IA IA - Elizabeth Collins, 8, & Lyric Cook, 10, Evansdale, 13 July 2012 - #18

[nursebeeme]

Both the Gosch case and now that of the missing Iowa cousins brought out hundreds of volunteers to search through backyards and nearby wooded areas.

Bob Duitch, who worked with Johnny’s mother, Noreen, at the time the boy disappeared, heard what had happened from a family friend.

“I searched just south of here at the railroad tracks and through the fields,” Duitch said last week, pointing south toward Ashworth Road.

Thirty years ago, the Gosch case gripped the local community and the state, just as the case of the missing Iowa cousins is now doing.

[/QUOTEhttp://www.desmoinesregister.com/article/20120904/NEWS01/309040025/1024/comm03/?odyssey=nav%7Chead

this article was dated today

 

[SapphireSteel]

Statement analysis is junk science, IMO, and I have never heard of a judge allowing any sort of testimony about it from "experts" in a courtroom.
Polygraphs are still not admitted into court as evidence and they've been around for many years. So I don't think I will live to see the day that these "experts" will be able to testify in court. As for helping to solve a case, LE often try to 'read' people, and sometimes they hit the nail on the head, other times they're wrong. People are unpredictable.

Criminal profiling has been used by the FBI for many years. It has worked for them with cases of serial killers, but I'm not sure it would apply in an abduction of children, since "snatch-and-grab" happens so quickly and in so many varying scenarios that, IMO, it would be hard to profile someone.

JMO, and all that.

People are predictable, a lot of the time. This is why we can't dismiss any resource, completely.

I started looking into it when I saw the clip of Patsy Ramsey saying "we loved that child".

I remember the first time I saw that, the hair stood up on the back of my neck and I had no idea why, as I didn't actually know too much about the case. I started looking into why I got the gut feeling I did when I head her say that.

Statement analysis is like the study of body language...one gesture or phrase on its own means nothing, but measure it all together and it cannot be disregarded entirely, as it is essentially the analysis of human communication. It is statistically based, therefore rooted in cold hard numbers.

Some of the premises I agree are far fetched, and I would disregard. Others, though, like the distancing language PR used, is the sort of thing that experienced LE most definitely take note of. You will often hear that investigators get a "gut" feeling or something didn't "feel right"...they are subconsciously picking up on a word, an unnatural response, an unusual effect, which leads them to a suspect.

As for profiling (SA is part of this greater science) one profiler even said that the suspect would work in/for/near law enforcement, drive a certain vehicle, be a certain age, and speak with a STUTTER...even though there were no witnesses.

How on earth?

But it was correct...BTK, IIRC. He was right under their noses the entire time. The profile was so precise it was largely disregarded at the time.

 

[GrainneDhu]

Statement analysis is junk science, IMO, and I have never heard of a judge allowing any sort of testimony about it from "experts" in a courtroom.
Polygraphs are still not admitted into court as evidence and they've been around for many years. So I don't think I will live to see the day that these "experts" will be able to testify in court. As for helping to solve a case, LE often try to 'read' people, and sometimes they hit the nail on the head, other times they're wrong. People are unpredictable.

Criminal profiling has been used by the FBI for many years. It has worked for them with cases of serial killers, but I'm not sure it would apply in an abduction of children, since "snatch-and-grab" happens so quickly and in so many varying scenarios that, IMO, it would be hard to profile someone.

JMO, and all that.

I agree on junk science, into which category I put polygraphs. Unbiased studies show that polygraphs are apparently only a little more accurate than flipping a coin (60% accuracy).

Criminal profiling has its ups and downs.

For one thing, due to its very nature, profiling is always a couple steps behind the present. It is based on intensive interviews of perpetrators, which means that the crimes it is based on are, at the very least, several years in the past.

For one example of the way profiling can be behind the times, there used to be an assumption that serial killers kept to their own race; white male perps killed white female victims and black male perps killed black female victims. Well, times have changed. It used to really raise an eyebrow to see a mixed race couple even walking down the street. That is no longer true and the result is, it made it easier for serial killers to cross racial lines without attracting undue notice.

Another area where profiling tends to fail is when it is assumed due to lack of forensic evidence that there is a single perp at work but the reality is that it is two people working together. The profiles produced in those cases tend to be way, way off base.

Profilers have had some amazing successes, which are highly promoted. Profilers have also had some really laughable misses, which tend not to attract much attention (the FBI never likes to draw attention to their own mistakes, which is why the FBI forensic lab scandal spread so widely).

 

[nikb]

All of that is hearsay...the 12:23-4 time is from a poster who says they spoke with a relative who heard it from...None of it is verified at all by LE.

You really have to stick with LE's timeline. Just sayin'. MOO (although it is interesting to toy with the times, of course)

BBM... you're right that it hasn't been verified by LE, but the 8 minute difference has been reported in MSM. I saw it here among other places:
http://m.wcfcourier.com/news/evansd...cle_c7394e3c-d6a6-11e1-a4f3-0019bb2963f4.html

But, today on re-reading the article I noticed something I hadn't before, also BBM:

Pahl is the manager of Cornbelt Auctions, 3520 Lafayette Road, where a 24-hour camera captured the footage from its position behind the building. The time and date stamp — 12:11 p.m. July 13 — fits the police timeline of the case.

However, Pahl said the camera’s clock is eight minutes slower than his U.S. Cellular phone.​

 

[Sunlight]

BBM... you're right that it hasn't been verified by LE, but the 8 minute difference has been reported in MSM. I saw it here among other places:
http://m.wcfcourier.com/news/evansd...cle_c7394e3c-d6a6-11e1-a4f3-0019bb2963f4.html

But, today on re-reading the article I noticed something I hadn't before, also BBM:

Pahl is the manager of Cornbelt Auctions, 3520 Lafayette Road, where a 24-hour camera captured the footage from its position behind the building. The time and date stamp — 12:11 p.m. July 13 — fits the police timeline of the case.

However, Pahl said the camera’s clock is eight minutes slower than his U.S. Cellular phone.​

So.....the police timeline "was" that 12:11 fit. So.....what happens to their timeline if the cellular phone is correct and the time really was 12:19? I would only imagine some red flags went up. One red flag is that the biker's timeline would appear incorrect and one red flag is that perhaps Pahl could appear to be suggesting an "adjustment" for his timeline purposes. Weird. MOO

 

[RNER]

BBM... you're right that it hasn't been verified by LE, but the 8 minute difference has been reported in MSM. I saw it here among other places:
http://m.wcfcourier.com/news/evansd...cle_c7394e3c-d6a6-11e1-a4f3-0019bb2963f4.html

But, today on re-reading the article I noticed something I hadn't before, also BBM:

Pahl is the manager of Cornbelt Auctions, 3520 Lafayette Road, where a 24-hour camera captured the footage from its position behind the building. The time and date stamp — 12:11 p.m. July 13 — fits the police timeline of the case.

However, Pahl said the camera’s clock is eight minutes slower than his U.S. Cellular phone.​

So, according to my "theory"...I will either disregard TG statement as being "reliable" or assume that it wasn't the girl's bikes that he saw.

IMOO...Too narrow of time frame for the girls get to the lake, park their bikes, walk into the woods or wherever, to be abducted, to be unseen and unheard. And if you are a "planted bike" believer...too narrow of time to abduct the girls, walk or drive to the lake, walk around to the bike path, "plant" the bikes, leave the area without being seen or heard.

 

[Sunlight]

It's that pesky camera thingy again. MOO

 

[Sunlight]

Nancy Drew would call this "The Key to the Pesky Camera Case".

 

[Confusion]

Nancy Drew would call this "The Key to the Pesky Camera Case".

The real question is: Where would Nancy Drew find the girls?

 

[Sunlight]

The real question is: Where would Nancy Drew find the girls?

Exactly.

I'll bet that the camera is what will be the catalyst in this case one way or another at some point in time. In my several scenarios...it is what can catch each hypothetical perp (and I have lots of potential hypothetical perps in various configurations in mind) Where the girls are, remains to be known. They are where they are. Nancy Drew would unlock the key to the mystery of the camera timing. MOO

 

[superbee]

sure does look like they have something!
and I think maybe someone is chasing them...

And I think you are right!

 

[superbee]

Exactly.

I'll bet that the camera is what will be the catalyst in this case one way or another at some point in time. In my several scenarios...it is what can catch each hypothetical perp (and I have lots of potential hypothetical perps in various configurations in mind) Where the girls are, remains to be known. They are where they are. Nancy Drew would unlock the key to the mystery of the camera timing. MOO

Love Nancy Drew. If we were flies on the wall in Hannah's kitchen, watching and listening to Nancy, Hannah and Carson Drew (who are enjoying some of Hannah's goodies) what are they saying about the camera?

Maybe the camera is the key, maybe not the camera timing, but what the camera shows?

 

[ozazure]

I was just checking in on this thread to see if there was any more info about these missing girls, sad to see nothing much has moved on. I am glad to see other people questioning statement analysis. While I think some principles of it have a lot of merit, in that how people describe circumstances, amount of time allocated to each time period, distancing language etc can offer information ... I am now scared to say I have washed my hands or had a shower, or switched on a light to check my child (eeek, I mean kid!) or god forbid one day the last time I see a family member I recall I said goodbye and I love you ...

Hope there is a break soon, these girls remind me of my daughter and niece in their dual friendship and cousinship.

 

[Thespyma]

People are predictable, a lot of the time. This is why we can't dismiss any resource, completely.

I started looking into it when I saw the clip of Patsy Ramsey saying "we loved that child".

I remember the first time I saw that, the hair stood up on the back of my neck and I had no idea why, as I didn't actually know too much about the case. I started looking into why I got the gut feeling I did when I head her say that.

Statement analysis is like the study of body language...one gesture or phrase on its own means nothing, but measure it all together and it cannot be disregarded entirely, as it is essentially the analysis of human communication. It is statistically based, therefore rooted in cold hard numbers.

Some of the premises I agree are far fetched, and I would disregard. Others, though, like the distancing language PR used, is the sort of thing that experienced LE most definitely take note of. You will often hear that investigators get a "gut" feeling or something didn't "feel right"...they are subconsciously picking up on a word, an unnatural response, an unusual effect, which leads them to a suspect.

As for profiling (SA is part of this greater science) one profiler even said that the suspect would work in/for/near law enforcement, drive a certain vehicle, be a certain age, and speak with a STUTTER...even though there were no witnesses.

How on earth?

But it was correct...BTK, IIRC. He was right under their noses the entire time. The profile was so precise it was largely disregarded at the time.

BBM above-

There is so much more to the fields of criminal profiling and statement analysis than just guesses or even educated guesses. It takes YEARS of training and experience which sadly, most smaller LE units cannot afford to give. One site mentioned that they can teach police interrogations in 5 days. 5 DAY!?!
It takes years to train a good interrogator. It takes intense study of different cultural norms and language/dialects in order to be passable. Then years more of experience to get to a high level of proficiency. The government spends over 2 years training each interrogator and more for dual MOS operatives. Statement analysis is not just taking a word or two (or more) and assuming. It is knowing from speech, inflections mannerisms, etc. for example what region someone is from , where they grew up during their formative years and even what culture they grew up in from watching and listening. It is possible for it to be effective but often is not due to the lack of attentiveness or experience of the observer. I do not think most of those observing this case can use statement analysis adequately but it does not mean it doesn't work if done properly by adequately trained and experienced personnel.
Bottom line is- when someone with a lot of training and experience says they have a "gut feeling", it usually means they have encountered similar cases and there experience is telling them.
:moo:

 

[TripleA]

Isn't there anyone else, or any vehicle on the camera? If there were a vehicle that could be identified and that driver had recently left a nearby store, the their receipt could help pinpoint the accuracy of the camera, correct? I can't believe there is nothing else on there that can be used to verify the time stamp.

 

[SapphireSteel]

BBM above-

There is so much more to the fields of criminal profiling and statement analysis than just guesses or even educated guesses. It takes YEARS of training and experience which sadly, most smaller LE units cannot afford to give. One site mentioned that they can teach police interrogations in 5 days. 5 DAY!?!
It takes years to train a good interrogator. It takes intense study of different cultural norms and language/dialects in order to be passable. Then years more of experience to get to a high level of proficiency. The government spends over 2 years training each interrogator and more for dual MOS operatives. Statement analysis is not just taking a word or two (or more) and assuming. It is knowing from speech, inflections mannerisms, etc. for example what region someone is from , where they grew up during their formative years and even what culture they grew up in from watching and listening. It is possible for it to be effective but often is not due to the lack of attentiveness or experience of the observer. I do not think most of those observing this case can use statement analysis adequately but it does not mean it doesn't work if done properly by adequately trained and experienced personnel.
Bottom line is- when someone with a lot of training and experience says they have a "gut feeling", it usually means they have encountered similar cases and there experience is telling them.
:moo:

I used to work as an investigator and my gut is screaming at me on this one...it's so hard to put into words what instinct is if someone else doesn't share it.

It's like a key, turning a lock. Everything just falls into place.

You just KNOW. Or at least, think you do. In my case, I had a 99% hit rate...basically, I could tell when people were lying, even over the phone.

Of course investigations can be steered in entirely the wrong direction this way, too, just look at Riley Fox.

 

[Sunlight]

Love Nancy Drew. If we were flies on the wall in Hannah's kitchen, watching and listening to Nancy, Hannah and Carson Drew (who are enjoying some of Hannah's goodies) what are they saying about the camera?

Maybe the camera is the key, maybe not the camera timing, but what the camera shows?

Yes! Certainly the common denominator is the last visual confirmed sighting of the girls, and who knows what else it picked up, since there was apparently a lot of stuff retrieved from it that we are not privy to at this time. The timing is important in that it either gives credibility or not to various timelines presented by people who appear as characters in this story, and it changes that credibility each time the timing changes. The thing is to watch when people change "their" timelines to match the camera, but that darn pesky camera is like a moving target. MOO

 

[GrainneDhu]

The real question is: Where would Nancy Drew find the girls?

Locked into the storm cellar of a deserted, spooky old farmhouse, hungry but otherwise oddly untraumatised (because no one ever ended up traumatised in the Nancy Drew books I read).

There would be lots of spiders.

 

[CHERIE.T]

IDK... It does seem that it was too easy without some planning, with that said sometimes things just fall into place whether the outcome is for positive reasons or sinister. When I first saw the video of the girls on bikes I thought dang they sure are in a hurry. Then as time went by and I watched it again and read that elizabeth's house was just up and across the street and said to myself they did not just get on those bikes from across and just up from the camera, they were at a full roll as in jmo (sneaking past the house) in the opposite direction or where granny last saw them. jmo If I have read correctly the girls knew that 1:30 they had to be home. iirc I know I heard/read that they checked in every 10-15 minutes, I call hogwash on that. jmo It is my opinion that the girls and the bikes were transported to the lake (could have been a van) only the bikes were left and the girls were kept.jmo Could have been one of the girls fell off the bike and someone offered them a ride home. idk

That's what I wanted someone to say! :blushing:
Imoo, The girls were hauling butt when they were caught on camera. I know that's probably been said here before ......along with the possibility that they were on a mission.
Good thought about one of the girls maybe falling and someone stopping to help.

 

[daisynae]

I used to work as an investigator and my gut is screaming at me on this one...it's so hard to put into words what instinct is if someone else doesn't share it.

You just KNOW. Or at least, think you do. In my case, I had a 99% hit rate...basically, I could tell when people were lying, even over the phone.

Of course investigations can be steered in entirely the wrong direction this way, too, just look at Riley Fox.

Hi, so what is you gut telling you about this case?
Do you have a suspect in mind?