to discount other posters second hand attempts to work out differences, than it is to discount the words of not only TG, but also Mr P who seems to think the girls are suggested to have biked that far in 8 minutes.

By discounting Mr G, you are by association also discounting Ms G and Mr P...and by association, Mr C.

All FOUR uninvolved, credible, on the spot, no ulterior motives.

I just don't see how you can do that...:dunno: