IA IA - Elizabeth Collins, 8, & Lyric Cook, 10, Evansdale, 13 July 2012 - #18

[GrainneDhu]

BBM

I thought Lyric had lived with Elizabeth's parents while her mom was away, until Heather's health got bad and then grandma had custody????

In the first thread, there is a link to court documents showing that Grandma Cook was given custody of Lyric in 2007.

Heather Collins's heart problems did not happen until 2010.

 

[Sunlight]

Exactly my thoughts. Which is why I've tried to convince myself that the security camera was actually off by one hour & 8 minutes.

All of that is hearsay...the 12:23-4 time is from a poster who says they spoke with a relative who heard it from...None of it is verified at all by LE.

You really have to stick with LE's timeline. Just sayin'. MOO (although it is interesting to toy with the times, of course)

 

[Eileen730]

In the first thread, there is a link to court documents showing that Grandma Cook was given custody of Lyric in 2007.

Heather Collins's heart problems did not happen until 2010.

Now i thought Tammy had her!

 

[Marilynilpa]

<sarcasm on>Okay, I confess. I AM THE FOREIGN FACTION!!! Why yes, even though my whole family saw me in Iowa City on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day in 1996, I left that note!!!

The super powers of statement analysis say it must be so.<sarcasm off>

Yeah. I didn't suddenly start using the word 'hence' in 1996, I've used it for a long, long time. I think it's a result of reading many, many English murder mysteries.

I use it stylistically to indicate to my poor readers that I am about to get to a point in my horrible rambling sentences.

Hey, if I had been in Boulder in 1996, that would mean I wasn't guilty of giving my nephews one Christmas's worth of presents my sister would rather I had not. Auntie Grainne had a reputation to uphold as the aunt who gave kids presents that were noisy, explosive, maddening or all three.

Maybe I should confess!

Here is a link to Wikipedia regarding statement analysis:

Statement analysis - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

"Proponents say statement analysis has proven highly effective as a police interrogation technique, however critics argue that it encourages investigators to prejudge a suspect as deceptive and affirm a presumption of guilt before the interrogation process even begins. Statement analysis in general has been criticized as "theoretically vague" with little or no empirical evidence in its favor, and SCAN in particular has been characterized as "junk science" [1] with the Skeptic's Dictionary and Skeptical Inquirer magazine[4] classifying it as a form of pseudoscience.[2]"

I know that is going to anger at least one poster here, but my opinion is that statement analysis ranks right up there with criminal profiling - it works well in theory but falls apart in practice more times than not. JMO so please don't ask me for a link.

But at this point, I'd be willing to consult a voodoo priestess from Mars if it would shed any light on Lyric and Elizabeth's whereabouts.

 

[SapphireSteel]

What the courts ordered, and where Lyric actually lived, may be two different things.

Some families share the upbringing of the child in their own way...it sounds very much like the case here.

What I mean is, if Misty was in jail, then ALL her family stepped up to help...which is as it should be.

 

[SapphireSteel]

Here is a link to Wikipedia regarding statement analysis:

Statement analysis - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

"Proponents say statement analysis has proven highly effective as a police interrogation technique, however critics argue that it encourages investigators to prejudge a suspect as deceptive and affirm a presumption of guilt before the interrogation process even begins. Statement analysis in general has been criticized as "theoretically vague" with little or no empirical evidence in its favor, and SCAN in particular has been characterized as "junk science" [1] with the Skeptic's Dictionary and Skeptical Inquirer magazine[4] classifying it as a form of pseudoscience.[2]"

I know that is going to anger at least one poster here, but my opinion is that statement analysis ranks right up there with criminal profiling - it works well in theory but falls apart in practice more times than not. JMO so please don't ask me for a link.

But at this point, I'd be willing to consult a voodoo priestess from Mars if it would shed any light on Lyric and Elizabeth's whereabouts.

Take everything with a grain of salt, including statement analysis, msm, behavioural analysis, witness statements, criminal profiling, even DNA now (Jonbenet), lie detectors, parental reactions, sniffer dogs - each one apparently unreliable in their own way, as we have seen over and over.

All of these things are like part of a jigsaw...seemingly unrelated blobs of colour, nothing but a mess if viewed on piece at a time...but they all fit together to build up the mona lisa.

I like to put the pieces together in my mind (critical thinking), apply KISS, and there's my theory.


:waitasec:

 

[Marilynilpa]

All of that is hearsay...the 12:23-4 time is from a poster who says they spoke with a relative who heard it from...None of it is verified at all by LE.

You really have to stick with LE's timeline. Just sayin'. MOO (although it is interesting to toy with the times, of course)

After all of the discussions about paddleboats, confusing timelines, grainy videotape footage, etc., it all still comes down to what Abben said:

&#8220;We have their bicycles, and we have a purse. That&#8217;s all that we have, and that doesn&#8217;t tell me that they&#8217;ve been there, just that those items were there,&#8221; Abben said. Here's a link: http://wcfcourier.com/news/local/se...cle_18411a90-cd32-11e1-a656-0019bb2963f4.html

It seems like we don't know anything more now - two girls are missing and all we know is they left their bikes and Elizabeth's purse at the lake.

I, for one, will continue to believe that LE and FBI have much more information than we've been told and that they have an ongoing active investigation that will result in the discovery of Lyric and Elizabeth. JMO

ETA: I was jumping off your post Sunlight, thanks.

 

[SapphireSteel]

All of that is hearsay...the 12:23-4 time is from a poster who says they spoke with a relative who heard it from...None of it is verified at all by LE.

You really have to stick with LE's timeline. Just sayin'. MOO (although it is interesting to toy with the times, of course)

If you go with the official timeline, the girls disappeared between 12.15 and when the bikes were found around 4.

Why didn't the family locate them?

They began looking for them at or just after 12.30 and it's just not that big a town.

:dunno:

 

[Sunlight]

After all of the discussions about paddleboats, confusing timelines, grainy videotape footage, etc., it all still comes down to what Abben said:

“We have their bicycles, and we have a purse. That’s all that we have, and that doesn’t tell me that they’ve been there, just that those items were there,” Abben said. Here's a link: http://wcfcourier.com/news/local/se...cle_18411a90-cd32-11e1-a656-0019bb2963f4.html

It seems like we don't know anything more now - two girls are missing and all we know is they left their bikes and Elizabeth's purse at the lake.

I, for one, will continue to believe that LE and FBI have much more information than we've been told and that they have an ongoing active investigation that will result in the discovery of Lyric and Elizabeth. JMO

ETA: I was jumping off your post Sunlight, thanks.

Amen.

 

[Sunlight]

If you go with the official timeline, the girls disappeared between 12.15 and when the bikes were found around 4.

Why didn't the family locate them?

They began looking for them at or just after 12.30 and it's just not that big a town.

:dunno:

They weren't anywhere that "they" looked...and when the bikes were found..the girls weren't there either. That is "one" way of looking at it...

 

[SapphireSteel]

They weren't anywhere that "they" looked...and when the bikes were found..the girls weren't there either. That is "one" way of looking at it...

I think the girls were taken closer to 12.15 than say, 3pm.

I think the family would've found them if they were hanging out somewhere they shouldn't be.

I don't think Lizzie would have "lost track of time"...she'd been spoken to before, so had Lyric. Lyric had actually got in trouble for it, not long before. They had the phone, specifically to keep track of the time as it was not functional.

:cow:

 

[Marilynilpa]

Take everything with a grain of salt, including statement analysis, msm, behavioural analysis, witness statements, criminal profiling, even DNA now (Jonbenet), lie detectors, parental reactions, sniffer dogs - each one apparently unreliable in their own way, as we have seen over and over.

All of these things are like part of a jigsaw...seemingly unrelated blobs of colour, nothing but a mess if viewed on piece at a time...but they all fit together to build up the mona lisa.

I like to put the pieces together in my mind (critical thinking), apply KISS, and there's my theory.


:waitasec:

I knew I'd hear from you about this, LOL. You are absolutely right, everything should be taken with a grain of salt.

You liken this to a jigsaw, and I sure agree with that. I've been known to do a little critical thinking of my own, but unfortunately, no matter how hard I try putting the pieces of this sad puzzle together I never see a coherent picture. That's because, IMO, vital pieces are still missing.

I think KISS is a great concept, but sometimes things turn out not to be so simple. IMO

 

[SapphireSteel]

I knew I'd hear from you about this, LOL. You are absolutely right, everything should be taken with a grain of salt.

You liken this to a jigsaw, and I sure agree with that. I've been known to do a little critical thinking of my own, but unfortunately, no matter how hard I try putting the pieces of this sad puzzle together I never see a coherent picture. That's because, IMO, vital pieces are still missing.

I think KISS is a great concept, but sometimes things turn out not to be so simple. IMO

That's strange to me, I have all the pieces and I'm pretty sure LE does too.

It's just so obvious...to me anyway...but I think in a different way to most people.

I would love to discuss further but cannot due to tos...except to ask...what can't you fit together?

:dunno:

 

[foxbluff]

Probably because they've turned up since.

Kids are reported missing all the time, and mostly come back home soon after.[/quote]

bbm - yes, yes, yes...and that, IMH(umble)O, is exactly why LE deserves so much credit for "jumping all over" the missing person report to begin with!!!

And, let's admit, the fact that it was #1)two little girls missing instead of one, #2)on bikes rather than on foot, #3)living in two different households, and that one of the households had (according to a family member) been reported to LE as missing several days prior to subject reporting.

 

[LaylaD]

Okay, I am really confused about the posts a few pages ago saying how there are like 20 missing kids in Black Hawk County, because when I search missingkids.com for missing kids from Iowa, I only get 11 results.

They are:

Marc Allen (1986)
Elizabeth Collins (2012)
Lyric Cook (2012)
Kimberly Doss (1982)
John Gosch (1982)
Eugene Martin (1984)
Odalis Navarro-Aguilar (2012)
Erin Pospisil (2001)
Benjamin Roseland (2008)
Colleen Simpson (1975)
Kyanja Vanwey (2005)

There is a difference between being *reported* missing and *being* missing. I recognized at least one of the names/descriptions cited in the previous post from basement chatter - it was a mixup/miscommunication as to where the child was and not a true missing child. Without having read the article it sounds poorly researched.

 

[Marilynilpa]

That's strange to me, I have all the pieces and I'm pretty sure LE does too.

It's just so obvious...to me anyway...but I think in a different way to most people.

I would love to discuss further but cannot due to tos...except to ask...what can't you fit together?

:dunno:

If LE has all of the pieces, wouldn't they have arrested someone, or at least located the girls?

IMO, the timeline (not LE's, the one pieced together by witnesses and video) doesn't seem to fit together. Bikes were seen, girls were seen, but were they the right bikes and the right kids? Did a witness make a mistake in what he/she/they saw? I can speculate, but I have nothing factual to go on. JMO

 

[Sunlight]

That's strange to me, I have all the pieces and I'm pretty sure LE does too.

It's just so obvious...to me anyway...but I think in a different way to most people.

I would love to discuss further but cannot due to tos...except to ask...what can't you fit together?

:dunno:

Interesting. I can fit it together about 5 different ways. Most of the five are against TOS though. It truly depends upon the factual times of the video whether I look at one of 5 ways...lol.

 

[Wishbone]

So sad to see this case is so cold. Two gone without a trace...heartbreaking.

 

[TxLady2]

Here is a link to Wikipedia regarding statement analysis:

Statement analysis - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

"Proponents say statement analysis has proven highly effective as a police interrogation technique, however critics argue that it encourages investigators to prejudge a suspect as deceptive and affirm a presumption of guilt before the interrogation process even begins. Statement analysis in general has been criticized as "theoretically vague" with little or no empirical evidence in its favor, and SCAN in particular has been characterized as "junk science" [1] with the Skeptic's Dictionary and Skeptical Inquirer magazine[4] classifying it as a form of pseudoscience.[2]"

I know that is going to anger at least one poster here, but my opinion is that statement analysis ranks right up there with criminal profiling - it works well in theory but falls apart in practice more times than not. JMO so please don't ask me for a link.

But at this point, I'd be willing to consult a voodoo priestess from Mars if it would shed any light on Lyric and Elizabeth's whereabouts.

Statement analysis is junk science, IMO, and I have never heard of a judge allowing any sort of testimony about it from "experts" in a courtroom.
Polygraphs are still not admitted into court as evidence and they've been around for many years. So I don't think I will live to see the day that these "experts" will be able to testify in court. As for helping to solve a case, LE often try to 'read' people, and sometimes they hit the nail on the head, other times they're wrong. People are unpredictable.

Criminal profiling has been used by the FBI for many years. It has worked for them with cases of serial killers, but I'm not sure it would apply in an abduction of children, since "snatch-and-grab" happens so quickly and in so many varying scenarios that, IMO, it would be hard to profile someone.

JMO, and all that.

 

[TxLady2]

So sad to see this case is so cold. Two gone without a trace...heartbreaking.

Yes, it is sad, but I don't think the case is cold, and I also don't think they are "gone without a trace." There is a trace of them somewhere, we just don't know what that is.
Cases don't go cold in 2 months. Some investigations are still ongoing years later.