IA IA - Elizabeth Collins, 8, & Lyric Cook, 10, Evansdale, 13 July 2012 - #26

[threecrazykids]

I can't see any way for a 4'1", 8-year old child to ride a BMX more than a mile, ride around to the SE tip of the lake, drop her bike in the middle of the trail and simply vanish in less than 8 minutes.

The time for the video is 12:11 + 8 (for being slow). The earliest time for the cyclist reporting bikes on the trail is 12:27. Everything has to have happened in less than 8 minutes, and I just don't see that as a possibility.

Does it help if we don't count the "being slow" + 8? LE has never counted the being slow in the times they've released. We use it, but it muddies things even more.:banghead:

 

[callyn]

I think I figured out by reading from the last thread that SierraShelby said the bikes were facing north/south. The trail heads east/west so the bikes were not facing a direction of travel. Is that correct? That doesn't seem natural to me. That seems like they were staged.

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bbm
This makes me wonder if the girls were trying to turn around. Like they saw something ahead that scared them and they tried to turn their bikes around but they were accosted before they could get all the way around. They would have had to jump off and physically turn the bikes around on that path I think.

 

[otto]

Does it help if we don't count the "being slow" + 8? LE has never counted the being slow in the times they've released. We use it, but it muddies things even more.:banghead:

The times provided by police are 12:15 and 12:23 at Brovan.

 

[Marilynilpa]

I can't see any way for a 4'1", 8-year old child to ride a BMX more than a mile, ride around to the SE tip of the lake, drop her bike in the middle of the trail and simply vanish in less than 8 minutes.

The time for the video is 12:11 + 8 (for being slow). The earliest time for the cyclist reporting bikes on the trail is 12:27. Everything has to have happened in less than 8 minutes, and I just don't see that as a possibility.

You make a persuasive argument, IMO.

I think someone will disagree with your opinion that it isn't possible for the girls to get there within that time-frame, so it will be interesting to read the follow ups to your post. JMO

 

[JaimeInLA]

I can't see any way for a 4'1", 8-year old child to ride a BMX more than a mile, ride around to the SE tip of the lake, drop her bike in the middle of the trail and simply vanish in less than 8 minutes.

The time for the video is 12:11 + 8 (for being slow). The earliest time for the cyclist reporting bikes on the trail is 12:27. Everything has to have happened in less than 8 minutes, and I just don't see that as a possibility.

I agree. In order for it to work (either way -- staging or kidnapping at lake), we have to discount either the 12:11/12:19 time or the 12:27 time. We can't discount the 12:11/12:19 time, as it is on video. That means we have to discount the 12:27 time. There must be some mistake about TG seeing the bikes at that exact time.

 

[Marilynilpa]

Does it help if we don't count the "being slow" + 8? LE has never counted the being slow in the times they've released. We use it, but it muddies things even more.:banghead:

Heck, I don't know if anything will help this scrambled up timeline. JMO

 

[otto]

You make a persuasive argument, IMO.

I think someone will disagree with your opinion that it isn't possible for the girls to get there within that time-frame, so it will be interesting to read the follow ups to your post. JMO

I look forward to an explanation. The average speed of a child that age, based on a very small sample group, is 9 mph. Any theory that they could make the trip and vanish in less than 8 minutes also depends on the premise that the children knew exactly how to get from Brovan to the Lake and that they took a direct route ... but we know that they were not heading in the correct direction to go to the lake when they were last seen.

 

[Sere-nity]

IMO the only answer.

:ufo:

 

[threecrazykids]

The times provided by police are 12:15 and 12:23 at Brovan.

I have to be careful on how I say this:

I believe the 12:15 time to be an "about" time, not a "100%-certain-without-a-shadow-of-a-doubt" sighting EXACTLY at 12:15 sighting.

The only thing I've come to feel is certain (JMO) is that with the times LE has mentioned there has to be wiggle room.

I only say that because like you said...there is no way it happened in 8 mins if the sighting at Brovan AND the sighting at the lake are both valid.

I think there was more time than we are privy to...and LE knows it.

 

[otto]

I agree. In order for it to work (either way -- staging or kidnapping at lake), we have to discount either the 12:11/12:19 time or the 12:27 time. We can't discount the 12:11/12:19 time, as it is on video. That means we have to discount the 12:27 time. There must be some mistake about TG seeing the bikes at that exact time.

That time was apparently verified using a 12:28 cell phone call at the parking lot, so that's also assuming that it's possible to cycle from the SE tip of Meyers Lake, get to the parking lot, and make a phone call after having a drink in less than a minute.

 

[otto]

I have to be careful on how I say this:

I believe the 12:15 time to be an "about" time, not a "100%-certain-without-a-shadow-of-a-doubt" sighting EXACTLY at 12:15 sighting.

The only thing I've come to feel is certain (JMO) is that with the times LE has mentioned there has to be wiggle room.

I only say that because like you said...there is no way it happened in 8 mins if the sighting at Brovan AND the sighting at the lake are both valid.

I think there was more time than we are privy to...and LE knows it.

We've seen the time stamp on the video for ourselves, and we know that the time stamp on the video is 8 minutes slow, so there's not much room to change that time. On the other end, we have a cell phone call. I don't see any way to stretch out the time.

 

[threecrazykids]

We've seen the time stamp on the video for ourselves, and we know that the time stamp on the video is 8 minutes slow, so there's not much room to change that time. On the other end, we have a cell phone call. I don't see any way to stretch out the time.

I gotta remain quiet on this.

 

[JaimeInLA]

I have to be careful on how I say this:

I believe the 12:15 time to be an "about" time, not a "100%-certain-without-a-shadow-of-a-doubt" sighting EXACTLY at 12:15 sighting.

The only thing I've come to feel is certain (JMO) is that with the times LE has mentioned there has to be wiggle room.

I only say that because like you said...there is no way it happened in 8 mins if the sighting at Brovan AND the sighting at the lake are both valid.

I think there was more time than we are privy to...and LE knows it.

I think so too. But then how do we explain the surveillance video?

 

[JaimeInLA]

I gotta remain quiet on this.

It wasn't the girls on the bikes in the video?

 

[JaimeInLA]

Lol! I just had a vision of Wylma & Tammy riding past Cornbelt Auctions on the bikes, racing to that scary witch music from Wizard of Oz. hahahah

(note: I do NOT think this is what happened and I am not accusing them. Just brainstorming who else could have been on the bikes and this image popped into my head.)

 

[threecrazykids]

It wasn't the girls on the bikes in the video?

I think it's the girls on the video. :blushing:

 

[threecrazykids]

Lol! I just had a vision of Wylma & Tammy riding past Cornbelt Auctions on the bikes, racing to that scary witch music from Wizard of Oz. hahahah

(note: I do NOT think this is what happened and I am not accusing them. Just brainstorming who else could have been on the bikes and this image popped into my head.)

:floorlaugh::floorlaugh::floorlaugh:

 

[Marilynilpa]

Lol! I just had a vision of Wylma & Tammy riding past Cornbelt Auctions on the bikes, racing to that scary witch music from Wizard of Oz. hahahah

(note: I do NOT think this is what happened and I am not accusing them. Just brainstorming who else could have been on the bikes and this image popped into my head.)

And now, thanks to you, that image will be forever in my head!

 

[NWLady]

If LE could tell from that surveillance video that it was Elizabeth and Lyric on bicycles then they must have seen better visual of it then what has been posted in the media. I've never been convinced that anyone saw the two girls that day anywhere. There's too many inconsistencies and too many time lines that don't add up. There's lots of people that were questioned about their where-abouts that day and their stories don't even add up, so how can they remember where anybody else was or what they were doing or what they were supposed to be doing?!

O/T...My grandma taught my four brothers and I many important lessons while growing up, but one thing that has always proved to be valuable is....if you tell the truth ALL the time, then you don't have to remember which story and/or which person you told what to because the truth doesn't change!

 

[Marilynilpa]

We've seen the time stamp on the video for ourselves, and we know that the time stamp on the video is 8 minutes slow, so there's not much room to change that time. On the other end, we have a cell phone call. I don't see any way to stretch out the time.

LE has said the girls were seen at 12:15 and 12:23. Have they ever said the girls were seen at 12:19? I know we've all assumed it from the surveillance tape, but it isn't among the times released by LE (12:15, 12:23, and possibly 12:30-1:00). So where does the surveillance video timing fit into that?:waitasec: