IA IA - Elizabeth Collins, 8, & Lyric Cook, 10, Evansdale, 13 July 2012 - #18

[CHERIE.T]

Im pretty sure that i read here Lyric had only been with Elizabeth for the past week or so not the entire summer! Because Grandmother was helping Elizabeths mom.

I know Lyric lived with Tammy when mom was away!

That is correct and is in one of the articles posted here.

 

[CHERIE.T]

Exactly my thoughts. Which is why I've tried to convince myself that the security camera was actually off by one hour & 8 minutes.

Hi:seeya: fox bluff,you think the clock was off an hour and eight minutes?
Wouldnt the cameras owner and LE corrected the time line by now?
:moo:

 

[CHERIE.T]

If LE has all of the pieces, wouldn't they have arrested someone, or at least located the girls?

IMO, the timeline (not LE's, the one pieced together by witnesses and video) doesn't seem to fit together. Bikes were seen, girls were seen, but were they the right bikes and the right kids? Did a witness make a mistake in what he/she/they saw? I can speculate, but I have nothing factual to go on. JMO

"IF LE HAS ALL THE PIECES, WOULDN'T THEY HAVE ARRESTED SOMEONE, OR AT LEAST LOCATED THE GIRLS?"
Weeeellllll, I asked that here last week....got a few :maddening: comments. Lol

Imoo the timeline doesn't fit what we've been told.... it's off...... way off.
Did grandmother WC begin worrying later than what's been reported? Idk

 

[CHERIE.T]

Yes, it is sad, but I don't think the case is cold, and I also don't think they are "gone without a trace." There is a trace of them somewhere, we just don't know what that is.
Cases don't go cold in 2 months. Some investigations are still ongoing years later.

Sadly I disagree. There are cases I can think of that were cold 2 months after the crime happened.....and are still cold years later. :moo:

 

[CHERIE.T]

The real question is: Where would Nancy Drew find the girls?

Would Nancy Drew go along with the thought that missing children are nearly always found within 1-2 miles of their home? :moo:

 

[CHERIE.T]

Exactly.

I'll bet that the camera is what will be the catalyst in this case one way or another at some point in time. In my several scenarios...it is what can catch each hypothetical perp (and I have lots of potential hypothetical perps in various configurations in mind) Where the girls are, remains to be known. They are where they are. Nancy Drew would unlock the key to the mystery of the camera timing. MOO

Can't camera-video specialist digitalize the film for clarity?

 

[CHERIE.T]

Isn't there anyone else, or any vehicle on the camera? If there were a vehicle that could be identified and that driver had recently left a nearby store, the their receipt could help pinpoint the accuracy of the camera, correct? I can't believe there is nothing else on there that can be used to verify the time stamp.

Excellent question.

 

[eileenhawkeye]

Sadly I disagree. There are cases I can think of that were cold 2 months after the crime happened.....and are still cold years later. :moo:

Back, in December, I posted this on Baby Lisa's forum about whether her case is a cold case...

I went through a few pages of cases, where the victim was found murdered, on the Located forum, to see how long it took until an arrest (if any):

Arrest within 2 weeks of victim being reported missing
Jorelys Rodriguez: 5 days until arrest
Lauren Giddings: 9 days until arrest
Skyler Kauffman: 2 days until arrest
Tyler Dasher: 1 day until arrest
Yashanee Laface Vaughn: 12 days until arrest
Lauren Ackerson: 7 days until arrest
Sian O'Callaghan: 5 days until arrest
Mariha Trenice Smith: 13 days until arrest
Breann Rodriguez: 7 days until arrest

Unsolved
Celina Cass: unsolved for 4 months so far
Sonia Varaschin: unsolved for 15 months so far
Morgan Harrington: unsolved for 2+ years so far
Sylar Newton: unsolved for 15 months so far
Phylicia Barnes: unsolved for almost a year
Kera Freeland: unsolved for 7 months
Lachlan Cranswick: unsolved for 10 months
Kelly Catalano: unsolved for 10 months

1 month or longer until arrest
Michelle Le: 3 months until arrest
Alexis Rasmussen: 2 months until arrest
Kenia Monge: 4 months until arrest
Mackenzie Cowell: 7 months until arrest

ALL the unsolved cases are still unsolved...and you can add (+8 months) to the total time they've been unsolved.

So as you can see, if a case isn't solved relatively quickly, the chance of it ever being solved decreases greatly. We do not see many cases on WS where there are arrests months, or even years, later.

 

[GrainneDhu]

Back, in December, I posted this on Baby Lisa's forum about whether her case is a cold case...



ALL the unsolved cases are still unsolved...and you can add (+8 months) to the total time they've been unsolved.

So as you can see, if a case isn't solved relatively quickly, the chance of it ever being solved decreases greatly. We do not see many cases on WS where there are arrests months, or even years, later.

To be honest, at this point I'd be more than happy without an arrest so long as the girls are found.

Law enforcement is always a game of catch up, so everything can be done perfectly and no arrest ever results. Of course, there's no such thing as a perfect investigation! Sometimes there's one big flaw, sometimes it's a series of small flaws. Many times, the flaw or flaws are not apparent until the mystery is suddenly resolved. For example, once Gary Ridgway was arrested, it was easy to look back and see screaming red flags that were missed but they were not obvious at the time.

Sadly, I believe the girls will not be found alive.

 

[SapphireSteel]

<sarcasm on>Okay, I confess. I AM THE FOREIGN FACTION!!! Why yes, even though my whole family saw me in Iowa City on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day in 1996, I left that note!!!

The super powers of statement analysis say it must be so.<sarcasm off>

Yeah. I didn't suddenly start using the word 'hence' in 1996, I've used it for a long, long time. I think it's a result of reading many, many English murder mysteries.

I use it stylistically to indicate to my poor readers that I am about to get to a point in my horrible rambling sentences.

Hey, if I had been in Boulder in 1996, that would mean I wasn't guilty of giving my nephews one Christmas's worth of presents my sister would rather I had not. Auntie Grainne had a reputation to uphold as the aunt who gave kids presents that were noisy, explosive, maddening or all three.

Maybe I should confess!

I don't want to sound picky and may be a bit o/t but I have to point out a small error...all goes to statement analysis and the meaning of words and how we use them.

Even though we live on the other side of the globe, the way we use the English language and construct our sentences is pretty much the same.

I think the point of the the "hence" word is because both in the ransom note, and in Patsy's other writings, it appears as "and hence", which is grammatically incorrect, and an odd way of framing the word.

If you use "hence" in your own sentences, you will likely use it correctly. In fact, dig out some of your writings and check. I will almost guarantee you have never used "and hence".

The correct useage is "so hence," or simply, "hence", not "and hence".

Try it yourself. Construct a sentence, any sentence, using either "hence" or its more common equivalent, "therefore"

You do not normally say,

the cat bit the dog, and therefore he ran away.

You would say

1. The cat bit the dog, and he ran away (no therefore/hence required at all)

2. The cat bit the dog, therefore/hence he ran away (no and at all)

3. The cat bit the dog, so he ran away (no and, or therefore/hence)

or even

4. The cat bit the dog, so therefore/hence he ran away. (no and)

Sentence one (and therefore/hence) makes no sense and would not ordinarily be used, by anyone. It even sounds wrong. It is difficult to compose a sentence using this phrase, because it is grammatically incorrect. Being used at least twice by PR that we know of, indicates that this is a personal linguistic quirk. Not quite solid evidence, but so rare as to be statistically UNLIKELY that anyone else in the house that night (known or unknown) would use it.

 

[SapphireSteel]

Back, in December, I posted this on Baby Lisa's forum about whether her case is a cold case...



ALL the unsolved cases are still unsolved...and you can add (+8 months) to the total time they've been unsolved.

So as you can see, if a case isn't solved relatively quickly, the chance of it ever being solved decreases greatly. We do not see many cases on WS where there are arrests months, or even years, later.

There is a difference between "unsolved" and "unproven".

Some of the cases you have named as being unsolved have POI's or known suspects (usually family/step parent), just no PROOF.

Casey Anthony is a perfect example.

:banghead:

 

[Thespyma]

I used to work as an investigator and my gut is screaming at me on this one...it's so hard to put into words what instinct is if someone else doesn't share it.

You just KNOW. Or at least, think you do. In my case, I had a 99% hit rate...basically, I could tell when people were lying, even over the phone.

Of course investigations can be steered in entirely the wrong direction this way, too, just look at Riley Fox.

I know the feeling. It is a must to know when people were lying. Many lives depend on it every day. Lots of similarities between you and I, I imagine. Just different locales.

 

[SapphireSteel]

I know the feeling. It is a must to know when people were lying. Many lives depend on it every day. Lots of similarities between you and I, I imagine. Just different locales.

Sounds like it.

What is your job?

I was a skip tracer in the finance and construction industries, (debt collection) and later worked for government.

 

[Thespyma]

Sounds like it.

What is your job?

I was a skip tracer (debt collection) and later worked for government in recoveries.

Government (Mil. Intelligence-Interrogations and CI). Studying Forensic Psychology in graduate school now.

 

[Thespyma]

Just have to say, I feel so helpless being so far away. I do well when in area and can feel out the people and location. This distance stuff is so frustrating. Just wish I was closer...I want to help find those girls and the person(s) responsible and put them where they belong...

 

[SapphireSteel]

Government (Mil. Intelligence-Interrogations and CI). Studying Forensic Psychology in graduate school now.

Oh wow, I'd love to do something like that. How interesting.

I was a civilian employee for the police too, at one point early on, typing up the interviews.

Mind boggling stuff.

The overwhelming impression is, most criminals are as dumb as ditchwater...which makes it kinda scary when one of them manages to pull off a seemingly "perfect" crime.

I'm glad I'm no closer to this crew. I feel sick just thinking about what has likely gone down.

seemingly o/t as well (but not)...does anyone here watch Sons of Anarchy?

 

[CHERIE.T]

Back, in December, I posted this on Baby Lisa's forum about whether her case is a cold case...



ALL the unsolved cases are still unsolved...and you can add (+8 months) to the total time they've been unsolved.

So as you can see, if a case isn't solved relatively quickly, the chance of it ever being solved decreases greatly. We do not see many cases on WS where there are arrests months, or even years, later.

Thanks so much for posting that eileenhawkeye.
Very interesting, very sad too.

 

[daisynae]

I don't want to sound picky and may be a bit o/t but I have to point out a small error...all goes to statement analysis and the meaning of words and how we use them.

Even though we live on the other side of the globe, the way we use the English language and construct our sentences is pretty much the same.

I think the point of the the "hence" word is because both in the ransom note, and in Patsy's other writings, it appears as "and hence", which is grammatically incorrect, and an odd way of framing the word.

If you use "hence" in your own sentences, you will likely use it correctly. In fact, dig out some of your writings and check. I will almost guarantee you have never used "and hence".

The correct useage is "so hence," or simply, "hence", not "and hence".

Try it yourself. Construct a sentence, any sentence, using either "hence" or its more common equivalent, "therefore"

You do not normally say,

the cat bit the dog, and therefore he ran away.

You would say

1. The cat bit the dog, and he ran away (no therefore/hence required at all)

2. The cat bit the dog, therefore/hence he ran away (no and at all)

3. The cat bit the dog, so he ran away (no and, or therefore/hence)

or even

4. The cat bit the dog, so therefore/hence he ran away. (no and)

Sentence one (and therefore/hence) makes no sense and would not ordinarily be used, by anyone. It even sounds wrong. It is difficult to compose a sentence using this phrase, because it is grammatically incorrect. Being used at least twice by PR that we know of, indicates that this is a personal linguistic quirk. Not quite solid evidence, but so rare as to be statistically UNLIKELY that anyone else in the house that night (known or unknown) would use it.

You are so cute! I just had to comment on your english lesson.:dance:

 

[SapphireSteel]

You are so cute! I just had to comment on your english lesson.:dance:

Lol@cute. I get called that all the time.

:blushing:

 

[Snowbunny]

Just have to say, I feel so helpless being so far away. I do well when in area and can feel out the people and location. This distance stuff is so frustrating. Just wish I was closer...I want to help find those girls and the person(s) responsible and put them where they belong...

I for one wish I didn't live so close. This kind of stuff doesn't usually happen up here and this is going on only a couple of hours from where I live. My heart is just breaking for these little girls. It frightening when its going on in your own backyard and you've got family living close to that area. I want who is responsible for this put behind bars and justice served.